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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Drive for Detroit: Playoff Week 1 Review

October 30, 2017

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor 

A couple massive upsets and an MHSAA record. Not a bad way to kick off the 2017 Football Playoffs.

Those are just a few of the many highlights from this weekend’s first rounds – Pre-District in 11-player and Pre-Regional in 8-player – and we’ve mentioned many more in our “Drive for Detroit” report below powered by MI Student Aid.

Read on for some from each division that especially stuck out from the first of our five-week run. 

11-Player Division 1

Holland West Ottawa 33, Grandville 29

On a night that saw three teams lose Week 9 rematches they won the first time, West Ottawa (9-1) held on to down the Bulldogs (6-4) for the second straight week by scoring the winning points with less than a minute to play. West Ottawa had beaten Grandville 34-18 two weeks ago to claim the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red title outright; now the Panthers take on another league foe in Rockford. Click for more from the Holland Sentinel.

Also noted:

Rockford 36, Grand Ledge 0 – The Rams (7-3) hit the road and won their playoff opener for the 15th straight season, this time over the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue champion Comets (8-2).

Detroit Catholic Central 24, Livonia Stevenson 7 – The Shamrocks (6-4) made the playoffs as an at-large qualifier, but get a chance to win a third straight District title after downing another at-large team in Stevenson (5-5).

Canton 42, Saline 14 – The Chiefs (9-1) avenged last year’s District Final loss to the Hornets (7-2) as these two met in the postseason for the fourth straight.

West Bloomfield 31, Bloomfield Hills 6 – The Lakers’ most recent loss was by four points Week 2 to Bloomfield Hills (6-4), now avenged as West Bloomfield moved to 8-2 on the season.

11-Player Division 2

Flushing 20, Lowell 14

This season got even sweeter for the Raiders as they moved on to the District Final by handing Lowell (6-4) its earliest playoff exit since 1999. Flushing (8-2) now has as many wins as the last two seasons combined; the Raiders finished 4-5 in both 2015 and 2016. They scored with just more than three minutes to play Friday to break a 14-14 tie. Click for more from the Flint Journal.

Also noted:

Traverse City Central 21, Midland 13 – The Trojans (7-3) drove south and came back with a win over the Saginaw Valley League Blue champ Chemics (8-2), earning the opportunity to see rival Traverse City West again this week.

Ypsilanti Lincoln 14, Brownstown Woodhaven 7 – In its fourth playoff game ever, Lincoln (8-2) earned its first playoff victory by ending a seven-game winning streak for the Warriors (7-3).

Birmingham Brother Rice 24, Birmingham Groves 21 (3OT) – This thriller included a blocked field goal attempt to stay alive and made field goal to win, both by the Warriors (7-3), to avenge last year’s playoff loss to Groves (7-3).

Livonia Franklin 35, Walled Lake Western 28 (OT) – The Patriots (8-2) ran their winning streak to six straight by outlasting the reigning Division 2 runner-up Warriors (8-2).

11-Player Division 3

Cedar Springs 41, East Grand Rapids 40

On a night of upsets, this one sent the loudest boom across the state. The Pioneers (9-1), coming off their first perfect regular season since their Division 3 championship year of 2010, trailed throughout the first half before taking a lead early in the second. Cedar Springs (7-3) went ahead again and stopped a two-point conversion attempt after East Grand Rapids’ last score to secure the win. Click for more from WOODTV8.

Also noted:

Zeeland West 42, Zeeland East 27 – For the second time in six years, West (7-3) took a loss from East (9-0) during the regular season (in this case Week 9) but came back to end the previously-undefeated Chix’ playoff run in the first round.

DeWitt 42, Grand Rapids Christian 10 – The Panthers (9-1) also got a revenge win after suffering their only loss this season on opening night to the Eagles (7-3).

Haslett 31, Parma Western 29 – The Vikings (8-2) continued their best season since 2006 thanks to a last-minute field goal by Nate Magnusson; at 6-4, Parma Western did tie its best record since 1986.

Redford Thurston 26, Romulus 0 – A loss in Week 6 to eventual champion Romulus (6-4) cost Thurston the Western Wayne Athletic Conference Blue title, but the Eagles (7-3) will get to play for a District championship instead.

11-Player Division 4

Three Rivers 20, Vicksburg 10

In another case of sudden revenge, Three Rivers bounced back from a Week 9 loss to the Bulldogs (7-3) that cost the Wildcats a share of the Wolverine B Conference title. The 20-point swing Friday kept Three Rivers (8-2) alive with its most wins since 2012 and earned it a rematch with Wolverine champ Edwardsburg; the Wildcats beat the Eddies in Week 7. Click for more from JoeInsider.com.

Also noted:

Williamston 34, Lake Fenton 14 – The Hornets (6-4) came back from a seven-point Week 9 loss to the Blue Devils (8-2) with their first playoff wins since 2012.

Wyoming Kelloggsville 49, Wyoming Godwin Heights 7 – After downing their rivals by only one in Week 6, the Rockets (10-0) broke away; Godwin (7-3) should still celebrate its best finish since 1989.

Grand Rapids Catholic Central 32, Hudsonville Unity Christian 26 – The reigning champion Cougars (10-0) survived one of their few scares of the season to eliminate Unity Christian (6-4) in a rematch of last year’s Semifinal.  

Plainwell 24, Grand Rapids South Christian 13 – The Trojans (8-2) reached eight wins for the third time in five years but after going only 4-5 a year ago, ending the season for a South Christian team that improved two wins to 7-3 this fall. 

11-Player Division 5

Frankenmuth 31, Almont 28

A seemingly high number of games enjoyed dramatic finishes to start the playoffs – but this one might have taken the prize. After trailing by 18 heading into the fourth quarter, Almont (7-3) took a 28-24 lead with 16 seconds to play. But Hunter Schluckebier brought back his second kickoff return for a touchdown on the night, this one 84 yards to give the Eagles (10-0) the lead again with two seconds left. Click for more from the Saginaw News.

Also noted:

Grant 28, Newaygo 14 – The Tigers (7-3) equaled their most wins since 2010 by avenging a Week 8 loss to the Lions (7-3), who won the first meeting by 14.

Carrollton 25, Freeland 6 – The best season for Carrollton (7-3) since 2012 got even better with this avenging of a Week 8 loss to the Falcons (6-4), who won the first meeting by 17.

Ida 22, Detroit Denby 20 – The Bluestreaks (8-2) have bounced back from seeing their league title hopes dashed and downed one of the best from the Detroit Public School League in Denby (6-3).

Algonac 20, Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard 3 – The Blue Water Area Conference champ Muskrats (9-1) moved to 6-2 in the playoffs over the last three years by ending the best season for the Fighting Irish (7-3) since 2014. 

11-Player Division 6

Maple City Glen Lake 28, Boyne City 7

It was easy to glance at this Division 6 District and anticipate a rematch between Boyne City (9-1) and Traverse City St. Francis, who decided the Northern Michigan Football League Legends championship in Week 9. But reigning Division 6 runner-up Glen Lake (7-2) won the Leaders division this fall after a rough nonleague start and now gets a chance to avenge a Week 2 loss to the Gladiators. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.

Also noted:

Houghton Lake 20, Harrison 16 – After falling to Harrison (6-4) by two in Week 7, the Bobcats (7-3) came back to ensure their best record since 2005.

Laingsburg 7, Montrose 0 – The Wolfpack (8-2) got to eight wins for the third straight season with the game’s lone points against the Rams (7-3).

Blissfield 13, Napoleon 7 – The Royals (6-4) emerged from third place in the Lenawee County Athletic Association to hand a season-ending loss to Cascades Conference co-champion Napoleon (7-3).

Detroit Central 41, Clinton Township Clintondale 12 – The Trail Blazers (8-2) have their most wins since 2010 and will play for a second straight District title after ending a nice bounce-back season for the Dragons, who went from 4-5 in 2016 to 7-3. 

11-Player Division 7 

St. Louis 13, Beaverton 12

First St. Louis made the playoffs this month for the first time, and now this: The Sharks (6-4) also have their first playoff win and their most victories total in one season since 1995, thanks to a late touchdown that secured this opener. Beaverton (8-2) also enjoyed a historic season, its winningest since 1970. Click for more from the Mount Pleasant Morning Sun. 

Also noted:

Ishpeming Westwood 30, Elk Rapids 0 – Westwood (9-1) extended its record for wins in a season with this one over Elk Rapids (7-3) its first in the playoffs since 2009; the Elks can celebrate a great run after going a combined 2-15 over 2015-16. 

Reading 21, Union City 20 – Reading (8-2) hung on in a rematch after first defeating Union City (7-3) by 24 in Week 6.

Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 45, Addison 28 – St. Mary’s first playoff win since 2014 pushed the Falcons to 6-4 after a 1-3 start; Cascade Conference co-champ Addison (7-3) finished its most successful season since 2007. 

Riverview Gabriel Richard 22, Rochester Hills Lutheran Northwest 21 – The Pioneers (9-1) also set a program record for wins while ending a perfect run for Lutheran Northwest (9-1).

11-Player Division 8 

Climax-Scotts 84, Fulton 62

Part of the fun of this record-setting result was watching the score climb. The Pirates (7-3) led 35-34 at halftime, but Climax-Scotts (8-2) took a 62-49 advantage into the fourth quarter. Total, the 146 points set an MHSAA record for a game in which the losing team scored at least 40. Click for more from the Battle Creek Enquirer.

Also noted:

Hillman 15, AuGres-Sims 6 – The Tigers (6-4) opened 0-3 but now have avenged one of those defeats, in the process handing AuGres-Sims (8-1) its only loss.

Harbor Beach 30, Ubly 22 – The Pirates defeated the rival Bearcats (7-3) for the second time in three weeks, moving to 9-1 with an eighth straight victory.

Petersburg-Summerfield 14, Morenci 6 – The Bulldogs (7-3) swung the score 20 points after falling 40-28 to Morenci (6-4) in Week 9.

Clarkston Everest Collegiate 26, Waterford Our Lady 21 – The Mountaineers (8-2) ran their streak against rival Our Lady to four straight after also downing the Lakers (6-3) in Week 7 to clinch the first share of the Detroit Catholic League Intersectional 2 title. 

8-Player Division 1 

Lawrence 24, Camden-Frontier 20

The Cedar Springs win is tough to beat, but this was a massive upset as well. Camden-Frontier (9-1) entered with the second-highest playoff point average in Division 1, and only one opponent had come closer than 26 of catching the Redskins this fall. Lawrence (5-5) was the only team to make the playoffs with a sub-.500 record – but the 2014 champion is moving on. Click for more from the Hillsdale Daily News.

Also noted: 

Cedarville 20, Rudyard 0 – Ten weeks later the result was more or less the same, as Cedarville (8-2) handed Rudyard (7-3) a second loss after they first met opening night.

Suttons Bay 38, Wyoming Tri-unity Christian 24 – After not being able to finish last season’s schedule in 11-player, Suttons Bay (7-3) has found a home and downed Tri-unity (6-4) after it made the Semifinals in 2016.

Morrice 58, Kingston 28 – A month ago, Kingston (7-3) stunned the Orioles (9-1) the week after they handed Deckerville its lone loss; now Morrice gets to see Deckerville again after the two ended up splitting the North Central Thumb League Stars title.

8-Player Division 2

Engadine 38, Rapid River 28

Chalk up a major win for the eastern Upper Peninsula. Engadine (8-2) was surrounded in this Regional by three strong teams from the powerful Western Eight Conference, but now has a chance to come out as the winner after eliminating the WEC champion Rockets (7-3). Click for more from the Escanaba Daily Press. 

Also noted:

Crystal Falls Forest Park 20, Powers North Central 6 – The Trojans (8-2) handed North Central a loss for the second time this season, eliminating the two-time reigning champion after the Jets (6-3) had won five straight.

Bay City All Saints 44, Marion 42 – The Cougars (7-3) bounced back from two straight losses to end the regular season to take down the West Michigan D League champ Eagles (7-2).

Flint International Academy 36, Battle Creek St. Philip 24 – The Phoenix (8-2) earned its first playoff win and sit 14-5 in two seasons as a program; St. Philip finished 5-5, returning to the playoffs after missing a year ago.

Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Student Financial Services Bureau located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information, including various student financial assistance programs to help make college more affordable for Michigan students. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 savings programs (MET/MESP) and eight additional aid programs within its Student Scholarships and Grants division. Click for more information and connect with MI Student Aid on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.

PHOTO: Alma and Flint Powers Catholic played into overtime Friday before the Panthers emerged with a 20-14 win in Division 4. (Click to see more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)