Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15
October 26, 2015
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.
The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.
And then the fun begins again.
But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.
For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2015
Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131 – with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).
Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.
Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.
Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.
- Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
- Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
- The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.
At the end of the day ...
What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.
Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.
Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.
Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.
Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game.
It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible.
But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.
Drive for Detroit: Week 6 in Review
October 3, 2016
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
A total of 52 Michigan high school football teams celebrated 6-0 starts this past weekend and qualifying for the MHSAA playoffs set to begin in four weeks. A handful more celebrated the first league championships awarded this season.
And we’re just getting started.
Take a look below at the results that rang most significant from Week 6, including a number of games that set up what we’ll be watching as the regular season heads into its final third.
Bay & Thumb
Davison 20, Midland 0
The Saginaw Valley League Red race appears down to two teams after Davison handed Midland its first league loss of this season. The Cardinals – now 6-0 and with more wins than in any season total since 2012 – take on co-leader Lapeer this week. Midland does remain in the hunt, however; the Chemics (3-3) get Lapeer in Week 8 with a chance to share the title if the Lightning is successful Friday. Click for more from the Midland Daily News.
Also noted:
Fenton 54, Holly 35 – The Tigers (4-2) are among teams that dropped their first game or two but have come back strong, and now sit a win ahead of Holly (4-2) and two others atop the Flint Metro League standings.
Marine City 27, St. Clair 6 – The Mariners (2-4) continued their run at finishing a 34th straight winning season by earning their second victory in a row, with St. Clair falling to 3-3.
Unionville-Sebewaing 20, Reese 12 – The Patriots (5-1) held on to a share of the lead in the Greater Thumb Conference West with a third straight win over Reese (4-2).
Flint Carman-Ainsworth 34, Bay City Central 34 – The Cavaliers (4-2) remain tied atop the Saginaw Valley League Blue with Midland Dow after facing their toughest challenge this season from Central (3-3).
Greater Detroit
Detroit Cass Tech 31, Detroit Martin Luther King 18
The Technicians (6-0) were held to their fewest points this season, but the story was Cass Tech’s defense. King (5-1) hadn’t scored fewer than 39 points in a game since last season’s Division 2 Regional Final win over Detroit East English and put up 31 and 27 in beating Cass Tech twice last fall. And just like in 2015, don’t be stunned if these two face off again in the Detroit Public School League final at Ford Field in three weeks. Click for more from MLive-Detroit.
Also noted:
Allen Park 23, Trenton 10 – The Jaguars (6-0) now hold a one-win lead in the Downriver League on both Trenton (5-1) and Wyandotte Roosevelt with three games to play and victories over both.
Warren Cousino 36, Grosse Pointe North 33 – Cousino (5-1) hasn’t been considered a football power for about a decade, but the Patriots are creeping toward their best finish since 2007 and sit in first in the Macomb Area Conference Blue after dealing Grosse Pointe North (4-2) a first league loss.
Birmingham Groves 14, Farmington Hills Harrison 7 (OT) – The Falcons (6-0) won their second Oakland Activities Association White game by seven points or fewer this fall to remain a half-win ahead of Rochester Adams, this week’s opponent, and send Harrison to 3-3.
Oak Park 14, Clarkston 7 – The Knights (4-2) are a win back in the OAA White standings but have two of the league’s most impressive victories over Adams and now Clarkston (4-2), which is tied for second in the OAA Red.
Mid-Michigan
Breckenridge 38, Carson City-Crystal 0
One of the state’s top turnaround stories keeps getting better. The Huskies, 6-0 after going 0-9 only a year ago, clinched their first playoff berth since 1993 while taking over first place in the Mid-State Activities Conference alone by handing the Eagles (4-2) their first league loss. Breckenridge hasn’t won six games in a season since 1994. Click for more from the Mount Pleasant Morning Sun.
Also noted:
Ithaca 17, Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary 6 – The Yellowjackets (6-0) had beaten the rest of their Tri-Valley Conference West opponents by at least 27 and now look good to clinch at least a share of the title after fending off the Cardinals (4-2).
Howell 48, Grand Blanc 46 – Not only did the Highlanders (4-2) end a five-game losing streak to the Bobcats (4-2), but they opened up a chance to claim a share of the Kensington Lakes Activities Association West title against Brighton in Week 8.
Pewamo-Westphalia 40, Laingsburg 7 – The Pirates (6-0) did score their fewest points since opening night and also gave up their first score since Week 1, but still win comfortably to hold on to first place in the Central Michigan Athletic Conference, a win ahead of the Wolfpack (5-1).
Lake Odessa Lakewood 34, Olivet 27 – The Vikings (6-0) clinched a share of a second straight Greater Lansing Activities Conference title, potentially relegating Olivet (4-2) to second place for the second straight season as well.
Northern Lower Peninsula
Frankfort 26, Maple City Glen Lake 21
This matchup for first place in the Northern Michigan Football Conference Leaders division was as good as billed, with Frankfort holding on to a slim lead as the only team without a league loss. The Panthers (6-0) scored the go-ahead points this time with just more than four minutes to play, and a final drive by Glen Lake (4-2) ended in a turnover. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.
Also noted:
Boyne City 21, Kalkaska 14 – The Ramblers (4-2) continued their rebound from an 0-2 start by possibly eliminating another contender in the NMFC Legends division; Kalkaska (5-1) is a win back of Boyne City and Traverse City St. Francis in the league standings.
Charlevoix 21, East Jordan 0 – The Red Rayders (5-1) bounced back from a tough Week 5 loss to Glen Lake with a third straight shutout of East Jordan (4-2) – which is hoping to rebound and earn its first playoff berth since 2003.
AuGres-Sims 22, Whittemore-Prescott 20 – The Wolverines (5-1) kept pace a half-win behind leader Lincoln Alcona in the North Star League by winning their first meeting with the Cardinals (3-3) since 1992.
Cadillac 16, Gaylord 12 – The Vikings (5-1) hung on for a Homecoming win to remain tied for first in the Big North Conference and send Gaylord (2-4) potentially out of playoff contention.
Southeast & Border
Milan 27, Grosse Ile 6
The Big Reds may be breathing only a little easier after taking over first place alone in the Huron League and sending Grosse Ile (5-1) into second place. Two league games remain, and nemesis Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central is up next for Milan, which surely will be amped up after losing the title-decider to the Falcons last year. Click for more from the Southgate News-Herald.
Also noted:
Hillsdale 14, Hudson 6 – The Hornets (4-2) kept themselves in the Lenawee County Athletic Association discussion by knocking Hudson (5-1) out of a first-place tie with Ida; both now trail the leader by a win and play Ida successively over the next two weeks.
Jackson Lumen Christi 21, Coldwater 20 (OT) – The Titans (4-2) have avenged both of their 2015 Interstate 8 Athletic Conference losses over the last two weeks and sit a win back of league leader Harper Creek, this week’s opponent for the reigning champ Cardinals (4-2).
Sand Creek 12, Clinton 7 – Just as Morenci’s win the week before over Clinton was one of its best in some time, Sand Creek (6-0) can claim the same as it held on to a first-place tie in the Tri-County Conference while likely knocking the reigning champ Redskins (4-2) out of contention.
Springport 20, Concord 16 – Concord (5-1) had won three games by a touchdown or less to take the lead in the Big 8 Conference, but first place is now a tie between the Yellowjackets, Springport (5-1), Quincy and Homer; Springport’s only loss was by two to the Trojans.
Southwest Corridor
Constantine 60, Watervliet 58
The Southwestern Athletic Conference Lakeshore race has three first-place teams with one game to play, with Constantine, Watervliet and Delton Kellogg all 3-1 in league play and Watervliet playing Delton next. This Falcons/Panthers matchup mirrored at least in score Constantine’s 49-48 Division 6 District Final win last fall. This time, the teams combed for more than 1,000 yards of total offense. Click for more from JoeInsider.com.
Also noted:
Benton Harbor 21, Traverse City West 16 – Benton Harbor (6-0) continued its best start since 1985 with a second straight and second-ever playoff berth after beating West (4-2), which has lost its two games by a combined seven points.
Climax-Scotts 48, Pittsford 28 – The Panthers (6-0) ran their Southern Central Athletic Association winning streak to 48 in clinching a share of this season’s championship and sending Pittsford (3-3) into a tie for second place.
Kalamazoo Central 14, Battle Creek Lakeview 7 – Central (3-3) moved into first place in the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference East by handing the reigning co-champ Spartans (3-2) their second straight loss – and second straight by seven or fewer points.
Schoolcraft 56, Lawton 7 – Second-place Gobles still can shake things up a bit this week, but Schoolcraft claimed (6-0) a share of the SAC Central championship by knocking Lawton (5-1) out of the tie for first.
Upper Peninsula
Menominee 28, Escanaba 14
The Eskymos are playing their best football since the start of this decade, but the Great Northern U.P. Conference looks to still belong to Menominee (6-0) after this matchup of previously undefeated teams. The Maroons can clinch a share of the league title this week against Sault Ste. Marie and still haven't given up more than 14 points in a game. Escanaba (5-1) hadn’t given up more than 13 in a game but did hold Menominee to a season low. Click for more from the Escanaba Daily Press.
Also noted:
Calumet 34, Iron River West Iron County 7 – The Copper Kings (5-1) pulled within a win of clinching a share of the West-Peninsula Athletic Conference title by downing West Iron (3-3); Calumet’s final two league games are against teams that are a combined 1-11.
St. Ignace 36, Gaylord St. Mary 8 – The Saints (5-1) are one of the first league champions of 2016 after clinching a share of the NMFC Legacy title by sending St. Mary (5-1) into a four-team tie for second place.
Hancock 47, Hurley, Wis. 40 – The Bulldogs (4-2) most likely ended Hurley’s West-PAC chances and gave themselves an outside shot while continuing their best season since at least 2010.
Negaunee 28, Norway 14 – The Miners (6-0) remain the only undefeated team in the Mid-Peninsula Athletic Conference and can clinch a share of the league title this week against rival Ishpeming, with Norway (5-1) and Iron Mountain cheering for the Hematites.
West Michigan
Rockford 7, Grandville 6
The Ottawa-Kent Conference Red is not a league teams come to looking to rebound from a slow start. But it's been quite a month for Rockford (4-2), which opened 0-2 and now finds itself back in the driver's seat in the Red after just surviving the league's top team to date. Grandville (5-1) had beaten all of its opponents by at least 30, but now will be rooting especially for Hudsonville in Week 9 to beat Rockford and create a shared championship. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.
Also noted:
East Grand Rapids 28, Grand Rapids Christian 7 – The Pioneers (4-2) moved to the top of the O-K Gold standings ahead of the Eagles (5-1), running their streak to two straight over Christian after losing their regular-season meeting but winning their playoff rematch last fall.
Byron Center 54, Hamilton 32 – The Bulldogs (5-1) have turned the O-K Green into a two-team race by delivering upstart Hamilton (5-1) the first loss of an otherwise outstanding turnaround season.
North Muskegon 14, Montague 6 – In one of the weekend’s biggest shockers, North Muskegon (2-4) handed West Michigan Conference co-leader Montague (5-1) its first defeat; Montague now trails Muskegon Oakridge by a win.
Reed City 12, Remus Chippewa Hills 8 – The Coyotes (6-0) can clinch a share of the Central State Activities Association Gold title this week after just edging former co-leader Chippewa Hills (5-1).
8-Player
New Haven Merritt 36, Owendale-Gagetown 32
This arguably is the best win of Merritt’s five-season history. Although these teams play in different divisions of the Mid-Michigan 8-Man Football League, they lead those divisions. During its first season, 2012, Merritt (6-0) lost both of its games to Owendale-Gagetown by at least 50 points; the Mustangs cut the deficit to 24 when the teams met last October. The Bulldogs (5-1) had won 16 straight regular-season games. Click for more from the Huron Daily Tribune.
Also noted:
Lawrence 32, Camden-Frontier 8 – The Redskins absolutely have been impressive with a 4-1 start, but Lawrence (6-0) proved to still be another level above at this point in the season.
Webberville 16, Battle Creek St. Philip 14 – These two at this point are among what would be the final teams selected for the 16-team playoff field, and Webberville (5-1) owns a nice advantage now – although St. Philip (4-2) still has plenty of opportunities to secure its spot.
PHOTO: Breckenridge quarterback Carter Staley (10) breaks away during the Huskies' win over Carson City-Crystal on Friday. (Photo courtesy of Gratiot County Herald.)