Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '16

October 24, 2016

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

There was a wheel and something that looked like a magic wand. Another started out looking like the head of a caterpillar.

A number of Michigan football teams realized their sky-high dreams with Sunday’s playoff selection announcement on Fox Sports Detroit. 

But earlier that day, as is the case at the end of each fall, shaping this season’s tournament at times looked a little like finding pictures in the clouds.

Beginning last night and into this morning, MHSAA staff have been busily gathering game days and times for this weekend’s opening round. We’re assigning officials for those contests. Schools are preparing for what likely will be one of their biggest crowds of the season. And, of course, teams are preparing for what surely will be one of their most memorable games.

But before all of that could begin, we met Sunday morning with nine maps of Michigan and 272 dots that needed to be organized to set another playoffs in motion.

As we’ve done the past five seasons, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2016 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2016.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were 218 automatic qualifiers by win total – only two more than the record low set a year ago – with the final 38 at-large qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. For the second consecutive season there were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams from Class A and 11 each from Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2016

First things, first: Congratulations to five first-time playoff qualifiers  Bloomfield Hills, Detroit Delta Prep, Southfield Arts & Technology, Southfield Bradford and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian. Bloomfield Hills (Lahser and Andover) and Southfield Arts & Technology (Southfield and Southfield-Lathrup) were created by mergers of previous schools. Southfield A&T and Detroit Delta Prep are eligible for tournament play this season for the first time. Bradford and Tri-unity Christian both started programs during the latter half of the 2000s; Tri-unity qualified in 8-player after moving back to that format from 11-player this fall. Of 617 varsity football programs that played games this season (including five not eligible for the playoffs as either a first-year program or with an enrollment too high for 8-player), all but 18 have made the playoffs at least once going back to the first series in 1975.

Tie it up: We had a few ties in a few ways this season. In two situations, we had multiple teams with the same enrollment at a line between divisions. In those cases, the teams with the higher playoff point averages go to the larger divisions – so Ferndale went to Division 2 and East Lansing to Division 3 to settle one tie, and Lansing Sexton went to Division 4 and Dowagiac to Division 5 to settle the other. The additional tie came in 8-player football, with Portland St. Patrick and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian both having the same playoff point average, the same opponents’ winning percentage and drawn into the same District. A coin flip was used to determine St. Patrick as the top seed and home team both this week and next if it advances and plays the Defenders.

Local really is the rule: Division 3 provided us with a fine example to help show that we work to draw maps locally and beginning with the earliest rounds. There were at least three ways to separate the schools in Region 3 District 1: East Lansing, DeWitt, Fowlerville and Mason. DeWitt, as the westernmost of the group, could’ve been drawn southwest with R2D2’s Vicksburg, Battle Creek Harper Creek and Coldwater, replacing Chelsea. Doing so would’ve literally split the state’s regions down the middle along U.S. 127, which is a favorable picture. But protocol is to favor local matchups at the earliest rounds, and it just didn’t make sense to take DeWitt away from three schools mere minutes away when subbing it in for Chelsea would’ve created a wash in terms of travel for the other three teams in R2D2.

Sometimes, there’s no choice: But keeping a group of four local teams together often is impossible. Remember, 32 dots usually are spread out at least all over the Lower Peninsula. In Division 4, we had Grand Rapids Catholic Central, Wyoming Godwin Heights, Wyoming Kelloggsville and Grand Rapids South Christian stacked nicely along U.S. 131 – but had to send southernmost South Christian down with Benton Harbor, Three Rivers and Hudsonville Unity Christian because there was no other grouping for Allendale, which is about 20 miles west of Grand Rapids. Another incident of splitting up near-neighbors happened in Division 2; we had Lowell and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central next door to each other, but no other Grand Rapids area teams qualify. By only a few miles, Forest Hills Central is south of Lowell – so although the Rangers had shorter drives than Lowell to possible opponents both north and south, they went into a group with Portage Northern, Portage Central and Battle Creek Lakeview, and Lowell went north to join Greenville, Traverse City West and Traverse City Central.

Why coast to coast: It wasn’t lost on the committee that teams waking up looking at Lake Huron traveling to play on Lake Michigan isn’t the greatest scenario. But it was the best of the options, and we stayed consistent by setting up a possible two District trips across the Lower Peninsula. Tawas will journey to Maple City Glen Lake in Division 6 this week. With wins this week, Lincoln Alcona could end up heading to Frankfort for a Division 8 District Final. Those trips aren’t ideal, but they did allow us to keep northern Lower Peninsula teams together – and in reality, aren’t too different than when teams from the Lower Peninsula and Upper Peninsula match up the first week, as will be the case in Division 4 (Whitehall to Escanaba), Division 5 (Kalkaska to Menominee and Grayling to Kingsford), Division 6 (Charlevoix to Negaunee and Boyne City to Calumet) and Division 8 (Gaylord St. Mary to Newberry).

It’s just the math: The one unexpected oddity of this week’s matchups is Canton going back to Northville for the second week in a row, and after beating Northville 42-27 last week. But math does rule, and Northville does have a higher playoff point average despite that Week 9 loss; the Mustangs beat five teams that finished with winning records, while Canton beat three – which of course is no fault of the Chiefs. It's just the way – rarely – things work out.

At the end of the day …

In six years of being part of these discussions, this weekend’s at least seemed to be the most extensive. We had two and three versions of multiple divisions before deciding which we believed to be the best.

Only one division map – 8-player – was an absolute slam dunk. The rest received plenty of scrutiny from a committee that now includes veterans going back to the beginning but also has had some new eyes join in over the last couple of years. That variety of viewpoints certainly pays off.

And wow, did we fall into some incredible first-week matchups:

• Rockford and Hudsonville in a rematch of the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red-deciding game of Week 9 (a Hudsonville 14-7 win).

• Traverse City West vs. Traverse City Central for the first time in playoff history (Central won 10-8 in Week 3).

• Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook Kingswood at Detroit Country Day in a homecoming for longtime Yellowjackets coach Joe D’Angelo.

• Constantine at Schoolcraft in a matchup of longtime southwestern rivals (Schoolcraft won 20-10 in Week 8).

• Cedarville at Engadine in arguably the most intriguing of three all-U.P. 8-player matchups (Engadine won 52-42 in Week 7).

Truly, at the end of November, the best teams will have to beat the rest to finish as champions – regardless of maps, matchups, weather and anything else that won’t really factor into what eventually is settled on the field.

For many high school sports fans, it’s the favorite time of year. Join us now as we prepare for kickoff.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 1 bracket mapped out on the Lower Peninsula. (Middle) The Division 3 map keeps four mid-Michigan teams together.

Drive for Detroit: Week 5 Preview

September 20, 2018

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

As we dive into the midpoint of the 2018 high school football regular season, there’s more than meets the eye to many of our Week 5 matchups.

Sure, we’ve got some of the usual regulars on this week’s preview list – Clinton Township Chippewa Valley vs. Macomb Dakota among them – but it’s fair to say a number of others discussed below are a bit off the usual board, but with plenty of significance upon further view.

Games below are tonight unless noted. Check out the MHSAA Score Center for the full schedule and results as games are completed. MHSAA.tv will broadcast 15 games this weekend, including our top game from the “Bay & Thumb” area. Our “Drive for Detroit” previews are powered by MI Student Aid.

Bay & Thumb

Davison (4-0) at Grand Blanc (4-0)

The Saginaw Valley League Blue is topped by three undefeated teams – these two and Lapeer – and this one will go a long way toward determining the eventual champion. But it also could have playoff implications down the road – the Bobcats are tied for fourth and Davison is tied for ninth in playoff point average among teams that traditionally fall into Division 1 for the postseason.  

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Swartz Creek (4-0) at Flint Hamady (4-0), Ubly (3-1) at Harbor Beach (3-1), Harrison (2-2) at Beaverton (3-1), Richmond (3-1) at Yale (2-2).

Greater Detroit 

Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (4-0) at Macomb Dakota (4-0)

Like Davison and Grand Blanc mentioned above, these two rank highly among likely Division 1 playoff teams – Chippewa Valley first in playoff point average and Dakota tied for seventh – and they’ve seen each other in the postseason as well five of the last six seasons. The Big Reds won both meetings in 2017 and this season have handed the only losses to Saline and Roseville. Dakota is averaging 45 points per game during its best start since its 2013 league title season.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Detroit Cody (4-0) at Detroit Mumford (3-1), Garden City (3-1) at Dearborn Heights Crestwood (4-0), Auburn Hills Avondale (3-1) at Farmington (4-0), SATURDAY Detroit Catholic Central (3-1) at Birmingham Brother Rice (3-1).

Mid-Michigan

DeWitt (4-0) at East Lansing (4-0)

They have two of the richest traditions in the Lansing area and will meet as members of the same league for the first time. The winner will earn a strong upper hand in an otherwise middling Capital Area Activities Conference Blue, and these two also met in the playoffs as recently as 2016. DeWitt still scores a bunch and East Lansing has offensive firepower too, but the defenses could emerge as the stars of this meeting – DeWitt has given up only 7.8 points per game, and East Lansing a respectable 16 ppg.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Lansing Catholic (4-0) at Portland (4-0), Canton (3-1) at Brighton (3-1), Ovid-Elsie (3-1) at New Lothrop (4-0), Haslett (4-0) at Williamston (3-1).

Northern Lower Peninsula

Traverse City Central (3-1) at Gaylord (4-0)

First-year coach and former assistant Shawn Sargent has the Blue Devils off to their first 4-0 start since their last playoff season in 2015. Gaylord has some solid wins, but Central will provide the strongest test to date. The Trojans have to be revved up after a close loss to rival Traverse City West last week. Central shines especially on defense, giving up only 9.5 points per game.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Oscoda (3-1) at Rogers City (4-0), Traverse City St. Francis (4-0) at Grayling (2-2), Leroy Pine River (4-0) at McBain (2-2), Traverse City West (2-2) at Alpena (2-2).

Southeast & Border 

Athens (3-0) at Adrian Lenawee Christian (4-0)

The Southern Central Athletic Association has only four 11-player teams but two of the most intriguing matchups in the region this weekend. (Pittsford and Climax-Scotts line up on the other side.) Lenawee Christian is 4-0 for the first time ever; the Cougars are in their 11th season as a varsity program. And Athens? The Indians didn’t have an opponent Week 2, but have outscored their three this season by a combined 107-0.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Jackson (4-0) at Chelsea (3-1), Concord (3-1) at Springport (4-0), Union City (2-2) at Reading (4-0), Addison (2-2) at Grass Lake (4-0).

Southwest Corridor

Watervliet (2-2) at Kalamazoo United (4-0)

Watervliet has won outright or shared seven straight league titles, but enters Southwestern Athletic Conference Valley play with a pair of close losses – their first regular-season defeats since Week 6 of 2016. United also was 4-0 coming into this league opener a year ago, and Watervliet won 52-34. But United – giving up only 27 points total over four games this time, might have the defense to slow down a Watervliet offense averaging 43 points per game.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Paw Paw (3-1) at Three Rivers (4-0), Muskegon Catholic Central (2-2) at Cassopolis (4-0), Stevensville Lakeshore (2-2) at Portage Central (3-1), Battle Creek Central (3-1) at Benton Harbor (1-2).

Upper Peninsula 

Harbor Springs (4-0) at St. Ignace (2-2)

With their best start since 1999, the Rams have equaled last season’s win total and are lined up to chase their best record since going 6-4 in 2000. But St. Ignace, despite losing to Johannesburg-Lewiston last week, has experienced a turn as well after uncharacteristically winning just a game a year ago. The Saints not only have more wins than last season already, but with 23 more points will eclipse last year’s output.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Norway (2-2) at Calumet (4-0), Negaunee (2-2) at Ishpeming (4-0), Maple City Glen Lake (2-2) at Gladstone (2-2), Petoskey (2-2) at Marquette (2-2).

West Michigan

Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian (3-1) at Hopkins (3-1)

The Ottawa-Kent Conference Silver has the smallest schools of the league’s seven divisions and doesn’t get the attention of the other high-profile leagues. But the Silver’s best have had big moments too over the years, and these two teams are hoping to ride fast starts into more over the next two months. NorthPointe started 5-0 a year ago before hitting the tough part of the league schedule – but did make the playoffs. Hopkins is seeking its first playoff berth since 2014 and already has avenged Silver losses from last season to Belding and Wyoming Godwin Heights.

Others that caught my eye FRIDAY Hudsonville (4-0) at Jenison (3-1), Whitehall (3-1) at Montague (3-1), Muskegon Oakridge (4-0) at Ravenna (3-1), Grand Rapids South Christian (3-1) at Hudsonville Unity Christian (4-0).

8-Player

Onekama (4-0) at Wyoming Tri-unity Christian (4-0), Saturday

The Portagers seemed on the verge of something special last season, when they finished 9-2 losing in the 8-Player Division 2 Regional Finals. So far this fall they’ve outscored opponents by a combined 196-6, with only reigning Division 1 champion Central Lake getting on the board. Tri-unity is coming off its first challenge of the season – a 38-27 win over Suttons Bay – and could next provide Onekama’s best test to date, and with the Midwest Central Michigan West championship perhaps on the line.

Others that caught my eye: FRIDAY Morrice (4-0) at Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart (3-1), Battle Creek St. Philip (3-1) at Camden-Frontier (3-1), Cedarville (3-1) at Engadine (3-1), Mayville (3-1) at Kinde-North Huron (3-1).

Second Half’s weekly “Drive for Detroit” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Student Financial Services Bureau located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information, including various student financial assistance programs to help make college more affordable for Michigan students. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 savings programs (MET/MESP) and eight additional aid programs within its Student Scholarships and Grants division. Click for more information and connect with MI Student Aid on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid. 

PHOTO: Grand Blanc quarterback Tylor Leedom pitches to a teammate during the Bobcats’ Week 3 win over Flint Southwestern. (Photo by Terry Lyons.)