Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '16

October 24, 2016

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

There was a wheel and something that looked like a magic wand. Another started out looking like the head of a caterpillar.

A number of Michigan football teams realized their sky-high dreams with Sunday’s playoff selection announcement on Fox Sports Detroit. 

But earlier that day, as is the case at the end of each fall, shaping this season’s tournament at times looked a little like finding pictures in the clouds.

Beginning last night and into this morning, MHSAA staff have been busily gathering game days and times for this weekend’s opening round. We’re assigning officials for those contests. Schools are preparing for what likely will be one of their biggest crowds of the season. And, of course, teams are preparing for what surely will be one of their most memorable games.

But before all of that could begin, we met Sunday morning with nine maps of Michigan and 272 dots that needed to be organized to set another playoffs in motion.

As we’ve done the past five seasons, we’ll explain our most difficult decisions in this Mapnalysis 2016 breakdown of how we paired 272 teams that will play next month for championships across nine divisions. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2016.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions and a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. 

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

This season, there were 218 automatic qualifiers by win total – only two more than the record low set a year ago – with the final 38 at-large qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. For the second consecutive season there were only four Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those four we added 12 teams from Class A and 11 each from Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The same process is followed for organizing the 8-player bracket, with the difference that the 16 teams are selected purely on playoff-point average.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2016

First things, first: Congratulations to five first-time playoff qualifiers  Bloomfield Hills, Detroit Delta Prep, Southfield Arts & Technology, Southfield Bradford and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian. Bloomfield Hills (Lahser and Andover) and Southfield Arts & Technology (Southfield and Southfield-Lathrup) were created by mergers of previous schools. Southfield A&T and Detroit Delta Prep are eligible for tournament play this season for the first time. Bradford and Tri-unity Christian both started programs during the latter half of the 2000s; Tri-unity qualified in 8-player after moving back to that format from 11-player this fall. Of 617 varsity football programs that played games this season (including five not eligible for the playoffs as either a first-year program or with an enrollment too high for 8-player), all but 18 have made the playoffs at least once going back to the first series in 1975.

Tie it up: We had a few ties in a few ways this season. In two situations, we had multiple teams with the same enrollment at a line between divisions. In those cases, the teams with the higher playoff point averages go to the larger divisions – so Ferndale went to Division 2 and East Lansing to Division 3 to settle one tie, and Lansing Sexton went to Division 4 and Dowagiac to Division 5 to settle the other. The additional tie came in 8-player football, with Portland St. Patrick and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian both having the same playoff point average, the same opponents’ winning percentage and drawn into the same District. A coin flip was used to determine St. Patrick as the top seed and home team both this week and next if it advances and plays the Defenders.

Local really is the rule: Division 3 provided us with a fine example to help show that we work to draw maps locally and beginning with the earliest rounds. There were at least three ways to separate the schools in Region 3 District 1: East Lansing, DeWitt, Fowlerville and Mason. DeWitt, as the westernmost of the group, could’ve been drawn southwest with R2D2’s Vicksburg, Battle Creek Harper Creek and Coldwater, replacing Chelsea. Doing so would’ve literally split the state’s regions down the middle along U.S. 127, which is a favorable picture. But protocol is to favor local matchups at the earliest rounds, and it just didn’t make sense to take DeWitt away from three schools mere minutes away when subbing it in for Chelsea would’ve created a wash in terms of travel for the other three teams in R2D2.

Sometimes, there’s no choice: But keeping a group of four local teams together often is impossible. Remember, 32 dots usually are spread out at least all over the Lower Peninsula. In Division 4, we had Grand Rapids Catholic Central, Wyoming Godwin Heights, Wyoming Kelloggsville and Grand Rapids South Christian stacked nicely along U.S. 131 – but had to send southernmost South Christian down with Benton Harbor, Three Rivers and Hudsonville Unity Christian because there was no other grouping for Allendale, which is about 20 miles west of Grand Rapids. Another incident of splitting up near-neighbors happened in Division 2; we had Lowell and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central next door to each other, but no other Grand Rapids area teams qualify. By only a few miles, Forest Hills Central is south of Lowell – so although the Rangers had shorter drives than Lowell to possible opponents both north and south, they went into a group with Portage Northern, Portage Central and Battle Creek Lakeview, and Lowell went north to join Greenville, Traverse City West and Traverse City Central.

Why coast to coast: It wasn’t lost on the committee that teams waking up looking at Lake Huron traveling to play on Lake Michigan isn’t the greatest scenario. But it was the best of the options, and we stayed consistent by setting up a possible two District trips across the Lower Peninsula. Tawas will journey to Maple City Glen Lake in Division 6 this week. With wins this week, Lincoln Alcona could end up heading to Frankfort for a Division 8 District Final. Those trips aren’t ideal, but they did allow us to keep northern Lower Peninsula teams together – and in reality, aren’t too different than when teams from the Lower Peninsula and Upper Peninsula match up the first week, as will be the case in Division 4 (Whitehall to Escanaba), Division 5 (Kalkaska to Menominee and Grayling to Kingsford), Division 6 (Charlevoix to Negaunee and Boyne City to Calumet) and Division 8 (Gaylord St. Mary to Newberry).

It’s just the math: The one unexpected oddity of this week’s matchups is Canton going back to Northville for the second week in a row, and after beating Northville 42-27 last week. But math does rule, and Northville does have a higher playoff point average despite that Week 9 loss; the Mustangs beat five teams that finished with winning records, while Canton beat three – which of course is no fault of the Chiefs. It's just the way – rarely – things work out.

At the end of the day …

In six years of being part of these discussions, this weekend’s at least seemed to be the most extensive. We had two and three versions of multiple divisions before deciding which we believed to be the best.

Only one division map – 8-player – was an absolute slam dunk. The rest received plenty of scrutiny from a committee that now includes veterans going back to the beginning but also has had some new eyes join in over the last couple of years. That variety of viewpoints certainly pays off.

And wow, did we fall into some incredible first-week matchups:

• Rockford and Hudsonville in a rematch of the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red-deciding game of Week 9 (a Hudsonville 14-7 win).

• Traverse City West vs. Traverse City Central for the first time in playoff history (Central won 10-8 in Week 3).

• Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook Kingswood at Detroit Country Day in a homecoming for longtime Yellowjackets coach Joe D’Angelo.

• Constantine at Schoolcraft in a matchup of longtime southwestern rivals (Schoolcraft won 20-10 in Week 8).

• Cedarville at Engadine in arguably the most intriguing of three all-U.P. 8-player matchups (Engadine won 52-42 in Week 7).

Truly, at the end of November, the best teams will have to beat the rest to finish as champions – regardless of maps, matchups, weather and anything else that won’t really factor into what eventually is settled on the field.

For many high school sports fans, it’s the favorite time of year. Join us now as we prepare for kickoff.

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 1 bracket mapped out on the Lower Peninsula. (Middle) The Division 3 map keeps four mid-Michigan teams together.

Marine City Focused on Comeback Quest

By Paul Costanzo
Special for MHSAA.com

October 11, 2016

Ryan Alexander was in a familiar place this past Thursday.

The Marine City senior running back was at East China Stadium, the junior varsity team on the field in front of him playing against Warren Woods-Tower and a group of junior program football players behind him, preparing to get onto the big field and play at halftime.

He and his Mariners teammates were coming off a win against archrival St. Clair, and had just finished their last practice in preparation for a Week 7 game against Warren Woods-Tower, one they would also win.

All of that is familiar for Alexander and the Mariners. The start of the season, however, was far from it. 

“It was different than anything I’ve ever experienced,” Alexander said of Marine City’s first 0-4 start since 1971. “I’ve been on varsity for three years now, and to start 0-4, it was the first time I’ve ever felt anything like that since I’ve been in the program, since I’ve been in Marine City.

“It was a new feeling, but it was also a sense of motivation. It pushed me harder knowing that we had something to prove and that everyone was doubting us because we were 0-4. It’s hard to go through, but I think it made us a better team.”

Alexander and his teammates are on the road back, sitting at 3-4 and eyeing two more wins which could possibly preserve the school’s streak of qualifying for the postseason, which started in 1998. He said getting there would show those junior program players that by coming together as a team, you can accomplish anything.

The Mariners have already shown their coach plenty.

“I wondered, because our program has had so much success, what would happen if we had a bad start like this, how would that team be and how difficult would it be to coach,” Marine City coach Ron Glodich, who is in his fifth season as head coach after serving as a longtime assistant in the program. “What I found is these kids are incredible. Their perseverance and their work ethic has not changed. Nobody has quit, even though I challenge them week in and week out, nobody has quit. The bigger the challenge I give them, the bigger they step up.”

‘We live football’

Football in Marine City has a bit of a “Friday Night Lights” feel to it.

The town with a population of a little more than 4,000 essentially shuts down on game nights to support its team. Not long ago, it moved trick-or-treating because it conflicted with a Friday night playoff game. When the team went to Ford Field for MHSAA championship games in 2007, 2011 and 2013, it filled its entire side of the lower bowl with fans clad in orange and black.

“It’s a football crazy town,” Alexander said. “We live football.”

Kids grow up wanting to be Mariners as much as they grow up wanting to be Wolverines or Spartans, and you can’t even go to a JV game without seeing groups of them playing a side game of touch – or tackle – at East China Stadium.

“They were always winning, ever since I’ve been a kid and ever since my parents have been around,” senior lineman Andrew Steinmetz said. “It’s a great feeling to grow up here, live here and then play here.”

Always winning isn’t hyperbole, especially for someone Steinmetz’s age. The playoff streak is only scratching the surface of the Mariners’ success in the past few decades.

The program won MHSAA championships in 2007 and 2013, and – prior to this year – had lost more than two games in a season only three times since 1992.

From 2006 through 2009, Marine City had three undefeated regular seasons, and in the only exception, it went 13-1 with a Division 4 championship. The Mariners’ last losing season came in 1982.

There have been stars who went onto play Division I college football – Brendon Kay, a 2008 graduate went to Cincinnati and was the Most Valuable Player of the Belk Bowl, and Anthony Scarcelli, who was the Associated Press Division 3-4 Player of the Year in 2011 and is currently a senior on Central Michigan University’s football team – but most of Marine City’s success has come thanks to players who don’t have a recruiting site ranking.

“When you mention the name Marine City outside the area, it’s common for someone to say, ‘Oh, you’ve got a great football program,’” Glodich said. “And we’re proud of that. It’s been a long time since we built it, and a lot of people are proud of it in the area and they come out to support it. It’s nice that that’s linked to the town, and that people believe we have a great football program. And I believe we do.”

In Marine City, even 8-1 teams catch flack. At 0-4, the loud minority of the fan base gets more vocal.

“As any coach who doesn’t win, there are critics out there,” Glodich said. “I happened to get a letter and I shared it with the kids. I told them, ‘We’re all in this together. You’re being criticized in the stands, I’m being criticized, so understand that we’re all in this together and it’s all about getting better.’

“The good news is, I’m at the point in my career where I know that this staff does a great job. So when you get letters like that, you chuckle and say, ‘OK, this person is venting, but they don’t know what the hell they’re talking about.’ And I would tell that person if they ever had the guts to look me in the eye, I would tell them, ‘You don’t know what the hell you’re talking about.’”

Glodich’s players said they were able to shut out the outside noise, for the most part, and anything that did enter their brains was used as motivation. Alexander said it went in one ear and out the other, because practicing with a clear mind was much more necessary than reacting to insults.

Even better, however, was the fact there was much more support than derision. Marine City may be football crazy and unaccustomed to waking up on a Saturday after a loss, but its love for football goes beyond a stunning win-loss record.

“The parents and the past players, they really had our backs,” senior lineman Tom Kaminski said. “(Former player) Ethan Cleve made a nice Facebook message on the Marine City football fans page, and (former player) Jarrett Mathison was saying, ‘Don’t worry about it, it will get better.’”

Writing the final chapter

The message within the team was similar to Mathison’s, but the players knew they were the ones who would have to make things better. 

“A lot of it came from themselves,” Glodich said. “After that fourth loss, we challenged them and said you guys make a decision of how you want to move forward. That’s where your senior leadership and the guys that really care about the program, they kind of step forward and they rally the troops. We challenged them come Monday, and they responded to the challenge.”

The change could be seen in practice, and it translated into a 37-29 win against Madison Heights Madison in Week 5. That was followed by a 27-6 win against St. Clair in Week 6 and most recently a 49-31 win against Warren Woods-Tower in Week 7.

“We just had to put our heads down and keep fighting for it, because we knew we were better than what we were,” Kaminski said. “It’s big on your shoulders, because everyone’s used to 9-0 teams here, so that was a big wake-up call, but I think we’ve got it.”

As stated above, while this is a position Glodich never wanted to be in, he said he’s always wondered what would happen if a Marine City team had a start like this one. He’s wondered how the players would react. He’s wondered how difficult it would be to coach a team that no longer held its playoff destiny in its own hands before the midpoint of the season. 

“I’m amazed that these kids are working this hard – I don’t know if any other team that was 0-4 is working as hard as we do,” Glodich said. “It’s just a credit to these kids and their background; they’re not afraid to work. The kids that come to school here in this community are not afraid to work, and that’s why I’m one of the luckiest guys in the state to be able to coach in this community.”

The 0-4 start may have put the Mariners on the brink of playoff extinction, but their opponents in weeks 1-4 could wind up helping push them over the top when it comes to playoff selection, should Marine City get to 5-4. 

Algonac, Port Huron Northern, Detroit Loyola and Marysville were a combined 25-3 through seven weeks, with one of those losses a Northern defeat against Marysville. 

The Mariners are taking the one-game-at-a-time approach to the end of the season, but they know that can help. They know they can do something special to close it out, and accomplish something no Marine City team has done before – rebound from a start that could cause some to pack it in.

Glodich said he can’t look past the next game, but admits he and his coaches have talked to the players about writing the final chapter in their book, and how they want their story to end.

Alexander has already started writing in his head.

“It would mean the world (to finish 5-4) especially because it’s my senior year and I’d love to end on a high note,” he said. “I’d love to be the team that started 0-4, won the last five games and then proved what we have in the playoffs. We have a good team, we have a good shot.

“We just want to get to 5-4. We don’t really focus on anything else (in terms of playoff points). If we get there, it doesn’t matter, we’ll be happy.”

Paul Costanzo served as a sportswriter at The Port Huron Times Herald from 2006-15, including three years as lead sportswriter, and prior to that as sports editor at the Hillsdale Daily News from 2005-06. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Genesee, Lapeer, St. Clair, Sanilac, Huron, Tuscola, Saginaw, Bay, Arenac, Midland and Gladwin counties.

PHOTOS: (Top) Marine City's MJ Frank cuts through an opening against Marysville this season. (Middle) A group of Mariners surround and take down a Port Huron Northern ball carrier. (Photos courtesy of the Marine City football program.)