Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Drive for Detroit: Week 7 in Review
October 10, 2016
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Upsets rang out during Week 7 of the high school football season, as league races and playoff hopes were turned sideways by unexpected finishes that played out all over our state.
See below for notes on this week's batch of results and the twists and turns they provided with only two weeks left in the regular season.
Bay & Thumb
Lake Fenton 22, Corunna 20
Lake Fenton clinched its first league title since 2007 by winning this matchup of former co-leaders in the Genesee Area Conference Red. The Blue Devils (7-0) were outgained in yardage 293-286 but intercepted a pass and recovered a fumble, and got rushing and receiving touchdowns from Trent Hillger including the game-winner with 3:24 to play. Reigning league champ Corunna (6-1) led 20-14 heading into the fourth quarter but gave up a safety with 4:51 left in regulation; Lake Fenton went ahead on the ensuing possession. Click for more from the Flint Journal.
Also noted:
Davison 28, Lapeer 7 – It took an extra day to get done because of Friday’s storms, but Davison (7-0) held on to clinch a share of the Saginaw Valley League Red title while knocking the Lightning (5-2) into a second-place tie, one win back with a league game to play.
Brown City 24, Harbor Beach 16 – The Green Devils (3-4) are holding out hope for an at-large playoff bid, but did move into second place with Harbor Beach (4-3) in the Greater Thumb Conference East after knocking the Pirates out of first; Harbor Beach plays leader Ubly this week with a chance to create a three-way tie for the title.
Unionville-Sebewaing 28, Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker 21 – The Patriots (6-1) have rebounded off an opening night loss to Ubly to win six straight and claim a share of the GTC West title, with former co-leader Laker (6-1) now in second and hoping Vassar can beat USA this week.
Freeland 29, Saginaw Swan Valley 14 – The Falcons clinched a share of the Tri-Valley Conference Central title and with only winless Bullock Creek left on the league schedule; Swan Valley (4-3) sat a win back of Freeland (7-0) heading into the night but fell into third place with the loss.
Greater Detroit
Birmingham Groves 18, Rochester Adams 8
The Oakland Activities Association White has been one of the state’s most competitive conference this fall, which makes Groves’ success that much more impressive. The Falcons (7-0) clinched a share of the league title with this victory and can clinch outright this week against sixth-place Farmington; they were champions of the OAA Blue in 2015. Adams (5-2) fell into third place after having a chance to clinch a share instead; Oak Park still can take a share with a win this week against Seaholm combined with a Farmington upset Friday. Click for more from the Oakland Press.
Also noted:
Redford Union 22, Redford Thurston 15 – The Panthers clinched their best finish since at least 2007 with their first win over rival Thurston since 2008; Union is 5-2 and can clinch its first playoff berth since 2006 this week against Dearborn Heights Annapolis (1-6).
Madison Heights Madison 17, Warren Fitzgerald 15 – The Eagles (4-3) bounced back from two straight nonleague losses to hand Fitzgerald (6-1) its first defeat and create a three-way tie for first place in the Macomb Area Conference Silver between these two and South Lake and with one more league game to play.
Romeo 31, Warren Mott 8 – The reigning MHSAA Division 1 champion Bulldogs (5-2) may have two losses, but they are by a combined three points; handing Warren Mott (6-1) its first loss sets Romeo up with a chance to claim a share of the MAC Red title with a win over Dakota and and a Mott win this week over leader Utica Eisenhower.
Detroit Catholic Central 28, Orchard Lake St. Mary’s 7 – The Shamrocks (7-0) broke a two-game losing streak to now second-place St. Mary’s (4-3) to hold on to first in the Detroit Catholic League Central with Warren DeLaSalle up next in the final game before Prep Bowl weekend.
Mid-Michigan
Breckenridge 12, Merrill 0
Sure, Breckenridge (0-9 in 2015) impressed everyone with a 5-0 start this fall. But with the expected favorites in the Mid-State Activities Conference lined up for Weeks 6, 7 and 8, there was no way the Huskies could claim a share of their first league title since 1947, right? Breckenridge (7-0) has answered with two straight shutouts of Carson City-Crystal and now Merrill (5-2) to win the MSAC title outright, regardless of what happens this week against Vestaburg (5-2). Click for more from the Midland Daily News.
Also noted:
Clare 35, Roscommon 24 – The excitement in the Jack Pine Conference had been the surge of Roscommon (6-1), but old stand-by Clare (6-1) set itself up to reclaim the league title after missing last year by winning this matchup of what were the co-leaders heading into the night.
DeWitt 27, St. Johns 7 – The Panthers (6-1) added a 43rd-straight league win and claimed the Capital Area Activities Conference Red title outright against the Redwings (3-4), who fell into third with the loss.
East Lansing 21, Lansing Sexton 6 – By winning this matchup of what were the second-place teams in the CAAC Blue, the Trojans (5-2) gave themselves a chance to earn a share of the title with leader Grand Ledge up next; Sexton (4-3) will turn its focus to securing a playoff berth against two opponents who are a combined 2-12.
Fowler 16, Dansville 14 – The Eagles (5-2) can’t claim a share of the Central Michigan Athletic Conference title even with a win against rival Pewamo-Westphalia this week, but look a lot better for making the playoffs with undefeated P-W and two-loss Merrill left on the schedule; Dansville (4-3) still has a nice shot too needing wins against two opponents who are a combined 5-9.
Northern Lower Peninsula
Charlevoix 16, Onekama 9
The Northern Michigan Football Conference Leaders division has four teams (of five total) with records of at least 5-2; Charlevoix not only earned a playoff berth with this win after missing at 5-4 last fall, but also set itself up to play first-place Frankfort this week to earn a share of the league championship. The Red Rayders (6-1) scored all of their points during the first half and held Onekama (5-2) scoreless over the final 18 minutes. The Portagers might be out of the league race, but can still earn a third-straight playoff berth over the next two weeks and potentially play spoiler with Frankfort coming up in Week 9. Click for more from the Petoskey News-Review.
Also noted:
Hillman 56, Oscoda 42 – After opening 0-3, the Tigers have won four straight and have a shot to extend a 10-season playoff streak; Oscoda (3-4) has fallen in three straight and must win out and hope for an at-large bid.
Whittemore Prescott 22, Rogers City 12 – The Cardinals (4-3) kept themselves alive to add to a nine-season playoff streak, while putting Rogers City (3-4) also in a position of needing to win out and hope to get in at-large.
Traverse City West 16, Cadillac 14 – After losses to rival Central and Benton Harbor by five points or fewer, West (5-2) showed it could win close too and against another strong opponent; Cadillac also is 5-2 and looking for one more win to make the postseason.
Gaylord St. Mary 42, Johannesburg-Lewiston 14 – The Snowbirds (6-1) are one of the best turnaround stories of this season, going from 3-6 a year ago to earning their first playoff berth since 2009; the Cardinals (3-4) must win out for a chance to keep a five-year playoffs streak going.
Southwest Corridor
Coldwater 19, Battle Creek Harper Creek 7
This looked at first glance like the upset of the weekend, but on closer inspection maybe shouldn’t be because Coldwater (5-2) has remained pretty impressive despite a couple of losses. Those defeats were by a point in overtime to Jackson Lumen Christi and 10 points in Week 2 to Marshall, both teams among the top four in the Interstate 8 Athletic Conference. The reigning champ Cardinals need a few things to happen to claim a share of the league title this time – it would take a win over Hastings this week plus losses by Harper Creek (6-1) and Lumen Christi – but if nothing else, won’t be a desirable opponent come playoff time. Click for more from the Battle Creek Enquirer.
Also noted:
St. Joseph Lake Michigan Catholic 24, Bridgman 19 – After going 2-7 a year ago, the Lakers (6-1) have bounced back and earned a playoff berth and a share of the Berrien-Cass-St. Joseph Conference Blue title by avenging last season’s 28-0 loss to Bridgman (4-3).
Schoolcraft 42, Gobles 0 – The Eagles (7-0) repeated as Southwestern Athletic Conference Central champions by beating second-place Lawton and this weekend third-place Gobles (5-2) by a combined score of 98-7.
Berrien Springs 47, Parchment 13 – The Shamrocks (4-2) set up a championship game this week in the BCS Red by becoming the first team since opening night to hold Parchment (4-3) to fewer than 31 points.
Watervliet 64, Delton Kellogg 34 – No opponent has been able to completely shut down Watervliet (5-2), which has scored at least 30 in all seven games and earned a shared SAC Lakeshore title (with Constantine) by knocking Delton Kellogg (4-3) into third place in the final game of the league schedule.
Southeast & Border
Hudson 35, Ida 34
Ida’s 12-game winning streak in the Lenawee County Athletic Association is over thanks to Hudson, which bounced back from a Week 6 loss to Hillsdale to edge the Bluestreaks and move into a tie with them atop the league standings. But this conference title hardly is determined. Ida (6-1) now must play Hillsdale, and Hudson (6-1) has a Week 9 game left with Blissfield – which beat Hillsdale this week. Click for more from the Adrian Daily Telegram.
Also noted:
Blissfield 27, Hillsdale 7 – This first win over Hillsdale (4-3) by the Royals (3-4) in eight tries over the last two decades also helped throw the LCAA standings into a spin, with both of these teams now among five either in first place or a win out with two league games to play.
Concord 41, Quincy 24 – The Yellow Jackets’ title hopes remain alive as they stayed among three first-place teams in the Big 8 Conference (and moved to 6-1 overall) while sending Quincy (5-2) a win back.
Ottawa Lake Whiteford 30, Morenci 26 – The Bobcats (7-0) set up an unofficial Tri-County Conference championship game this week with Sand Creek by surviving Morenci (4-3), which has lost its three games by a combined eight points.
Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 30, Milan 20 – Nemesis SMCC (4-3) struck again with Milan needing a win to clinch a share of the Huron League title; the Big Reds (6-1) are back in a first-place tie with Grosse Ile with the Falcons and New Boston Huron only a win back with one more league game to play.
Upper Peninsula
Negaunee 28, Ishpeming 16
Two losses to Ishpeming in games that decided Mid-Peninsula Athletic Conference titles over the last four seasons no doubt made this victory sweeter for Negaunee (7-0), even if the Hematites aren’t in the hunt this time around. The Miners did clinch a share of the conference championship with the win and put the Hematites (3-3) in a position of needing to win out to guarantee a 15th straight playoff appearance. Click for more from the Marquette Mining Journal.
Also noted:
Escanaba 19, Gladstone 12 – The Eskymos (6-1) clinched a playoff berth and guaranteed their best finish since 2011, but another win also will give Gladstone (3-4) its best record since 2010.
Gwinn 60, Hancock 32 – The Modeltowners (5-2) now have their best season since 2000 after going 3-6 a year ago, but a strong finish by Hancock (4-3) can net the Bulldogs their first playoff berth since 2006.
Lake Linden-Hubbell 28, Houghton 0 – The Lakes (7-0) took advantage of their break in the Mid-Eastern Conference schedule to put up their first shutout of the fall against a Houghton team that at 3-4 now must win out to have hopes of earning an at-large playoff bid.
Kingsford 35, Iron Mountain 0 – The Flivvers (5-2) put up their third shutout this season and fifth win in a row over Iron Mountain (5-2), which hadn’t been held scoreless since 2014.
West Michigan
Zeeland East 12, Hudsonville Unity Christian 7
Unity Christian (6-1) had looked close to unstoppable coming into Friday, having won key games close and others by big margins. But Zeeland East (6-1) – which had fallen this season only to Hamilton in Week 3 – won a defensive battle that saw both teams score their fewest points this fall. The Chix – who moved into the Ottawa-Kent Conference Green this season from the O-K Black – next get league leader Byron Center with a chance to further mash up a race that has seen a handful of teams emerge as the favorite at some point or another over the last few weeks. Click for more from the Holland Sentinel.
Also noted:
Zeeland West 42, Hamilton 24 – The Dux (5-2) aren’t too familiar with life in fifth place, but have started to climb as well in the O-K Green, handing former leader Hamilton (5-2) its second straight loss.
Ravenna 29, Whitehall 28 – Ravenna (5-2) handed Whitehall (4-3) a one-point loss for the second week in a row and by doing so got a win closer to locking up a playoff berth after going 3-6 in 2015.
Lowell 41, Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 37 – Many eyes were tuned in to updates from this game Friday as Forest Hills Central (5-2) led by 17 with 11:30 to play – but Lowell went ahead less than 10 minutes later to remain atop the O-K White standings and undefeated at 7-0.
Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern 36, Cedar Springs 29 – The Huskies (4-3) broke a three-game losing streak to Cedar Springs (3-4) to set up a title chance this week against the Red Arrows.
8-Player
Engadine 52, Cedarville 42
Engadine trailed into the second half, but one of the best wins in Eagles history only got better because of the dramatic finish. They moved to 7-0 for the first time since 1998 and earned a share of the Bridge-Alliance Football League title against a Cedarville program that has lost only five league games total in five seasons of 8-player football. The Trojans (6-1) hadn’t let an opponent get closer than 20 points this fall. Click for more from 9&10 News.
Also noted:
Wyoming Tri-unity Christian 53, Lawrence 14 – Make the Defenders (7-0) another contender for the MHSAA title next month, as this 39-point win over previously-undefeated Lawrence (6-1) was their closest game yet.
Portland St. Patrick 16, Webberville 12 – The Shamrocks (7-0) earned the first win of the Central Michigan 8-Man Conference schedule with Webberville (5-2) producing the toughest competition St. Patrick has seen so far.
Stephenson 52, Rapid River 8 – The Eagles (6-1) could be lurking in the Western Eight Conference, with this win over Rapid River (5-2) their most impressive and leader Powers North Central coming up in Week 9.
PHOTO: A Northville receiver hauls in a pass during his team's 30-24 win over Livonia Stevenson on Friday. (Click to see more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)