Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '17

October 22, 2017

By Geoff Kimmerly
Special for Second Half

We haven’t had Michigan high school football teams travel by boat to their playoff games, nor fly like the birds over places like Saginaw Bay and the northern stretch of Lake Michigan.

But phrases like “use the lake” and “follow the highway” dominated this year’s playoff mapping process, which once again saw members of the MHSAA staff and representatives of the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association draw into Districts and Regionals nearly 300 dots for our 10-division tournament that kicks off this weekend.

At the end of Saturday – around 9:48 p.m., to be nearly exact – there were 223 automatic qualifiers for the 256-team 11-player tournament, plus 32 for 8-player. By midnight, we had our entire playoff field more or less figured. Sunday at the MHSAA started before sunrise with double, triple and quadruple-checking, before a committee of 12 met to draw the tournament, go over all of each other’s work again, and then get everything ready to be presented online at MHSAA.com and broadcast across the state Sunday night on FOX Sports Detroit.

So much more than that goes into the football playoffs, of course. Athletic directors are scheduling games years in advance, and we start loading schedules into our system in late April. We monitor every game played every week by 614 Michigan varsity teams, plus this season 48 of our schools’ non-Michigan opponents located in five states and Ontario. Now we’re on to lining up everything that will come with the next five weeks of games including assigning officials, gathering potential Semifinal hosts and continuing our work with Northern Michigan University and Ford Field’s staffs to prepare for the 8 and 11-player Finals.

But we’re also the first to say that all of that is background noise to what we all look forward to most – five weeks of the best games our state has to offer again this fall.

As we’ve done the past six seasons, we’re explaining below our most difficult decisions in placing 288 playoff qualifiers in this Mapnalysis 2017 breakdown. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2017.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions plus a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. Go to this page on MHSAA.com to see the pairings in full.

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season. This fall, a second division of 8-player football was introduced, and we will celebrate 10 champions for the first time.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent 11-player playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors and coaches). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

As noted above, this season there were 223 automatic qualifiers for the 11-player field by win total with the final 33 at-large qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only five Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those five we added 10 teams from Class A and nine each from Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus this year two representatives from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by red dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The 8-player process is similar but changed this fall with the additional division. We take the top 32 teams in 8-player based on playoff point average as our field, then re-sort those 32 by enrollment – the 16 biggest make up Division 1, followed by the next 16 in Division 2. There are no automatic qualifiers by record for 8-player.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2017

Let’s start with Congratulations: First to Detroit Western and St. Louis, which qualified for the MHSAA Playoffs for the first time. Then to seven more headed back for the first time in a while: Athens (first berth since 2000), Bridgeport (1999), Flat Rock (1990), Hancock (2006), Royal Oak (2006), Salem (1991) and Vermontville Maple Valley (2005). A total of 21 programs added to totals of more than 25 playoff berths, led by Beal City now with 35, Crystal Falls Forest Park and Farmington Hills Harrison with 33, Mendon with 32, Traverse City St. Francis with 31 and Frankfort with 30. Rockford earned its 23rd straight playoff berth, tying the record set by Felch North Dickinson from 1991-2013, and Menominee earned its 22nd straight to tie Traverse City St. Francis (1990-2011) for third on the list. Of our current 614 football varsities, all but 16 have made the playoffs at least once.

Break the tie: We again had to break a tie as teams that will or could meet ended up with the same playoff point averages. Ties are broken by head-to-head competition first – if the teams played each other during the regular season – followed by opponents’ winning percentage as the second criteria and then a coin flip if those two won’t do it. Cedarville will host Rudyard in an 8-player Division 1 game this week although both teams finished with the same playoff point average – Cedarville broke the tie with its 46-28 win over the Bulldogs in Week 1, which is a good thing because their opponents had matching 38-43 records this fall. 

Many ways, no great way to slice it: The map in 11-player Division 2 was among our first tough challenges Sunday. Our most northern District seemed to make sense right away – keeping Traverse City West and Traverse City Central together with Midland and Midland Dow. From there, it’s not a pretty picture. We looked at three ways of splitting up the Detroit-area schools. We have five teams on the Grand Rapids/Muskegon/Kalamazoo side of the Lower Peninsula, but Lowell being eastern-most got sent to a District with three Flint-area schools. The 11-player Division 3 map provided a similar quandary – DeWitt, East Lansing and Haslett are packed nicely just north of Lansing, but an uneven seven schools on the western side of the Lower Peninsula meant DeWitt getting grouped with three closer to Grand Rapids with East Lansing and Haslett heading south to join Parma Western and Tecumseh. Bay City Central is the lone qualifier in this division from the Bay City/Saginaw/Midland area and also had to go somewhere – and in this case it made more sense to send it south along I-75 then across to Grand Rapids.

It’s a highway thing: In both Division 4 and Division 6 of 11-player, we have one Upper Peninsula school joining the rest from downstate. In Calumet’s case in Division 6, there are opponents in the northern Lower Peninsula to slot against, but Escanaba in Division 4 left us again relying on I-75. The trip from Escanaba to Flint Powers Catholic – the southernmost team in that four-team District – seems like a longer haul than sending Escanaba instead southwest to Whitehall. But a trip to Powers is estimated to be an hour shorter than from Escanaba to Whitehall, again because of the main highway.

Use the lake: At least three of our 11-player divisions – 1, 2 and 5 – have a District that rides close to the southeastern region of the Lower Peninsula up from Macomb County into Port Huron. While those thin Districts seem a little odd in shape, they make sense by normal traffic flow up from Lake St. Clair toward the Lake Huron coast. That helps explain why Port Huron Northern is with Roseville, Warren DeLaSalle and Ferndale instead of taking Lowell’s spot with Fenton, Flushing and Flint Carman-Ainsworth.

Worst map ever: At least in my seven years of being a part of the process. I’m speaking of the 11-player map in Division 8, which saw us with six Upper Peninsula schools, but then three Lower Peninsula schools grouped together just below Mackinac Bridge. One of these three had to go with another group, which is how we ended up with Frankfort joining Munising, Newberry and Gaylord St. Mary (Johannesburg-Lewiston and Hillman ended up with AuGres-Sims and Lincoln Alcona.). Then there are the pair of triangles in the southwest Lower Peninsula with Muskegon Catholic Central and Fulton-Middleton a good deal north of their District opponents, but with no other way to group those teams since the other six are all along I-94 or just south. It’s not pretty, but splitting MCC and Fulton up and sending them south was the best of the options we developed.

At the end of the day …

So here’s the fun part. We draw the maps without knowing who is where – and then we take a look at the matchups as they’re being prepared for TV and online.

It’s hard to pick out only a handful to mention at this time, but here’s one guess at a few that will create a buzz this week:

• In Division 1, Holland West Ottawa hosts Grandville after beating the Bulldogs 34-18 in Week 9 to earn an outright Ottawa-Kent Conference Red title; a Grandville win would’ve given championship shares to both and Rockford.

• Also in Division 1, Bloomfield Hills travels to West Bloomfield after beating the Lakers 28-24 in Week 2; West Bloomfield hasn’t lost again.

• In Division 3, Zeeland West and Zeeland East face off again after East downed West 28-8 on Friday to win the O-K Green championship.

• Also in Division 3, DeWitt hosts Grand Rapids Christian after rattling off eight straight wins – the Panthers’ only loss was to Christian 38-30 on opening night.

• Rivals Wyoming Kelloggsville and Godwin Heights meet in Division 4 after Kelloggsville beat Godwin by a point in Week 6 on the way to winning the O-K Silver title. Three Rivers and Vicksburg also will meet for the second straight week, this time in a Division 4 game; Vicksburg beat Three Rivers on Friday to deny the Wildcats a share of the Wolverine B Conference title. Harbor Beach claimed the Greater Thumb Conference East title by downing Ubly 26-14 in the league finale in Week 8, and they’ll meet again this week in Division 8.

• The best rivalry in 8-player last year was Powers North Central versus Crystal Falls Forest Park, and they’ll meet to start this postseason with the reigning champion Jets hitting the road looking to avenge a 66-58 loss to the Trojans in Week 2.

We know every game over the next five weeks will be memorable, at least for those on the field and the communities cheering them on. With our maps drawn, we look forward watching championship roads get blazed – and we’ll be waiting where they end at NMU and Ford Field.  

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 4 bracket mapped out on the Lower Peninsula shows how I-75 served as a guide for putting Escanaba in a District that includes Flint Powers Catholic.

Week 9 Football Playoff Listing

October 22, 2013

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Here is a list of Michigan High School Athletic Association football playing schools, displaying their win-loss records and playoff averages through the eighth week of the season. Schools on this list are in enrollment order. An asterisk (*) beside a record indicates that a team has eight or fewer games scheduled. A caret (^) beside a school’s name indicates that a team is one win away from playoff qualification.

Those schools with 11-player teams with six or more wins playing nine-game schedules, or five or more wins playing eight games or fewer, will qualify for the MHSAA Football Playoffs beginning Nov. 1-2. Schools with 5-4, 4-3 or 4-4 records may qualify if the number of potential qualifiers by win total does not reach the 256 mark. Schools with six or more wins playing nine-game schedules or five or more wins playing eight games or fewer may be subtracted from the field based on playoff average if the number of potential qualifiers exceeds the 256 mark.

Once the 256 qualifying schools are determined, they will be divided by enrollment groups into eight equal divisions of 32 schools, and then drawn into regions of eight teams each and districts of four teams each.

Those schools with 8-player teams will be ranked by playoff average at season’s end, and the top 16 programs will be drawn into regions of eight teams each for the playoff in that division, which also begins Nov. 1-2.

To review a list of all football playoff schools, individual school playoff point details and to report errors, visit the Football page of the MHSAA Website.

The announcement of the qualifiers and first-round pairings for both the 11 and 8-player playoffs will take place on Oct. 27 on the Selection Sunday Show at 7 p.m. on FOX Sports Detroit. The playoff qualifiers and pairings will be posted to the MHSAA Website following the Selection Sunday Show.
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11-Player Playoff Listing

1. Sterling Heights Stevenson, 2781, 4-4, 51.500                 
2. Utica Eisenhower, 2772, 4-4, 53.750                                    
3. Clarkston, 2737, 7-1, 95.500                                     
4. Macomb Dakota, 2693, 8-0, 108.000                                    
5. Howell ^, 2672, 5-3, 64.625                                      
6. Grand Blanc, 2624, 6-2, 81.625                                               
7. East Kentwood ^, 2612, 5-3, 66.750                                     
8. Rockford, 2572, 7-1, 92.750                                     
9. Clinton Township Chippewa Valley, 2506, 7-1, 95.875  
10. Lake Orion, 2490, 6-2, 78.375                                                
11. Dearborn Fordson ^, 2309, 5-3, 68.589                             
12. Holland West Ottawa ^, 2293, 5-3, 66.000                       
13. Northville, 2275, 7-1, 97.250                                 
14. Detroit Cass Tech, 2262, 8-0, 107.000                                                
15. Brighton ^, 2164, 5-3, 69.000                                                                
16. Monroe ^, 2145, 5-3, 62.500                                 
17. Detroit Catholic Central, 2132, 7-1, 94.161                      
18. Plymouth ^, 2126, 5-3, 61.625                                              
19. Canton, 2078, 7-1, 95.750                                       
20. Novi, 1986, 4-4, 52.375                                                            
21. Livonia Stevenson, 1983, 4-4, 49.000                                 
22. Macomb L'Anse Creuse North, 1965, 7-1, 89.500         
23. West Bloomfield ^, 1941, 5-3, 63.750                                                
24. New Baltimore Anchor Bay, 1899, 4-4, 48.875                               
25. Saline, 1897, 7-1, 94.275                                         
26. Westland John Glenn ^, 1880, 5-3, 61.375                      
27. Holt, 1866, 4-4, 53.250                                                             
28. Warren Mott, 1796, 8-0, 99.000                                           
29. Romeo, 1793, 4-4, 54.750                                                       
30. Oxford, 1782, 4-4, 51.625                                                       
31. Rochester Hills Stoney Creek, 1759, 6-2, 79.250           
32. Hudsonville ^, 1736, 5-3, 70.875                                          
33. Ann Arbor Skyline, 1715, 4-4, 49.250                                 
34. Grand Ledge, 1715, 4-4, 51.250                                           
35. Belleville ^, 1714, 5-3, 64.750                                                
36. Davison, 1692, 4-4, 44.250                                                     
37. Walled Lake Northern, 1688, 6-2, 80.125                         
38. Traverse City West ^, 1653, 5-3, 66.500                            
39. Rochester, 1615, 4-4, 52.125                                 
40. Waterford Kettering ^, 1604, 5-3, 66.125                        
41. Temperance Bedford, 1600, 8-0, 114.000                        
42. Grosse Pointe South ^, 1598, 5-3, 62.500                        
43. Rochester Adams ^, 1582, 5-3, 67.000                                              
44. Saginaw Heritage ^, 1575, 5-3, 60.250                               
45. Warren DeLaSalle ^, 1564, 5-3, 74.500                                              
46. Walled Lake Western, 1556, 8-0, 108.000                        
47. Flint Carman-Ainsworth, 1488, 7-1, 86.875                     
48. Detroit U-D Jesuit, 1476, 4-4, 55.500                                 
49. Midland, 1462, 7-1, 90.750                                     
50. Ypsilanti Lincoln, 1460, 7-1, 85.875                                      
51. Pinckney ^, 1452, 5-3, 65.625                                               
52. Traverse City Central ^, 1448, 5-3, 60.571                        
53. Oak Park ^, 1438, 5-3, 64.875                                                
54. Detroit Martin Luther King *, 1432, 7-0, 103.571          
55. Royal Oak, 1414, 4-4, 47.625                                 
56. Southgate Anderson, 1409, 4-4, 48.500                           
57. Ypsilanti Community, 1399, 4-4, 45.000                            
58. Port Huron ^, 1398, 5-3, 63.107                                           
59. Wyandotte Roosevelt, 1373, 8-0, 110.000                       
60. Portage Central, 1372, 8-0, 108.000                                   
61. Lansing Everett ^, 1369, 5-3, 58.625                                   
62. Portage Northern, 1364, 6-2, 74.625                 
63. Garden City, 1362, 4-4, 47.125                                             
64. Southfield, 1356, 7-1, 95.875                                                
65. North Farmington *, 1352, 5-3, 56.286                             
66. Caledonia ^, 1350, 5-3, 60.000                                              
67. Battle Creek Lakeview, 1348, 8-0, 90.000                        
68. Birmingham Seaholm, 1337, 8-0, 103.000                        
69. Birmingham Brother Rice, 1326, 8-0, 111.200                 
70. Grosse Pointe North ^, 1323, 5-3, 65.375                        
71. Muskegon Mona Shores, 1314, 6-2, 79.500                    
72. Midland Dow, 1304, 7-1, 85.036                                          
73. Farmington Hills Harrison, 1300, 7-1, 93.750                   
74. South Lyon, 1277, 6-2, 82.250                                               
75. Swartz Creek, 1277, 4-4, 52.768                                           
76. Birmingham Groves, 1274, 7-1, 85.875                             
77. Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills ^, 1231, 5-3, 52.500                              
78. Fenton, 1188, 8-0, 101.000                                                    
79. Grand Rapids Northview, 1182, 4-4, 49.750                    
80. Mattawan, 1176, 4-4, 45.625                                                
81. Warren Woods Tower, 1170, 6-2, 62.750                         
82. Muskegon Reeths-Puffer, 1151, 7-1, 92.500                  
83. Lowell, 1146, 8-0, 118.000                                                      
84. Taylor Truman, 1131, 6-2, 74.500                                        
85. East Lansing, 1124, 4-4, 52.750                                             
86. Holly, 1124, 4-4, 49.375                                                           
87. Muskegon, 1118, 7-1, 97.875                                                
88. Lapeer East, 1113, 4-4, 50.625                                              
89. Marquette *, 1110, 5-2, 73.286                                           
90. Detroit East English ^, 1109, 5-3, 59.750                           
91. Detroit Cody ^, 1106, 5-3, 57.250                                        
92. Allen Park, 1103, 6-2, 76.625                                 
93. Detroit Renaissance ^, 1097, 5-3, 53.268                         
94. Detroit Mumford, 1090, 6-2, 72.732                  
95. Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern, 1079, 6-2, 71.250               
96. St. Johns, 1079, 4-4, 47.625                                   
97. Zeeland East ^, 1071, 5-3, 67.125                                        
98. Lapeer West, 1063, 7-1, 91.375                                            
99. Redford Thurston ^, 1063, 5-3, 65.375                              
100. Auburn Hills Avondale, 1055, 4-4, 42.375                      
101. Byron Center, 1039, 6-2, 68.750                                        
102. Mt. Pleasant, 1033, 7-1, 92.875                                         
103. Riverview, 993, 6-2, 66.625                                 
104. St. Joseph, 986, 7-1, 88.875                                 
105. Orchard Lake St. Mary's, 980, 4-4, 54.625                      
106. Petoskey ^, 965, 5-3, 62.000           &a