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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Drive for Detroit: Playoff Week 2 Review

November 5, 2018

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

The postseason in any sport is a time mostly for celebrating success, as teams achieve first-time milestones or finish by bringing home the ultimate MHSAA prize.

Sadly, every week also means the end to seasons and high school careers. Two more 2017 champions saw their repeat attempts conclude this weekend, and a handful of title favorites just a few weeks ago also saw their runs halted.

We glance below at many of those storylines from the second round of the MHSAA Playoffs – noting as always that any football team making it to early November should be proud, whenever its run is done. “Drive for Detroit” is powered by MI Student Aid. 

Division 1

HEADLINER: Dearborn Fordson 41, Detroit Cass Tech 14 That Fordson won surely stunned some statewide, and especially by this margin. But the Tractors (10-1) entered the playoffs last month with just one loss for the third straight season and fell to Cass Tech (10-1) by only five points in their 2017 District Final matchup. That said, this was the eighth playoff meeting over the last decade between these two – and the Technicians won the first seven. Click for more from the Detroit Free Press and see highlights below from The D Zone.

More shoutouts: Saline 42, East Kentwood 7 The Southeastern Conference Red champ Hornets (10-1) scored 21 points in the third quarter and got near-perfect passing from quarterback Andrew Arbaugh to down the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red champ Falcons (9-2). Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 51, Macomb Dakota 10 The Macomb Area Conference Red champion Big Reds (11-0) made this much more comfortable than when they edged league co-runner-up Dakota (8-3) by seven in Week 5. West Bloomfield 20, Detroit Catholic Central 17 (OT) Last season’s Division 1 runner-up Lakers moved to 9-2 by answering the overtime field goal by DCC (7-4) with a touchdown pass from CJ Harris to Lance Dixon.

Division 2

HEADLINER: Warren DeLaSalle 35, Oak Park 7 The Pilots’ ability to shut down Oak Park again sticks out immediately – the Knights entered averaging 29 points per game, but DeLaSalle also defeated Oak Park (9-2) in their 2017 Regional Final 14-7 on the way to winning Division 2. With this victory, the Pilots (9-2) improved to a combined 21-4 over the last two seasons. Click for more from the Macomb Daily and see highlights below from State Champs Sports Network.

More shoutouts: Port Huron Northern 14, St. Clair Shores Lakeview 7 (OT) The Huskies (10-1) tied their program record for wins by getting past Lakeview (7-4) for the second time this fall. Birmingham Groves 38, Birmingham Brother Rice 24 The Falcons (9-2) avenged last season’s District-opening 24-21 loss to the Warriors (7-4), improving to 2-1 in their playoff matchups over the last three seasons. Walled Lake Western 35, South Lyon 14 South Lyon (10-1) won the Lakes Valley Conference in part with a 29-19 Week 8 win over Western, but Western (8-3) will play for its third Regional title in four years.

Division 3

HEADLINER: Cedar Springs 44, Mount Pleasant 14 Overshadowed by the many Grand Rapids-area powers during the regular season, Cedar Springs couldn’t be missed this weekend. The Red Hawks (10-1) handed Mount Pleasant (10-1) its lone loss to claim their first District title since 2000, adding to the O-K White championship clinched earlier this fall. Cedar Springs has given up a combined 21 points over the last five weeks and now will get to challenge reigning champion Muskegon. Click for more from the Mount Pleasant Morning Sun and see highlights below from FOX 17.

More shoutouts: Zeeland East 42, Zeeland West 24 Getting by the rival Dux (8-3) for the second time in four weeks earned the Chix (10-1) their first District title since 2010. Parma Western 44, Battle Creek Central 21 The Panthers (10-1) reached double-digit wins and won a District title for the first time in their history, ending Central’s best finish since 2004 at 7-4. DeWitt 9, East Lansing 7 The Panthers (11-0) withstood their biggest scare this season and after winning 37-0 in their Week 5 meeting with the Trojans (9-2).

Division 4

HEADLINER: Farmington Hills Harrison 13, Detroit Country Day 10 (OT) A bobbled field goal attempt turned into a backpedaling game-winning touchdown pass that extended Harrison’s final season another week. The Yellowjackets (7-3) had opened overtime with a field goal, and the Hawks (8-3) had lined up to try to tie the score. Click for more from the Oakland Press.

More shoutouts: Holland Christian 22, Grand Rapids South Christian 19 The Maroons (8-3) won their first District title since 2009, ending the Sailors’ run at 6-5. Escanaba 14, Alma 13 The Eskymos (9-2) will face reigning champion Grand Rapids Catholic Central for the third straight season after beating Alma (9-2) for a District title for the third straight year. Chelsea 35, Milan 14 The Bulldogs (8-3) won their fourth District title in five seasons, defeating Milan (8-3) for the second straight playoffs.

Division 5

HEADLINER: Hudsonville Unity Christian 40, Muskegon Oakridge 37 The Crusaders (9-2), playing for their third District title in four seasons, came back from 27 points down to edge the Eagles (9-2) as the latter was looking to repeat as District champs. Unity went on a 32-2 second-half run, taking the lead with just more than three minutes to play. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press and see highlights below from WZZM.

More shoutouts: Marine City 41, Harper Woods 27 The Mariners (9-2) won their first District title since 2013 by piling up the most points Harper Woods (8-3) gave up this season. Kalamazoo United 46, Hopkins 35 The Titans, made up of students from Hackett and Kalamazoo Christian, won the first District title for either since Christian’s in 2008 by downing the O-K Silver champion Vikings (9-2). Frankenmuth 28, Almont 22 The Tri-Valley Conference East-winning Eagles (9-2) won this matchup of league champions, handing Blue Water Area Conference leader Almont (10-1) its lone loss.

Division 6

HEADLINER: Traverse City St. Francis 42, Calumet 6 St. Francis (11-0) won this matchup of unbeatens to clinch a fifth straight District title and earn a rematch with rival Kingsley in the Regional Final. Calumet (10-1) capped its second 10-win season in three years but gave up a season-high in points while scoring a season-low six for the second straight week. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle and see highlights below from MI Sports Now.

More shoutouts: Blissfield 41, Brooklyn Columbia Central 40 In two weeks of playoffs, fourth-place Blissfield (7-4) has beaten both co-champions of the Lenawee County Athletic Association, this time avenging a Week 4 loss to the Golden Eagles (9-2). Flint Hamady 47, Ecorse 22 The Genesee Area Conference Blue-winning Hawks (11-0) added their first District title to their best run ever, eliminating Michigan Metro Athletic Conference Black champ Ecorse (8-3) Kingsley 44, Beaverton 14 The Stags (10-1) reached double-digit victories for the first time since winning the Division 6 title in 2005, ending Beaverton’s run at 8-3.

Division 7

HEADLINER: Pewamo-Westphalia 42, Saugatuck 20 This rematch of last season’s Division 7 Final went the two-time champion’s way again. This was the fifth time in six seasons these teams met, and as expected Saugatuck’s offense gave the Pirates (11-0) one of its more significant challenges. But P-W also became the first team since Week 4 to score more than 40 points on the Indians (9-2). Click for more from the Ionia Sentinel-Standard.

More shoutouts: Madison Heights Madison 38, Detroit Loyola 0 The MAC Silver champ Eagles (11-0) earned their third straight shutout, stopping Loyola (7-4) as it sought to win its seventh District title in eight seasons. New Lothrop 44, Cass City 20 The Mid-Michigan Activities Conference champ Hornets (10-1) earned a playoff rematch with P-W by doubling up Greater Thumb Conference West champ Cass City (8-3). Cassopolis 35, Centreville 0 The Rangers (11-0) won the Southwest 10 Conference title with a 21-0 Week 9 victory over the Bulldogs (9-2), and this time held them to 147 yards.

Division 8

HEADLINER: Reading 28, Ottawa Lake Whiteford 6 Reigning Division 8 champion Whiteford (10-1) hadn’t lost in two years, and hadn’t scored fewer than 36 points since falling in the 2016 championship game. This was arguably the most impressive of a great run of victories for the Rangers (11-0), who have beaten three league champions and a runner-up over the last month. Click for more from the Hillsdale Daily News and see highlights below from BCSN.

More shoutouts: Harbor Beecher 28, Ubly 26 (3OT) The GTC East co-champion Pirates (10-1) held off the revenge-minded Bearcats (8-3), who finished third in the league after also falling to Harbor Beach in Week 5. Flint Beecher 22, Clarkston Everest Collegiate 14 The Bucs (8-3) clinched their first District title since 2012 by edging the Catholic League C-D champion Mountaineers (9-2). Detroit Southeastern 24, Dansville 22 Southeastern (8-3) outscored Dansville (7-4) 16-0 in the second half to win its first football District title since 2009 and after six straight sub-.500 finishes heading into this fall.

8-Player Division 1

HEADLINER: AuGres-Sims 72, Deckerville 28 The Wolverines (11-0) added to their first season in 8-player and best run in football ever by beating reigning Division 1 runner-up Deckerville (8-3) to claim their first Regional title in the sport. AuGres-Sims countered giving up their most points in a game this season by going over 70 for the second time this fall. Click for more from the Huron Daily Tribune and see highlights below from WBKB.

Other Regional Final shoutouts: Pickford 48, Suttons Bay 42 The Panthers (11-0) survived their toughest challenge of this season, holding off Suttons Bay (9-2) with quarterback Jimmy Storey’s touchdown run with 37 seconds to play. Morrice 44, Wyoming Tri-unity Christian 14 The Orioles (11-0) won their first Regional title since 1996 by dealing the Defenders (10-1) their only loss this season. Colon 40, Bellevue 22 The Magi (10-1) are Regional champs for the first time thanks to a second win this season over the league rival Broncos (9-2).

8-Player Division 2

HEADLINER: Rapid River 40, Crystal Falls Forest Park 34 The reigning Division 2 champ Trojans (6-5) opened the playoffs by stunning Powers North Central, and Rapid River (8-3) followed up this week by downing Forest Park to make the Semifinals for the first time since 2013. Rapid River actually handed Forest Park one of its two defeats in 2017 as well. The Rockets will look next to make the Finals for the third time in eight seasons. Click for more from the Escanaba Daily Press.

More Regional shoutouts: Portland St. Patrick 20, Tekonsha 6 The reigning Division 2 runner-up Shamrocks (7-4) have rattled off four straight wins, this one over Southern Central Athletic Association B champ Tekonsha (6-5).  Cedarville 44, Posen 0 The Trojans join Rapid River among three Great Lakes Conference East teams still alive after running their winning streak against Posen (8-3) to four straight. Onekama 52, Brethren 0 The Portagers (9-2) won their first Regional title by also downing a conference champion in the West Michigan D League’s Bobcats (7-4).

Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Student Financial Services Bureau located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information, including various student financial assistance programs to help make college more affordable for Michigan students. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 savings programs (MET/MESP) and eight additional aid programs within its Student Scholarships and Grants division. Click for more information and connect with MI Student Aid on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.  

PHOTO: Clinton Township Chippewa Valley remained undefeated with a second win over Macomb Dakota this season. (Click for more from C&G Newspapers.)