Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '16

October 24, 2016

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

There was a wheel and something that looked like a magic wand. Another started out looking like the head of a caterpillar.

A number of Michigan football teams realized their sky-high dreams with Sunday’s playoff selection announcement on Fox Sports Detroit. 

But earlier that day, as is the case at the end of each fall, shaping this season’s tournament at times looked a little like finding pictures in the clouds.

Beginning last night and into this morning, MHSAA staff have been busily gathering game days and times for this weekend’s opening round. We’re assigning officials for those contests. Schools are preparing for what likely will be one of their biggest crowds of the season. And, of course, teams are preparing for what surely will be one of their most memorable games.

But before all of that could begin, we met Sunday morning with nine maps of Michigan and 272 dots that needed to be organized to set another playoffs in motion.

As we’ve done the past five seasons, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2016 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2016.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were 218 automatic qualifiers by win total – only two more than the record low set a year ago – with the final 38 at-large qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. For the second consecutive season there were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams from Class A and 11 each from Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2016

First things, first: Congratulations to five first-time playoff qualifiers  Bloomfield Hills, Detroit Delta Prep, Southfield Arts & Technology, Southfield Bradford and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian. Bloomfield Hills (Lahser and Andover) and Southfield Arts & Technology (Southfield and Southfield-Lathrup) were created by mergers of previous schools. Southfield A&T and Detroit Delta Prep are eligible for tournament play this season for the first time. Bradford and Tri-unity Christian both started programs during the latter half of the 2000s; Tri-unity qualified in 8-player after moving back to that format from 11-player this fall. Of 617 varsity football programs that played games this season (including five not eligible for the playoffs as either a first-year program or with an enrollment too high for 8-player), all but 18 have made the playoffs at least once going back to the first series in 1975.

Tie it up: We had a few ties in a few ways this season. In two situations, we had multiple teams with the same enrollment at a line between divisions. In those cases, the teams with the higher playoff point averages go to the larger divisions – so Ferndale went to Division 2 and East Lansing to Division 3 to settle one tie, and Lansing Sexton went to Division 4 and Dowagiac to Division 5 to settle the other. The additional tie came in 8-player football, with Portland St. Patrick and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian both having the same playoff point average, the same opponents’ winning percentage and drawn into the same District. A coin flip was used to determine St. Patrick as the top seed and home team both this week and next if it advances and plays the Defenders.

Local really is the rule: Division 3 provided us with a fine example to help show that we work to draw maps locally and beginning with the earliest rounds. There were at least three ways to separate the schools in Region 3 District 1: East Lansing, DeWitt, Fowlerville and Mason. DeWitt, as the westernmost of the group, could’ve been drawn southwest with R2D2’s Vicksburg, Battle Creek Harper Creek and Coldwater, replacing Chelsea. Doing so would’ve literally split the state’s regions down the middle along U.S. 127, which is a favorable picture. But protocol is to favor local matchups at the earliest rounds, and it just didn’t make sense to take DeWitt away from three schools mere minutes away when subbing it in for Chelsea would’ve created a wash in terms of travel for the other three teams in R2D2.

Sometimes, there’s no choice: But keeping a group of four local teams together often is impossible. Remember, 32 dots usually are spread out at least all over the Lower Peninsula. In Division 4, we had Grand Rapids Catholic Central, Wyoming Godwin Heights, Wyoming Kelloggsville and Grand Rapids South Christian stacked nicely along U.S. 131 – but had to send southernmost South Christian down with Benton Harbor, Three Rivers and Hudsonville Unity Christian because there was no other grouping for Allendale, which is about 20 miles west of Grand Rapids. Another incident of splitting up near-neighbors happened in Division 2; we had Lowell and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central next door to each other, but no other Grand Rapids area teams qualify. By only a few miles, Forest Hills Central is south of Lowell – so although the Rangers had shorter drives than Lowell to possible opponents both north and south, they went into a group with Portage Northern, Portage Central and Battle Creek Lakeview, and Lowell went north to join Greenville, Traverse City West and Traverse City Central.

Why coast to coast: It wasn’t lost on the committee that teams waking up looking at Lake Huron traveling to play on Lake Michigan isn’t the greatest scenario. But it was the best of the options, and we stayed consistent by setting up a possible two District trips across the Lower Peninsula. Tawas will journey to Maple City Glen Lake in Division 6 this week. With wins this week, Lincoln Alcona could end up heading to Frankfort for a Division 8 District Final. Those trips aren’t ideal, but they did allow us to keep northern Lower Peninsula teams together – and in reality, aren’t too different than when teams from the Lower Peninsula and Upper Peninsula match up the first week, as will be the case in Division 4 (Whitehall to Escanaba), Division 5 (Kalkaska to Menominee and Grayling to Kingsford), Division 6 (Charlevoix to Negaunee and Boyne City to Calumet) and Division 8 (Gaylord St. Mary to Newberry).

It’s just the math: The one unexpected oddity of this week’s matchups is Canton going back to Northville for the second week in a row, and after beating Northville 42-27 last week. But math does rule, and Northville does have a higher playoff point average despite that Week 9 loss; the Mustangs beat five teams that finished with winning records, while Canton beat three – which of course is no fault of the Chiefs. It's just the way – rarely – things work out.

At the end of the day …

In six years of being part of these discussions, this weekend’s at least seemed to be the most extensive. We had two and three versions of multiple divisions before deciding which we believed to be the best.

Only one division map – 8-player – was an absolute slam dunk. The rest received plenty of scrutiny from a committee that now includes veterans going back to the beginning but also has had some new eyes join in over the last couple of years. That variety of viewpoints certainly pays off.

And wow, did we fall into some incredible first-week matchups:

• Rockford and Hudsonville in a rematch of the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red-deciding game of Week 9 (a Hudsonville 14-7 win).

• Traverse City West vs. Traverse City Central for the first time in playoff history (Central won 10-8 in Week 3).

• Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook Kingswood at Detroit Country Day in a homecoming for longtime Yellowjackets coach Joe D’Angelo.

• Constantine at Schoolcraft in a matchup of longtime southwestern rivals (Schoolcraft won 20-10 in Week 8).

• Cedarville at Engadine in arguably the most intriguing of three all-U.P. 8-player matchups (Engadine won 52-42 in Week 7).

Truly, at the end of November, the best teams will have to beat the rest to finish as champions – regardless of maps, matchups, weather and anything else that won’t really factor into what eventually is settled on the field.

For many high school sports fans, it’s the favorite time of year. Join us now as we prepare for kickoff.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 1 bracket mapped out on the Lower Peninsula. (Middle) The Division 3 map keeps four mid-Michigan teams together.

1st & Goal: Week 7 in Review

October 12, 2020

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Yes, it’s true. We’re days from mid-October, with only two regular-season football games remaining, celebrating league champions and starting to look forward to the MHSAA Playoffs.

All of that has seemed to come on quickly this fall, but Week 7 provided us even more of what we’re used to enjoying every year.

In front of larger crowds at many stadiums, we watched the most unusual fall in a century continue to take shape – starting with a major southwestern matchup Thursday night and concluding Saturday with a few more indicators of what might be on the way as this season’s best contenders continue to rise.  

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Port Huron 20, Port Huron Northern 7 The Big Reds (4-0) added on to last year’s playoff-opener win over Northern by breaking a three-game regular-season losing streak versus the Huskies (2-1). In doing so, Port Huron clinched a share of the Macomb Area Conference Blue championship and can finish an outright run this week against winless Sterling Heights. Click for more from the Port Huron Times Herald.

Watch list North Branch 56, Richmond 7 This is two weeks straight for the Broncos (4-0), who have avenged both of their regular-season losses from last year and sit alone atop the Blue Water Area Conference standings.  

Remember this one Freeland 21, Saginaw Swan Valley 14 The Falcons (3-1) broke a four-game losing streak against the Vikings (2-2) and in doing so clinched a share of the Tri-Valley Conference Central title.

More shoutouts Reese 23, Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port 20 The Rockets (1-3) made their first win count, upsetting Laker (3-1) and toppling it from a first-place tie in the Greater Thumb Conference West. Cass City 28, Unionville-Sebewaing 24 The Red Hawks, who don’t play Laker during this abbreviated season, were beneficiaries of that Reese upset and now sit atop the West together with only Bad Axe thanks also to this close win over USA (2-2).

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Grosse Pointe South 21, Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 17 Joining one of the toughest leagues in the state hasn’t fazed newcomer Grosse Pointe South (3-1) this fall, as it showed against reigning champ Chippewa Valley (2-2). The Blue Devils find themselves tied with Macomb Dakota and Sterling Heights Stevenson for first place, and with Stevenson up next. Click for more from MLive-Detroit and see highlights below from State Champs Sports Network.

Watch list Clarkston 31, Lake Orion 7 The Wolves (4-0) continued their bounce back this fall by clinching a share of the Oakland Activities Association Red title while dealing the Dragons (2-1) their first defeat.

Remember this one Birmingham Seaholm 35, Birmingham Groves 28 Make that two in a row in this rivalry for Seaholm (3-1) after breaking a former seven-game losing streak to Groves (2-2) during last season’s playoffs.

More shoutouts Detroit Catholic Central 27, Orchard Lake St. Mary's 10 The Shamrocks (4-0) capped a perfect run through the Detroit Catholic League Central, holding their three league opponents to a combined 32 points. Rochester Hills Stoney Creek 23, Rochester Adams 10 The Cougars (4-0) defeated Adams (1-3) for the first time since 2014 and in doing so clinched a share of the OAA White championship.  

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER Mason 42, Fowlerville 14 The Bulldogs (4-0) ran their regular-season winning streak to 15 and set up a Week 9 winner-takes-all with also-undefeated Williamston for the Capital Area Activities Conference Red championship. Mason put up its most points in a game this season and has now held its four opponents to a combined 43. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Watch list Olivet 30, Lake Odessa Lakewood 6 The Eagles (4-0) extended their Greater Lansing Activities Conference winning streak to 18 while clinching a share of the league title – and with unbeaten Williamston up next for an intriguing nonleague matchup.

Remember this one DeWitt 43, Warren De La Salle Collegiate 3 The Panthers (4-0) already were off to another strong local start, but defeating the Pilots (1-3) on the road no doubt drew plenty of statewide eyes.  

More shoutouts Breckenridge 29, Carson City-Crystal 7 The Huskies (3-1) are 5-for-5 in the Mid-State Activities Conference, this win clinching their fifth title in five seasons playing in the league. Durand 20, Chesaning 14 The Railroaders (4-0) not only are off to their best start since 2016, but this was their first margin of victory smaller than 21 this fall.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Traverse City Central 57, Alpena 0 The Trojans (4-0) earned a share of a repeat championship in the Big North Conference, and how they’ve rumbled through league competition the last few years has been exceptional. Central has won 13 straight league games, going back nearly three full league seasons, and with the last 11 consecutive wins all by at least 24 points. Click for more from MI Sports Now.

Watch list Evart 34, Lake City 21 After opening 0-2, Evart (2-2) has won two weeks over opponents that last season outscored the Wildcats by a combined 64-12.

Remember this one Harbor Springs 57, Frankfort 22 The Rams (3-1) set themselves up to play Johannesburg-Lewiston in Week 9 for the Northern Michigan Football Conference Legacy title.

More shoutouts Oscoda 58, Blanchard Montabella 0 That the Owls are 4-0 isn’t super stunning coming off last year’s league title, but that they’ve yet to give up a point is impressive no matter the circumstances. East Jordan 48, Alcona 22 The Red Devils (3-1), counting the end of 2019, have won six of their last eight games.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Milan 24, New Boston Huron 7 A Week 5 loss to current leader Riverview has Milan (3-1) still trailing in the Huron League by a game with one to play. But the Big Reds hung on to a shared title hope by handing New Boston Huron (3-1) its first defeat. Click for more from the Monroe News.

Watch list Hillsdale 22, Brooklyn Columbia Central 21 Blissfield leads the Lenawee County Athletic Association, but Hillsdale (3-1) is tied with Week 9 opponent Clinton for second place as both hope for a Royals stumble.

Remember this one Michigan Center 36, Grass Lake 28 After two weeks off, Michigan Center (1-1) shook up the Cascades Conference standings, pulling Grass Lake (3-1) out of a tie for first place.

More shoutouts Adrian Madison 39, Morenci 22 The Trojans’ next two opponents are a combined 1-7, and if Madison gets to 5-1 it would guarantee its winningest season since 2009. Erie Mason 52, Britton Deerfield 12 The Eagles (4-0) won to set up a Tri-County Conference title match for this week with also-undefeated Sand Creek.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Centreville 36, Mendon 0 The Bulldogs are well into a third season of impressive football after struggles through most of the last decade, and this might be one of the biggest wins in recent memory. Centreville traveled to Mendon and emerged in the matchup of unbeatens with a share of the Southwest 10 Conference championship and a second shutout in four games this fall. Click for more from the Sturgis Journal.

Watch list Battle Creek Harper Creek 28, Coldwater 7 This puts Harper Creek at only 1-2 in the Interstate 8 Athletic Conference, but dropped Coldwater into a mix of six teams that has one or two league defeats.

Remember this one Marshall 41, Parma Western 27 Having lost to two other league contenders close, Marshall (2-2) caused some I8AC juggling as well with this win over former lone league leader Western (3-1).

More shoutouts Buchanan 42, Comstock 7 The Bucks (4-0) inched closer to a possible Berrien-Cass-St. Joseph Conference title, now needing to win one of their final two regular-season games to clinch a share. Battle Creek Pennfield 28, Jackson Lumen Christi 20 The Panthers (2-2) hadn’t gotten within 15 points of Lumen Christi (2-2) during their first six meetings as part of the I8AC together.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Kingsford 30, Gladstone 28 Getting a read on the Upper Peninsula pecking order is getting pretty difficult this fall, as Marquette, Sault Ste. Marie and Gladstone all have taken turns as the possible leader. Kingsford (3-1) is at least in the growing mix now coming off this close win – which also gave the Braves (2-1) three two-point games in three tries this season. Click for more from RRN Sports.

Watch list Sault Ste. Marie 34, Benzie Central 13 The Blue Devils (3-1) bounced back from their two-point Week 6 loss to Gladstone by sending Benzie Central to 2-2.

Remember this one Marquette 44, Menominee 26 That’s two Marquette wins over the rival Maroons (2-2) over four weeks, this one giving Marquette (3-1) a share of the Great Northern Conference title.

More shoutouts Gwinn 14, Norway 12 The Modeltowners (2-2) avenged a 28-20 loss from a year ago. Ishpeming Westwood 55, L'Anse 15 The Patriots (3-1) gave up a forfeit to open the season but haven’t lost since.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Byron Center 36, Lowell 22 The Bulldogs (4-0) became the lone leaders atop a strong Ottawa-Kent Conference White, adding a pair of fourth-quarter touchdowns to hold off the Red Arrows in another matchup of previously-undefeated teams. Lowell (3-1) pulled within seven late before Byron Center added one more score. See highlights below from WZZM.

Watch list Muskegon Catholic Central 40, Manistee 0 The Crusaders (4-0) clinched a share of the Lakes 8 Athletic Conference championship in dominating fashion, shutting out Manistee (3-1) for the second-straight season.

Remember this one Reed City 70, Newaygo 40 This one will reach the record book as offense reigned and Reed City (4-0) held on to its lead in the Central State Activities Association Gold.

More shoutouts Grand Rapids South Christian 32, Cedar Springs 14 The Sailors (4-0) join Week 9 opponent Grand Rapids Catholic Central alone atop the O-K Gold as both have claimed wins over Cedar Springs (2-2). Hopkins 34, Belding 28 The Vikings (4-0) are leaders alone in the O-K White after handing Belding (3-1) its lone defeat.

8-Player

HEADLINER Mayville 58, Deckerville 54 As noted in Friday’s preview, Mayville has seemed like a program on the verge of this level of win. The Wildcats (4-0) not only avenged last season’s 44-12 loss to the Eagles (3-1) but they ended Deckerville’s 18-game regular-season winning streak while staying tied for first in the North Central Thumb League Stars. Click for more from the Huron Daily Tribune.

Watch list Pellston 34, Gaylord St. Mary 28 While the Ski Valley Conference standings will be unbalanced because of the abbreviated schedule, Pellston (4-0) absolutely has earned its status as at least a co-champion by finishing its league slate with an impressive win over the Snowbirds (3-1).

Remember this one Bridgman 34, New Buffalo 20 Five teams in the Southwestern Michigan 8-man Football League have one conference loss, with Bridgman (3-1) handing New Buffalo (3-1) its first.

More shoutouts Morrice 56, Genesee 14 As the NCTL Stars reshuffled in part because of Mayville/Deckerville over the weekend, the Orioles (4-0) joined Mayville among undefeated teams in the league by handing Genesee (3-1) its first defeat. Munising 28, Stephenson 14 The Eagles (3-1) don’t lose a step in their Great Lakes Eight West race, but Munising (4-0) impressed again in remaining undefeated.

PHOTO: Fremont earned its first win this season in Week 6, defeating Remus Chippewa Hills 42-26. (Click to see more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)