Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '16

October 24, 2016

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

There was a wheel and something that looked like a magic wand. Another started out looking like the head of a caterpillar.

A number of Michigan football teams realized their sky-high dreams with Sunday’s playoff selection announcement on Fox Sports Detroit. 

But earlier that day, as is the case at the end of each fall, shaping this season’s tournament at times looked a little like finding pictures in the clouds.

Beginning last night and into this morning, MHSAA staff have been busily gathering game days and times for this weekend’s opening round. We’re assigning officials for those contests. Schools are preparing for what likely will be one of their biggest crowds of the season. And, of course, teams are preparing for what surely will be one of their most memorable games.

But before all of that could begin, we met Sunday morning with nine maps of Michigan and 272 dots that needed to be organized to set another playoffs in motion.

As we’ve done the past five seasons, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2016 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2016.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were 218 automatic qualifiers by win total – only two more than the record low set a year ago – with the final 38 at-large qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. For the second consecutive season there were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams from Class A and 11 each from Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2016

First things, first: Congratulations to five first-time playoff qualifiers  Bloomfield Hills, Detroit Delta Prep, Southfield Arts & Technology, Southfield Bradford and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian. Bloomfield Hills (Lahser and Andover) and Southfield Arts & Technology (Southfield and Southfield-Lathrup) were created by mergers of previous schools. Southfield A&T and Detroit Delta Prep are eligible for tournament play this season for the first time. Bradford and Tri-unity Christian both started programs during the latter half of the 2000s; Tri-unity qualified in 8-player after moving back to that format from 11-player this fall. Of 617 varsity football programs that played games this season (including five not eligible for the playoffs as either a first-year program or with an enrollment too high for 8-player), all but 18 have made the playoffs at least once going back to the first series in 1975.

Tie it up: We had a few ties in a few ways this season. In two situations, we had multiple teams with the same enrollment at a line between divisions. In those cases, the teams with the higher playoff point averages go to the larger divisions – so Ferndale went to Division 2 and East Lansing to Division 3 to settle one tie, and Lansing Sexton went to Division 4 and Dowagiac to Division 5 to settle the other. The additional tie came in 8-player football, with Portland St. Patrick and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian both having the same playoff point average, the same opponents’ winning percentage and drawn into the same District. A coin flip was used to determine St. Patrick as the top seed and home team both this week and next if it advances and plays the Defenders.

Local really is the rule: Division 3 provided us with a fine example to help show that we work to draw maps locally and beginning with the earliest rounds. There were at least three ways to separate the schools in Region 3 District 1: East Lansing, DeWitt, Fowlerville and Mason. DeWitt, as the westernmost of the group, could’ve been drawn southwest with R2D2’s Vicksburg, Battle Creek Harper Creek and Coldwater, replacing Chelsea. Doing so would’ve literally split the state’s regions down the middle along U.S. 127, which is a favorable picture. But protocol is to favor local matchups at the earliest rounds, and it just didn’t make sense to take DeWitt away from three schools mere minutes away when subbing it in for Chelsea would’ve created a wash in terms of travel for the other three teams in R2D2.

Sometimes, there’s no choice: But keeping a group of four local teams together often is impossible. Remember, 32 dots usually are spread out at least all over the Lower Peninsula. In Division 4, we had Grand Rapids Catholic Central, Wyoming Godwin Heights, Wyoming Kelloggsville and Grand Rapids South Christian stacked nicely along U.S. 131 – but had to send southernmost South Christian down with Benton Harbor, Three Rivers and Hudsonville Unity Christian because there was no other grouping for Allendale, which is about 20 miles west of Grand Rapids. Another incident of splitting up near-neighbors happened in Division 2; we had Lowell and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central next door to each other, but no other Grand Rapids area teams qualify. By only a few miles, Forest Hills Central is south of Lowell – so although the Rangers had shorter drives than Lowell to possible opponents both north and south, they went into a group with Portage Northern, Portage Central and Battle Creek Lakeview, and Lowell went north to join Greenville, Traverse City West and Traverse City Central.

Why coast to coast: It wasn’t lost on the committee that teams waking up looking at Lake Huron traveling to play on Lake Michigan isn’t the greatest scenario. But it was the best of the options, and we stayed consistent by setting up a possible two District trips across the Lower Peninsula. Tawas will journey to Maple City Glen Lake in Division 6 this week. With wins this week, Lincoln Alcona could end up heading to Frankfort for a Division 8 District Final. Those trips aren’t ideal, but they did allow us to keep northern Lower Peninsula teams together – and in reality, aren’t too different than when teams from the Lower Peninsula and Upper Peninsula match up the first week, as will be the case in Division 4 (Whitehall to Escanaba), Division 5 (Kalkaska to Menominee and Grayling to Kingsford), Division 6 (Charlevoix to Negaunee and Boyne City to Calumet) and Division 8 (Gaylord St. Mary to Newberry).

It’s just the math: The one unexpected oddity of this week’s matchups is Canton going back to Northville for the second week in a row, and after beating Northville 42-27 last week. But math does rule, and Northville does have a higher playoff point average despite that Week 9 loss; the Mustangs beat five teams that finished with winning records, while Canton beat three – which of course is no fault of the Chiefs. It's just the way – rarely – things work out.

At the end of the day …

In six years of being part of these discussions, this weekend’s at least seemed to be the most extensive. We had two and three versions of multiple divisions before deciding which we believed to be the best.

Only one division map – 8-player – was an absolute slam dunk. The rest received plenty of scrutiny from a committee that now includes veterans going back to the beginning but also has had some new eyes join in over the last couple of years. That variety of viewpoints certainly pays off.

And wow, did we fall into some incredible first-week matchups:

• Rockford and Hudsonville in a rematch of the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red-deciding game of Week 9 (a Hudsonville 14-7 win).

• Traverse City West vs. Traverse City Central for the first time in playoff history (Central won 10-8 in Week 3).

• Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook Kingswood at Detroit Country Day in a homecoming for longtime Yellowjackets coach Joe D’Angelo.

• Constantine at Schoolcraft in a matchup of longtime southwestern rivals (Schoolcraft won 20-10 in Week 8).

• Cedarville at Engadine in arguably the most intriguing of three all-U.P. 8-player matchups (Engadine won 52-42 in Week 7).

Truly, at the end of November, the best teams will have to beat the rest to finish as champions – regardless of maps, matchups, weather and anything else that won’t really factor into what eventually is settled on the field.

For many high school sports fans, it’s the favorite time of year. Join us now as we prepare for kickoff.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 1 bracket mapped out on the Lower Peninsula. (Middle) The Division 3 map keeps four mid-Michigan teams together.

1st & Goal: Week 4 in Review

September 22, 2020

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

High school football returned to communities all over Michigan this past weekend. Everything from mask requirements to spectator limits made games look different.

But by the end of Saturday, much more felt closer to normal as nearly 600 teams took the field.

We’re still running a little behind, but catching up quickly with our “Week 4” review briefly detailing some of the results that could end up mattering most as we quickly roll through this abbreviated regular season.

We again split the state into regions and 8-player, with links to coverage and available video highlights included if tweeted by statewide media.

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Frankenmuth 41, Freeland 3 Both won nine games last season and would be part of the Tri-Valley Conference Central together again this fall, but that division was split into two smaller ones for the abbreviated schedule. The Eagles got off to a fast start rolling up 312 yards rushing and holding the Falcons to only 144 yards total. Click for more from the Saginaw News.

Watch list Harbor Beach 16 Ubly 14 Harbor Beach claimed last year’s Greater Thumb Conference East title by a win over Ubly, and finds itself quickly leading the way again thanks to a late go-ahead 2-point conversion.

Remember this one Beaverton 6, Sanford Meridian 0 The Beavers started their Jack Pine Conference repeat campaign by defeating another major challenger in Meridian – and Beaverton doesn’t play last year’s runner-up Clare this season as that game previously had been scheduled for Week 3.

More shoutouts Linden 35, Flushing 21 The Eagles are coming off two straight 4-5 finishes, both of which began with losses to Flushing. Davison 48, Flint Powers Catholic 0 These teams combined for 22 wins last season, but Davison won the matchup this weekend by this score for the second straight year.  

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Detroit Cass Tech 34, Detroit Martin Luther King 26 It’s tough to think of a better season start for the Technicians than avenging last year’s 47-7 loss to their biggest rival. But this might just be round one again this fall. These two very well could meet in the Detroit Public School League championship game in four weeks. Click for more from the Detroit News and see highlights below from State Champs Sports Network.

Watch list Macomb Dakota 29, Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 20 Dakota already had avenged last season’s 27-21 loss to eventual Macomb Area Conference Red champion Chippewa Valley, defeating the Big Reds 34-13 in a playoff opener. But this win makes the Cougars possible league favorites.

Remember this one Armada 24, Richmond 23 The Tigers are playing for their first winning season since 2012, and breaking a nine-game losing streak against Richmond is a great way to start.

More shoutouts West Bloomfield 39, Oak Park 0 These two Oakland Activities Association 2019 division champions are playing in the same OAA Red this fall. Orchard Lake St. Mary’s 28, Walled Lake Western 7 The Eaglets opened with an impressive win over a Western team that fell a one-point loss to the eventual champion short from playing at Ford Field in 2019.

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER DeWitt 37, Portland 3 After Portland’s 29-27 win in this matchup was one of the most memorable games in the Lansing area for 2019, DeWitt made one of the loudest impressions statewide to start 2020. Both programs have averaged double-digit wins over the last five seasons. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Watch list Williamston 22, Fowlerville 6 Both were among four teams from the Capital Area Activities Conference Red to make the playoffs last season, and Williamston likely jumps in among the league title contenders with this win.

Remember this one Grand Ledge 34, St. Johns 17 The Comets won just two games a year ago, but opened with a win over a 2019 playoff team.

More shoutouts Saranac 35, Fulton 6 Saranac is halfway to last year’s win total after avenging a 29-point loss to the Pirates. Ithaca 47, Saginaw Nouvel 27 This was a major win for the Yellowjackets as both 2019 playoff teams are now part of the same division of the TVC West.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Traverse City Central 53, Traverse City West 13 This was the largest margin of victory in this rivalry game ever, after West split off from the former Traverse City High School in 1997. The Trojans have won two straight in the series. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.

Watch list McBain 30, Lake City 0 The Ramblers had lost five straight to Lake City, but look immediately like a contender in the Highland Conference.

Remember this one Charlevoix 58, Frankfort 14 The Red Rayders enjoyed one of the state’s most impressive turnarounds last season, and the momentum seems to be continuing as they scored their most points in a game since 2014.

More shoutouts East Jordan 14, Elk Rapids 6 The Red Devils had lost 12 straight to the Elks and hadn’t won a season opener since 2016. Harbor Springs 49, St. Ignace 0 These two were both playoff teams last season, when Harbor Springs won their matchup only 16-0.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Sturgis 25, Three Rivers 21 The Trojans have won just one game each of the last two seasons, but former star quarterback Chance Stewart has them off to a great start in 2020. This win in his head coaching debut was the program’s first over Three Rivers since 2015, the last time Sturgis finished a season with a winning record. Click for more including video from JoeInsider.com.

Watch list Schoolcraft 49, Constantine 14 The Eagles ran their winning streak to eight over rival Constantine, but both still have league title hopes in separate divisions after sharing a championship a year ago while playing in the same Southwestern Athletic Conference Lakeshore.

Remember this one Battle Creek Pennfield 26, Battle Creek Harper Creek 20 Two good signs: The Panthers matched last season’s win total in the season debut and with their second win in seven tries against Harper Creek since the two joined the Interstate 8 Athletic Conference together.  

More shoutouts Portage Northern 15, Stevensville Lakeshore 12 This has turned into one of the state’s closest annual matchups with now nine of their last 10 matchups decided by eight points or fewer; Northern has won three straight over the Lancers. Mendon 26, White Pigeon 24 The Hornets avenged last season’s two-point loss, especially key in a Southwest 10 Conference that’s down to just five 11-player teams.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Adrian Madison 42, Ottawa Lake Whiteford 24 The Trojans, seeking their first winning season since 2009, couldn’t have started better than with their first victory over Whiteford since 1980. The Bobcats had won last year’s matchup 42-14. Click for more from the Adrian Daily Telegram.

Watch list Jackson Lumen Christi 28, Marshall 27 This was arguably the most exciting nail-biter of this week’s openers, with the Titans coming back to score the game-winning points during the final minutes.

Remember this one Hillsdale 28, Hudson 21 For the third time in five seasons, this one was decided by eight points or fewer, as the reigning Lenawee County Athletic Association champion ran its league winning streak to nine.

More shoutouts Chelsea 35, Dexter 12 The Bulldogs retained their streak in this rivalry after a much closer win a year ago. Erie Mason 54, Petersburg Summerfield 21 A capable scorer in 2019 that struggled defensively, Erie Mason opened its tenure in the Tri-County Conference giving up its fewest points in a game since Week 2 of 2016.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Sault Ste. Marie 14, Traverse City St. Francis 7 Many eyes likely were caught by this Blue Devils win, with St. Francis coming off a trip to last year’s Regional Finals and averaging nearly 11 wins per season over the last five. But Sault Ste. Marie quietly has been building toward an attention grabber like this one, going 7-4 a year ago and winning a Division 4 playoff game. Click for more from The Sault Evening News.

Watch list Marquette 41, Menominee 18 This first meeting of two this fall didn’t count toward the Great Northern Conference standings but did send a pretty strong message as Marquette looks to win a third-straight title.

Remember this one Kingsford 17, Calumet 16 The Flivvers moved ahead to stay with 4:35 to play, handing Calumet only its second regular-season loss since 2017.

More shoutouts Houghton 3, Bark River-Harris 0 The Gremlins won their season opener for the first time since 2016 and after earning only two victories all of last season. Negaunee 39, Manistique 8 After just edging the Emeralds by two in 2019, Negaunee was able to stretch the margin this weekend.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 21, Grand Rapids Christian 13 Forest Hills Central, which finished second last season in the Ottawa-Kent Conference White, welcomed reigning O-K Gold champion Grand Rapids Christian back into the league after four seasons away. The Rangers should again be White contenders, especially with reigning champion Cedar Springs among teams that moved to a new-look Gold this fall.  

Watch list Kent City 14, Morley Stanwood 0 The Eagles avenged the loss that decided the Central State Activities Association Silver title in favor of Morley Stanwood a year ago.

Remember this one Rockford 16, Jenison 13 (OT) The Rams are reigning champs in the O-K Red but got an immediate challenge from new league member Jenison, which formerly played in the O-K Black.

More shoutouts Hopkins 43, Muskegon Orchard View 0 The Vikings enjoyed an impressive start against an Orchard View program that was undefeated last regular season. Hudsonville 21, East Kentwood 13 East Kentwood had dismantled what was left of Hudsonville’s league title hopes last season – and the Eagles also broke a three-game losing streak to the Falcons with this avenging.

8-Player

HEADLINER Vestaburg 28, Onekama 6 After going 0-9 in its final season of 11-player two years ago, Vestaburg improved substantially to 5-3 with the move to 8-player in 2019. But this weekend’s opening win certainly has been its most impressive post-switch, as the Portagers are just two years removed from finishing 8-Player Division 2 runner-up and went 7-4 last fall. Click for more from the Greenville Daily News.

Watch list Posen 52, Mio 22 The Thunderbolts’ undefeated league title run last season included a 20-point win over Posen, but the Vikings opened this fall by earning an upper hand in the North Star League’s first-year 8-player standings.

Remember this one Deckerville 58, New Haven Merritt Academy 17 These two reigning North Central Thumb League division champs are in the same division this fall, and Deckerville made an early statement.

More shoutouts North Adams-Jerome 14, Battle Creek St. Philip 12 The Rams beat the Tigers for the first time in four recent tries and after falling 41-0 last season. Genesee 54, Kingston 28 The Wolves more than flipped last year’s score after losing 52-30 to Kingston in 2019.

PHOTO: Marquette’s Justin Jurmu tries to pull in a pass from quarterback Austin Ridl, with Menominee’s Brady Waara trailing. (Photo by Cara Kamps.)