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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Drive for Detroit: Week 5 in Review

September 30, 2019

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

In case you missed it: The rain showed up again this weekend, turning the Week 5 football schedule into a two-day trudge for about 200 teams across Michigan.

But that’s not what we’ll remember most.

The midpoint of this regular season was filled with great rivalry matchups, many decided by only a few points and one that finished with a 3-2 score. We also saw marathons that had nothing to do with thunderstorms – like Livonia Franklin navigating three overtimes to get past rival Churchill and West Bloomfield needing a fourth to edge Lake Orion.

All of it served to set up what’s next to come – a raft of teams clinching league championships over the final month, and a number of teams this week joining our first playoff qualifiers of 2019: Berrien Springs Farmington, Flint Hamady and Jackson Lumen Christi.

"Drive for Detroit" is sponsored by MI Student Aid.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Frankenmuth 23, Saginaw Swan Valley 20 For the second straight week the Eagles (5-0) sent another Tri-Valley Conference East co-leader into second place, this time Swan Valley with a win that took two days to complete. The Eagles now sit alone atop the East standings with Freeland, Swan Valley (3-2) and this week’s opponent Essexville Garber all tied for second with one league loss. Click for more from the Saginaw News and see below for highlights from WJRT.

Watch list Harbor Beach 29, Ubly 14 The Pirates (5-0) pulled within a win of claiming a piece of the Greater Thumb Conference East title after sharing it last season and winning it outright in 2017. Harbor Beach is putting up numbers like its MHSAA title contending days of last season and earlier this decade, outscoring opponents by a combined 226-31. Ubly (4-1) hadn’t given up more than 19 in a game until this one and was averaging 40.5 ppg.

Remember this one Goodrich 32, Ortonville Brandon 26 The Martians (4-1) set up a title-deciding matchup with Lake Fenton this week in the Flint Metro League “Lower” division by handing Ortonville Brandon (4-1) its first defeat. Brandon shared last year’s Metro title when the league was still unified for football before adding schools (including Goodrich) and splitting into divisions for this fall.

More shoutouts Fenton 35, Flint Kearsley 13 The Tigers have emerged as the lone first-place team in the Metro League “Upper” after sending Kearsley (4-1) into a tie for second with Linden and Flushing, Fenton’s opponents over the next two weeks, respectively. Saginaw Heritage 50, Midland Dow 15 The Hawks (3-2) just missed last season making the playoffs for the first time since 2007, but breaking a decade-long losing streak to Dow (2-3) might be the difference-maker this time.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER West Bloomfield 59, Lake Orion 52 (4OT) The Oakland Activities Association Red has three teams at 4-1 midway through the season, and these are two of them after West Bloomfield prevailed in a matchup that tied for ninth highest-scoring overtime game in MHSAA history. The Lakers moved into first place alone in the league standings after coming back from a 10-point halftime deficit and with quarterback CJ Harris throwing for more than 200 yards and running for more than 190. Click for more from the Oakland Press.

Watch list Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 27, Macomb Dakota 21 The Big Reds (5-0) won their fifth straight over rival Dakota (3-2) and hold the top spot alone in the Macomb Area Conference Red as they look to continue their 19-game winning streak.

Remember this one Detroit Catholic Central 7, Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice 3 The Detroit Catholic League Central season is only a week old for DCC and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s, but those teams now have a one-game lead with the Shamrocks (3-2) handing Rice (4-1) its first defeat and the Eaglets edging Warren De La Salle Collegiate 16-14.

More shoutouts Brownstown Woodhaven 21, Allen Park 20 The Warriors (5-0) shared the Downriver League title last season despite losing to eventual third-place Allen Park (3-2), and now sit atop the league alone by avenging that defeat. Grosse Pointe South 35, Port Huron 0 Since falling Week 1 to Birmingham Groves, South (4-1) hasn’t lost – or given up a point – and handed Port Huron (4-1) its first defeat this week.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER Portland 21, Lansing Catholic 20 The Raiders (5-0) extended their Capital Area Activities Conference White winning streak to 24 in part by blocking an extra point during the final minutes that would’ve tied this game with the rival Cougars (4-1). The win also ran Portland’s streak in the series to five – something to keep in mind later as these two have met again in the playoffs the last two seasons. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.   

Watch list East Lansing 21, DeWitt 2 The Trojans (4-1) followed up their impressive Week 4 win over Portage Northern with another that could eventually earn them a league title. DeWitt (3-2) was the reigning CAAC Blue champ and downed East Lansing 37-0 last season. But the Trojans now sit alone atop the standings after just two league games, having ended a DeWitt league winning streak that stretched back to 2008 and across the Panthers’ time in the CAAC Blue, Red and Gold.

Remember this one Clare 3, Sanford Meridian 2 It’s a good guess those involved will not soon forget being part of such a low-scoring game that also meant a ton in the Jack Pine Conference standings. Clare (5-0) now sits tied with Beaverton for first place after stopping two drives by Meridian (4-1) deep into Pioneers territory during the final 10 minutes.

More shoutouts Mason 46, St. Johns 7 The Bulldogs are 5-0 for the first time since 2009 and set up a CAAC Red decider this week against Fowlerville by shutting down the Redwings (3-2). Breckenridge 38, Merrill 0 Since falling to Beaverton in Week 1, Breckenridge also is unbeaten and has outscored its last four opponents by a combined 178-8. Merrill (3-2) was averaging 32 ppg entering the weekend.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Charlevoix 37, Frankfort 15 With four wins this season, Charlevoix (4-1) has equaled their totals from the last two years combined. This week’s victory over Frankfort (2-3) was the first since 2014 and kept the Red Rayders tied for first in the Northern Michigan Football League Leaders title race with Week 8 opponent Maple City Glen Lake. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle. 

Watch list Johannesburg-Lewiston 26, Tawas 14 The Cardinals (5-0) earned arguably the best win of a fast start and got some final prep for back-to-back games with Charlevoix and NMFL Legacy leader Harbor Springs. Tawas (3-2), playing eight games, must win two of the next three to guarantee a return to the playoffs.

Remember this one Houghton Lake 34, Lake City 14 The Bobcats (3-2) fell to Highland Conference leader Beat City in their Week 2 league opener, but kept pace in second place by getting past the Trojans (2-3).

More shoutouts Cadillac 26, Lake Odessa Lakewood 6 Like Charlevoix discussed above, Cadillac (3-2) has won as many games this fall as the last two combined and has a chance to make a run at a playoff spot. Mancelona 46, Elk Rapids 6 The Ironmen (3-2) are in position to make a run at their best finish and first playoff appearance since 2014.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Jackson Lumen Christi 21, Marshall 14 The Titans (5-0) took a big step toward wrapping up the Interstate 8 Athletic Conference title, bumping the Redhawks (4-1) out of a tie for first and with their final three league opponents a combined 4-11. Marshall kept pace for most of the game, with Lumen scoring the go-ahead touchdown in the third quarter before the teams held each other scoreless during the fourth.

Watch list Chelsea 13, Jackson 0 The Bulldogs (5-0) drew a step closer to clinching the Southeastern Conference White title by shutting out the reigning champion Vikings (3-2), which won the 2018 meeting 29-20. Chelsea’s final three league opponents are a combined 2-13.

Remember this one Hillsdale 10, Hudson 6 The Hornets (5-0) remain tied with Blissfield atop the Lenawee County Athletic Association standings after downing what has to be one of the state’s top 2-3 teams in Hudson, which has lost those games by a combined 32 points to teams a combined 13-2 this fall.

More shoutouts Pinckney 40, Ypsilanti Lincoln 14 The Pirates avenged last season’s loss to Lincoln to move to 4-1, eclipsing last year’s three victories while sending the Railsplitters to 2-3. Adrian Lenawee Christian 49, Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian 8 Lenawee Christian (4-1) handed NorthPointe (4-1) its first defeat, and aside from a Week 2 loss to Sand Creek has outscored its other four opponents by a combined 201-8.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Battle Creek Lakeview 35, Kalamazoo Central 7 The Spartans (5-0) clinched a share of the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference East title, avenging last season’s 21-13 loss to last season’s league champion Kalamazoo Central (2-3). Lakeview can finish an outright title run Week 8 against Kalamazoo Loy Norrix. Click for more from the Battle Creek Enquirer.

Watch list Portage Central 14, Stevensville Lakeshore 13 Both are chasing co-leaders Portage Northern and St. Joseph in the SMAC West and may not catch them. But both also are trying to extend playoff streaks – Central has made the postseason seven straight, and Lakeshore must win out to guarantee running their streak to 22 seasons. The Lancers are tied with Lumen Christi for the third-longest active playoff streak and sixth longest all-time.  

Remember this one Schoolcraft 67, Delton Kellogg 14 The Eagles (5-0) are averaging nearly 60 points per game and turned up the offense to start the Southwestern Athletic Conference Valley season against a playoff regular the last few seasons in Delton (3-2).

More shoutouts Benton Harbor 28, Battle Creek Central 21 After three straight playoff seasons and a run of state and national recognition, Benton Harbor fell to 3-5 last fall – but has bounced back and improved to 3-2 with this win. Cassopolis 33, Decatur 11 The Rangers (5-0) gave up their first points of the season, but against a Decatur team that despite falling to 2-3 has a solid chance to earn its seventh playoff berth in nine seasons.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER L’Anse 14, Lake Linden-Hubbell 0 The Purple Hornets (4-1) will have to win at least one more game to have a shot at making the playoffs for the first time since 2013, and their final four opponents are a combined 16-4. But L’Anse has set itself up for success just about as well as possible, this shutout its first in two seasons and against a Lakes team that at 3-2 is in a similar boat as it works to get back to the postseason. Click for more from the Houghton Daily Mining Gazette.

Watch list Menominee 35, Boyne City 0 Last season was the rarest of rare for the Maroons, who finished below .500 and didn’t make the playoffs both for the first time since 1995. But Menominee has rebounded substantially, its only loss to a Kaukauna, Wis., team that is 5-1. Boyne City fell to 2-3, but is tied for the lead in the NMFL Legends division.

Remember this one Negaunee 40, Ishpeming 20 After a pair of losses to still-unbeaten Iron Mountain and Calumet to start the fall, Negaunee (3-2) has won three straight with its largest margin yet coming against the Hematites (3-2).  

More shoutouts Sault Ste. Marie 24, Ogemaw Heights 12 The Blue Devils (4-1) are a win shy of equaling last year’s 5-4 finish and a candidate to make the playoffs for the first time since 2015, while Ogemaw Heights remains in the hunt for its first postseason berth since 2013. Escanaba 31, Kingsford 8 The Eskymos (4-1) bounced back from a painful loss to Marquette with their second-best defensive performance of the season in locking down the Flivvers (2-3).

West Michigan

HEADLINER Muskegon Oakridge 15, Montague 13 (OT) One of the best rivalries in Michigan just keeps getting better. This time, Oakridge (5-0) emerged victorious by stopping Montague’s 2-point conversion try to tie in overtime. This close finish follows Montague’s one-point win a year ago and is the fourth meeting over the last five between these two to be decided by seven points or fewer. Oakridge and Ravenna now sit atop the West Michigan Conference standings, with Montague (4-1) one game back. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle and see highlights below from State Champs Sports Network.

Watch list Byron Center 23, Zeeland West 22 We’ve talked up Byron Center (5-0) a bit in the early going this fall, but this win over Ottawa-Kent Conference Green powerhouse Zeeland West (4-1) is another major sign this could be a special season. This was the Bulldogs’ first win over the Dux since 2016, when Byron Center finished 10-2.

Remember this one Grandville 22, East Kentwood 21 The Bulldogs’ star continues to rise, and winning close against reigning O-K Red champion East Kentwood (3-2) could end up one the most important wins of the season as Grandville (5-0) looks to contend.

More shoutouts Zeeland East 42, Holland Christian 39 (OT) The two-time reigning champion Chix (4-1) just got past Holland Christian (2-3) to also remain undefeated in O-K Green play. Sparta 48, Grand Rapids West Catholic 7 The Spartans (4-1) took a serious step toward making the playoffs for the first time since 2013 and also can eye winning more than five games for the first time since 2011. Additionally, they hampered West Catholic’s hopes of extending its 16-year playoff streak. The Falcons (1-4) will have to win out to have the opportunity.

8-Player

HEADLINER Colon 42, Climax-Scotts 0 This was our featured 8-player matchup in Friday’s preview, and as noted then Climax-Scotts (4-1) had beaten Colon in 11-straight 11-player games before Colon switched to 8-player beginning with the 2018 season. The Magi (5-0) showed their superiority in this format, leaping a major hurdle as they run for a second straight Southern Central Athletic Association A championship. Click for more from JoeInsider.com. 

Watch list Mio 32, Hillman 14 The Thunderbolts have gone from 17 straight losses in 11-player to a 4-1 start in 8-player and handing Hillman (4-1) its first defeat of this fall. The Tigers had beaten Mio in four straight before they took a year off when Hillman moved to 8-player a year ago.

Remember this one Cedarville 48, Brimley 6 The Trojans (3-2) kept themselves in the mix in what looks like a strong Great Lakes Conference East, bouncing back from a loss to Rapid River by handing Brimley (4-1) its lone defeat.

More shoutouts Bellevue 30, Camden-Frontier 12 The Broncos gave themselves a chance in the SCAA A with a second-straight big win heading into this week’s matchup with Colon. Camden-Frontier (3-2) gets Colon in two weeks. Tekonsha 56, Waldron 54 (OT) Tekonsha (3-2) held on to stay on top in the SCAA B as it looks to repeat, with Week 7 opponent Burr Oak the only other team unbeaten in league play.

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PHOTO: Muskegon Oakridge's Leroy Quinn (20) breaks through the line during his team's 15-13 win over rival Montague. (Photo by Tim Reilly.)