Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '16
October 24, 2016
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
There was a wheel and something that looked like a magic wand. Another started out looking like the head of a caterpillar.
A number of Michigan football teams realized their sky-high dreams with Sunday’s playoff selection announcement on Fox Sports Detroit.
But earlier that day, as is the case at the end of each fall, shaping this season’s tournament at times looked a little like finding pictures in the clouds.
Beginning last night and into this morning, MHSAA staff have been busily gathering game days and times for this weekend’s opening round. We’re assigning officials for those contests. Schools are preparing for what likely will be one of their biggest crowds of the season. And, of course, teams are preparing for what surely will be one of their most memorable games.
But before all of that could begin, we met Sunday morning with nine maps of Michigan and 272 dots that needed to be organized to set another playoffs in motion.
As we’ve done the past five seasons, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2016 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2016.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
This season, there were 218 automatic qualifiers by win total – only two more than the record low set a year ago – with the final 38 at-large qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. For the second consecutive season there were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams from Class A and 11 each from Class B and Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2016
First things, first: Congratulations to five first-time playoff qualifiers – Bloomfield Hills, Detroit Delta Prep, Southfield Arts & Technology, Southfield Bradford and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian. Bloomfield Hills (Lahser and Andover) and Southfield Arts & Technology (Southfield and Southfield-Lathrup) were created by mergers of previous schools. Southfield A&T and Detroit Delta Prep are eligible for tournament play this season for the first time. Bradford and Tri-unity Christian both started programs during the latter half of the 2000s; Tri-unity qualified in 8-player after moving back to that format from 11-player this fall. Of 617 varsity football programs that played games this season (including five not eligible for the playoffs as either a first-year program or with an enrollment too high for 8-player), all but 18 have made the playoffs at least once going back to the first series in 1975.
Tie it up: We had a few ties in a few ways this season. In two situations, we had multiple teams with the same enrollment at a line between divisions. In those cases, the teams with the higher playoff point averages go to the larger divisions – so Ferndale went to Division 2 and East Lansing to Division 3 to settle one tie, and Lansing Sexton went to Division 4 and Dowagiac to Division 5 to settle the other. The additional tie came in 8-player football, with Portland St. Patrick and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian both having the same playoff point average, the same opponents’ winning percentage and drawn into the same District. A coin flip was used to determine St. Patrick as the top seed and home team both this week and next if it advances and plays the Defenders.
Local really is the rule: Division 3 provided us with a fine example to help show that we work to draw maps locally and beginning with the earliest rounds. There were at least three ways to separate the schools in Region 3 District 1: East Lansing, DeWitt, Fowlerville and Mason. DeWitt, as the westernmost of the group, could’ve been drawn southwest with R2D2’s Vicksburg, Battle Creek Harper Creek and Coldwater, replacing Chelsea. Doing so would’ve literally split the state’s regions down the middle along U.S. 127, which is a favorable picture. But protocol is to favor local matchups at the earliest rounds, and it just didn’t make sense to take DeWitt away from three schools mere minutes away when subbing it in for Chelsea would’ve created a wash in terms of travel for the other three teams in R2D2.
Sometimes, there’s no choice: But keeping a group of four local teams together often is impossible. Remember, 32 dots usually are spread out at least all over the Lower Peninsula. In Division 4, we had Grand Rapids Catholic Central, Wyoming Godwin Heights, Wyoming Kelloggsville and Grand Rapids South Christian stacked nicely along U.S. 131 – but had to send southernmost South Christian down with Benton Harbor, Three Rivers and Hudsonville Unity Christian because there was no other grouping for Allendale, which is about 20 miles west of Grand Rapids. Another incident of splitting up near-neighbors happened in Division 2; we had Lowell and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central next door to each other, but no other Grand Rapids area teams qualify. By only a few miles, Forest Hills Central is south of Lowell – so although the Rangers had shorter drives than Lowell to possible opponents both north and south, they went into a group with Portage Northern, Portage Central and Battle Creek Lakeview, and Lowell went north to join Greenville, Traverse City West and Traverse City Central.
Why coast to coast: It wasn’t lost on the committee that teams waking up looking at Lake Huron traveling to play on Lake Michigan isn’t the greatest scenario. But it was the best of the options, and we stayed consistent by setting up a possible two District trips across the Lower Peninsula. Tawas will journey to Maple City Glen Lake in Division 6 this week. With wins this week, Lincoln Alcona could end up heading to Frankfort for a Division 8 District Final. Those trips aren’t ideal, but they did allow us to keep northern Lower Peninsula teams together – and in reality, aren’t too different than when teams from the Lower Peninsula and Upper Peninsula match up the first week, as will be the case in Division 4 (Whitehall to Escanaba), Division 5 (Kalkaska to Menominee and Grayling to Kingsford), Division 6 (Charlevoix to Negaunee and Boyne City to Calumet) and Division 8 (Gaylord St. Mary to Newberry).
It’s just the math: The one unexpected oddity of this week’s matchups is Canton going back to Northville for the second week in a row, and after beating Northville 42-27 last week. But math does rule, and Northville does have a higher playoff point average despite that Week 9 loss; the Mustangs beat five teams that finished with winning records, while Canton beat three – which of course is no fault of the Chiefs. It's just the way – rarely – things work out.
At the end of the day …
In six years of being part of these discussions, this weekend’s at least seemed to be the most extensive. We had two and three versions of multiple divisions before deciding which we believed to be the best.
Only one division map – 8-player – was an absolute slam dunk. The rest received plenty of scrutiny from a committee that now includes veterans going back to the beginning but also has had some new eyes join in over the last couple of years. That variety of viewpoints certainly pays off.
And wow, did we fall into some incredible first-week matchups:
• Rockford and Hudsonville in a rematch of the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red-deciding game of Week 9 (a Hudsonville 14-7 win).
• Traverse City West vs. Traverse City Central for the first time in playoff history (Central won 10-8 in Week 3).
• Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook Kingswood at Detroit Country Day in a homecoming for longtime Yellowjackets coach Joe D’Angelo.
• Constantine at Schoolcraft in a matchup of longtime southwestern rivals (Schoolcraft won 20-10 in Week 8).
• Cedarville at Engadine in arguably the most intriguing of three all-U.P. 8-player matchups (Engadine won 52-42 in Week 7).
Truly, at the end of November, the best teams will have to beat the rest to finish as champions – regardless of maps, matchups, weather and anything else that won’t really factor into what eventually is settled on the field.
For many high school sports fans, it’s the favorite time of year. Join us now as we prepare for kickoff.
The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.
PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 1 bracket mapped out on the Lower Peninsula. (Middle) The Division 3 map keeps four mid-Michigan teams together.
Drive for Detroit: Week 4 in Review
September 18, 2017
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Streaks were broken, upsets were hatched, and significant steps toward league titles were taken all over Michigan during a Week 4 full of the unexpected.
See below for the results that popped off the page in every region of our state and on the 8-player scene as changes of the guard began to take hold from Detroit to Muskegon to the Lake Huron coast and across the middle of the Upper Peninsula.
Drive for Detroit is powered by MI Student Aid.
Bay & Thumb
Saginaw Swan Valley 21, Freeland 14
Freeland had won 24 straight regular-season games since its loss to Swan Valley in Week 6 of 2014, and the Vikings (3-1) surely enjoyed this even a little more after also falling in the playoffs to the Falcons (3-1) last fall. Swan Valley got the go-ahead score in the fourth quarter and now sits tied with Alma atop the Tri-Valley Conference Central standings. Click for more from the Saginaw News.
Also noted:
Beaverton 33, Houghton Lake 25 – The Beavers (4-0) are now off to their best start since 1984 and with a key obstacle overcome in the Jack Pine Conference; Houghton Lake (2-2) was a playoff team last season.
Fenton 48, Linden 13 – Although not close for the first time in a few years, downing the rival Eagles (3-1) could eventually result in Fenton (4-0) winning its seventh straight Flint Metro League title.
Lake Fenton 20, Goodrich 7 – The reigning Genesee Area Conference Red champion Blue Devils (3-1) now have two contenders out of the way as Goodrich (3-1) has bounced back nicely from going 0-9 in 2016.
Marine City 35, Marysville 7 – The Mariners (4-0) equaled their win total from last year’s rare non-playoff season and should feel pretty comfortable in the Macomb Area Conference Gold with this win over the reigning champion Vikings (2-2) to go with an earlier one over 2016 runner-up Port Huron Northern.
Greater Detroit
West Bloomfield 37, Clarkston 16
After close losses to Walled Lake Western and Bloomfield Hills to open this season, West Bloomfield is hitting stride. The Lakers (2-2) got back into the Oakland Activities Association Red hunt by downing the reigning co-champion Wolves (3-1) as standout quarterback Bryce Veasley again posted massive passing numbers and the West Bloomfield defense improved by 26 points from last year’s meeting. Click for more from the Oakland Press.
Also noted:
Waterford Mott 47, Walled Lake Western 37 – Mott (3-1) quietly is working toward a fourth straight playoff season, but ending an 11-game regular-season winning streak for the reigning Division 2 runner-up Warriors (3-1) remained a headline-grabber nonetheless.
Utica Eisenhower 49, Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 42 – Winning the prestigious MAC Red is a multi-step process, and this was a significant one as Eisenhower (4-0) seeks to repeat as champion and Chippewa Valley (3-1) is always among contenders.
Ferndale 17, Detroit Country Day 7 – The Eagles (3-1) are building off last season’s first playoff berth since 2008 with a great start now highlighted with their best win in at least a decade; reigning Division 4 runner-up Country Day (1-3) has three defeats by 13 points or fewer.
Oak Park 34, Birmingham Groves 14 – After falling to Groves (3-1) by just a point last season, Oak Park (3-1) could be headed toward winning the OAA White this time after a victory over the reigning champ.
Mid-Michigan
Grand Ledge 27, Lansing Sexton 14
Grand Ledge remains the arguable favorite in the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue as it seeks a third straight league title. The Big Reds (3-1) remain in discussion of the Lansing area’s best teams, but Grand Ledge pushed its lead to 20 midway through the fourth quarter and now has three solid wins to go with a Week 2 loss to DeWitt. Undefeated Okemos is next up. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.
Also noted:
Beal City 16, Leroy Pine River 7 – The Aggies (3-1) are working toward taking back the Highland Conference title after avenging last year’s 34-7 loss to reigning league champion Pine River (0-4).
Fulton 26, Fowler 20 – This rivalry game frequently is followed by a rematch in the playoffs, and the Pirates (3-1) now have a much better chance of making it back for the first time 2014 after equaling their win total of each of the last two years while knocking Fowler down to 2-2.
Lake Odessa Lakewood 36, Vermontville Maple Valley 7 – Maple Valley’s 3-1 start and best season already since 2014 are still worth celebrating, but the Greater Lansing Activities Conference looks like it will come down again to reigning champion Lakewood (4-0) and Olivet.
Lansing Catholic 35, Williamston 34 – The Cougars (4-0) squeaked out this CAAC White win to give this week’s matchup with Portland major title implications; Williamston (2-2) is just outside after also losing to Portland by only seven in Week 3.
Northern Lower Peninsula
AuGres-Sims 48, Lincoln Alcona 46
AuGres-Sims’ offense caught up after losing to Alcona 58-20 a year ago, with this win putting the Wolverines at 4-0 for the first time since 2006. The Wolverines are averaging 46 points per game this season, 11 more than a year ago when they finished 7-3. Alcona (3-1) will need some help now to repeat as North Star League champion; the Tigers didn’t lose in the league last season. Click for more from the Alpena News.
Also noted:
Alpena 23, Cadillac 14 – The Wildcats (2-2) had only two wins a year ago, and now have two plus two close losses as they play for their first winning record since 2004; Cadillac (1-3) has a tough road ahead starting with undefeated Wyoming Godwin Heights next.
Elk Rapids 17, Kalkaska 0 – The Elks have gone from no wins in 2015 to two last season and now stand 3-1 this fall after bouncing back from a Week 3 loss to hand Kalkaska (3-1) its first.
Gaylord St. Mary 20, Whittemore-Prescott 12 – The Snowbirds (4-0) continued to prep for a strong league slate by handing a second straight defeat to annual playoff team W-P (2-2).
McBain 34, Evart 10 – McBain (3-1) bounced back from a Lake City loss in Week 3 to down another playoff hopeful in the Wildcats (2-2).
Southeast & Border
Brooklyn Columbia Central 46, Ida 38
While Columbia Central had put together a combined 15-5 record over the last two seasons, Ida has been the class of the Lenawee County Athletic Association of late with two straight league titles (last season shared) and only one loss in its last 15 league games before this defeat. The win was Columbia Central’s first ever against the Bluestreaks (3-1); the Golden Eagles (3-1) will now root for Ida to beat Hudson in Week 7, possibly their best chance at securing a shared league title after losing to the Tigers in Week 3. Click for more from the Jackson Citizen-Patriot.
Also noted:
Addison 32, Napoleon 30 – The Cascades Conference has taken all kinds of turns early; Napoleon (2-2) looked like the new favorite for a bit, but Addison (4-0) has stepped in tying its win total from 2016 and its most since 2010.
Parma Western 28, Coldwater 21 – The Panthers (3-1) impressively bounced back from a loss to Marshall in Week 3 to hand annual league contender Coldwater (3-1) its first defeat, potentially jumbling up a competitive Interstate Eight Athletic Conference race.
Morenci 26, Clinton 20 – The Bulldogs (2-2) ran their streak against Clinton (2-2) to two straight to pull to .500 after two losses by a combined three points to start the fall.
Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard 28, Detroit Loyola 15 – The Fighting Irish (4-0) have one more win than all of last season with their best start since 2010, and with this one may have eliminated the reigning Division 7 runner-up Bulldogs (0-4) from playoff consideration.
Southwest Corridor
Stevensville Lakeshore 14, St. Joseph 6
The “War by the Shore” went Lakeshore’s way for the fourth straight season as the Lancers put two touchdowns on the board during the first quarter and then clamped down on St. Joseph’s offense. Combined with a Week 3 win over Portage Central, Lakeshore (4-0) looks to have a good handle on the Southwest Michigan Athletic Conference West race – it’s looking to secure its first league title since 2014, with Portage Northern (1-3) and Niles (2-2) left to play. Click for more from the St. Joseph Herald-Palladium.
Also noted:
Benton Harbor 29, Berrien Springs 7 – Don’t give up on Benton Harbor (1-3); after opening with three losses, the Tigers began their must-win stretch by handing Berrien Springs (3-1) its first defeat.
Edwardsburg 28, Dowagiac 20 – The Chieftains (2-2) gave Edwardsburg (4-0) easily its toughest game so far this season as the Eddies added a 32nd straight Wolverine Conference win (since Dowagiac handed them their last league loss in 2012.)
Schoolcraft 24, Saugatuck 21 – Life after graduated star Blake Dunn has seen Saugatuck (2-2) lose its first and second regular-season games since 2014 but now look pretty good as a favorite heading into the Southwestern Athletic Conference Lakeshore schedule; Schoolcraft (3-1) is looking at a tougher path to three-peat in the Valley.
Portage Central 49, Traverse City Central 34 – After both lost to their league rivals in Week 3, Portage Central (3-1) enjoyed the most bounce-back although the Trojans (2-2) should benefit from playing such a strong nonleague foe.
Upper Peninsula
Gladstone 20, Ishpeming Westwood 12
The Braves are piling up memorable wins, and moving to 4-0 gave them their most victories in a season since also winning four in 2010. The switch from the Great Northern Conference to the Mid-Peninsula Conference certainly has made a difference for the small Class B school, but Gladstone also has dominated against a tough opening group – Westwood (3-1) also has been building what could be its best season this decade. Click for more from the Escanaba Daily Press.
Also noted:
Escanaba 45, Marquette 28 – The Eskymos (3-1) made it two straight over rival Marquette (1-3) and five wins in the last seven meetings of the biggest schools in the Upper Peninsula.
L'Anse 20, Hancock 18 – The Purple Hornets (3-1) bounced back from a Week 3 loss to Westwood to surpass last season’s win total and hand the Bulldogs (3-1) their first defeat.
Newberry 24, Munising 22 – The Mid-Eastern Conference is down to five teams, but five that could make the playoffs; Newberry (3-1) is the early leader, but Munising (2-2) could find its way into a shared league title.
Norway 21, Gwinn 6 – The Knights (4-0) also play in the Mid-Eastern Conference and have loaded up on impressive nonleague wins heading into their four conference games starting this week; Gwinn (2-2) has its work cut out as it looks to make the playoffs for a second straight season.
West Michigan
Whitehall 28, Muskegon Oakridge 14
Oakridge (3-1) has had quite a hold on the West Michigan Conference with three perfect runs through the league over the last five seasons and 37 wins over its last 39 league games. Whitehall (3-1) has made the playoffs three straight seasons but been just outside the league title mix thanks in large part to 17 straight losses to the Eagles. The Vikings can’t celebrate yet – but a win over similarly-powerful Montague this week would solidify their league title campaign. Click for more from the Local Sports Journal.
Also noted:
Comstock Park 49, Allendale 40 – The Panthers, 2-7 a year ago but 4-0 now, need only 43 more points to equal last season’s output and look like a contender in an Ottawa-Kent Conference Blue that has a number of annual playoff teams, with Allendale (1-3) now facing a must-win road to make it two straight appearances.
Coopersville 28, Sparta 21 – The Broncos (3-1) might hope to enter the O-K Blue mix already with two more wins than all of last year after handing Sparta (3-1) its first.
Muskegon 63, Byron Center 14 – The Big Reds (4-0) made it three wins over two seasons against Byron Center (3-1), a strong program in its own right with a combined 13-3 record since the start of 2016.
Grand Rapids Christian 33, Grand Rapids South Christian 12 – The Eagles (4-0) made it eight straight over what used to be an opening night nonleague rival before South Christian (3-1) joined the O-K Gold last season.
8-Player
Rapid River 26, Ontonagon 22
The way things are shaking out, this should eventually help decide the Western Eight Conference title. Rapid River (4-0) has a win over Crystal Falls Forest Park, and Ontonagon (3-1) has downed Powers North Central; Stephenson also is 4-0 and will see Rapid River in Week 7. By then the league should be more sorted out, and it seems likely the Rockets will be in the mix to lead it. Click for more from the Houghton Daily Mining Gazette.
Also noted:
Bay City All Saints 69, New Haven Merritt 26 – The move to 8-player this fall is suiting All Saints (3-1) as it equaled last season’s win total by downing a 2016 playoff team in Merritt (2-2).
Deckerville 20, Kingston 14 – The Eagles (4-0) haven’t had many close games over the last two seasons, but leave it to the rival Cardinals (2-2) to provide easily the toughest challenge this fall.
Onekama 36, Wyoming Tri-unity Christian 8 – The Portagers (4-0) also have adjusted seamlessly to a new format, with this win over the 2016 semifinalist Defenders (2-2) the latest of a dominating start.
Bellevue 28, Portland St. Patrick 6 – The Broncos (4-0) are yet another first-year 8-player team finding the going smooth as they handed St. Patrick (3-1) its first regular-season loss since 2015.
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PHOTO: Lansing Sexton and Grand Ledge linemen lock up during Friday's Comets victory. (Click for more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)