Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '17

October 22, 2017

By Geoff Kimmerly
Special for Second Half

We haven’t had Michigan high school football teams travel by boat to their playoff games, nor fly like the birds over places like Saginaw Bay and the northern stretch of Lake Michigan.

But phrases like “use the lake” and “follow the highway” dominated this year’s playoff mapping process, which once again saw members of the MHSAA staff and representatives of the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association draw into Districts and Regionals nearly 300 dots for our 10-division tournament that kicks off this weekend.

At the end of Saturday – around 9:48 p.m., to be nearly exact – there were 223 automatic qualifiers for the 256-team 11-player tournament, plus 32 for 8-player. By midnight, we had our entire playoff field more or less figured. Sunday at the MHSAA started before sunrise with double, triple and quadruple-checking, before a committee of 12 met to draw the tournament, go over all of each other’s work again, and then get everything ready to be presented online at MHSAA.com and broadcast across the state Sunday night on FOX Sports Detroit.

So much more than that goes into the football playoffs, of course. Athletic directors are scheduling games years in advance, and we start loading schedules into our system in late April. We monitor every game played every week by 614 Michigan varsity teams, plus this season 48 of our schools’ non-Michigan opponents located in five states and Ontario. Now we’re on to lining up everything that will come with the next five weeks of games including assigning officials, gathering potential Semifinal hosts and continuing our work with Northern Michigan University and Ford Field’s staffs to prepare for the 8 and 11-player Finals.

But we’re also the first to say that all of that is background noise to what we all look forward to most – five weeks of the best games our state has to offer again this fall.

As we’ve done the past six seasons, we’re explaining below our most difficult decisions in placing 288 playoff qualifiers in this Mapnalysis 2017 breakdown. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2017.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions plus a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. Go to this page on MHSAA.com to see the pairings in full.

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total each season. This fall, a second division of 8-player football was introduced, and we will celebrate 10 champions for the first time.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent 11-player playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors and coaches). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

As noted above, this season there were 223 automatic qualifiers for the 11-player field by win total with the final 33 at-large qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only five Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so after those five we added 10 teams from Class A and nine each from Class B and Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus this year two representatives from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by red dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The 8-player process is similar but changed this fall with the additional division. We take the top 32 teams in 8-player based on playoff point average as our field, then re-sort those 32 by enrollment – the 16 biggest make up Division 1, followed by the next 16 in Division 2. There are no automatic qualifiers by record for 8-player.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2017

Let’s start with Congratulations: First to Detroit Western and St. Louis, which qualified for the MHSAA Playoffs for the first time. Then to seven more headed back for the first time in a while: Athens (first berth since 2000), Bridgeport (1999), Flat Rock (1990), Hancock (2006), Royal Oak (2006), Salem (1991) and Vermontville Maple Valley (2005). A total of 21 programs added to totals of more than 25 playoff berths, led by Beal City now with 35, Crystal Falls Forest Park and Farmington Hills Harrison with 33, Mendon with 32, Traverse City St. Francis with 31 and Frankfort with 30. Rockford earned its 23rd straight playoff berth, tying the record set by Felch North Dickinson from 1991-2013, and Menominee earned its 22nd straight to tie Traverse City St. Francis (1990-2011) for third on the list. Of our current 614 football varsities, all but 16 have made the playoffs at least once.

Break the tie: We again had to break a tie as teams that will or could meet ended up with the same playoff point averages. Ties are broken by head-to-head competition first – if the teams played each other during the regular season – followed by opponents’ winning percentage as the second criteria and then a coin flip if those two won’t do it. Cedarville will host Rudyard in an 8-player Division 1 game this week although both teams finished with the same playoff point average – Cedarville broke the tie with its 46-28 win over the Bulldogs in Week 1, which is a good thing because their opponents had matching 38-43 records this fall. 

Many ways, no great way to slice it: The map in 11-player Division 2 was among our first tough challenges Sunday. Our most northern District seemed to make sense right away – keeping Traverse City West and Traverse City Central together with Midland and Midland Dow. From there, it’s not a pretty picture. We looked at three ways of splitting up the Detroit-area schools. We have five teams on the Grand Rapids/Muskegon/Kalamazoo side of the Lower Peninsula, but Lowell being eastern-most got sent to a District with three Flint-area schools. The 11-player Division 3 map provided a similar quandary – DeWitt, East Lansing and Haslett are packed nicely just north of Lansing, but an uneven seven schools on the western side of the Lower Peninsula meant DeWitt getting grouped with three closer to Grand Rapids with East Lansing and Haslett heading south to join Parma Western and Tecumseh. Bay City Central is the lone qualifier in this division from the Bay City/Saginaw/Midland area and also had to go somewhere – and in this case it made more sense to send it south along I-75 then across to Grand Rapids.

It’s a highway thing: In both Division 4 and Division 6 of 11-player, we have one Upper Peninsula school joining the rest from downstate. In Calumet’s case in Division 6, there are opponents in the northern Lower Peninsula to slot against, but Escanaba in Division 4 left us again relying on I-75. The trip from Escanaba to Flint Powers Catholic – the southernmost team in that four-team District – seems like a longer haul than sending Escanaba instead southwest to Whitehall. But a trip to Powers is estimated to be an hour shorter than from Escanaba to Whitehall, again because of the main highway.

Use the lake: At least three of our 11-player divisions – 1, 2 and 5 – have a District that rides close to the southeastern region of the Lower Peninsula up from Macomb County into Port Huron. While those thin Districts seem a little odd in shape, they make sense by normal traffic flow up from Lake St. Clair toward the Lake Huron coast. That helps explain why Port Huron Northern is with Roseville, Warren DeLaSalle and Ferndale instead of taking Lowell’s spot with Fenton, Flushing and Flint Carman-Ainsworth.

Worst map ever: At least in my seven years of being a part of the process. I’m speaking of the 11-player map in Division 8, which saw us with six Upper Peninsula schools, but then three Lower Peninsula schools grouped together just below Mackinac Bridge. One of these three had to go with another group, which is how we ended up with Frankfort joining Munising, Newberry and Gaylord St. Mary (Johannesburg-Lewiston and Hillman ended up with AuGres-Sims and Lincoln Alcona.). Then there are the pair of triangles in the southwest Lower Peninsula with Muskegon Catholic Central and Fulton-Middleton a good deal north of their District opponents, but with no other way to group those teams since the other six are all along I-94 or just south. It’s not pretty, but splitting MCC and Fulton up and sending them south was the best of the options we developed.

At the end of the day …

So here’s the fun part. We draw the maps without knowing who is where – and then we take a look at the matchups as they’re being prepared for TV and online.

It’s hard to pick out only a handful to mention at this time, but here’s one guess at a few that will create a buzz this week:

• In Division 1, Holland West Ottawa hosts Grandville after beating the Bulldogs 34-18 in Week 9 to earn an outright Ottawa-Kent Conference Red title; a Grandville win would’ve given championship shares to both and Rockford.

• Also in Division 1, Bloomfield Hills travels to West Bloomfield after beating the Lakers 28-24 in Week 2; West Bloomfield hasn’t lost again.

• In Division 3, Zeeland West and Zeeland East face off again after East downed West 28-8 on Friday to win the O-K Green championship.

• Also in Division 3, DeWitt hosts Grand Rapids Christian after rattling off eight straight wins – the Panthers’ only loss was to Christian 38-30 on opening night.

• Rivals Wyoming Kelloggsville and Godwin Heights meet in Division 4 after Kelloggsville beat Godwin by a point in Week 6 on the way to winning the O-K Silver title. Three Rivers and Vicksburg also will meet for the second straight week, this time in a Division 4 game; Vicksburg beat Three Rivers on Friday to deny the Wildcats a share of the Wolverine B Conference title. Harbor Beach claimed the Greater Thumb Conference East title by downing Ubly 26-14 in the league finale in Week 8, and they’ll meet again this week in Division 8.

• The best rivalry in 8-player last year was Powers North Central versus Crystal Falls Forest Park, and they’ll meet to start this postseason with the reigning champion Jets hitting the road looking to avenge a 66-58 loss to the Trojans in Week 2.

We know every game over the next five weeks will be memorable, at least for those on the field and the communities cheering them on. With our maps drawn, we look forward watching championship roads get blazed – and we’ll be waiting where they end at NMU and Ford Field.  

The MHSAA Football Playoffs are sponsored by the Michigan National Guard.

PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 4 bracket mapped out on the Lower Peninsula shows how I-75 served as a guide for putting Escanaba in a District that includes Flint Powers Catholic.

Drive for Detroit: Week 2 in Review

September 6, 2016

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Three overtime thrillers. Two matchups pitting arguably the best programs from their respective areas. One of the most intriguing games in Michigan 8-player football history. 

If you missed following Week 2's results, you truly missed out – but we're here to help. 

Catch up below for many of the most telling results from another Labor Day weekend.

Bay & Thumb

Algonac 14, Almont 7

This is turning into quite the Blue Water Area Conference rivalry series, with Algonac extending its run to three straight over Almont (1-1) after losing to the Raiders 72-7 in 2014. Last season’s win helped the Muskrats to an eventual share of the league title; this one definitely gives them an upper hand again only a game into the BWAC schedule. Offense was at a premium once again, but Algonac (2-0) scored in the second and fourth quarters and has given up only nine points over its first two games. Click for more from the Port Huron Times Herald.

Also noted:

Beaverton 39, Harbor Beach 22 – The Beavers (2-0) are already one win shy of tying last season’s total after dealing the frequently-powerful Pirates (1-1) a first defeat this fall.

Port Huron Northern 27, Marine City 24 – The Huskies (1-1) are looking to get back to the playoffs for the first time since 2010, and beating Marine City (0-2) for the first time certainly will help.

St. Clair Shores South Lake 54, Madison Heights Madison 28 – South Lake (2-0) could be a clear favorite in the Macomb Area Conference Silver after avenging last season’s 56-42 title-deciding loss to the reigning champion Eagles (1-1).

Davison 49, Mount Pleasant 14 – Tariq Reid ran for 309 yards and scored five touchdowns as Davison moved to 2-0 and dropped the Oilers to 0-2.

Greater Detroit

Southfield Arts & Technology 24, Clarkston 18 (OT)

What a start/bounce back for the first-year Warriors. The school, formed by a merger of the former Southfield High and Southfield Lathrup, opened this season and its football history by falling to Detroit Martin Luther King 39-0 during opening weekend. So that made this rebound win over the always-tough Wolves (1-1) at least a little unexpected – and gave Southfield A&T an early edge in a strong Oakland Activities Association Red as well. Click for more from the Oakland Press.

Also noted:

Utica Eisenhower 26, Macomb Dakota 13 – Only the stunner by Southfield A&T could trump this massive win by Eisenhower (2-0), which ended a five-game losing streak to its MAC Red rival; Dakota (1-1) beat the Eagles twice last season, including in the District Final.

Walled Lake Western 33, Canton 30 – These two combined to go 22-4 in 2015, but Western (2-0) is off to the better start so far after dealing a heartbreaker to the Chiefs (0-2).

Allen Park 38, Wyandotte Roosevelt 0 – The Jaguars (2-0) have outscored their first two opponents by a combined 100-0 after avenging last season’s loss to the Bears (1-1).  

Detroit U-D Jesuit 20, Ann Arbor Pioneer 7 – The Cubs are 2-0 for the second straight season after bottling up a Pioneer team that went 7-4 a year ago.

Mid-Michigan

Grand Ledge 28, DeWitt 21

The game everyone in the Lansing area has waited years to see lived up to its billing, as the reigning Capital Area Activities Conference Blue champion Comets outlasted the annual powerhouse from the CAAC Red. Grand Ledge didn’t totally ground DeWitt’s high-powered offense, but did come up with necessary stops and multiple turnovers to improve to 1-1 with league play beginning this week. The Panthers, also 1-1, will move on to trying to extend their 38-game league winning streak that dates to 2008. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Also noted:

Haslett 9, Flushing 6 – The Vikings (1-1) made it three straight over Flushing (1-1); they’ve won by a combined eight points over those three recent meetings.

Pewamo-Westphalia 64, Dansville 0 – The Aggies (1-1) are likely still one of the best teams in the Central Michigan Athletic Conference, but the reigning Division 7 runner-up Pirates (2-0) are likely just this good.

Portland 40, Hillsdale 0 – The Raiders (2-0) are another Lansing-area team looking elite so far after dealing Hillsdale (1-1) its first shutout loss since 2011.

Fowlerville 38, Charlotte 25 – The Gladiators have had some tough seasons since last making the playoffs in 2010, but are 2-0 for the first time since 2009 after downing the Orioles (0-2). 

Northern Lower Peninsula

Charlevoix 22, Boyne City 14 (OT)

The Red Rayders (2-0) have come up with stunning wins from time to time over the last few years and are riding a streak of two straight winning seasons. But this still must qualify as the most stunning in recent memory – Charlevoix hadn’t scored on Boyne City over their last two meetings and hadn’t beaten the Ramblers since 2011. Boyne City (0-2), a Division 6 regional finalist last fall, isn’t far off its usual pace, however; the two losses this season are by only a combined 17 points. Click for more from the Petoskey News.

Also noted:

Manton 28, Johannesburg-Lewiston 24 – Aside from the Week 9 victory that gave the 2014 Rangers their only playoff appearance of the last two decades, beating the Cardinals (who were 43-12 over last five seasons) might be Manton’s best win since the early 1990s; both teams are now 1-1.

Alpena 33, Sault Ste. Marie 20 – The Wildcats (1-1) are looking for their first winning season since 2004, and getting past a 2015 playoff team like the Blue Devils (1-1) will help.

Traverse City St. Francis 21, Maple City Glen Lake 13 – This is the latest chapter in what’s become a strong rivalry, as St. Francis moved to 2-0 and Glen Lake to 1-1 with both likely contenders in their respective leagues.

Manistee 36, Hopkins 30 – The Chippewas (1-1) have improved yearly over the last three and bounced back from an opening-night loss by beating a Hopkins team (1-1) trying to rebound from its first sub-.500 season since 2006. 

Southeast & Border

Concord 28, Homer 26 (OT)

Tune back in later this week for a feature on Concord, which struggled through back-to-back 1-8 seasons in 2013 and 2014 before making a huge jump to 7-3 last year. The Yellowjackets (2-0) hadn’t beaten Homer since 2009 and fell 32-30 last season as the Trojans went on to win the Big 8 Conference title. Click for more from the Jackson Citizen-Patriot.

Also noted:

East Jackson 30, Vandercook Lake 28 – The Trojans (1-1) have three wins total over their last four seasons, but got a huge one against a Jayhawks team (0-2) that finished 8-2 a year ago.

Hudson 8. Morenci 6 – The momentum in this rivalry swung back to the Tigers (2-0), who had lost two straight to Morenci (1-1) and have given up only 14 points total over two games this fall.

New Boston Huron 21, Carleton Airport 14 – The Chiefs (2-0) opened Huron League play with a second win by seven points or fewer, but also fourth straight over Airport (1-1)

Temperance Bedford 51, Fenton 28 – Last season’s 0-4 start is a distant memory for the Mules (2-0), who got past a Fenton team (0-2) coming off its eighth straight playoff appearance. 

Southwest Corridor

Marshall 17, Coldwater 7

The Redhawks (1-1) came back from an opening-night loss to Benton Harbor to avenge last season’s 9-7 defeat to Coldwater (1-1) that ended up deciding the Interstate 8 Athletic Conference title. In doing so, Marshall also ended the Cardinals’ 13-game regular-season winning streak; the latter’s only loss last fall came in a Division 3 Semifinal. Click for more from the Battle Creek Enquirer

Also noted:

Benton Harbor 28, Grand Rapids South Christian 21 – The Tigers (2-0) continued to show last season’s success wasn’t just a one-and-done by sending the Sailors to 1-1.  

Paw Paw 22, Plainwell 9 – The Redskins (2-0) are off to their seventh straight 2-0 start despite missing the postseason a year ago; Plainwell (1-1) rebounded off last season’s Paw Paw loss to still make the playoffs and will look to do so again.  

Schoolcraft 51, Watervliet 30 – This wasn’t as close as Schoolcraft’s one-point win last season, but similarly impressive as the Eagles moved to 2-0 by outscoring the offensively-talented Panthers (1-1).

Cassopolis 33, Mendon 14 – The Rangers (2-0) extended their winning streak over the annually-powerful Hornets (1-1) to two straight to open Berrien-Cass-St. Joseph Red play. 

Upper Peninsula

Negaunee 14, Calumet 6

The Miners (2-0) sent back at least some of the disappointment left over from falling to Calumet in last season’s Division 6 playoff opener. Negaunee held the Copper Kings to 18 fewer points than in the playoff loss while riding two running backs who both gained more than 100 yards on the ground, and has now beaten Calumet (1-1) in five straight regular-season meetings. Click for more from the Houghton Daily Mining Gazette.

Also noted:

Bark River-Harris 52, Bessemer Gogebic 24 – This could end up a key win in the wide-open but tough Mid-Eastern Conference race; Bark-River Harris (2-0) is the reigning co-champion, but the Miners (1-1) are among additions from the old Great Western Conference.

Newberry 50, Munising 14 – The Indians (2-0) also beat Munising last season before tying with the Mustangs (0-2) for third in the Mid-Eastern standings; Newberry looks like a favorite this time.  

Norway 41, Felch North Dickinson 14 – The Knights (2-0) have equaled last fall’s win total as they seek a first winning season since 2010; North Dickinson is 1-1 and sees Munising next.

Lake Linden-Hubbell 38, L’Anse 14 – The Lakes (2-0) are another Mid-Eastern transplant from the old Great Western Conference, and they continued to gear up by beating a Hornets team (0-2) with three winning seasons over its last four.  

West Michigan

Lowell 21, Rockford 10

These Grand Rapids-area powers hadn’t faced each other since 2012, but Lowell (2-0) now owns wins in all three of their recent meetings. The Red Arrows came back this time from a three-point halftime deficit, which was especially impressive against a Rockford team chomping for a win after having to forfeit in Week 1 because an illness overtook a number of players. Lowell is a major favorite in the Ottawa-Kent Conference White but first must face rival East Grand Rapids this week, while Rockford (0-2) gets Mona Shores before a challenging O-K Red schedule begins. Click for more from the Grand Rapids Press.

Also noted: 

Holland Christian 32, Ada Forest Hills Eastern 28 – The Maroons (1-1) got a nice boost as they seek their first winning season since 2009, handing a first regular-season loss since 2014 to reigning Division 4 semifinalist Forest Hills Eastern (1-1)

Muskegon Catholic Central 21, St. Ignace 6 – The Crusaders (2-0) are in midseason form defensively, giving up a combined 12 points over the last two weeks to opponents that averaged nearly 37 in 2015, including a Saints team (1-1) that put up 44 on opening night.

Zeeland West 32, Muskegon Mona Shores 28 – The first two wins have been close for the Dux (2-0, by a combined nine points, but extended a regular-season winning streak going back to Week 3 in 2013; this one ended a Mona Shores regular-season streak that had started in Week 3 of 2014.

Wyoming 38, Comstock Park 7 – The Wolves are 2-0 after going a combined 4-23 over the last three seasons and beat a Comstock Park team (1-1) coming off its sixth straight playoff berth. 

8-Player

Powers North Central 60, Crystal Falls Forest Park 42

Reigning MHSAA champion North Central (2-0) earned the first of what could be multiple rounds this season with new 8-player force Forest Park, putting up 30 points during the third quarter to move to 15-0 since making the switch from 11-player. The Jets have scored 60 points in both of their games this season, but the Trojans (!-1) became only the second team over the last two seasons to come within 40 points of North Central, and the first to come within 20. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.

Also noted:

Cedarville 45, Posen 0 – These Trojans (2-0) split a pair of two-point games last season against Posen (1-1), but left no doubts this time.

Engadine 34, Onaway 12 – The Eagles have had a nice run in 8-player with five straight playoff appearances, and now are 2-0 for the first time since 2012 after handing Onaway (1-1) a first loss.

Lawrence 30, Morrice 18 – No team held Morrice (1-1) under 20 points last season, but the Tigers (2-0) have become known for defense while playing in this high-scoring format.

PHOTO: Okemos defenders stop an Ann Arbor Skyline ball carrier during the Chiefs' 30-6 win Thursday. (Photo by John Johnson.)