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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Drive for Detroit: Week 7 in Review

October 14, 2019

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Shared, guaranteed, locked up and clinched outright are frequent and favorite verbs and phrases that begin appearing in "Drive for Detroit" this time of year. Automatic and additional qualifiers are regulars right now as well. 

You'll find all of them used a whole bunch in this week's review as the regular season continued to speed toward its conclusion.

A number of league championships were clinched, and many more teams claimed a first share of a title with the opportunity to win it outright over the next two weeks. And that playoff qualifier list is up to 110 teams in 11-player, with another 86 in with a win this week. 

"Drive for Detroit" is sponsored by MI Student Aid.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Beaverton 20, Clare 0 With their first win over Clare since 1990, the Beavers (7-0) are guaranteed a share of their second-straight league title and sit one more victory from claiming the Jack Pine Conference outright for the first time since 1989. Beaverton actually ended its JPC drought a year ago sharing the league title with Clare and Roscommon, but missed out on the outright championship thanks to a 21-2 loss to the Pioneers. Clare (6-1) hadn’t been shut out since a 2014 District Final. Click for more from the Midland Daily News and see highlights below from MI Sports Now.

Watch list Port Huron Northern 29, Port Huron 26 League title shares were earned in five of six divisions on the Macomb Area Conference, including the Blue where the Huskies (6-1) won their third straight Crosstown Showdown to take a one-game lead on Port Huron (5-2) and St. Clair Shores Lakeview with a league game to play.  

Remember this one Almont 28, Richmond 10 The Raiders locked up a share of the Blue Water Area Conference title by handing a first loss to the rival Blue Devils (6-1). Almont (7-0) can close out a second-straight outright championship this week against Yale. Richmond may await again in the playoffs, however.

More shoutouts Marine City 35, St. Clair 10 The Mariners (7-0) locked up the MAC Silver and sent St. Clair (6-1) into a tie for second place with Marysville, Marine City’s opponent this week. Fenton 20, Flushing 7 After a season finishing third, Fenton clinched its eighth league title in nine seasons, winning outright the first-year Flint Metro League “Upper” division made up of the league’s larger schools.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Detroit Catholic Central 20, Orchard Lake St. Mary's 14 A Week 6 loss to Warren De La Salle Collegiate nearly knocked the Shamrocks (4-3) out of Detroit Catholic League Central contention. But they came back to hand Orchard Lake St. Mary’s its lone defeat and earn a share of the title – along with a likely rematch with the Eaglets in two weeks. DCC scored the game’s final 20 points and held St. Mary’s (6-1) scoreless during the second half. Click for more from the Oakland Press.

Watch list Detroit Mumford 18, Detroit Renaissance 14 Three of four teams in the Detroit Public School League Division 1 shared the championship, and Mumford made that happen in this game after previously falling to Cass Tech, which had lost to Renaissance. Mumford and Renaissance could see each other again in two weeks in the PSL 1/2 championship game.

Remember this one Dearborn Fordson 33, Livonia Franklin 21 After losing its claim to first place last week against Belleville, Fordson (6-1) kept its hopes alive for a shared Kensington Lakes Activities Association East title by dealing the Patriots (6-1) their first defeat. Franklin faces Belleville this week with a chance to create a three-way shared championship between those two and the Tractors.

More shoutouts Walled Lake Western 40, South Lyon 10 The Warriors (6-1) faces rivals Northern and Central down the stretch, but moved into first place alone in the Lakes Valley Conference with South Lyon (6-1) hoping for help to get back into the title mix. Detroit U-D Jesuit 26, Detroit Loyola 8 The Cubs (5-2) finished an outright Catholic League AA championship run for their first league title since 1989, while sending Loyola to 3-4 and needing to win out for a chance at making the playoffs as an additional qualifier. Warren De La Salle Collegiate 22, Davison 0 For the second straight season the Pilots (4-3) stunned an undefeated Davison team, this time to also keep their playoff hopes alive. 

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER Breckenridge 32, Carson City-Crystal 0 Life for Breckenridge football changed drastically when the program moved to the Mid-State Activities Conference in 2016 (after going 0-9 overall in 2015). This win gave the Huskies their fourth straight outright league title and ran their league winning streak to 23. Breckenridge (6-1) outscored its four MSAC opponents this season by a combined 161-8 – and that’s with the Eagles (4-3) and Merrill both still pursuing automatic playoff bids. Click for more from the Mount Pleasant Morning Sun.

Watch list Beal City 14, Roscommon 12 The Aggies (7-0) won’t celebrate too much with surging McBain coming up this week, but they earned a share of the Highland Conference championship by edging Roscommon (1-6) in their closest game to date this fall.

Remember this one Mason 20, Williamston 9 The Bulldogs (7-0) have continued to march, now to their first league title since 2011, and with an opportunity to make another large statement this week against also-unbeaten Portland. Wiliamston (4-3) is another team now facing a must-win situation – but has undefeated Olivet and Pewamo-Westphalia left.

More shoutouts Howell 38, Canton 31 The Highlanders (4-3) still control their playoffs hopes, with rival Brighton up next, while Canton (3-4) will try to make the postseason for the 12th straight year but this time as an additional qualifier. Olivet 42, Lake Odessa Lakewood 0 The Eagles (7-0) also not only swept their league but dominated from start to finish, outscoring four Greater Lansing Activities Conference opponents by a combined 171-12.  

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Johannesburg-Lewiston 37, Harbor Springs 18 The Cardinals (7-0) guaranteed extending their reign in the Northern Michigan Football League Legacy, earning a share of the division title with a chance to win outright in two weeks against winless Indian River Inland Lakes. Johannesburg-Lewiston also finished a game ahead of Harbor Springs (5-2) a year ago after winning their meeting 18-15, but left no doubt this time with running back Logan Finnerty leading the way in a big way. Click for more from the Gaylord Herald Times.

Watch list Kingsley 53, Maple City Glen Lake 14 The Stags (7-0) took a week off from their pursuit of the NMFL Legends title to take on Leaders co-leader Glen Lake (6-1) – and should have even more statewide eyes turning their way after a one-sided result.

Remember this one Traverse City Central 43, Alpena 7 The Trojans (6-1) are back on top in the Big North Conference after back-to-back second-place finishes, earning a share of the title while putting Alpena (3-4) in a must-win situation as it looks to make the playoffs for the first time since 2004.

More shoutouts Charlevoix 22, Mancelona 20 The Rayders (5-2) did their part to set up this week’s Leaders-deciding matchup with Glen Lake, avenging last season’s loss to the Ironmen (4-3). Ogemaw Heights 32, Tawas 8 The Falcons (5-2) pulled another win closer to what would be their first playoff berth since 2013, while no doubt hampering a potential postseason return for Tawas (3-4).

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Addison 20, Grass Lake 16 Reigning Cascades Conference champion Grass Lake (6-1) rolled through most of its first six games but was brought nearly to a stop by Addison, which grabbed a share of the league title by shutting down a Warriors offense that was averaging 47 points per game. The Panthers (6-1) have bounced back well since losing opening night to Britton Deerfield and can finish an outright championship run this week against Napoleon. Click for more from the Jackson Citizen Patriot and see highlights below from JTV.

Watch list Clinton 44, Ottawa Lake Whiteford 20 Five of seven teams in the Tri-County Conference are still up for automatic playoff bids, and sitting on top is Clinton (7-0) with a share of the league title after beating three-time reigning TCC champion Whiteford (4-3).

Remember this one Reading 50, Jonesville 0 This shouldn’t put a damper on a great comeback season by Jonesville (5-2), but the Rangers (6-1) remain the force of the Big 8 Conference having clinched a share of a third-straight title and increased their overall league scoring margin this fall to 314-32.

More shoutouts Milan 22, New Boston Huron 21 The Big Reds (7-0) earned a share of the Huron League title with their closest win this fall, but face another tough opponent in Carleton Airport this week as they look to lock up the championship outright. Britton Deerfield 30, Royal Oak Shrine Catholic 14 The Patriots (4-3) kept their playoff hopes alive with a bit of a stunner, handing Catholic League Intersectional 2 co-leader Shrine (6-1) its lone defeat.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Battle Creek Lakeview 14, St. Joseph 0 Both of these teams could end the regular season as outright champions of their respective Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference divisions. And that would make this win even sweeter for East leader Lakeview, which posted its first shutout of the fall by shutting down an offense that was averaging 38 points per game. The Spartans (7-0) already own a share of their league title and face Kalamazoo Loy Norrix this week in hopes of wrapping things up outright. St. Joseph (6-1) will try to bounce back against DeWitt this week before meeting Portage Northern for the SMAC West title in Week 9. See below for highlights from FOX 17.

Watch list Kalamazoo United 14, Delton Kellogg 6 The scene might’ve been a little bleak after Kalamazoo United (4-3) opened this season with three defeats after last year’s 11-1 run. But the Titans have set themselves up as well as possible for a memorable finish, downing Delton (4-3) and with Constantine and Schoolcraft to finish as league title and playoff hopes hang in the balance.

Remember this one Coldwater 14, Parma Western 13 (OT) Jackson Lumen Christi has all but locked up their Interstate 8 Athletic Conference title, but these former contenders may have provided a preview of a playoff matchup to come.

More shoutouts Paw Paw 35, Vicksburg 6 Both have one more game to play, but it appears the Wolverine Conference championship is almost sure to be decided between undefeated Paw Paw and Edwardsburg, as both have now gotten past a major obstacle in Vicksburg (5-2). Niles Brandywine 44, Gobles 0 The Bobcats (7-0) are two wins against teams both 2-5 from a first perfect regular season since 1995 and have outscored their first seven opponents by a combined 344-33.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Marquette 28, Menominee 21 The Redmen (3-4) find themselves in a rare situation. They must win out to have a chance to make the playoffs as an additional qualifier. But with this victory over Menominee, they continue to sit alone atop the Great Northern Conference standings having beaten arguably the two other best teams in the league (Kingsford, like Menominee, is 4-3 and faces Marquette in Week 9). Click for more from FOX Sports Marquette and see a highlight below from the Marquette School Broadcast Program.

Watch list Ishpeming 28, West Iron County 0 The Hematites (5-2) moved into first place alone in the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Iron with not only their third win over West Iron over the last two seasons, but also their third shutout of the Wykons (5-2) during that time.

Remember this one Ishpeming Westwood 30, L'Anse 6 With Week 9 opponent Negaunee also surging, getting past L’Anse was key as Westwood (5-2) works for a third consecutive playoff appearance. The Purple Hornets (4-3) find themselves in the opposite spot, needing to win out against Iron Mountain and Calumet to guarantee returning to the postseason for the first time since 2013.

More shoutouts Iron Mountain 42, Hancock 6 The Mountaineers (7-0) moved to within a win of clinching a share of the West PAC Copper title, all the more impressive considering six of eight teams in the league are still in the hunt for automatic playoff berths – Hancock (4-3) among them. St. Ignace 22, Indian River Inland Lakes 14 The Saints (4-3) are seeking their first playoff appearance since 2016 and look good to qualify automatically with their final two opponents a combined 2-12.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Rockford 17, Hudsonville 7 Just as there’s something impressive in winning every game by a large margin, there can be something impressive in stringing together close victories – and the Rams (7-0) are shining at the latter. This was Rockford’s fourth win by 10 points or fewer while taking on a schedule that could end up including champions from three other leagues in addition to the other contenders in the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red. Rockford can clinch a share of its league’s title this week against Grandville, which is tied with Hudsonville (5-2) for second place. See below for highlights from State Champs Sports Network.

Watch list Byron Center 49, Zeeland East 7 The road doesn’t get easier this week with Hudsonville Unity Christian up next, but Byron Center is a step ahead after taking over the top spot alone in the O-K Green by handing this first league loss to the Chix (5-2).

Remember this one Reed City 34, Central Montcalm 6 The Coyotes got off to a rare start with their first league loss Week 3 since 2014. But they’ve stormed back into a tie for first in the Central State Activities Association Gold, this weekend handing co-leader Central Montcalm (6-1) its only defeat with one league game left for both teams.

More shoutouts Cedar Springs 44, Lowell 20 The Red Hawks (6-1) moved within a win of clinching the O-K White title by sending Lowell (4-3) out of first and into a tie for second place. Grand Rapids Christian 27, Grand Rapids South Christian 20 The Eagles (5-2) will face East Grand Rapids this week with a share of the O-K Gold title on the line after avenging last season’s lone league loss, to South Christian (3-4).

8-Player

HEADLINER Burr Oak 33, Tekonsha 18 The Bobcats (5-2) gave up their first points of this season in Southern Central Athletic Association B play – but also clinched the league title outright and guaranteed their winningest season since at least 2013. Burr Oak had lost six straight to Tekonsha (3-4), including 42-6 a year ago. Click for more from the Coldwater Daily Reporter.

Watch list Mesick 42, Brethren 12 The Bulldogs (6-1) claimed a share of the West Michigan D League championship with this victory over reigning champion Brethren (4-3), and with only winless Bear Lake left on the conference schedule.

Remember this one Hillman 38, Pellston 14 The Tigers (6-1) moved into first place alone in the Midwest Central Michigan Conference East by icing a Pellston offense that averaged 49 points per game during the team’s 6-0 start this fall.

More shoutouts Colon 55, Camden-Frontier 0 The Magi (7-0) made it 2-for-2 on league title runs since moving to 8-player, clinching the SCAA A with their ninth straight league win over two seasons. Pickford 46, Gaylord St. Mary 23 This game came together after both teams had an original opponent forfeit, and reigning Division 1 runner-up Pickford (6-1) appears revved for another long tournament run after slowing down a St. Mary offense that was averaging 59.9 points per game.

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PHOTO: A Port Huron Northern defender, right, pursues the ball carrier during a 29-26 win over rival Port Huron on Friday. (Photo by Delta Imaging.)