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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Drive for Detroit: Playoff Week 3 Review

November 12, 2018

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

The results are fewer at this stage of the MHSAA Football Playoffs, but the headlines are louder with more on the line and the best of the best running into each other with only a few weeks left to play.

This third round saw our 8-Player Finals pairings set – with those championship games taking place this Saturday at Northern Michigan University’s Superior Dome. Morrice will face Pickford in Division 1, while Rapid River will take on Onekama in Division 2.

Meanwhile, in 11-Player Regional Finals, we saw history made for Belleville, Holton and Breckenridge to name a few. We also saw the end to Pewamo-Westphalia’s attempt at making a fourth a straight MHSAA championship game, and said good-bye to one of Michigan’s most prominent high school programs and the winningest coach in state history.

Click to check out the scores through the first three weeks of the tournament and the pairings for the weekend ahead. “Drive for Detroit” is powered by MI Student Aid. 

Division 1

HEADLINER: Saline 13, Rockford 12 (OT) The Hornets’ impressive body of work this season grows by the week. By outlasting Rockford with a 2-point conversion stand, they advanced to the Semifinals for the first time since finishing Division 1 runner-up in 2014. Add to this one to wins over East Kentwood two weeks ago and Grand Rapids Catholic Central in Week 2 – and giving unbeaten Clinton Township Chippewa Valley its closest game of the season in a five-point Week 1 loss – and it continues to be quite a run. Rockford also should be proud; after opening 1-3 this fall, the Rams not only extended a record 24-year playoff streak but won their first District title since 2015. Click for more from the Ann Arbor News and see below for highlights from FOX 17.

Regional Recap: Clarkston 13, Lapeer 0 The reigning Division 1 champion Wolves (10-2) locked down their fourth Regional title in six seasons and eliminated Lapeer (11-1) for the third time over the last five – and second time during that string where the Lightning entered the game undefeated. Belleville 13 West Bloomfield 10 The Tigers (12-0) have broken through with their first Regional title, defeating last season’s Division 1 runner-up West Bloomfield (9-3) to make their first Semifinal. Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 42, Dearborn Fordson 7 The Big Reds (12-0) are headed to the Semifinals for the first time since 2003 after shutting down a Tractors team that finished 10-2 and was averaging 38 points per game.

Division 2

HEADLINER: Birmingham Groves 53, Livonia Franklin 29 The Falcons (10-2) are headed to their second Semifinals in three seasons after downing Franklin (7-5), a semifinalist a year ago. Groves has run off 10 straight victories since opening this fall 0-2, and the 53 points were a season high. Franklin led at the end of the first quarter 2-0 before the Falcons ran off 21 unanswered points during the second. Click for more from the Oakland Press and see highlights below from State Champs Sports Network.

Regional Recap: Muskegon Mona Shores 58, Portage Northern 28 The Sailors (11-1) also scored a season high to win their second Regional title ever and first since 2014, over a Northern team that at 9-3 tied its program record for wins set in 1981. Midland 43, Walled Lake Western 0 The Chemics (9-3) won their first Regional title since 2007 with one of the most impressive victories of the weekend, handing Western (8-4) its first shutout since the 2016 Division 2 Final. Warren DeLaSalle 21, Port Huron Northern 3 The reigning Division 2 champion Pilots (10-2) ended the winningest season since 1986 for Northern (10-2), which did hold DeLaSalle to its third-fewest points of this fall.

Division 3

HEADLINER: Muskegon 34, Cedar Springs 18 The reigning Division 3 champion Big Reds (12-0) withstood one of their toughest challenges of this season, as Cedar Springs (10-2) trailed by only a point, 13-12, at halftime. Muskegon quarterback Cameron Martinez – who broke La’Darius Jefferson’s school season record of 2,095 rushing yards during the game – ran for 32 and 75-yard scores during the third quarter. The Red Hawks finished with their most wins since going 11-2 in 2000. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle and see highlights below from WZZM.

Regional Recap: Zeeland East 50, Parma Western 24 The Chix are headed to the Semifinals for the first time since 1989 when East and West were one school. Parma Western ended its longest playoff run with a school record for wins at 10-2. DeWitt 42, Farmington 7 The Panthers (12-0) bounced back offensively after scoring nine points in the District Final and as a defense giving up eight points per game locked down the Falcons (8-4), who completed their longest run since 2002. Detroit Martin Luther King 54, Allen Park 15 The Crusaders (10-2) won their sixth Regional title in eight seasons, ending Allen Park’s at 9-3 after the Jaguars bounced back from just missing the playoffs in 2017.

Division 4

HEADLINER: Chelsea 21, Farmington Hills Harrison 14 The Bulldogs (9-3) have risen from third in their league during the regular season to win their second Regional title over the last four years, this time under first-year coach Josh Lucas. Chelsea’s win also marked the end of Farmington Hills Harrison football under coach John Herrington, who concluded as the winningest coach in MHSAA history with a 443-112-1 record since starting the program in 1970. Harrison (8-4) is closing next summer. Click for more from the Sun Times News.

Regional Recap: Grand Rapids Catholic Central 35, Escanaba 6 For the third straight season, the two-time reigning Division 4 champion Cougars (11-1) eliminated the Eskymos (9-3), this time holding Escanaba to its fewest points of the fall. Edwardsburg 56, Holland Christian 21 The Eddies (12-0) set up a rematch of last season’s Division 4 Final (a 42-31 loss to GRCC) by scoring more than 50 points for the seventh time this season, ending a nice run for Holland Christian (8-4) with its best record since 2009. Williamston 28, St. Clair 0 The Hornets (10-2) advanced to their first Semifinal since 2010 by shutting out a St. Clair team that finished 9-3 and had scored a combined 132 points over its first two playoff games.

Division 5

HEADLINER: Saginaw Swan Valley 36, Reed City 28 Swan Valley’s side of this bracket began with four of the 30 undefeated teams left in all of 11-player at the end of the regular season, and the Vikings (12-0) remained one by edging another over the weekend. Reed City (11-1) gave Swan Valley its closest game this season and a closer one than when the two met and the Vikings won 29-14 in a Semifinal a year ago. How close was it? Reed City ended the game on Swan Valley’s 2-yard line. Click for more from the Saginaw News and see highlights below from WJRT.

Regional Recap: Hudsonville Unity Christian 39, Kalamazoo United 14 The Crusaders (10-2) advanced to their second Semifinal in three seasons by locking down a Titans offense averaging 53 points per game heading into Saturday. United finished 11-1, its best since the co-op between Hackett and Kalamazoo Christian was formed in 2014. Portland 40, Frankenmuth 6 The Raiders are headed to their first Semifinal since winning Division 5 in 2012 after stopping Frankenmuth (9-3) in its quest to win a third straight Regional title. Marine City 40, Detroit Denby 32 (2OT) The Mariners also finished third in their league during the regular season, but are headed to the Semifinals for the first time since winning Division 4 in 2013. Denby (9-3) concluded its winningest season and longest playoff run both since 2006, with its losses this fall by a combined 18 points.

Division 6

HEADLINER: Montrose 37, Flint Hamady 6 As noted above, this weekend was good to teams finishing third in their leagues this fall. The Rams (10-2) did so in the Mid-Michigan Activities Conference, but with this victory won their first Regional title since 2013 and ended the longest run and winningest season ever for Hamady (11-1). Click for more from the Flint Journal and see highlights below from WEYI.

Regional Recap: Montague 30, Schoolcraft 14 The Wildcats (10-2) reached double-digit wins for the third time in four seasons with their first Regional title since 2009 – when it went on to win the Division 6 title. Schoolcraft (9-3) finished by playing in its first Regional Final since 2013. Traverse City St. Francis 41, Kingsley 20 The Gladiators (12-0) won their third Regional title in four seasons, although Kingsley (10-2) cut the deficit after St. Francis won their first meeting by 35 in Week 4. Jackson Lumen Christi 33, Blissfield 0 Two-time reigning Division 6 champion Lumen Christi (11-0) won its third straight Regional title with its third shutout of the season. Blissfield (7-5) was held scoreless for the first time since 2016.

Division 7

HEADLINER: New Lothrop 26, Pewamo-Westphalia 14 It’s rare that the loudest headline from a football weekend comes from one of the divisions pitting the state’s smaller schools. But it certainly was noticed when New Lothrop (11-1) ended the two-time reigning champ Pirates’ 24-game winning streak. P-W (11-1) had beaten New Lothrop 35-14 in a District Final only a year ago, but now the Hornets will return to the Semifinals for the first time since 2015. Click for more from the Flint Journal.  

Regional Recap: Lake City 34, Roscommon 28 The Trojans (12-0) held off Roscommon (10-2) to make the Semifinals for the second straight season and extend their run of the last two years to a combined 24-1. Cassopolis 23, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 22 The Rangers’ defense, giving up now 4.3 points per game, was tested for the first time. But Cassopolis (12-0) won its second Regional title in three years by stopping St. Mary (9-3) on a goal line stand to finish the game. Madison Heights Madison 44, Riverview Gabriel Richard 7 The Eagles (12-0) are returning to the Semifinals after handing a playoff defeat to Gabriel Richard (7-5) for the second straight season.

Division 8

HEADLINER: Holton 14, Mendon 6 The Red Devils’ first playoff season since 2007 now includes its first Regional title ever. Holton (8-4) outlasted annual power Mendon to move on after both reached the playoffs as additional qualifiers at 5-4 to end the regular season. The Hornets, after winning their 10th District title in 12 seasons, finished 7-5. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle.

Regional Recap: Breckenridge 12, Ishpeming 6 The Huskies (12-0) have taken the steps from first playoff berth in 2016 since 1993, to first District title ever last season to now first Regional championship. Breckenridge drove north and handed Ishpeming (11-1) its only defeat by locking down an offense averaging 42 points per game entering the weekend. Harbor Beach 35, Flint Beecher 0 The Pirates (11-1) are back in the Semifinals for the first time since making three straight trips from 2012-14. Beecher (8-4) closed its longest playoff run since 2012 in Division 7. Reading 54, Detroit Southeastern 0 The Rangers (12-0) now have shutouts in half of their games this season and their first Regional title since 2008. It was a memorable fall for Southeastern (8-4), which made the playoffs for the first time since 2010 and only two years removed from a 3-24 three-year string.  

8-Player Division 1

SEMIFINAL: Pickford 40, AuGres-Sims 20 The Wolverines (11-1) were giving up only 7.5 points per game and hadn’t scored fewer than 50 this season. But Pickford (12-0) dominated on both sides of the ball, breaking through for its first MHSAA championship game berth after missing in Semifinals the last two seasons. Click for more from the Sault Ste. Marie Evening News and see highlights below from MI Sports Now.

SEMIFINAL: Morrice 40, Colon 8 The Orioles (12-0) will continue their deepest playoff run ever, with this victory securing their first MHSAA Finals berth. Morrice locked down a Colon offense averaging 44 points per game, and the Magi (10-2) gave up a season high. Still, it was a strong 8-player debut for Colon, which went 2-7 in 11-player a year ago and was playing in its first Semifinal in either format. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

8-Player Division 2

SEMIFINAL: Onekama 28, Portland St. Patrick 14 The Portagers will play in their first MHSAA football championship game after doubling up last season’s Division 2 runner-up. Onekama (10-2) also set a program record for wins, piling up 20 straight points to hold off the Shamrocks (7-5). Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.

SEMIFINAL: Rapid River 36, Cedarville 30 One more third-place success story from the weekend. Rapid River (9-3) downed Cedarville 28-20 in Week 7 to eventually lock up that spot in the Great Lakes Conference East, and edged the Trojans (7-5) a second time to reach the 8-Player Finals for the third time this decade and first since 2013. Click for more from the Escanaba Daily Press.

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PHOTO: Breckenridge seniors give a thumbs up while celebrating their Division 8 Regional championship in Ishpeming. (Photo by Cara Kamps.)