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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Drive for Detroit: Week 2 in Review

September 9, 2019

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

After two weeks of this high school football season, it’s impossible to know how much of what we’re seeing now will be applicable by playoff time or even later this month.

But there are a number of teams we’ve highlighted in our Week 2 “review” that should be feeling pretty good about what they’ve shown us so far.

Many of the 45 achievers below are regularly mentioned in this report. Others likely are considered surprises at this point – but might not be for much longer.

"Drive for Detroit" is sponsored by MI Student Aid.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Freeland 29, Essexville Garber 20 A 2-0 start isn’t unfamiliar to the Falcons – they’ve begun with two straight wins every season this decade. But coming off last week’s one-point victory over Marshall, this win over the Dukes also is noteworthy for the way Freeland (2-0) held on through the end – especially against a Garber team that opened with a nice win against Boyne City and just missed the playoffs a year ago. This also was an opener in the new-look Tri-Valley Conference Central, which includes most of the best from the East and Central over the past few seasons. Click for more from the Midland Daily News.

Watch list Midland 45, Flint Carman-Ainsworth 0 Although the Cavaliers (0-2) have stumbled so far, Midland’s opening run still needs some mention with this win added to the opening victory over Traverse City West. The Chemics started 0-2 against the same two teams a year ago and still finished 9-4 and made the Division 2 Semifinals.

Remember this one Lapeer 43, Midland Dow 6 The Chargers (0-2) have made the playoffs six years in a row, so Lapeer (1-1) bouncing back from its opening-night loss to Lake Orion in a big way deserves notice.

More shoutouts Saginaw Arthur Hill 40, Flint Southwestern 16 The Lumberjacks (1-1) ended a 25-game losing streak with their highest-scoring performance since 2013. Flint Kearsley 28, Ann Arbor Huron 6 A second win over a larger opponent has the Hornets (2-0) a win away from equaling last season’s total as they play for their first winning record since 2003.  

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Birmingham Groves 24, West Bloomfield 17 The Lakers (1-1) have been considered among early Division 1 championship favorites this fall and had beaten Groves in back-to-back nonleague matchups over the last two seasons. But this shouldn’t be considered entirely stunning by the Falcons (2-0), who finished 10-3 last season and made the Division 2 Semifinals. The ending, on the other hand, was a little wild with a pair of late special teams fumbles turning into scores, including the game-winner. Click for more from the Oakland Press.

Watch list Lake Orion 37, Southfield Arts & Technology 7 The Dragons (2-0) have put themselves in the spotlight quickly with two impressive wins after also downing Lapeer in the opener. The run is especially notable after the team’s 0-2 starts the last two seasons.  

Remember this one Romeo 37, Port Huron Northern 6 Romeo is 2-0 for the first time since its Division 1 championship season of 2015, winning big against a Northern team that went 10-2 last season and won big as well in its opener this fall.

More shoutouts Warren Michigan Collegiate 30, Flint Beecher 6 The Cougars (2-0) roll into this week’s matchup with Detroit Country Day with an impressive win over a Bucs team that went 8-4 last season and started this fall with a sizable win. South Lyon 29, Trenton 21 The Lions are picking up where they left off after winning the Lakes Valley Conference in 2018, with Trenton (1-1) providing a strong challenge as it looks to make the playoffs for the sixth straight season.  

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER Portland 29, DeWitt 27 This very well could end up the game of the regular season in the Lansing area, with two of the region’s most successful programs facing off and the reigning Division 5 runner-up Raiders holding the Panthers off during a scoreless fourth quarter. DeWitt (1-1) had won 18 straight regular-season games and is 77-8 during the regular season this decade. Portland (2-0) has now won 18 straight regular-season games and 37 of its last 38. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal and see highlights below from State Champs Sports Network.

Watch list Holt 22, Hudsonville 21 Welcome back Rams. A pair of 3-6 finishes the last two seasons were helped along in part by 0-2 starts. But Holt is 2-0 for the first time since 2007 and after deciding to go for a 2-point conversion and the win late against the Eagles (1-1).

Remember this one Ithaca 16, Millington 0 The Yellowjackets (2-0) avenged last season’s playoff opener loss to the Cardinals (0-2), and now they are in the same league.

More shoutouts St. Johns 46, Ann Arbor Pioneer 33 After being shut out by East Lansing last week, the Redwings (1-1) bounced back by avenging a 2018 one-point loss to Pioneer (1-1). Lansing Catholic 56, Grand Rapids West Catholic 28 After two games this fall the Cougars have scored 112 points – nearly one-third of their total over 11 games a year ago – and this week beat the always playoff-bound Falcons (0-2) for the second straight season.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Maple City Glen Lake 28, Traverse City St. Francis 7 September isn’t two weeks old, but it’s hard to not anticipate some good things ahead for the Lakers (2-0) after they opened with a win over Millington and followed up by breaking an eight-game losing streak against the Gladiators (1-1) this weekend. St. Francis won last year’s meeting 50-12 and hadn’t been held to single digits in a regular-season game since 2013. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle and see highlights below from MI Sports Now.

Watch list Traverse City Central 37, Marquette 28 After falling to DeWitt by just five points at home Week 1, the Trojans (1-1) hit the road and ran their winning streak to six straight over Marquette (0-2).

Remember this one Charlevoix 18, Boyne City 14 The Rayders (2-0) won just once in 2018 and last opened with two straight wins in 2016, when they also last made the playoffs.

More shoutouts Cheboygan 8, Grayling 6 The Chiefs (1-1) are working toward their first playoff berth since 2013 and are a step closer after ending a recent three-game losing streak to Grayling (1-1). McBain 31, Roscommon 0 The Ramblers (1-1) also bounced back from a Week 1 loss by downing a Bucks team that is so far winless but finished 10-2 a year ago.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Erie Mason 80, Britton Deerfield 42 These two tied for the 14th-most points in an 11-player game where the losing team put up at least 40, and Erie Mason improved to 2-0 for the first time since 2003 while guaranteeing to tie its best finish for an entire season since 2005. Through two weeks quarterback Noah Beaudrie has thrown for 473 yards and six touchdowns and run for 509 and eight scores. The Patriots (1-1), meanwhile, upped their season scoring average to 35 ppg despite the defeat.

Watch list Clinton 45, Blissfield 13 Last season’s Tri-County Conference runner-up Clinton (2-0) will enter league play 2-0 for the first time since 2016 after avenging last season’s loss to the Royals (1-1), who opened this fall with a 19-point win over reigning TCC champion Ottawa Lake Whiteford.

Remember this one Sand Creek 31, Adrian Lenawee Christian 28 The Aggies (2-0) also play in the strong TCC, so this last-minute win over postseason regular Lenawee Christian (1-1) could end up a difference-maker when playoff selection time rolls around.

More shoutouts Jackson Lumen Christi 22, Parma Western 7 The Titans (2-0) pushed their winning streak to 25, and if it continues to grow this Interstate 8 Athletic Conference opener could be looked back at as key with Western (1-1) staying close into the fourth quarter. Temperance Bedford 20, Flushing 19 Bedford bounced back from a Week 1 loss to earn what could be a key win for its playoff hopes against a Flushing team that has made the last two postseasons but finds itself 0-2 with those defeats by a combined 12 points.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Portage Northern 14, Stevensville Lakeshore 6 In keeping with recent history, this matchup was decided by eight or fewer points for the eighth time in nine seasons and gives reigning league co-champ Northern (2-0) a valuable early edge in the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference West race. But 2017 champ Lakeshore is far from being out of it, and a few more contenders also could have a say. Click for more from JoeInsider.com and see below for highlights from FOX 17.

Watch list Kalamazoo Central 40, Portage Central 27 Defeating Portage Central last season was the first sign of Kalamazoo Central’s rise that turned into a league title and its first playoff berth since 2004. So the Maroon Giants (1-1) should be excited about the possibilities after bouncing back from last week’s one-point defeat to Mattawan with another notable victory over the annually-strong Mustangs (1-1).

Remember this one Cassopolis 28, Mendon 0 The Rangers (2-0) ran their scoring margin for the season to an early 78-0 advantage and earned a significant edge in their quest to repeat as Southwest 10 Conference champions, as 2017 winner Mendon (1-1) is always in the hunt as well.

More shoutouts Watervliet 22, Saugatuck 14 This was a major win as the Panthers (1-1) work to rebound from last season’s 2-7 finish; Saugatuck (1-1) was 9-2 a year ago and has won at least that many games four straight seasons. Battle Creek Lakeview 28, Mattawan 12 The Spartans (2-0) have had a few tough seasons but with this win tied their victory total of a year ago and against a Mattawan team that has made the playoffs two straight years. 

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Iron Mountain 42, Ishpeming Westwood 22 Two weeks into the season, Iron Mountain (2-0) could have its two main obstacles out of the way as it looks to challenge reigning champion Calumet in the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper. This week’s win followed up last week’s over Negaunee, and the Copper Kings await in Week 6. Westwood (1-1) was second and Iron Mountain third in the league last season. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.

Watch list Ishpeming 36, Lake Linden-Hubbell 34 The Hematites (2-0) are reigning champions in the West-PAC Iron and setting themselves up to be in the mix again, although the Lakes (1-1) could still find themselves in contention as well with a little help.

Remember this one Manistique 28, Gwinn 8 The Emeralds broke a 21-game losing streak on the field (not counting forfeits for games not played last season) with their first win since Week 9 of 2015.

More shoutouts Gladstone 20, Gaylord 7 The Braves (2-0) are halfway to last year’s win total with this one over a Gaylord team that made the playoffs last season and now sits 1-1 this fall. Sault Ste. Marie 20, Alpena 14 The Blue Devils (2-0) also downed a Big North Conference opponent, avenging last season’s loss to the Wildcats (0-2).

West Michigan

HEADLINER Muskegon 41, Detroit Martin Luther King 18 It’s impossible to not lead with Muskegon for the second straight week after the Big Reds defeated their second reigning MHSAA champion already this fall. And this one surely meant a little more as it came in a rematch of last season’s Division 3 championship game, won by King 41-25. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle.

Watch list Caledonia 19, Cedar Springs 12 The Fighting Scots’ Week 1 loss to Holt is looking even better after Holt beat Hudsonville, and this victory over Cedar Springs (1-1) says a lot about Caledonia’s potential heading into Ottawa-Kent Conference Red play starting this week.

Remember this one Byron Center 33, Middleville Thornapple Kellogg 14 After two straight sub-.500 seasons, the Bulldogs (2-0) also could be on their way to big things after sending the Trojans to 1-1.

More shoutouts Rockford 24, Lowell 7 The Rams evened these teams’ latest four-game series at 2-2 and moved to 2-0 to start a season for the first time since 2014. Zeeland West 48, Grand Rapids Christian 27 The Dux (2-0) added to their opening-night win over East Grand Rapids with another impressive one, as the Eagles (0-2) likely will be in the mix again in the O-K Gold.

8-Player

HEADLINER Pellston 42, Posen 38 The Hornets finished 4-5 in their first season of 8-player football in 2018, winning four of their final six games. This fall they’re off to a 2-0 start, and a first winning season since 1995 might become part of the conversation soon. Pellston scored the go-ahead touchdown against Posen (0-2) with 5:03 to play after trailing by 18 midway through the third quarter. Click for more from the Petoskey News-Review.

Watch list Vestaburg 22, North Adams-Jerome 6 The Wolverines (2-0) moved to 8-player football this fall, and so far so good after finishing 0-9 last season and 1-8 in 2017.  

Remember this one Bridgman 46, St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic 8 It also will be interesting to see how this first season of 8-player goes for Bridgman, which has outscored its first two opponents by a combined 102-24.  

More shoutouts Martin 20, Wyoming Tri-unity Christian 0 Martin (2-0) also is a first-year 8-player program and its scores the last two weeks have been much closer, but against two of the traditional best in Bellevue and this week Tri-unity (0-2). Powers North Central 62, Rapid River 6 These Jets (2-0) are scoring like the title-winning Jets of a few seasons ago, with a combined 128 points over their first two games.

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PHOTO: A Marquette defender closes in Friday as Traverse City Central quarterback Peyton Smith decides if he will hand off or keep the ball. (Photo by Cara Kamps.)