Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Monroe SMCC Wins Championship Grind
November 29, 2019
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
DETROIT – If Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central could draw up the perfect game for its preferred style of play, it might look a lot like Friday’s Division 6 Final.
Yes, the Falcons defeated Maple City Glen Lake to win their first championship since 2014, so that makes it memorable no matter what. And sure, SMCC would’ve loved to score more – the offense averaged 34 points per game heading into the night.
But look past all of that and consider: The Falcons had 63 plays to Glen Lake’s 32, and ran the ball 58 times. They had 22 first downs to Glen Lake’s six. They had the ball nearly twice as long – 31:17 to 16:43 – and didn’t have one penalty called against them. And the defense posted its first shutout of the season.
Offensive efficiency and defensive prowess have been hallmarks of a program that was playing in its eighth MHSAA Final – and the victory was proof again that the workmanlike approach remains a viable a championship approach during an era dominated by wide-open and fast-paced attacks.
“It’s not really the score that we anticipated, but it’s OK – we’re a grinding team, we have faith in our defense and our offense to eat up time on the clock,” SMCC senior quarterback Wyatt Bergmoser said. “We just rep our plays, and if it does come down to the defense we let them do their thing and it’s not a big deal – we have trust in the other players on the field.
“We were on different teams (before high school) but we knew we’d come together and play together in the future, and that’s something we dreamed of and hoped for forever. As a kid, I went to the 2014 state championship game. I just remember sitting in the stands and thinking to myself, I want to be here one day. I want to be here with my friends, with my other players and grind it out and get a state championship for myself. And that’s what we did, and I love all my players and teammates for that.”
The Falcons finished 12-1, their only defeat this season 28-21 to Division 4 Milan in Week 3.
That close loss, which eventually decided the Huron League title, provided a lesson that would serve St. Mary as it worked to finish off its mission for the ultimate playoff prize.
SMCC led in the fourth quarter by a point, and punted on 4th-and-4 with just under seven minutes to play. Milan went ahead on the next possession, and the Falcons ran out of time.
On Friday, SMCC punted only twice and converted on four of five fourth-down tries, including two during a 14-play, 55-yard fourth-quarter possession that didn’t result in a score but did drain 7:48 off the clock. That possession also left Glen Lake to try to tie beginning at its own 7-yard line with 2:27 to play.
“Earlier in the year we were hitting some big runs, but three, four, five yards are great plays for our offense,” SMCC coach Adam Kipf said. “We don’t need to hit a home run. We don’t need to get 10 yards every time we touch it. But if we’re getting three yards a pop … 2½ yards, we’re in great position. We like to do that, and we’ll chew up 35, 36, 37 seconds on the play clock too, and that’s by design. We want to keep it out of their hands.”
The game’s lone score came on a Bergmoser six-yard touchdown run just under five minutes into the second quarter, which capped a 10-play, 94-yard drive lasting 5:22.
The Falcons ran for 249 yards total, led by senior Alex Morgan’s 123 on 22 carries. They held Glen Lake (12-2) to 127 yards total, 75 of it coming through the air on passes by senior quarterback Reece Hazelton. The Lakers got no deeper into SMCC territory than the 36-yard line.
“They were probably the biggest team we faced all year, since we’re pretty big ourselves,” Glen Lake junior receiver/defensive back Finn Hogan said. “It was a little different change of pace for us. It took a drive or two for us to get used to, and they capitalized.”
The seven points tied the fewest Glen Lake gave up in a game this season – seven times the Lakers gave up seven, and they allowed a solid 16.2 on average over the entire fall. Hogan and senior linebacker Jonathan Wright led Friday’s effort with 12 tackles apiece, and as a team Glen Lake had six tackles for loss.
Bergmoser also was his team’s high tackler with seven.
Glen Lake had last appeared in a Final in 2016, also finishing Division 6 runner-up that year. The Falcons, meanwhile, finished a rare 4-5 that fall, but came back with seven wins in 2017 and nine last season to set up this year’s run.
“Going into high school my freshman year, I knew we had a special group in our class. I think everyone knew we were special,” Morgan said. “My sophomore year we had 11 starters on the team that made the playoff run. Our junior year we had a ton of juniors starting on that team. So we had one goal in mind this senior year, and it was to be right where we are right now.”
PHOTOS: (Top) St. Mary’s Alex Morgan (26) is slowed by Glen Lake’s C.J. Helfrich (2) and Finn Hogan. (Middle) A Glen Lake defender works to bring down the Falcons’ Samuel Cousino.