Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '16
October 24, 2016
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
There was a wheel and something that looked like a magic wand. Another started out looking like the head of a caterpillar.
A number of Michigan football teams realized their sky-high dreams with Sunday’s playoff selection announcement on Fox Sports Detroit.
But earlier that day, as is the case at the end of each fall, shaping this season’s tournament at times looked a little like finding pictures in the clouds.
Beginning last night and into this morning, MHSAA staff have been busily gathering game days and times for this weekend’s opening round. We’re assigning officials for those contests. Schools are preparing for what likely will be one of their biggest crowds of the season. And, of course, teams are preparing for what surely will be one of their most memorable games.
But before all of that could begin, we met Sunday morning with nine maps of Michigan and 272 dots that needed to be organized to set another playoffs in motion.
As we’ve done the past five seasons, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2016 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2016.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were 218 automatic qualifiers by win total – only two more than the record low set a year ago – with the final 38 at-large qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. For the second consecutive season there were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams from Class A and 11 each from Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2016
First things, first: Congratulations to five first-time playoff qualifiers – Bloomfield Hills, Detroit Delta Prep, Southfield Arts & Technology, Southfield Bradford and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian. Bloomfield Hills (Lahser and Andover) and Southfield Arts & Technology (Southfield and Southfield-Lathrup) were created by mergers of previous schools. Southfield A&T and Detroit Delta Prep are eligible for tournament play this season for the first time. Bradford and Tri-unity Christian both started programs during the latter half of the 2000s; Tri-unity qualified in 8-player after moving back to that format from 11-player this fall. Of 617 varsity football programs that played games this season (including five not eligible for the playoffs as either a first-year program or with an enrollment too high for 8-player), all but 18 have made the playoffs at least once going back to the first series in 1975.
Tie it up: We had a few ties in a few ways this season. In two situations, we had multiple teams with the same enrollment at a line between divisions. In those cases, the teams with the higher playoff point averages go to the larger divisions – so Ferndale went to Division 2 and East Lansing to Division 3 to settle one tie, and Lansing Sexton went to Division 4 and Dowagiac to Division 5 to settle the other. The additional tie came in 8-player football, with Portland St. Patrick and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian both having the same playoff point average, the same opponents’ winning percentage and drawn into the same District. A coin flip was used to determine St. Patrick as the top seed and home team both this week and next if it advances and plays the Defenders.
Local really is the rule: Division 3 provided us with a fine example to help show that we work to draw maps locally and beginning with the earliest rounds. There were at least three ways to separate the schools in Region 3 District 1: East Lansing, DeWitt, Fowlerville and Mason. DeWitt, as the westernmost of the group, could’ve been drawn southwest with R2D2’s Vicksburg, Battle Creek Harper Creek and Coldwater, replacing Chelsea. Doing so would’ve literally split the state’s regions down the middle along U.S. 127, which is a favorable picture. But protocol is to favor local matchups at the earliest rounds, and it just didn’t make sense to take DeWitt away from three schools mere minutes away when subbing it in for Chelsea would’ve created a wash in terms of travel for the other three teams in R2D2.
Sometimes, there’s no choice: But keeping a group of four local teams together often is impossible. Remember, 32 dots usually are spread out at least all over the Lower Peninsula. In Division 4, we had Grand Rapids Catholic Central, Wyoming Godwin Heights, Wyoming Kelloggsville and Grand Rapids South Christian stacked nicely along U.S. 131 – but had to send southernmost South Christian down with Benton Harbor, Three Rivers and Hudsonville Unity Christian because there was no other grouping for Allendale, which is about 20 miles west of Grand Rapids. Another incident of splitting up near-neighbors happened in Division 2; we had Lowell and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central next door to each other, but no other Grand Rapids area teams qualify. By only a few miles, Forest Hills Central is south of Lowell – so although the Rangers had shorter drives than Lowell to possible opponents both north and south, they went into a group with Portage Northern, Portage Central and Battle Creek Lakeview, and Lowell went north to join Greenville, Traverse City West and Traverse City Central.
Why coast to coast: It wasn’t lost on the committee that teams waking up looking at Lake Huron traveling to play on Lake Michigan isn’t the greatest scenario. But it was the best of the options, and we stayed consistent by setting up a possible two District trips across the Lower Peninsula. Tawas will journey to Maple City Glen Lake in Division 6 this week. With wins this week, Lincoln Alcona could end up heading to Frankfort for a Division 8 District Final. Those trips aren’t ideal, but they did allow us to keep northern Lower Peninsula teams together – and in reality, aren’t too different than when teams from the Lower Peninsula and Upper Peninsula match up the first week, as will be the case in Division 4 (Whitehall to Escanaba), Division 5 (Kalkaska to Menominee and Grayling to Kingsford), Division 6 (Charlevoix to Negaunee and Boyne City to Calumet) and Division 8 (Gaylord St. Mary to Newberry).
It’s just the math: The one unexpected oddity of this week’s matchups is Canton going back to Northville for the second week in a row, and after beating Northville 42-27 last week. But math does rule, and Northville does have a higher playoff point average despite that Week 9 loss; the Mustangs beat five teams that finished with winning records, while Canton beat three – which of course is no fault of the Chiefs. It's just the way – rarely – things work out.
At the end of the day …
In six years of being part of these discussions, this weekend’s at least seemed to be the most extensive. We had two and three versions of multiple divisions before deciding which we believed to be the best.
Only one division map – 8-player – was an absolute slam dunk. The rest received plenty of scrutiny from a committee that now includes veterans going back to the beginning but also has had some new eyes join in over the last couple of years. That variety of viewpoints certainly pays off.
And wow, did we fall into some incredible first-week matchups:
• Rockford and Hudsonville in a rematch of the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red-deciding game of Week 9 (a Hudsonville 14-7 win).
• Traverse City West vs. Traverse City Central for the first time in playoff history (Central won 10-8 in Week 3).
• Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook Kingswood at Detroit Country Day in a homecoming for longtime Yellowjackets coach Joe D’Angelo.
• Constantine at Schoolcraft in a matchup of longtime southwestern rivals (Schoolcraft won 20-10 in Week 8).
• Cedarville at Engadine in arguably the most intriguing of three all-U.P. 8-player matchups (Engadine won 52-42 in Week 7).
Truly, at the end of November, the best teams will have to beat the rest to finish as champions – regardless of maps, matchups, weather and anything else that won’t really factor into what eventually is settled on the field.
For many high school sports fans, it’s the favorite time of year. Join us now as we prepare for kickoff.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 1 bracket mapped out on the Lower Peninsula. (Middle) The Division 3 map keeps four mid-Michigan teams together.
A Game for Every Fan: Semifinals
November 16, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Starting with this Saturday's Semifinals, every team left in the MHSAA football playoffs hits the road.
Some face longer trips than others. But all 32 hope their final journeys last long enough to land them at Ford Field for an extended Thanksgiving celebration.
Every Semifinal is Saturday, and all but the two games at Northern Michigan University kick off at 1 p.m. Check out Score Center for all game times and scores as they come in. Four games again will be streamed live on FoxSportsDetroit.com's Prep Zone: Muskegon vs. Caledonia, Battle Creek Harper Creek vs. Orchard Lake St. Mary, Portland vs. Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard and Flint Beecher vs. Detroit Loyola.
Below are expanded previews of all 16 Semifinal matchups, complete with some of the players to watch and what they and their teammates have accomplished so far.
Division 1
Rockford (10-2) vs. Detroit Catholic Central (8-4) at Battle Creek Central
This is a rematch of arguably last season’s most competitive Semifinal, a 23-20 overtime DCC win. Rockford eliminated favorite Clarkston last week to reach the Semifinals for the 11th time since coach Ralph Munger took over the team in 1992. The Rams again do well what they've always done – run hard with a variety of backs and keep opponents off the scoreboard. Rockford has given up more than 20 points only twice, and no opponent has scored more than 28. Senior Sam Reinke has run for 846 of the team’s 2,604 rush yards behind a line averaging nearly 240 pounds per blocker. They’ll have to stop University of Michigan commit Wyatt Shallman at defensive tackle. Shamrocks senior running backs Anthony Darkangelo and David Houle both played big parts in last season’s Semifinal win and are relied on again. Darkangelo has run for 1,036 yards and 14 scores this fall, with Houle adding 12 touchdowns.
Detroit Cass Tech (10-2) vs. Lake Orion (11-1) at Troy Athens
Reigning Division 1 champion Cass Tech rebounded nicely after losing unexpectedly to Detroit Martin Luther King during the Public School League playoffs. The Technicians are again loaded with talent – defensive back Jourdan Lewis has committed to the University of Michigan and lineman Dennis Finley will sign with Michigan State – and sophomore quarterback Jayru Campbell tied an MHSAA Finals record with five touchdown passes in last season’s win over DCC. Lake Orion won the Division 1 title in 2011 and is playing for its third Ford Field appearance in five seasons. The Dragons only loss this fall was by seven to Clarkston, and they've beaten some heavy hitters the last two weeks in Utica Eisenhower and Macomb Dakota. The defense is giving up only 202 yards per game, while the offense relies on three senior playmakers. Quarterback Derek DeLaura has thrown for 1,058 yards and 12 touchdowns, and 6-foot-6 receiver Chaz Miller is averaging 20.3 yards per catch with eight TDs. Running back Jacob Miller has rushed for 1,277 yards and 19 scores.
Division 2
Muskegon (11-1) vs. Caledonia (9-3) at Hudsonville
Save for a one-point loss to Zeeland East in Week 9, Muskegon has been considered by many all season as the team to beat in this division. Senior running back John King and senior quarterback Jalen Smith have gained plenty of yards, King running for 1,565 and 20 touchdowns and Smith for 854 and 12 scores. Wins over Orchard Lake St. Mary, Rockford, Lowell (twice) and Midland have been most impressive, and teams rushing the ball have had a tremendously tough time gaining only 70 yards per game. This game could be strength on strength, as Caledonia’s rush game chews up yards in bunches – three Fighting Scots have gained at least 830, and four are averaging at least 4.5 yards per carry. Senior quarterback Ryan Zoet doesn't just direct traffic – he’s the team’s leading rusher with 917 yards plus 20 touchdowns on the ground, and he’s thrown for 1,248 yards and five more scores.
Birmingham Brother Rice (10-2) vs. Wyandotte Roosevelt (11-1) at Gibraltar Carlson
Brother Rice won last season’s Division 2 championship on the shoulders of running back Devin Church, and the back carrying the load this time is junior Brian Walker. He’s rushed for 1,352 yards and 20 touchdowns for an offense that’s gained 4,214 yards in total offense. As usual, that’s come against incredible competition, with Brother Rice’s best win likely a 20-14 victory over Detroit Catholic Central. Senior linebacker Jon Reschke, who has committed to Michigan State, leads a defense giving up only 234 yards per game. Aside from a midseason loss to Brownstown Woodhaven that Roosevelt avenged in the District opener, its slate of results includes plenty of single-digit scores for opponents. The Bears held teams to eight or fewer points eight times, and in its 11 wins gave up only seven points per game. Senior quarterback Kevin Matejko has been solid on the other side of the ball with 1,589 yards and 18 touchdowns passing.
Division 3
DeWitt (10-2) vs. Grand Rapids Christian (11-1) at East Kentwood
Grand Rapids Christian might be the scariest offensive team in Michigan, with 144 of its 498 points coming over the last three weeks against teams that were a combined 26-4. Junior receiver Drake Harris already has committed to Michigan State, and he’s averaging 20.4 yards per catch – which is an even bigger deal when he has 76 catches and 20 that have gone for touchdowns. Getting it there is senior Alex VanDeVusse, who has thrown for 3,226 yards and 35 touchdowns and run for 652 yards and 12 scores. DeWitt is known for all-state quarterbacks, and has a pair of standouts in junior Jacob Heath and sophomore Jacob Johnson. Heath filled in for six games while Johnson was injured during the regular season, throwing for 1,428 yards and 15 scores. Johnson returned in Week 9, and in just more than five games has thrown for 998 yards and 13 touchdowns and run for six more TDs. Senior Ryan Anderson has benefited from both, catching 68 passes for 1,092 yards and 14 scores.
Battle Creek Harper Creek (10-2) vs. Orchard Lake St. Mary's (10-2) at Chelsea
After just missing making Ford Field last season with a four-point Semifinal loss to eventual champion St. Mary's, Harper Creek gets another chance with a rematch. The Beavers aren't scoring as many points as last season, although still 32.5 a game, but they’re giving up only 13 – and getting nearly three turnovers a game, with 17 interceptions and 16 fumble recoveries. Senior Kasey Carson carries much of the load on offense, with 1,799 yards and 25 touchdowns on the ground. St. Mary's won last season running over opponents too, and two of its top three rushers from last season’s Final have been eating up yards again – senior Grant Niemiec has run for 1,587 yards and 23 touchdowns and senior Parker McInnis has gained 1,236 yards with 18 scores. St. Mary's owns wins this season over Division 1 semifinalists Detroit Cass Tech and Detroit Catholic Central.
Division 4
Comstock Park (11-1) vs. Grand Rapids South Christian (9-3) at Grand Rapids Houseman Field
Comstock Park won its District in coach Mark Chapman’s first season of 2010, added a Regional title last fall, and this season won both plus its league championship – while knocking out favorite Grand Rapids Catholic Central two weeks ago. Senior quarterback Jake Brown is tough to stop, with 1,224 yards and 26 touchdowns rushing and 1,598 yards and 11 TDs passing. South Christian eliminated previously-undefeated Paw Paw and Dowagiac before beating Three Rivers last week, and also is keyed by a talented run/pass quarterback. Sophomore Jon Wassink has rushed for a team-high 713 yards and nine touchdowns and thrown for 2,564 yards and 23 scores.
Saginaw Swan Valley (10-2) vs. Detroit Country Day (10-2) at Ortonville Brandon
After dropping two games midway through the regular season, Swan Valley has dominated, scoring at least 35 points in all of the next six while giving up more than 14 only once. This is its third Semifinal berth in seven seasons, and it’s been made possible in part by the running of sophomore Alex Grace, who has rushed for 2,091 yards and 27 touchdowns. Country Day is looking to get back to the Finals after back-to-back runner-up finishes in 2007 and 2008. Junior quarterback Tyler Wiegers has been tremendously efficient and careful with the ball, completing 62 percent of his passes for 1,822 yards and 18 touchdowns with just one interception. Junior running back Richard Wilson has run for 1,074 yards and 24 scores.
Division 5
Menominee (11-1) vs. Grand Rapids West Catholic (9-3) at Northern Michigan’s Superior Dome
Former player and assistant coach Joe Noha has done retired longtime coach Ken Hofer proud in bringing Menominee back to the Semifinals in his first season after taking over the program. The Maroons are a one-point loss to Kingsford from being undefeated and are getting contributions from a variety of players led by leading rushers James Brown and Devon Harris, both juniors. West Catholic rebounded from a 1-3 start to reach its third straight Semifinal and beat playoff opponents that were a combined 28-2. The Falcons have a 1,000-yard running back in junior Andy Corey (1,435 yards, 11 TDs), a 2,000-yard quarterback in sophomore Travis Russell (2,143 yards and 20 TDs) and a 1,000-yard receiver in senior David Kuzma (1,084 yards and 11 TDs).
Portland (11-1) vs. Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard (11-1) at Howell
Portland is back in the Semifinals for the first time since the first MHSAA playoffs in 1975, and after knocking off reigning champion Flint Powers last week looks like the team to stop. That lone loss came to reigning runner-up Lansing Catholic, by nine, and Portland also beat Division 3 Semifinalist DeWitt big while going 6-1 against playoff teams so far. Portland is known for tough runners, and junior Jacob Kimmell is the latest; he’s gained a team-high 1,278 yards and scored 17 touchdowns on the ground. But the Raiders can’t look past Gabriel Richard. The Fighting Irish handed Pontiac Notre Dame its first loss of the season in Week 9 and since has cruised by beating its three postseason opponents by a combined 89-6. Senior Ashton Hundley runs behind a sizable offensive line and has gained 1,178 yards and 16 touchdowns on the ground.
Division 6
Shelby (10-2) vs. Ithaca (12-0) at Ferris State
Coming out of the West Michigan Conference, Shelby has seen as strong of competition as any team playing in the small-school divisions. And that makes the success of senior running back Nathan Lentz all the more impressive – he’s run for 1,155 yards and 17 touchdowns, caught 20 passes and scored on four of those, and also has a touchdown apiece off kickoff, punt and interception returns. But the Tigers' defense must be up to the challenge of stopping two-time reigning champion Ithaca, which has won 40 straight games and scores nearly 51 points per. Junior quarterback Travis Smith is one of the best in the state and has thrown for 2,264 yards and 36 touchdowns while running for another 732 yards and 13 scores.
Constantine (10-2) vs. Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (10-2) at Battle Creek Harper Creek
The route taken by reigning runner-up Constantine is comparable to that of any team still alive. It has beaten three playoff opponents that were a combined 29-1 coming into those games. Constantine doesn't trick anyone with its strategy – the team has run for 5,096 yards and thrown for 405, with senior Ben Mallo gaining 1,627 yards and 16 touchdowns on the ground and senior Payton White adding 1,324 yards and 27 scores. St. Mary is looking to return to the Finals for its third time in eight seasons and has won at least 10 games for the fourth time in five years. Its imbalance on offensive is similar – 4,133 rushing yards and 174 through the air. But there are a few more people carrying the load with five players running for between 580 and 725 yards, in part because teammates have picked up the slack after the season-ending injury to leading rusher and scorer Josh Czarniowski.
Division 7
Ishpeming (11-1) vs. Pewamo-Westphalia (9-3) at Northern Michigan’s Superior Dome
Ishpeming, looking to get back to Ford Field for the second time in three seasons, has given up more than 14 points only once – in its lone loss, to Negaunee – and has yielded only 24 total in three playoff games. Senior Eric Kostreva is a starting linebacker and the team’s leading rusher with 1,153 yards and 17 touchdowns on the ground. After making the Finals last fall for the first time, P-W recovered from two late losses to get in position to return. The names to know are different this fall, but they’re equally talented. Junior quarterback Kyle Nurenberg has run for 563 yards and 15 scores and thrown for 762 and 10 TDs, and senior tailback Jered Myszak has rushed for 1,179 yards and nine touchdowns.
Detroit Loyola (12-0) vs. Flint Beecher (8-4) at Fenton
Loyola is back in the Semifinals for the second straight season and follows the lead of one of the top scorers in MHSAA football history. Senior Keymonn’e Gabriel has run for 2,195 yards and 32 touchdowns, and with his 48 two-point conversions has 288 points total – tied for third-most in MHSAA history for a single season. Beecher got into the playoffs as a 5-4 additional qualifier, but limited Hamady and Saginaw Nouvel to a combined 22 points over the last two weeks. The winner will celebrate a historic first. Neither has played in an MHSAA championship game.
Division 8
St. Ignace (12-0) vs. Beal City (12-0) at Traverse City’s Thirlby Field
The Saints are playing to reach the Finals for the first time since 1985 and got past a major obstacle in formerly undefeated Felch North Dickinson last week. St. Ignace presents opponents a number of weapons to stop – three backs have run for at least 630 yards and 10 touchdowns, and junior quarterback Travis Snyder has thrown for 1,443 yards and 25 scores. Beal City is a two-time MHSAA champion and is scoring 40 points per game while giving up only 11. Senior Sam Schafer plays a large part in both as a starting linebacker and quarterback who has thrown for 1,546 yards and 19 TDs.
Muskegon Catholic Central (9-3) vs. Harbor Beach (11-1) at Alma College
Harbor Beach has beaten two excellent teams the last two weeks in New Lothrop and Waterford Our Lady, and is led by dangerous junior quarterback Eli Kraft (740 yards and 14 TDs rushing, 1,129 yards and 11 TDs passing). But the Pirates will have their toughest challenge yet in MCC, which defeated reigning champion Mendon last week and reigning runner-up Fowler the week before. The Crusaders have run for 3,447 yards, led by junior Alex Lewandoski’s 1,121.
PHOTO: Portland players celebrate their Regional title after beating reigning MHSAA Division 5 champion Flint Powers Catholic on Friday. (Click to see more at HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)