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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Drive for Detroit: Playoff Week 1 Review

October 29, 2018

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

One MHSAA Playoffs week is done, with four to go. Here’s some of what we’ve seen so far:

• Of 144 games played over the weekend, 39 were decided by seven or fewer points. Six were decided by merely one point!

• We had the fifth-highest scoring game in MHSAA history, where the losing team scored at least 40 points, and two more that saw teams combine to blow past 100 points. Another game passed 90, and a handful more saw more than 80 points put on the board.

• We will have at least two new champions. Central Lake in 8-Player Division 1 didn’t qualify for this postseason, and five-time reigning Division 5 champion Grand Rapids West Catholic was eliminated over the weekend.

So with those as a start, this week – as with most first weeks of the MHSAA Playoffs – was filled with rematches from the regular season, a few upsets and many more wins to set up bigger games in the next round. Read on for a few notes on four of the most intriguing results from each division.

“Drive for Detroit” is powered by MI Student Aid. 

Division 1

HEADLINER: East Kentwood 31, Brighton 28 The Falcons (9-1) came back from an early 14-point deficit to earn their first playoff win since 2014. East Kentwood’s field goal was the only score of the second half. Brighton finished 7-3 but with two losses by a combined eight points. Click for more from FOX 17.

More shoutouts: Rockford 18, Traverse City West 13 The Rams (6-4) hit the road to defeat the Big North Conference champion Titans (7-3). Macomb Dakota 21, Romeo 17 The Cougars (8-2) beat Romeo (6-4) for the second time this fall by seven or fewer points, this time to set up a rematch with rival Clinton Township Chippewa Valley. Dearborn Fordson 24, Grosse Pointe South 17 The Tractors (9-1) scored 21 unanswered fourth-quarter points, and their 24 total were the second most given up this season by the Blue Devils (8-2).  

Division 2

HEADLINER: Okemos 31, Jackson 22 The Chiefs (7-3) have reached their highest win total and won their first playoff game both since 2011 under first-year coach Mike Krumm. This victory also ended a dream season for Jackson (9-1), which won its first league title in more than 70 years and (research pending) may have achieved its first perfect regular season. Click for more from State Champs Sports Network.

More shoutouts: South Lyon 31, Dexter 24 (OT) The Lions (10-0) held on to extend their winningest season since 2004 with their first playoff win since 2011, ending Dexter’s first playoff season ever at 6-4. Jenison 64, Traverse City Central 43 The Wildcats (7-3) emerged from this offensively-charged matchup with their first playoff win since 2001 and despite Central (7-3) scoring its second-most points in a game this season. Temperance Bedford 55, Dearborn Heights Crestwood 21 The Mules (6-4) continued their surge after a 2-4 start, ending the winningest season for Crestwood (8-2) since 1991.

Division 3

HEADLINER: Detroit Martin Luther King 7, River Rouge 6 These two entered the playoffs both averaging more than 40 points per game. But the Crusaders (8-2) bounced back from giving up 42 to Cass Tech in Week 9 by holding River Rouge (8-2) to single digits – not just for the second time this year, but the second time in four seasons. The Panthers’ defense, for its part, gave up only 24 points over its final eight game after a 40-7 loss to Cass in the season opener. Click for more from MLive-Detroit.

More shoutouts: Parma Western 21, Mattawan 14 (OT) The Panthers (9-1) held on to celebrate the first playoff win in program history. Mattawan finished 5-5 but with three straight losses by seven points or fewer. Battle Creek Central 25, Middleville Thornapple Kellogg 24 The Bearcats (7-3) earned their first playoff win since 2004, coming back after the Trojans (7-3) got off to a fast start. Muskegon 42, East Grand Rapids 35 The Big Reds (10-0) held on in one of their few close games of this season and a rematch of their 49-21 Week 3 win over the Pioneers (6-4).

Division 4

HEADLINER: Chelsea 28, Grosse Ile 21 The Bulldogs (7-3) didn’t make the loudest noise this season coming out of a Southeastern Conference White that saw Jackson and Dexter both receive statewide acclaim for their best seasons ever. But Chelsea earned its moment with this upset of the previously-unbeaten Red Devils (9-1).  Click for more from the Sun Times News.

More shoutouts: Paw Paw 14, Three Rivers 7 After being shut out by Three Rivers 26-0 in Week 5, Paw Paw (8-2) beat the Wildcats (8-2) for the first time since 2014 and scored on them for the first time since 2015. Escanaba 27, Ludington 20 The Eskymos (8-2) will play for a third straight District title thanks to a late score against the Orioles (7-3). North Branch 44, Croswell-Lexington 41 The Broncos (8-2) earned their first playoff win since 2006, coming back to beat the Pioneers (6-4) after falling to them 45-26 only two weeks earlier.

Division 5

HEADLINER: Clare 42, Manistee 28 The Jack Pine Conference co-champ earned a District Final rematch with Reed City by ending Manistee’s best season of the playoff era at 9-1. The Pioneers (9-1) tied the most points given up this season by the Chippewas, who rebounded from 2-7 a year ago. Click for more from the Mount Pleasant Morning Sun and see below for highlights from MI Sports Now.

More shoutouts: Hudsonville Unity Christian 41, Grand Rapids West Catholic 22 The Crusaders (8-2) ended West Catholic’s opportunity to extend its Division 5 title reign to six seasons, handing the Falcons (5-5) their earliest playoff departure since 2005. Hopkins 46, Berrien Springs 6 In a clash of league champions, Ottawa-Kent Conference Silver winner Hopkins (9-1) impressed against Berrien-Cass-St. Joseph Conference Red champ Berrien Springs (7-3). Lansing Catholic 22, Olivet 21 Quarterback Josh Kramer scored and then threw the game-winning two-point conversion pass with 47 seconds to play as Lansing Catholic (9-1) edged the Greater Lansing Activities Conference champion Eagles (8-2).

Division 6

HEADLINER: Millington 50, Ithaca 33 These teams met for the first time since 2014, when Ithaca won a District Final 35-0. This time, the Yellowjackets (8-2) were contained to their shortest season since not making the playoffs in 2008. Millington (7-3) will play for its third straight District title coming off its second game this season scoring 50 or more points, led by running back Jack Shreve’s 194 yards and three touchdowns rushing. Click for more from the Saginaw News and see highlights below from WEYI.

More shoutouts: Delton Kellogg 86, Niles Brandywine 50 – These teams – both 7-3 – combined to score the fifth-most points in a game in MHSAA history where the losing team put up at least 40. Among record book-worthy performances, Shane Brown caught five touchdown passes for the Bobcats, but they couldn’t keep up with a Panthers’ offense averaging 41 points per game. Michigan Center 35, Grass Lake 6 The Cardinals (9-1) may have fallen short of the Cascades Conference championship because of a four-point loss to eventual title winner Grass Lake in Week 6, but they’ll move on to a District Final after this big rematch win. Blissfield 21, Hillsdale 10 The Royals (6-4) avenged a 10-point Week 6 loss to the Lenawee County Athletic Association co-champion Hornets (8-2), despite getting outgained in yardage 257-191.

Division 7

HEADLINER: Saugatuck 49, Kent City 28 A live cable audience (FOX Sports Detroit) was able to enjoy this high-scoring matchup, which saw the reigning Division 7 runner-up Indians (9-1) pull away after the teams were tied 21-21 at halftime. Kent City (8-2) gave Saugatuck its closest game since a Week 4 loss to Schoolcraft. Click for more from the Holland Sentinel and see highlights below from WOOD TV.

More shoutouts: Lake City 30, North Muskegon 28 The Trojans (10-0) kept their unbeaten season alive, but with their second two-point win this fall and second by seven or fewer points over the last two weeks. North Muskegon (5-5) scored the most points Lake City has given up this season. Allen Park Cabrini 7, Detroit Community 6 The Monarchs (6-4) held on after scoring during the first quarter for their first playoff win since 2007, in the first playoff game ever for Community (8-2). Centreville 16, Union City 14 The Bulldogs (9-1) reached nine wins for the first time at least in the playoff era, just holding off the Chargers (6-4).

Division 8

HEADLINER: Reading 65, Pittsford 48 This was another one that will make the record books as these teams combined for 113 points. A fun fact is that Pittsford (7-3) scored more points than Reading had given up this entire season (40) heading into the night – but the Rangers (10-0) also upped their average to 52 per game with their highest output of this fall. Click for more from the Hillsdale Daily News.

More shoutouts: Harbor Beach 26, Saginaw Nouvel 6 The Pirates (9-1) avenged last season’s one-point District Final loss to Nouvel (6-4), which went on last year to finish Division 8 runner-up. Ubly 30, Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary 28 The Cardinals (7-3) seemed like an intriguing contender in Division 8 with previous losses only to Division 6 teams, but Ubly (8-2) made the Division 7 Semifinals two years ago and might be ready for another run. Dansville 29, Sterling Heights Parkway Christian 20 The Aggies (7-3) couldn’t get past reigning Division 7 champion Pewamo-Westphalia in their league this fall, but Division 8 should be on the lookout after they handed Parkway (9-1) its only defeat.

8-Player Division 1

HEADLINER: Deckerville 54, Kingston 16 The Eagles (8-2) are off and running again, earning an opportunity to win a fifth straight Regional title by dispatching rival Kingston (8-2) for the second time this fall – and after winning the first meeting by only 18. Click for more from the Huron Daily Tribune.

More shoutouts: AuGres-Sims 58, Mayville 6 After 12 tries in 11-player, first-year 8-player AuGres-Sims (10-0) earned its first playoff win to end Mayville’s second straight 5-5 season. Bellevue 54, Battle Creek St. Philip 6 The second-place Broncos (9-1) earned a rematch with Southern Central Athletic Association A champion Colon after winning this second meeting with St. Philip (6-4) in four weeks. Colon 58, Camden-Frontier 14 The Magi (9-1) came back from a Week 9 loss to beat Camden-Frontier (5-5) for the second time this season.

8-Player Division 2

HEADLINER: Crystal Falls Forest Park 36, Powers North Central 24 The reigning champion Trojans (6-4) opened the playoffs with a win over Jets for the second straight season, but this one hardly was expected after North Central (8-2) won their first meeting 52-28 in Week 6. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.

More shoutouts: Rapid River 20, Engadine 18 The Rockets (7-3) had fallen 30-12 to Engadine (8-2) only two weeks earlier and also in last season’s playoff opener. Brethren 42, Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart 26 The West Michigan D League champion Bobcats (7-3) bounced back from a Week 9 loss to win their first playoff game since 1990 and end the Irish’s first season of 8-player at 7-3. Tekonsha 28, New Haven Merritt 22 (OT) The SCAA B champion Indians (6-4) earned their first playoff win in their second postseason game all-time, downing the Northern Central Thumb League White champion Mustangs (6-4).

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PHOTO: A Kent City ball carrier charges through a hole in the Saugatuck defense, but the Indians went on to win the Division 7 playoff opener that was broadcast live on FOX Sports Detroit. (Photo by John Johnson.)