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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '16

October 24, 2016

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

There was a wheel and something that looked like a magic wand. Another started out looking like the head of a caterpillar.

A number of Michigan football teams realized their sky-high dreams with Sunday’s playoff selection announcement on Fox Sports Detroit. 

But earlier that day, as is the case at the end of each fall, shaping this season’s tournament at times looked a little like finding pictures in the clouds.

Beginning last night and into this morning, MHSAA staff have been busily gathering game days and times for this weekend’s opening round. We’re assigning officials for those contests. Schools are preparing for what likely will be one of their biggest crowds of the season. And, of course, teams are preparing for what surely will be one of their most memorable games.

But before all of that could begin, we met Sunday morning with nine maps of Michigan and 272 dots that needed to be organized to set another playoffs in motion.

As we’ve done the past five seasons, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2016 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2016.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were 218 automatic qualifiers by win total – only two more than the record low set a year ago – with the final 38 at-large qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. For the second consecutive season there were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams from Class A and 11 each from Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2016

First things, first: Congratulations to five first-time playoff qualifiers – Bloomfield Hills, Detroit Delta Prep, Southfield Arts & Technology, Southfield Bradford and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian. Bloomfield Hills (Lahser and Andover) and Southfield Arts & Technology (Southfield and Southfield-Lathrup) were created by mergers of previous schools. Southfield A&T and Detroit Delta Prep are eligible for tournament play this season for the first time. Bradford and Tri-unity Christian both started programs during the latter half of the 2000s; Tri-unity qualified in 8-player after moving back to that format from 11-player this fall. Of 617 varsity football programs that played games this season (including five not eligible for the playoffs as either a first-year program or with an enrollment too high for 8-player), all but 18 have made the playoffs at least once going back to the first series in 1975.

Tie it up: We had a few ties in a few ways this season. In two situations, we had multiple teams with the same enrollment at a line between divisions. In those cases, the teams with the higher playoff point averages go to the larger divisions – so Ferndale went to Division 2 and East Lansing to Division 3 to settle one tie, and Lansing Sexton went to Division 4 and Dowagiac to Division 5 to settle the other. The additional tie came in 8-player football, with Portland St. Patrick and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian both having the same playoff point average, the same opponents’ winning percentage and drawn into the same District. A coin flip was used to determine St. Patrick as the top seed and home team both this week and next if it advances and plays the Defenders.

Local really is the rule: Division 3 provided us with a fine example to help show that we work to draw maps locally and beginning with the earliest rounds. There were at least three ways to separate the schools in Region 3 District 1: East Lansing, DeWitt, Fowlerville and Mason. DeWitt, as the westernmost of the group, could’ve been drawn southwest with R2D2’s Vicksburg, Battle Creek Harper Creek and Coldwater, replacing Chelsea. Doing so would’ve literally split the state’s regions down the middle along U.S. 127, which is a favorable picture. But protocol is to favor local matchups at the earliest rounds, and it just didn’t make sense to take DeWitt away from three schools mere minutes away when subbing it in for Chelsea would’ve created a wash in terms of travel for the other three teams in R2D2.

Sometimes, there’s no choice: But keeping a group of four local teams together often is impossible. Remember, 32 dots usually are spread out at least all over the Lower Peninsula. In Division 4, we had Grand Rapids Catholic Central, Wyoming Godwin Heights, Wyoming Kelloggsville and Grand Rapids South Christian stacked nicely along U.S. 131 – but had to send southernmost South Christian down with Benton Harbor, Three Rivers and Hudsonville Unity Christian because there was no other grouping for Allendale, which is about 20 miles west of Grand Rapids. Another incident of splitting up near-neighbors happened in Division 2; we had Lowell and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central next door to each other, but no other Grand Rapids area teams qualify. By only a few miles, Forest Hills Central is south of Lowell – so although the Rangers had shorter drives than Lowell to possible opponents both north and south, they went into a group with Portage Northern, Portage Central and Battle Creek Lakeview, and Lowell went north to join Greenville, Traverse City West and Traverse City Central.

Why coast to coast: It wasn’t lost on the committee that teams waking up looking at Lake Huron traveling to play on Lake Michigan isn’t the greatest scenario. But it was the best of the options, and we stayed consistent by setting up a possible two District trips across the Lower Peninsula. Tawas will journey to Maple City Glen Lake in Division 6 this week. With wins this week, Lincoln Alcona could end up heading to Frankfort for a Division 8 District Final. Those trips aren’t ideal, but they did allow us to keep northern Lower Peninsula teams together – and in reality, aren’t too different than when teams from the Lower Peninsula and Upper Peninsula match up the first week, as will be the case in Division 4 (Whitehall to Escanaba), Division 5 (Kalkaska to Menominee and Grayling to Kingsford), Division 6 (Charlevoix to Negaunee and Boyne City to Calumet) and Division 8 (Gaylord St. Mary to Newberry).

It’s just the math: The one unexpected oddity of this week’s matchups is Canton going back to Northville for the second week in a row, and after beating Northville 42-27 last week. But math does rule, and Northville does have a higher playoff point average despite that Week 9 loss; the Mustangs beat five teams that finished with winning records, while Canton beat three – which of course is no fault of the Chiefs. It's just the way – rarely – things work out.

At the end of the day …

In six years of being part of these discussions, this weekend’s at least seemed to be the most extensive. We had two and three versions of multiple divisions before deciding which we believed to be the best.

Only one division map – 8-player – was an absolute slam dunk. The rest received plenty of scrutiny from a committee that now includes veterans going back to the beginning but also has had some new eyes join in over the last couple of years. That variety of viewpoints certainly pays off.

And wow, did we fall into some incredible first-week matchups:

• Rockford and Hudsonville in a rematch of the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red-deciding game of Week 9 (a Hudsonville 14-7 win).

• Traverse City West vs. Traverse City Central for the first time in playoff history (Central won 10-8 in Week 3).

• Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook Kingswood at Detroit Country Day in a homecoming for longtime Yellowjackets coach Joe D’Angelo.

• Constantine at Schoolcraft in a matchup of longtime southwestern rivals (Schoolcraft won 20-10 in Week 8).

• Cedarville at Engadine in arguably the most intriguing of three all-U.P. 8-player matchups (Engadine won 52-42 in Week 7).

Truly, at the end of November, the best teams will have to beat the rest to finish as champions – regardless of maps, matchups, weather and anything else that won’t really factor into what eventually is settled on the field.

For many high school sports fans, it’s the favorite time of year. Join us now as we prepare for kickoff.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 1 bracket mapped out on the Lower Peninsula. (Middle) The Division 3 map keeps four mid-Michigan teams together.

Muskegon/Mona Shores football

1st & Goal: 2021 Week 7 in Review

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

October 11, 2021

One result we're watching closely with the switch to a new playoff selection format for 11-player football – with no six-wins-and-in – is that every game feels like it matters more.

MI Student Aid

It could be a lot, or just a little as teams must push all the way through Week 9 to solidify their spots in the playoff field.

We’ll start understanding that much more over these final few weeks as teams hope their strength of schedule helps boost their playoff hopes. And there were plenty of results from Week 7 that likely will impact how 256 11-player and 32 8-player teams reach the playoffs Oct. 24.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Port Huron 14, Port Huron Northern 7 The Big Reds (6-1) finished a repeat run in the Macomb Area Conference Blue with this winner-take-all victory over the rival Huskies (6-1), extending their streak against Northern to three straight victories. Port Huron took a 14-0 lead into the break and finished with its fewest points given up in a game this season. Click for more from the Port Huron Times-Herald.

Watch list Lake Fenton 14, Goodrich 12 The Blue Devils (6-1) ended a three-game losing streak to the Martians (5-2) to create a shared Flint Metro League Stars championship between the two. Goodrich scored late, but Lake Fenton stopped the two-point conversion try to hold onto the lead.

Remember this one Gladwin 48, Clare 42 The Flying G’s (7-0) have earned a share of their first Jack Pine Conference championship since 2002, sending Clare (4-3) into second place, and can clinch their first outright JPC title this week against Beaverton.

More shoutouts Reese 27, Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker 18 By way of this win, Bad Axe earned a share of the Greater Thumb Conference West title. Laker (5-2) still can make the league end with a three-way championship, adding Reese (6-1) back into the mix, if it defeats the Hatchets this week. Swartz Creek 35, Flushing 28 This combined with Fenton’s 36-34 win over Linden created a shared Metro League Stripes championship between the Dragons and Tigers, both 4-3 overall.

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Romeo 7, Sterling Heights Stevenson 0 A stingy Romeo defense put together its best performance of the season when it counted most, earning its second shutout of the fall to create a shared MAC Red championship with the Titans (5-2). Joey Kostrubiec’s fourth-quarter scoring run provided the Bulldogs (6-1) with their winning margin. Click for more from the Detroit Free Press.

Watch list Dearborn Fordson 38, Livonia Churchill 33 Alex Osman’s five first-half touchdown passes helped Fordson reset the Kensington Lakes Activities Association East title race. Fordson, Churchill and Belleville all are 5-1 in league play and 6-1 overall heading into this week’s division finales.

Remember this one Madison Heights Bishop Foley 51, Ann Arbor Father Gabriel Richard 20 The Ventures (6-1) scored their season high in clinching the Detroit Catholic League Intersectional #1 championship after finishing second in the league a year ago.

More shoutouts Harper Woods Chandler Park 18, Warren Michigan Collegiate 16 The Eagles (5-2) came back from a two-point halftime deficit to clinch the Charter School Conference East title against second-place Michigan Collegiate (4-3). Detroit Pershing 22, Detroit Osborn 0 The Doughboys (5-2) posted their third shutout in Detroit Public School League Division 2 play to earn a spot in this week’s Gold championship game, while sending Osborn to 4-3.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER Breckenridge 12, Carson City-Crystal 0 The winner-take-all Mid-State Activities Conference championship matchup went to the Huskies, as they posted their second-straight shutout to lock up their sixth-straight league title. Breckenridge (5-2) is 29-0 in league play since joining the MSAC in 2016, and Carson City-Crystal (6-1) has finished league runner-up three of the last four seasons. Click for more from the Mount Pleasant Morning Sun.

Watch list New Lothrop 33, Durand 20 The Mid-Michigan Activities Conference title race has worked itself down to three teams as the Hornets handed Durand (5-2) its second league loss. The Hornets (5-2) and Ovid-Elsie are tied for first at 5-1 in league play with a game to go, and Montrose figures in too at 4-1 since one of its league games was canceled.

Remember this one Olivet 37, Lake Odessa Lakewood 0 The Eagles (5-2) ran their Great Lakes Activities Conference winning streak to 23 games and championship streak to five seasons since last losing a league game and title, to Lakewood (4-3), in 2016.

More shoutouts Holt 26, East Lansing 21 The Rams (5-2) got some serious playoff-point bounce from defeating East Lansing (4-3) as they look to stick in the Division 1 field. Mason 24, Fowlerville 6 The Bulldogs (5-2) finished with a share of a third-straight Capital Area Activities Conference Red title, with Haslett and Williamston also earning pieces of the championship with wins this weekend.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Boyne City 50, Mancelona 18 The Ramblers clinched a share of the Northern Michigan Football Conference Leaders championship in what was a showdown for the top spot in the league. Boyne City (6-1) can claim the title outright this week against Elk Rapids, while Mancelona (5-1) still can guarantee its winningest season since 2014 with a victory this week against Charlevoix or Week 9 against Maple City Glen Lake. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.

Watch list Traverse City Central 56, Alpena 7 After opening this season with a loss to DeWitt at Michigan Stadium, Central (6-1) has won all of its games by at least 24 points and finished a third-straight perfect run through the Big North Conference.

Remember this one Cadillac 35, Petoskey 0 The Vikings (5-2) are up to a comfortable 10th in Division 4, while Petoskey (3-4) is sitting just outside the Division 3 playoff field at No. 34 after this defeat.

More shoutouts Traverse City St. Francis 42, Sault Ste. Marie 28 The Gladiators (7-0) are up to No. 3 in Division 7 and remain set up for a winner-take-all NMFC Legends meeting with Kingsley in two weeks. Charlevoix 32, Kalkaska 30 The Rayders (6-1) narrowly eluded an upset, but Kalkaska (1-6) has made strides – the Blazers have faced the top three teams in the Leaders over the last three weeks and lost to two of them by only a score.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Saline 35, Temperance Bedford 21 The Hornets secured a share of an eighth-straight Southeastern Conference Red championship with an opportunity to finish the outright title run this week against Dexter. Saline quarterback CJ Carr was a standout with three passing touchdowns and one more rushing. Bedford (5-2) still has a strong chance to reach seven wins for the first time since 2016 with its final two opponents a combined 1-13. Click for more from the Toledo Blade.

Watch list Sand Creek 48, Erie Mason 6 The Aggies (5-2) will need some help from Mason in Week 9 to catch leader Ottawa Lake Whiteford for a share of the Tri-County Conference title, but Sand Creek moved into a tie for second place by avenging last season’s 56-38 loss to the Eagles (4-3).

Remember this one Michigan Center 12, Napoleon 7 The Cardinals (6-1) turned this week’s Napoleon/Addison game from a winner-take-all in the Cascades Conference title race to an opportunity to share the championship three ways if the Pirates can rebound with a win.

More shoutouts Addison 59, Grass Lake 0 Addison (7-0) sealed a share of the Cascades title, its third straight. Dexter 56, Monroe 27 This was an important win for Dexter (5-2), which sits No. 16 in Division 2 with two losses by a combined eight points and two undefeated opponents finishing off the regular-season schedule.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Stevensville Lakeshore 35, St. Joseph 28 The Lancers (6-1) scored 21 fourth-quarter points and the game winners during the final minute to hold on to a share of first place in the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference and send St. Joseph (5-2) into third with its second straight one-score defeat. The fourth quarter also featured back-to-back kickoff return touchdowns that made the score 28-28 before Ryan Korfmacher found Trevor Griffiths on a scoring pass as the final 30 seconds ticked off the clock. Click for more from the St. Joseph Herald-Palladium.

Watch list White Pigeon 32, Cassopolis 8 While this game was only for second place in the Southwest 10 Conference, White Pigeon (6-1) held on to a top-10 spot in Division 8.

Remember this one Mattawan 19, Battle Creek Lakeview 14 The Wildcats’ only other win this fall came by forfeit, but they have a chance to finish strong after almost taking Lakeview (4-3) completely out of the SMAC title race.

More shoutouts Kalamazoo United 37, Watervliet 0 United (5-2) made a move into the top half of the Division 5 playoff list and remains one of two teams undefeated in Southwestern Athletic Conference Lakeshore play after shutting down a Watervliet offense that averaged 32 points per game during its 4-2 start. Vicksburg 35, Plainwell 6 The Bulldogs (6-1) moved up to No. 5 in Division 4 after winning this matchup for second place in the Wolverine Conference.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Menominee 34, Marquette 13 The Maroons broke a three-game losing streak against Marquette and in doing so earned a share of the Great Northern Conference championship, their first since 2016. Menominee (5-2) went up 20-6 by halftime and locked down an offense that was averaging 44 points per game. Marquette (5-2) still will receive a share of the league title if Kingsford defeats Menominee in Week 9.

Watch list Negaunee 31, Gladstone 30 The Miners (6-1) have been on a run since losing to Iron Mountain by two in the season opener, but just got past Gladstone (3-4) to keep the streak intact.

Remember this one Iron Mountain 28, Hancock 18 The Mountaineers (4-3) earned a boost up to No. 8 in Division 8 while putting Hancock (3-4) in a tough position trying to reach the Division 5 playoff field.

More shoutouts Ishpeming Westwood 38, L'Anse 6 The Patriots (6-1) secured a spot in a possible Week 9 winner-takes-at-least-a-share title game against Negaunee in the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper. Calumet 31, Houghton 7 The above-mentioned Week 9 Copper game isn’t necessarily winner-take-all as Calumet (5-2) now finishes with the bottom two teams in the league and is guaranteed a share as well with wins in both.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Muskegon 49, Muskegon Mona Shores 28 The Big Reds (6-1) are back on top in this rivalry and back on top in the Ottawa-Kent Conference Green after riding a big defensive touchdown just before halftime into a dominant second half. Mona Shores (5-2) led 21-14 during the first half before the big-time Big Reds finish. Click for more from CatchMark SportsNet.

Watch list Rockford 17, Caledonia 14 The Rams (7-0) took a major step toward an O-K Red title and perfect regular season by handing Caledonia (6-1) its lone loss. Rockford finishes with opponents that are a combined 3-11.

Remember this one Hudsonville Unity Christian 40, Grand Rapids West Catholic 14 Over two weeks we’ve watched the O-K Blue sort out from four first-place teams to Unity (7-0) on top alone with two league games to play and this the Crusaders’ closest so far.

More shoutouts Grand Rapids Christian 24, Byron Center 10 The O-K White race just got reshuffled a bit with the Eagles (4-3) back in the mix and Byron Center (6-1) now taking on leader Forest Hills Central this week just to keep a shared title possible. Spring Lake 27, Coopersville 20 The Lakers (6-1) and West Catholic (6-1) will be rooting this week for Coopersville (5-2), which moves on to take on Unity this week and can turn the Blue back into a three-team league race.

8-Player

HEADLINER Martin 28, Mendon 20 The Clippers (7-0) won a first-place showdown in the Southwest Michigan 8-Man Football League Tier 1 to clinch a share of the conference championship. Martin significantly slowed a Mendon offense averaging 48 points per game and can clinch the title outright next week against Marcellus, while Mendon (5-2) will face Gobles and hope for some help from the Wildcats. Click for more from the Sturgis Journal.

Watch list Indian River Inland Lakes 49, Pellston 6 The Bulldogs (7-0) still need one more win to clinch a share of the Ski Valley Conference title and still have second-place Gaylord St. Mary coming up in Week 9. But sending Pellston (6-1) also into second place in impressive fashion should turn a lot of eyes toward the No. 6 team in Division 1.

Remember this one Tekonsha 36, Waldron 14 Tekonsha (5-2) finished second in its league the last two seasons but clinched a share of the Southern Central Athletic Association B title with this win while sending Waldron (5-2) into a tie for second place.

More shoutouts Suttons Bay 45, Marion 0 By handing Marion (6-1) its lone loss and in a big way, the Norsemen (7-0) made a statement with the playoffs coming up. Pickford 34, Newberry 28 (OT) The Panthers (6-1) maintained control of their title hopes, while sending Newberry (5-2) nearly out of contention in the Great Lakes Eight Conference East.

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PHOTO Muskegon pulled away from rival Mona Shores during the second half of Friday's 49-28 win. (Photo courtesy of Local Sports Journal.)