Logo

Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

Drive for Detroit: Week 6 in Review

October 2, 2017

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

New powers continued to rise all over Michigan during Week 6 of the football regular season. 

A few did so with spectacular upsets, while others broke streaks that had grown to include multiple seasons – or in one case, stretched nearly two decades.

The Drive for Detroit report powered by MI Student Aid details the most intriguing 11-player results from eight regions across our state plus the best from 8-player every week – and this week’s headliners are the most riveting, as a group, so far in 2017. 

Bay & Thumb

Midland 39, Davison 25

Among the state’s elite in the near past, Midland entered this fall with two 4-5 finishes over the last three seasons (surrounding a 7-3 in 2015). But this win made lots of noise as Davison (5-1) hadn’t lost a regular-season game since 2015 and shut out the Chemics 20-0 last fall. Midland (5-1) and Lapeer now sit atop the Saginaw Valley League Blue standings and meet Week 8. Click for more from the Midland Daily News.

Also noted:

Goodrich 41, Corunna 27 – The Martians (5-1) held onto their chance to grab a share of the Genesee Area Conference Red title and will cheer for Corunna (3-3) this week as the Cavaliers take on leader Lake Fenton.

Richmond 17, Almont 7 – The Blue Water Area Conference is down to a two-team race as Richmond (6-0) and Algonac are in first and Almont (4-2) has lost to both; the leaders meet in Week 8.

Flint Carman-Ainsworth 41, Bay City Central 31 – These Cavaliers (4-2) have won three straight to move into first place alone in the SVL Red, with Central (3-3) and Week 8 opponent Midland Dow a win back.

Unionville-Sebewaing 30, Reese 14 – USA (4-2) put itself in position to create a two or even three-way tie for the Greater Thumb Conference West title with leader Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker up next; Reese (3-3) is fighting for a playoff spot. 

Greater Detroit

Belleville 35, Dearborn Fordson 7

Belleville not only clinched a share of the Western Wayne Athletic Conference Red title and earned a playoff berth by downing the co-leading Tractors (5-1), but the Tigers (6-0) make an even louder statement as a contender in Division 1. They are 6-0 for the first time since 2002 after also making the playoffs the last two seasons, and they’ve now given up just 13 points over their last five games. Fordson hadn’t given up more than 14 in a game this season. Click for more from the Detroit News.

Also noted:

Detroit Martin Luther King 27, Detroit Denby 6 – The Crusaders (5-1) earned a share of the Detroit Public School League Black division title while handing Denby (4-1) its first loss in league play and overall.

Rochester Adams 38, Southfield Arts & Technology 14 – The Highlanders (5-1) remain part of a three-team first-place tie in the Oakland Activities Association Red after handing this loss to what has to be one of the best 3-3 teams in the state in the Warriors.

Warren DeLaSalle 52, Dearborn Divine Child 14 – Both could finish first in their respective Detroit Catholic League divisions, and DeLaSalle (5-1) if it wins out would have little argument as the overall best after handing Divine Child (5-1) its only loss so far.

Romulus 31, Redford Thurston 22 – The Eagles (4-2), which finished second in the WWAC Red last year, clinched a share of the WWAC Blue title while sending Thurston (4-2) into a tie for second place

Mid-Michigan

Olivet 34, Lake Odessa Lakewood 6

Lakewood (5-1) had won 15 straight league games and the last two championships after Olivet won the first-ever Greater Lansing Activities Conference title in 2014. The Eagles (6-0) have been on the verge though, with their only league losses the last two seasons to the Vikings. Olivet can clinch the championship outright this week against Stockbridge. Click for more from FOX17.

Also noted:

Alma 21, Freeland 7 – The Panthers (6-0) broke a four-game losing streak to the Falcons (4-2), keeping alive a Tri-Valley Conference Central title showdown possibility against Saginaw Swan Valley in Week 8.

Belding 35, Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian 21 – The Ottawa-Kent Conference Silver race got whittled down this weekend and Belding (5-1) remains one of two co-leaders, while NorthPointe (5-1) is poised to claim a share if both falter over the final three games.

Breckenridge 27, Carson City-Crystal 26 – The Huskies (5-1) remain perfect in the Mid-State Activities Conference since joining the league last season; a win by Carson City-Crystal (3-3) would’ve created a three-way tie for first.

Pewamo-Westphalia 32, Laingsburg 11 – The Pirates (5-1) got one win away from clinching a third straight Central Michigan Athletic Conference title by upending the second-place Wolfpack (4-2).

Northern Lower Peninsula

Maple City Glen Lake 48, Frankfort 34

A five-point loss to Frankfort cost Glen Lake (3-2) the Northern Michigan Football Conference Leaders title in 2016, even as the Lakers went on to play at Ford Field and finish runner-up in Division 6. But they clinched a share of the 2017 league title with this victory, and with only winless Mancelona standing in the way of an outright championship. Frankfort (4-2) had won 11 straight league games dating to the start of the 2014 NMFC schedule. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.

Also noted:

Boyne City 34, Kalkaska 13 – The Ramblers (6-0) held on to a share of first place in the NMFC Legends division by handing Kalkaska (3-3) its third straight defeat.

Traverse City St. Francis 49, Grayling 22 – The Gladiators (6-0) kept pace with Boyne City, handing Grayling (4-2) a second straight loss as the leaders continued to point to a possible league decider in Week 9.

AuGres-Sims 54, Whittemore-Prescott 14 – The Wolverines (6-0) clinched a share of the North Star League title after finishing second a year ago, and may also have dealt the blow to end the Cardinals’ 10-year playoff streak; Whittemore-Prescott is 2-4 and must win out for a chance at an at-large bid.

Traverse City West 30, Benton Harbor 13 – The Titans (6-0) equaled their win total from last season and already their most victories since 2004, while also putting Benton Harbor (2-4) in a position where it must win out to have a hope of a third straight playoff berth. 

Southeast & Border

Reading 36, Union City 12

The Rangers, coming off back-to-back 3-6 seasons, are one win from claiming a share of the Big 8 Conference title after downing second-place Union City. Reading (5-1) hasn’t lost this season since opening night, and its final two league opponents are a combined 2-10. Union City also is 5-1 and enjoying a great rebound after going 2-7 last fall and 4-5 in 2015. Click for more from the Hillsdale Daily News.

Also noted:

Ottawa Lake Whiteford 51, Morenci 8 – Whiteford turned away what looked to be its most formidable challenge so far in the Tri-County Conference, sending Morenci to 3-3 overall and second place in the standings.

Clinton 28, Petersburg-Summerfield 24 – Clinton (4-2) is tied for second in the TCC and stayed in line for a Week 8 title-deciding date with Whiteford by jumping above the Bulldogs (4-2), who fell to fourth place.

Pinckney 35, Tecumseh 10 – The Pirates (5-1) held on to a tie for first in the Southeastern Conference White while putting Tecumseh (3-3) in a spot to win out to guarantee a playoff berth for the first time since 2014.

Saline 42, Monroe 14 – The Hornets (5-1) clinched a share of the SEC Red title and face co-second place Ann Arbor Pioneer this week; Monroe (3-3) is aiming to win out to make it back to the playoffs after missing a year ago.  

Southwest Corridor

Stevensville Lakeshore 30, Portage Northern 27

In its closest Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference West game so far this season, Lakeshore clinched a share of the league title and avenged last season’s three-point loss to the Huskies. The Lancers also moved to 6-0 for the first time since 2012 and secured a 20th straight playoff berth. Northern (2-4) continued a heart-breaking string, with three of their losses by a combined nine points. Click for more from the St. Joseph Herald-Palladium.

Also noted:

Climax-Scotts 60, Adrian Lenawee Christian 29 – The Panthers (5-1) remained tied for first in the Southern Central Athletic Association by handing Lenawee Christian (4-2) its second loss in three weeks.

Berrien Springs 59, Parchment 6 – The Shamrocks (5-1) clinched a share of the Berrien-Cass-St. Joseph White title with their third game of 50 or more points; Parchment (4-2) remains two wins from guaranteeing its first playoff berth since 2013.

Schoolcraft 35, Constantine 8 – This rivalry win by the Eagles (5-1), combined with the result below, helped put Schoolcraft into a first-place tie with only Watervliet in the Southwestern Athletic Conference Valley; Constantine (3-3) must win out to guarantee adding to its 18-year playoff streak.

Kalamazoo United 28, Coloma 27 – After falling to Watervliet in Week 5, United (5-1) dealt a disappointing blow to the much-improved Comets (4-2). 

Upper Peninsula

Escanaba 42, Menominee 21

The streak is over; the Eskymos (5-1) downed Menominee for the first time since 1998 in the 122nd meeting between the Great Northern Conference rivals. And the win was impressive – the reigning champion Maroons hadn’t given up 42 points in a league game since 2008. Although it was the GNC opener for Menominee, Escanaba had already played two league games and with this win set up a potential league title matchup with Kingsford in Week 9 – although the Flivvers, 2-0 in GNC play, must first face the Maroons in Week 8. Click for more from the Escanaba Daily Press.

Also noted:

Iron River West Iron County 53, Calumet 20 – The Wykons (5-1) remain the only team undefeated in West Peninsula Athletic Conference play, while reigning champ Calumet (3-3) has lost three of four and needs to win out to extend a three-year playoff streak.

Bessemer Gogebic 26, L'Anse 7 – The first half of this season was tough for the Miners (2-4), but they’ve doubled last season’s win total and still have a playoff shot after stunning the Purple Hornets (4-2).

Negaunee 21, Ishpeming 14 – What a turnaround for these Miners; after opening 0-3, Negaunee is 3-3 and put Ishpeming (2-4) in a position of needing to win out for a chance at an at-large playoff bid.

Lake Linden-Hubbell 24, Bark River-Harris 12 – The Lakes also are riding a comeback wave; they opened 0-3, but after having no game Week 4 have won two straight and this time put Bark River-Harris (3-3) into a must-win playoff situation.  

West Michigan

East Grand Rapids 28, Grand Rapids Christian 7

Reigning champion East Grand Rapids (6-0) took command of the Ottawa-Kent Conference Gold again by beating the Eagles by an identical score as in last year’s game, which also ended up deciding the league title. EGR lowered its points allowed average to 8.2 per game this fall. Still, this may not be over. Christian (5-1) is one of three teams one win behind in the league standings, and the Pioneers still must play the other two. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.

Also noted:

Rockford 27, Grandville 0 – The Rams lined up an O-K Red battle for first place this week against Holland West Ottawa by handing Grandville (4-2) its first league loss; depending on how this week goes, all three could end up sharing the title after Rockford and Grandville did so with Hudsonville in 2016.

Cedar Springs 28, Lowell 14 – It’s odd to call this an upset when Cedar Springs is 4-2, but Lowell (also 4-2) hadn’t lost an O-K White game since 2014 and this season has wins over leaders of two other leagues.  

Kent City 28, Morley Stanwood 0 – The Eagles (6-0) not only won a matchup of undefeated teams, but in doing so clinched a share of the Central State Activities Association Silver title against the now second-place Mohawks (5-1); the teams shared the title in 2016.

Wyoming Kelloggsville 21, Wyoming Godwin Heights 20 – This was the other half of the paring down in the O-K Silver; both entered undefeated, but Kelloggsville (6-0) is now tied with Belding atop the standings while Godwin Heights (5-1) fell a game back in a league with four of seven teams at 5-1 or better. 

8-Player

Morrice 33, Deckerville 32

Deckerville, last season’s 8-player MHSAA runner-up, has been considered a championship favorite all fall and still may be. But the Orioles (6-0) are in position to claim the North Central Thumb 8-Man League Stars division title after scoring a last-minute touchdown and converting a two-point conversion to hand the Eagles (5-1) their first league loss since 2014. Morrice must beat either Kingston this week or Lawrence in Week 8 to clinch a share NCTL Stars championship. Click for more from the Owosso Argus-Press.

Also noted:

Camden-Frontier 30, Bellevue 26 – The Redskins (6-0) have turned away both second-place teams in the Southern Central 8-Man Football League and can clinch a share of the title this week against Burr Oak; Bellevue (5-1) and Battle Creek St. Philip will be back in the mix with an upset.

Flint International Academy 78, Lawrence 74 – This set the MHSAA record for most points in an 8-player game when both teams score at least 40; Flint International (5-1) is tied for second in the NCTL Stars, but Lawrence (3-3) has scored the most points of any league team this season.

Kinde-North Huron 36, New Haven Merritt Academy 18 – The Warriors (5-1) held on to a first-place tie in the NCTL Stripes with Bay City All Saints; the Mustangs (3-3) have lost to both over the last three weeks.

Rudyard 30, Engadine 20 – The Bulldogs (5-1) still trail leaders Cedarville and Pickford in the Bridge Alliance Conference, but put themselves in position to earn a share of the league title if both falter over the next three weeks; Engadine (4-2) fell to fourth place but gets Cedarville next.

Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Student Financial Services Bureau located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information, including various student financial assistance programs to help make college more affordable for Michigan students. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 savings programs (MET/MESP) and eight additional aid programs within its Student Scholarships and Grants division. Click for more information and connect with MI Student Aid on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid. 

PHOTO: Davison defenders chase a Midland ball carrier during Friday's Chemics win. (Photo by Terry Lyons.)