Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '15

October 26, 2015

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Consider that one hour Sunday night was the product of nine weeks of games on top of two more weeks of practice, hours of lifting weights, conditioning and camps and a total of six months of work at the MHSAA office, in addition to hours upon hours put in by athletic directors scheduling years in advance.

The anticipation for the release of another year's MHSAA Football Playoff pairings is matched by a giant exhale only after the results are broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit, streamed online and posted on locker room doors and Facebook walls all over our state.

And then the fun begins again. 

But the Selection Sunday Show is the favorite hour of the season for many fans across our state. And that’s why, for the fifth year, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2015 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions.

For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2015.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were a record-low 216 automatic qualifiers by win total – with the final 40 at-large then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams each from Class A, Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2015  

Go north with ease: For the most part, most Regional pairings were easier to draw than in past years. For the most part. Divisions 2 and 4 were not easy, specifically when it came to deciding which teams would be paired with an Upper Peninsula qualifier or a team from the Traverse City area. Keep in mind, distance on these maps isn’t based on how the bird flies, but how a bus would drive. In Division 2, that meant putting Muskegon, Muskegon Mona Shores and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern – near U.S. 31 and U.S. 131  with Traverse City Central instead of sending Midland and Midland Dow west, up I-75 and then east-to-west again on more non-highway roads. In Division 4, we considered pairing Alma and Saginaw Swan Valley with Escanaba instead of Big Rapids and Remus Chippewa Hills. That decision came down to Big Rapids being about 14 miles closer to Escanaba than Swan Valley (Whitehall would go with Big Rapids and Chippewa Hills regardless.).

Four counties wide: Yes, on first glance it looks a little odd that Bay City John Glenn and Orchard Lake St. Mary’s would be in the same Division 3 District – but look at the map as a whole. Eight Division 3 teams are located south and mostly east of St. Mary’s, and John Glenn is the only team that could be considered in the northeastern quarter of the Lower Peninsula (Mount Pleasant and Gaylord are right down the middle and naturals to go with Sault Ste. Marie and Petoskey.). With the thumb playoff qualifiers of near-similar size in Division 4, there were no other options than to create this four-county trip between the Eaglets and Bobcats.

Semifinal selection: When all the Regional lines are drawn for a division, we also must figure out which Regionals will meet for Semifinals. This annually provides some challenges. Do we match east vs. west or north vs. south? If something seems iffy in four weeks when those games are played, again, keep in mind the entire map and entire Regionals that are matched up.

Scheduled strong: Because we’re looking only at dots on a map, we don’t see the matchups until everything is drawn – and in that way, we’re like everyone else. It wasn’t lost on us that two 9-0 teams will have road games this week or three 5-4 at-large qualifiers will be at home. For those 9-0 teams, it’s true: there’s nothing more they could’ve done on the field. But here’s why they will travel.

  • Clinton, in Division 6, hasn’t lost a regular-season game since 2011, and in fact plays in a strong Tri-County Conference made up of Class C schools and one Class D. Four of eight from the league made the playoffs, and the competition was so strong that Morenci and Petersburg-Summerfield will host games in Division 8. But Clinton’s opponent, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, while it did have one loss, fell to one-loss Class B Lansing Catholic – and the Falcons played eight Class B and one Class A school this season. Beating a Class B team is worth 16 points more than beating a Class C and 32 more than beating a Class D (with those points then divided over the number of games a team plays that season) – and all of that made the difference in St. Mary’s final eight-point playoff average edge over Clinton.
  • Saugatuck in Division 7 is a similar story. The Indians are one of three undefeated teams in their District, and did play a pair of Class B opponents. But by no fault of their own, especially in league play where the schedule is set, Saugatuck didn’t face a team this season that won more than five games. Hesperia played three Class B opponents including one that finished 6-3 – enough for the slim 1.8 points more in playoff average that earned the Panthers homefield advantage. Pewamo-Westphalia has the highest average in the District and didn’t play a Class B – the Pirates actually played three Class D teams. But they also beat four teams that made the playoffs including two that finished 8-1 – giving them a 2.7-point edge on Hesperia and 4.5 edge on Saugatuck.
  • The 5-4 teams that will host – Redford Thurston in Division 3 and Escanaba and Benton Harbor in Division 4, all earned their spots. Escanaba faced six playoff teams and beat three, Class B Benton Harbor played eight Class A teams, and Thurston played five playoff teams and a sixth that just missed an at-large bid.  

At the end of the day ... 

What you see is what our committee decided upon after multiple discussions among multiple groups that broke down every sensible possibility we could muster. There are certainly points open to argument – and we likely made those arguments as well.

Those who would like to see the playoff selection process changed are in favor of a larger strength-of-schedule component, and it’s interesting to see how strength of schedule inadvertently made a larger impact this season than in the recent past – especially given the examples above of undefeated teams going on the road and at-large teams hosting.

Why were there fewer automatic qualifiers than ever before? Here's one theory. There were 11 fewer teams in 11-player football this season than in 2014 (most moved to 8-player). An argument can be made that there were fewer wins to be gained against teams that last season might have struggled to field 11-player teams, shifting the balance to fewer automatic qualifiers and more parity with stronger teams facing each other to fill their schedules.

Meanwhile, the 8-player field grew by nine teams this fall and has its strongest ever, with seven teams that finished 5-4 missing the postseason after a team with a sub-.500 record got in just a year ago.

Given how some matchups shook out this fall, the next argument by those seeking change likely will center on seeding entire Regionals instead of just Districts. But keep this in mind as well: if Regionals were seeded with this year's groupings, it would create possibilities of first-week trips like Battle Creek to Traverse City and Cedar Springs to Sault Ste. Marie. We're fairly sure most coaches and players would dread such journeys for a first-round game. 

It's a lot to digest, and the scrutinizing will surely continue long after these playoffs are done as we all work to conduct the best tournament possible. 

But at the end of the day – and the end of these next five weeks – to be the best, teams will need to beat the best no matter the matchups. And we’ve got plenty to look forward to starting this weekend and all the way through the 11-player Division 3 Final on Nov. 28 at Ford Field.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTO: The Division 4 map was among the most difficult to draw during this year's selection process.

St Phil Football Thrives with 8 on Field

By Pam Shebest
Special for MHSAA.com

August 22, 2016

BATTLE CREEK — Five years ago, the future of football at Battle Creek St. Philip looked rather bleak.

The Fighting Tigers had won just three games over the previous two years, and numbers continued to dwindle.

“Our last year of 11-man, I think we had 18 boys out for football,” said Dave Downey, who has coached at St. Phil for more than 20 years. “We were not competitive playing 11-man.

“The kids just weren’t coming out because it wasn’t fun. We were getting beat all the time.”

The school decided to go to 8-player football, and the program has thrived.

Last season, the school’s fourth playing 8-player, St. Phil finished 12-1, losing only 58-33 in the MHSAA 8-player Final to Powers North Central.

“After we went to 8-man (five years ago), we had 28 on the roster,” Downey said. “The program really grew because we went to 8-man. It actually saved the program.”

The transition was not without a few fumbles.

“We didn’t know what we were in for,” Downey said. “That first year we struggled a little bit. We ended the season 7-4, but we learned a lot.

“It was an eye-opener for us. We didn’t know what to expect.”

Although the length of the field for 8-player is still 100 yards, the width is five yards fewer on each side.

That first season, Downey said he had confidence his 8-player team could play on an 11-man regulation field – but soon found out why the field is not as wide.

“Our first year, we didn’t move the markers in and we couldn’t cover the field, especially anyone with speed who would get on the outside and go,” he said.

“Our first game, we lost bad because we thought we could play on a big field, which we couldn’t.”

This year’s nine seniors have played 8-player all four years, but it gets even better than that for St. Phil.

“They’ve actually played 10 playoff games already (over four years), so they’ve already played (the equivalent of) four seasons,” Downey said.

“This is almost like their fifth season. Experience-wise, this group of seniors is really valuable.”

Success and motivation

Last Thursday, St. Phil scrimmaged Lawrence and then Big Rapids Crossroads to get game experience before opening the season this Friday at Kingston.

“We didn’t keep score, but it went well,” Downey said. “It was good experience for some of the younger kids, especially the freshmen, to play and learn.”

He said the veterans, especially the co-captains, are like having extra coaches on the field.

“They know exactly what our schemes are and our blocking patterns and they really help us out,” he said. “Our line is coming back. We’re solid up front. 

“We have Noah Ellinger, our captain; Grant Hallacy who started last year as our other guard; Andy Forche at center and all of them played a lot last year on the line.”

Senior co-captain Grayson Obey has played football since fourth grade and said going from the traditional 11-player in Rocket youth football and middle school football to 8-player was no big deal.

“I think going from middle school to high school, not 11-man to 8-man, was harder,” he said.

Obey said last year’s success is a great motivator.

“We got a taste of a really good team last year, so it’s good motivation to work hard and try to push to get that again this year,” he said.

Ellinger agrees that the transition to 8-player was not a big deal.

“It’s two less linemen and I’m a lineman, so it’s just kind of shortening it up a little bit,” he said.

Playing both ways on the field takes some getting used to at the beginning of the season, Ellinger said.

“The first couple games it’s pretty hard,” he said. “You’ve got to learn to manage your time. It’s kind of tiring, but you get used to it.”

Downey said the parents like 8-player because “it is a little bit safer.

“We don’t have as many big kids on the field as 11-man. When you have the big kids, the little kids are the ones who seem to be getting hurt all the time.”

St. Phil lost all-state quarterback Brendan Gausselin to graduation, but Downey is eyeing sophomore Ryan Reincke and freshman Connor Gausselin for the position while senior Drew Lantinga recovers from a basketball injury.

“Last year Drew played wide receiver and linebacker,” Downey said. “He was the leading tackler on the team last year at linebacker.”

Connor Gausselin is Brendan’s brother.

“My brother played football and was pretty good, so I want to follow in his legacy,” Connor Gausselin said. “He’s helped me a lot. In every sport I play, I like being in control like a leader, so quarterback is a leader on the field and I like that.

“I’m very excited. My brother said high school football is the best part of high school, being under the Friday night lights. It will be fun.”

8-player grows statewide

Enrollment numbers are key to 8-player football in Michigan.

Of St. Phil’s 140 students, 21 are on the football team.

While Michigan has 564 schools playing 11-player, the state had 40 playoff-eligible 8-player teams last season. Currently, 48 teams are eligible for the postseason heading into this fall's first games. 

Only Class D schools are eligible for playoffs, and enrollment must be 206 or fewer this year.

Class C schools or those with larger enrollments (cutoff was 212 students for the 2015 season) may compete in 8-player but they are not eligible for postseason play.

This fall, four Class C schools are competing in 8-player: Kingston, which was Class D last year; Dryden, Rudyard and Grand Traverse Academy. The latter two fielded 11-player teams last season.

Burton Madison Academy was Class C last year but dropped to Class D this year and is now eligible for postseason play.

St. Phil plays in the Southern Michigan 8-Man League with Tekonsha, Burr Oak, Camden Frontier, Waldron and Litchfield.

Other seniors on the Tigers are Tim Minier, Mike Scriber, Ben Swagler, Alex Yacovoni and Jordan Snyder. The other juniors are Justice Steiner and Morgan Bohannon.

Other sophomores are Chris Kubasiak, JC Downey, Nolan Kersten and Brodie Landstra. Other freshmen are Marcel Williams, Charley Harrington and Gus Strenge.

Assistant coaches are Jack Brown, Marc Pessetti and Jeff Minier.

Pam Shebest served as a sportswriter at the Kalamazoo Gazette from 1985-2009 after 11 years part-time with the Gazette while teaching French and English at White Pigeon High School. She can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Calhoun, Kalamazoo and Van Buren counties.

PHOTOS: (Top) Battle Creek St. Philip’s Drew Lantinga hauls in a pass last season; he’s moving to quarterback this fall. (Middle top) Dave Downey, Noah Ellinger, Grayson Obey. (Middle below) Senior Tim Minier surges after taking a hand-off during practice earlier this month. (Below) Ben Swagler pushes ahead during the Tigers’ 2015 win over Portland St. Patrick. (Photos from 2015 courtesy of Battle Creek St. Philip; practice photo and head shots by Pam Shebest.)