Logo

Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Drive for Detroit: Week 7 in Review

October 8, 2018

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Southfield Arts & Technology over West Bloomfield, Grandville over Holland West Ottawa, Rochester Adams over Farmington Hills Harrison and Webberville over Camden-Frontier.

Those are just a few more upsets in addition to those we delved into in today’s “Drive for Detroit” review after Friday night provided a season’s worth of the unexpected.

Of course, the majority of headlines came from league championships won and playoff berths earned. And we tell of many of those as well in our latest report from around the state.

“Drive for Detroit” is powered by MI Student Aid. 

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER: Frankenmuth 35, Millington 12 The Eagles (6-1) extended their Tri-Valley Conference East winning streak to 29 and their league title streak to seven seasons with their fourth straight win over the rival Cardinals (5-2). Frankenmuth led just 7-6 at halftime before scoring 21 unanswered points over the third quarter and first few minutes of the fourth. Click for more from the Saginaw News and see below for highlights from WEYI.

Also of note: Lapeer 31, Flint Carman-Ainsworth 28 The Lightning (7-0) will face Davison in Week 9 for the Saginaw Valley League Blue title – after just getting past what might be the best 3-4 team in the state. The Cavaliers have lost three of those games by seven points or fewer. 

Remember this one: Flushing 26, Fenton 7 This guarantees an end to Fenton’s Flint Metro League title streak at seven seasons (including shared titles), and puts Flushing (5-2) in line to earn a share this month if leader Swartz Creek trips up over the next two weeks. Fenton (5-2) still can qualify for the playoffs for the 11th straight season with one more win.

More shoutouts: Almont 51, Richmond 12 The Raiders (7-0) earned a share of the Blue Water Area Conference championship by avenging last season’s loss to the Blue Devils (4-3). Hemlock 16, Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary 7 With Ithaca dominating the TVC West yearly, others don't get a ton of attention – but Hemlock (6-1) secured a third straight playoff berth by knocking the Cardinals (6-1) out of a tie they shared with the Yellowjackets for first in the league. 

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER: Dearborn Heights Crestwood 32, Dearborn Heights Robichaud 22 The dream season continues for Crestwood, which clinched the Western Wayne Athletic Conference title – its first league championship since 1985. The Chargers (7-0) also reached seven wins for the first time since 2000 – and achieved both against neighbor Robichaud (6-1), which also entered undefeated. Click for more from the Press & Guide and see highlights below from State Champs Sports Network.

Also of note: Oxford 20, Clarkston 17 This rises to the top of the week’s upsets because of all that Clarkston (6-1) has accomplished the last few seasons. The reigning Division 1 champion has won two titles over the last four years and last season beat Oxford 49-0. The Wildcats (5-2) are seeking their first playoff berth since 2014 and hadn’t beaten Clarkston since 2011.

Remember this one: Orchard Lake St. Mary’s 31, Detroit Catholic Central 29 This was another sizable upset – and if St. Mary’s (3-4) rebounds from an 0-3 start to make the playoffs with an at-large bid, it will mean more than just knocking the Shamrocks (5-2) out of a first-place tie in the Detroit Catholic League Central.

More shoutouts: Detroit Martin Luther King 27, Detroit Denby 18 The Crusaders (6-1) finished a perfect run through the Detroit Public School League Black, but this says a lot as well about Denby (5-2) for playing it close, as King’s only loss was by three to powerful Muskegon. Warren DeLaSalle 35, Davison 7 These two have MHSAA championship aspirations, and reigning Division 2 title winner DeLaSalle (6-1) looks pretty powerful after handing Davison (6-1) its first defeat.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER: Breckenridge 30, Carson City-Crystal 12 To put the last three seasons in perspective, recall that Breckenridge (7-0) was 0-9 in its final season in the TVC West in 2015. Since, the Huskies are 26-3 overall, 19-0 in Mid-State Activities Conference play, and with this win over the Eagles (6-1) claimed a third straight league title. Click for more from the Mount Pleasant Morning Sun and see highlights below from FOX 17.

Also of note: Olivet 34, Lake Odessa Lakewood 14 The Greater Lansing Activities Conference is owned by these two programs, with Olivet (7-0) clinching its second straight outright title and third in the league’s five years of existence. Lakewood (5-2) won the other two championships, in 2015 and 2016.

Remember this one: Clare 21, Beaverton 2 With the Pioneers (6-1) handing the Beavers (5-2) their first league loss, the Jack Pine Conference title is going to come down to the final week of the league season. These two and Roscommon all are 5-1 in league play.

More shoutouts: Williamston 14, Mason 7 Three teams clinched shares this week of the Capital Area Activities Conference Red title – Williamston, Haslett and St. Johns – but the Hornets arguably had the toughest league finale opponent as Mason (3-4) has lost now three games by seven points or fewer. Pewamo-Westphalia 61, Dansville 0 The fact these two both entered this Central Michigan Athletic Conference-deciding game undefeated in league play says a lot about P-W’s absolute dominance. The Pirates (7-0) have won 27 straight in the CMAC, while Dansville (5-2) won their other five this season by an average of 36 points per game.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER: Johannesburg-Lewiston 18, Harbor Springs 15 The Cardinals (6-1) have to play out the string, but defeating former co-leader Harbor Springs (6-1) put them in position to claim their first league title since 2009. Johannesburg-Lewiston can finish the Northern Michigan Football League Legacy run with wins over Newberry and Indian River Inland Lakes, which are a combined 2-12 overall. Click for more from the Gaylord Herald-Times and see highlights below from MI Sports Now.

Also of note: Manistee 35, Muskegon Catholic Central 27 The Chippewas (7-0) finished an outright title run in the Lakes 8 Conference and tied their most wins in a season since 1961 (according to Michigan-football.com). The Crusaders (3-4) must win out to have a chance at an eighth straight postseason bid.  

Remember this one: Elk Rapids 31, Frankfort 21 The playoff hopes for both hang in the balance; Elk Rapids (5-2) must win one of its next two facing two opponents with winning records, while Frankfort (4-3) now must win out for an automatic bid although the Panthers would be a strong at-large contender at 5-4.

More shoutouts: Petoskey 22, Gaylord 21 The Northmen (4-3) have now won as many games as the last two seasons combined, and forced the Blue Devils (5-2) into a tough spot needing to win one of their final two games to get back to the playoffs for the first time since 2015. Kingsley 56, Maple City Glen Lake 22 The Stags (6-1) most likely won’t catch Traverse City St. Francis in the NMFL Legends division, but did get a win over the Leaders division champ Lakers (3-4).

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER: Adrian Lenawee Christian 24, Pittsford 7 The Cougars (6-1) claimed a share of the Southern Central Athletic Association title by beating first-place Pittsford for the first time since 2015, holding the Wildcats to their fewest points since Week 2 of last season. It’s Lenawee Christian’s first league title in football – the Cougars split the championship with Pittsford and Climax-Scotts. Click for more from the Adrian Daily Telegram.

Also of note: Grass Lake 32, Napoleon 7 The Warriors (7-0) finished a run of three straight wins over 2017 tri-champions Addison, Michigan Center and Napoleon (5-2) to clinch a share of the Cascades Conference title.

Remember this one: Hillsdale 44, Ida 28 The Hornets (7-0) moved within one more win of clinching a share of the Lenawee County Athletic Association title, although they still must play two more league opponents with winning records after dealing Ida (5-2) just its second defeat.

More shoutouts: Dexter 17, Pinckney 14 The next one won’t come easily with two tough opponents ahead, but Dexter (5-2) is a win away from clinching its first playoff appearance. Ypsilanti Community 25, Ypsilanti Lincoln 7 The Grizzlies (3-4)  got off to an 0-3 start but have turned things around and beat rival Lincoln (4-3) for the first time in three seasons.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER: Edwardsburg 38, Three Rivers 15 Although the Eddies (7-0) still must beat at least one of two bottom-half teams in the Wolverine Conference to clinch, this win against co-leader Three Rivers (6-1) paved the way for a sixth straight championship. The reigning Division 4 runner-up is on pace to outscore last season’s team and has given up only 34 points – incredible compared even to the impressive 88 they surrendered during the 2017 regular season. Click for more from the Niles Daily Star.

Also of note: Climax-Scotts 28, Athens 14 There’s a chance all four SCAA teams make the playoffs, and Climax-Scotts (3-3) came back to earn a share of the league title after a 1-3 start. Athens also is 3-3 playing a five-game schedule.

Remember this one: Kalamazoo United 29, Delton Kellogg 12 Four of six teams in the Southwestern Athletic Conference Valley are 5-2 or better, and United (7-0) is tied with Schoolcraft for first place. The Panthers (5-2) will try to become the league’s fourth playoff qualifier over the next two weeks.

More shoutouts: Portage Northern 35, Battle Creek Central 21 The Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference West co-leading Huskies (5-2) tuned up with a strong crossover win over the East’s second-place Bearcats (4-3). Niles 18, Kalamazoo Central 13 The Vikings (3-4) have two more tough games left as they seek an at-large bid, but beating SMAC East leader Central (4-3) should remain memorable no matter how things finish up.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER: Ishpeming 14, Iron River West Iron County 0 It’s fair to say the Hematites (7-0) have made it all the way back from back-to-back three-win seasons. They can clinch a share of the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference small-school title this week after handing the Wykons (5-2) their first shutout since 2015. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.

Also of note: Escanaba 28, Gladstone 15 The Eskymos (5-2) are the only team of five in the Great Northern Conference that can still earn an automatic playoff berth, and they’ll also be rooting for Gladstone (3-4) this week to down league leader Marquette and create a shared GNC title.

Remember this one: Gwinn 26, Norway 21 Gwinn’s final two games are against teams with winning records, but the Modeltowners (5-2) are in position to earn a playoff berth and potentially knocked Norway (3-4) out of the mix.

More shoutouts: Iron Mountain 28, Hancock 21 The Mountaineers (5-2) also moved within a win of clinching a postseason appearance after going 1-8 only a year ago. Calumet 35, Houghton 0 The Copper Kings (7-0) haven’t given up a point since mid-September and only 32 total this season.

West Michigan

HEADLINER: Montague 25, Muskegon Oakridge 24 Perhaps the most wow-inspiring result of the weekend saw Montague score on the final play as time ran out in the fourth quarter – and then add a two-point conversion for a walk-off win. It was Montague’s second straight and third in four seasons over the rival Eagles (6-1) and earned the Wildcats (6-1) a share of the West Michigan Conference championship. Click for more from the Local Sports Journal and see below for highlights from WOOD TV.

Also of note: Grand Rapids South Christian 24, Grand Rapids Christian 10 The Ottawa-Kent Conference Gold took a turn as the Sailors (4-3) knocked the Eagles (5-2) out of a tie for first. Christian faces first-place East Grand Rapids this week to try to regain a shared lead.

Remember this one: Rockford 13, Hudsonville 7 The Rams (4-3) have gone from 1-3 and on the verge of missing the playoffs for the first time since 1994 to tied for second in the 0-K Red with this win over former co-leader Hudsonville (5-2). Rockford is in control of its league title destiny with first-place East Kentwood coming up in Week 9.

More shoutouts: Grand Rapids Catholic Central 35, Spring Lake 12 In successive weeks, the Cougars (6-1) have played a part in dealing Allendale and Spring Lake (5-2) out of the O-K Blue race, and now are tied for the lead with Grand Rapids West Catholic. East Grand Rapids 33, Middleville Thornapple Kellogg 13 The Pioneers (5-2) held onto the top spot in the Gold by downing a Trojans team that at 5-2 is enjoying its best season since 2011.

8-Player 

HEADLINER: Brethren 36, Mesick 22 The Bobcats (5-2) won one game in 2015, their final season of 11-player, and improved to two victories in 2016, three last fall and now own the outright West Michigan D League title. One more win would put Brethren at six for the first time since going 8-3 in 1990. Click for more from the Manistee News Advocate.

Also of note: New Haven Merritt 54, Caseville 7 The Mustangs (4-3) moved into first place alone in the North Central Thumb League White. But despite falling into a second-place tie, Caseville (4-3) with one more win will have its most successful season since bringing back football in 2012.

Remember this one: Litchfield 54, St. Joseph Michigan Lutheran 6 The Terriers (1-6) won their first game since Week 9 of 2012, building on eight and 10-point losses earlier this season that were its closest defeats in six years.

More shoutouts Kinde-North Huron 28, Peck 22 The Warriors (4-3) extended their winning streak versus the Pirates (5-2) to four, this time knocking them out of a first-place tie in the NCTL Blue. Ontonagon 20, Stephenson 8 After a 1-3 start, Ontonagon (4-3) downed Stephenson (4-3) for the first time in five tries in 8-player to keep its hopes of returning to the playoffs alive.

Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Student Financial Services Bureau located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information, including various student financial assistance programs to help make college more affordable for Michigan students. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 savings programs (MET/MESP) and eight additional aid programs within its Student Scholarships and Grants division. Click for more information and connect with MI Student Aid on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.  

PHOTO: A Frankenmuth ball carrier follows his blockers during Friday's league title-clinching win over Millington. (Photo by Terry Lyons.)