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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Drive for Detroit: Week 9 in Review

October 22, 2018

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

This week, 288 Michigan high school football teams are starting anew.

But before we turn our focus entirely toward the playoffs, let’s say a final goodbye to another memorable regular season.

The last of available league championships were clinched Friday and Saturday, and more teams than we can mention won to get into the postseason. Sunday, of course, was highlighted by the announcement of playoff divisions and pairings – and we’ll jump into the most intriguing first-round matchups later this week.

But for now, let’s take an acknowledging glance at the storylines from Week 9, which in many cases set up some of what we’ll be watching the rest of the way.

“Drive for Detroit” is powered by MI Student Aid. 

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER: Lapeer 28, Davison 6 The Saginaw Valley League Blue title went outright to the Lightning with this winner-take-all win. Lapeer (9-0) also capped its first perfect regular season since 2015 and third in five years since the former West and East high schools merged heading into fall 2014. Davison (7-2) finished league runner-up for the second straight season after winning it in 2016. Click for more from the Flint Journal and see below for highlights from WJRT.

Also of note: Ortonville Brandon 34, Swartz Creek 27 The Blackhawks (8-1) held off Swartz Creek to cap their best regular season run since 2000 with a share of the Flint Metro League title (with Flushing), while dropping the Dragons (6-3) out of first place and into a tie for third.

Remember this one: Midland 14, Midland Dow 8 Players never forget this kind of rivalry game. Midland (6-3) made it two straight over the Chargers (5-4) and in the process earned an automatic playoff berth. Dow became an additional qualifier, and they could meet again in a Division 2 District Final.

More shoutouts: Millington 34, Warren Michigan Collegiate 26 The Cardinals’ 14-year playoff streak was on the line, but Millington (6-3) earned an automatic bid by handing Michigan Collegiate (8-1) its lone regular-season defeat. Byron 31, Flint Beecher 27 Croswell-Lexington 47, Goodrich 13 Both ended up in the playoffs, but the Pioneers (6-3) made sure this time after missing last year at 5-4; Goodrich (5-4) did qualify with that record this time despite the defeat.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER: Detroit Cass Tech 42, Detroit Martin Luther King 8 The Technicians (9-0) will carry Detroit Public School League Green and now PSL A playoff titles into the postseason after avenging last year’s 10-point loss to King. The perfect regular season finish was the team’s second in three years and fourth in six. King, the PSL Black champ, fell to 7-2. Click for more from MLive-Detroit and see below for highlights from State Champs Sports Network.

Also of note: Warren DeLaSalle 24, Detroit Catholic Central 6 A week after falling to the Shamrocks 10-7 in what created a shared Detroit Catholic League Central title between the two, DeLaSalle (7-2) came back to down DCC (6-3) in the Prep Bowl A-B championship game at Ford Field.

Remember this one: Farmington Hills Harrison 48, Farmington 7 The final regular-season game in Harrison’s illustrious football history saw the Hawks (6-3) earn an automatic playoff bid with a big win over Farmington (6-3), which also qualified for the first time since 2015.

More shoutouts: Oak Park 21, Clarkston 14 The Oakland Activities Association White champion Knights (8-1) bounced back from a Week 8 loss to gain a boost by beating the OAA Red champ Wolves (7-2). Belleville 32, Brighton 17 They met to open and close the regular season, but this Kensington Lakes Activities Association overall championship win for the Tigers (9-0) wasn’t as nail-biting as that five-point Week 1 victory over the Bulldogs (7-2).

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER: Pewamo-Westphalia 28, Williamston 27 (OT) The Pirates (9-0) stopped a 2-point conversion try in overtime to win this matchup of league champions and finish their third straight perfect regular season in four years. The two-time reigning Division 7 champion hadn’t had a game closer than 28 points this fall before getting a valuable test from the Division 4 Hornets (7-2). Click for more from the Lansing State Journal and see highlights below from FOX 17.

Also of note: Howard City Tri-County 48, Holton 16 The Vikings (5-4) made the playoffs for the first time since 2004 after giving themselves the opportunity with this win over Holton (5-4), which also was selected. Tri-County also guaranteed its first .500-or-better season since 2005 after going 1-8 a year ago.

Remember this one: East Lansing 20, Okemos 17 These neighbors already had qualified for the playoffs, Okemos (6-3) for the first time since 2014. But this might be another indication this rivalry is on its way back – East Lansing (8-1) has won four straight meetings, but four of the last six have been decided by seven points or fewer.

More shoutouts: Portland 27, Montague 20 The Raiders (9-0) look playoff-ready again after capping their third perfect regular season in four years by beating a Montague team that finished 7-2 with its only other defeat to also-unbeaten Reed City. Vermontville Maple Valley 42, Comstock 18 The Lions (5-4) struggled mightily through a 2-4 start, but finished with three straight wins to line up their second straight playoff appearance.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER: Traverse City West 21, Petoskey 6 The Titans (7-2) entered this game with the possibility of falling into a three-way shared Big North Conference title. Instead, West won outright and finished a regular season where its two defeats were by a combined 10 points. Petoskey (5-4), meanwhile, earned its first playoff berth since 2015 after going a combined 5-14 over the last two seasons. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.

Also of note: Benzie Central 42, Frankfort 6 The Huskies (6-3) clinched their first playoff berth since 2011 – and after not having a team in 2016. Benzie came back to go 1-8 last season before completing the turnaround. Frankfort finished 5-4 but was an additional qualifier after winning three of their last five games.

Remember this one: Traverse City St. Francis 35, New Lothrop 14 Remember it, because the Hornets (8-1) do not lose often during the regular season. This was just their second regular-season defeat in nine seasons, but came against a Gladiators team that at 9-0 finished its third perfect regular season in four years.

More shoutouts: Maple City Glen Lake 27, Grayling 19 The Lakers (5-4) won the Northern Michigan Football League Leaders championship but were in jeopardy of missing the playoffs; beating Grayling (3-6) made them eligible as an additional qualifier. Gaylord 41, Sault Ste. Marie 0 Gaylord’s Blue Devils (6-3) bounced back from two straight one-point defeats to clinch their first playoff berth since 2015 and leave Sault Ste. Marie (5-4) just short, although those Blue Devils more than doubled their 2-7 records of both last season and 2016.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER: Cassopolis 21, Centreville 0 It’s rare to luck out with two undefeated teams meeting for a league championship in their regular-season finale. Cassopolis (9-0) chipped away to claim the Southwest 10 Conference title with its sixth shutout this fall. Centreville (8-1) entered averaging nearly 44 points per game, and still has plenty to celebrate – the Bulldogs have their first playoff berth and winning season both since 2008. Click for more from the Cassopolis Vigilant.

Also of note: Kalamazoo United 21, Schoolcraft 20 The Southwestern Athletic Conference Valley championship was decided by a point as the Titans (9-0) edged Schoolcraft for the second straight season after beating the Eagles (7-2) last year by three.

Remember this one: Portage Northern 16, St. Joseph 7 The Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference West sent five of its six teams to the playoffs, and the league race frequently is close. Portage Northern (7-2) with this win earned a share of the title while dropping the Bears (5-4) out of a possible share and into a tie for third place.  

More shoutouts: Stevensville Lakeshore 18, Mattawan 13 The Lancers’ 20-year playoff streak was on the line, but this win put them at 5-4 and allowed them to be selected as an additional qualifier. Mattawan (5-4) was selected as well. Coloma 52, Watervliet 36 The Comets (5-4) beat Watervliet for the first time since 2009 (they didn’t play 2012-14) to finish 5-4 for the second straight regular season – but this time they were selected for the playoffs for the first time since 2008.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER: Reading 55, Grass Lake 7 The Rangers (9-0) took their domination outside of the Big 8 Conference with this crossover win over the Cascades Conference champion. Grass Lake (8-1) also entered undefeated and scoring nearly 39 points per game. Click for more from the Hillsdale Daily News.

Also of note: Jackson 36, Lake Fenton 14 The dream season continued for the Vikings (9-0), who ended the regular season unbeaten for the first time perhaps ever (?). Someone surely will be doing some digging to confirm, but it will be well worth it to celebrate a historic accomplishment – and after Jackson went 4-5 a year ago.  

Remember this one: Brooklyn Columbia Central 35, Hudson 16 The Eagles (8-1) broke a two-game losing streak to the Tigers (4-5) to clinch a share of the Lenawee County Athletic Association title with Hillsdale, which it defeated in Week 8.

More shoutouts: Hillsdale 30, Dundee 13 The Hornets (8-1) held on to their share of the LCAA title by avenging two straight defeats to Dundee (5-4), and by doing so kept the Vikings out of the playoffs. Michigan Center 25, Springport 16 The Cardinals finished the regular season 8-1 for the second straight as Springport (7-2) lost for the second straight week but only second time this season.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER: Escanaba 39, Kingsford 27 The Eskymos (7-2) probably didn’t anticipate ending the weekend with a share of the Great Northern Conference championship. But by beating the Flivvers (4-5), Escanaba was able to benefit from Menominee’s upset of first-place Marquette. The win over Kingsford held additional significance too – the Flivvers edged the Eskymos for the GNC title last season with a win in their Week 9 meeting. Click for more from the Escanaba Daily Press.

Also of note: Gwinn 20, Munising 16 The Modeltowners (6-3) flipped last season’s 3-6 record to earn an automatic playoff berth and keep Munising (4-5) from possible selection as an additional qualifier.

Remember this one: Menominee 32, Marquette 14 This ended an uncharacteristic down season for the Maroons (2-7) – they saw their 22-year playoff streak come to an end. But they did finish by adding to a seven-game winning streak over Marquette, denying the Redmen (4-5) an outright league title and possible additional qualifier bid for the playoffs.

More shoutouts: Ishpeming 54, Bark River-Harris 13 The Hematites (9-0) put together their fourth perfect regular season in six years and coming off back-to-back three-win finishes. St. Ignace 44, Gaylord St. Mary 0 The Saints missed the playoffs, but finishing 5-4 was a great jump from 1-8 in 2017.

West Michigan

HEADLINER: East Kentwood 28, Rockford 17 The Falcons (8-1) made their way through an Ottawa-Kent Conference Red that will send four of seven teams to the playoffs – and with Rockford making a bid Friday to grab a share of the league title. The win over the Rams was East Kentwood’s first since 2015 and put Rockford (5-4) in an unfamiliar spot of briefly not knowing if its season was done – although the Rams did make the playoffs as an additional qualifier for a record 24th straight season. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press and see highlights below from WZZM.

Also of note: Zeeland East 36, Hudsonville Unity Christian 13 The Chix (8-1) completed a repeat O-K Green championship after Unity Christian (7-2) entered with an opportunity to create a three-way tie for the top spot.

Remember this one: Saugatuck 56, Fennville 20 The Indians (8-1) claimed the SAC Lakeshore title in this winner-take-all matchup, avenging the Week 9 loss to the Blackhawks (7-2) a year ago that gave Fennville the championship ahead of Saugatuck.

More shoutouts: Holland Christian 24, Spring Lake 17 Despite playing in an O-K Green with three other playoff teams, the Maroons (6-3) are headed back to the postseason for the first time since 2012 and with a guaranteed final winning record for the first time since 2009. Spring Lake (5-4) also made the playoffs as an additional qualifier after going 0-9 a year ago. Hudsonville 23, Holland West Ottawa 16 Two more of the O-K Red’s best met with playoffs on the line for the Eagles, who earned an automatic berth with the win. These two will settle things one more time with a Division 1 rematch this week.

8-Player  

HEADLINER: Wyoming Tri-unity Christian 22, Colon 14 The Midwest Central Michigan Conference West champion Defenders (9-0) handed the Southern Central Athletic Association A champion Magi their only loss of the regular season, holding Colon (8-1) to almost 33 points under its average. The win also gave Tri-unity its second perfect regular season in three years. These teams could meet again in an 8-Player Division 1 Semifinal. Click for more from the Sturgis Journal.

Also of note: Morrice 32, Webberville 0 The Orioles finished 9-0 for the first time in program history and reached nine wins for the third time in four years. Webberville made the loss pay off getting enough bump to make the playoffs at 4-5 with a higher playoff-point average than other teams that finished 5-4.

Remember this one: Engadine 52, Crystal Falls Forest Park 42 The Eagles (8-1) edged the reigning 8-player Division 2 champ Trojans (5-4), but these teams could see each other again in a Regional Final.

More shoutouts: Pickford 48, Cedarville 8 The Pirates (9-0) completed their second straight perfect regular season and finished an outright title run in the Great Lakes Conference East. Cedarville (5-4) will join three others from the league in the playoffs. Deckerville 20, Peck 8 The Eagles (7-2) eluded a possible shared North Central Thumb League Blue title, holding on to the championship outright by holding off an upset bid by the Pirates (5-4).

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PHOTO: Lapeer pushes through for a touchdown during its league title-clinching win over Davison. (Photo by Terry Lyons.)