Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '18

October 21, 2018

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

For a fading moment, we thought we saw the Big Dipper floating through the second floor of the MHSAA office Sunday morning.

Michigan’s northernmost high school in Calumet held the handle – but the only place the rest of the Region pointed was to questions about how we could come up with such a disjointed scenario for this season’s Division 6 Playoffs.

Below – as has become an annual tradition – we’ll answer that question and a few more about this year’s selection process.

Our mission Sunday was to map 213 automatic qualifiers for 11-player football – and a record 43 additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 records – plus our top 32 8-player teams across 10 divisions of playoffs that will conclude with the latter Nov. 17 at Northern Michigan University and 11-player Nov. 23-24 at Ford Field.

As often noted in the past, this process didn’t start Sunday morning – but months and in some cases more than a year ago when athletic directors began scheduling games for this fall. We make sure all are loaded into our system by early summer, and then follow every score/cancellation/forfeit/additional change through Week 9’s final games – including this season those for 46 teams from other states or Ontario that played Michigan schools and needed to be followed as well because their successes affected MHSAA teams’ strengths of schedule.

Now that the maps are drawn, we line up all that will come with the next five weeks of games including assigning officials, gathering potential Semifinal sites and continuing our work with our Finals hosts to create memorable experiences as teams play for championships.

So we’re off. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2018.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions plus a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. Go to this page on MHSAA.com to see the pairings in full.

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, and in 2017 a second division of 8-player football was introduced.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent 11-player playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors and coaches). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

As noted above, this season there were 213 automatic qualifiers for the 11-player field by win total with the final 43 additional qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only five Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so with those five we added 13 teams from Class A and B and 12 from Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by red dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The 8-player process is different for team selection and similar for designation of Regionals. We take the top 32 teams in 8-player based on playoff point average as our field, then re-sort those 32 by enrollment – the 16 biggest make up Division 1, followed by the next 16 in Division 2. There are no automatic qualifiers by record for 8-player.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 (or in 8-player, 16) dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2018

We always start with CONGRATULATIONS: And this season they go first to Detroit Community, Detroit Public Safety Academy and Dexter, which made the MHSAA Football Playoffs for the first time. Of 611 football varsities across the state, all but 12 have made the playoffs at least once. Rockford missed out on an automatic bid with a Week 9 loss, but received an additional qualifier berth to set the record by making the MHSAA Playoffs for the 24th straight season. Crystal Falls Forest Park (22 seasons), Stevensville Lakeshore (21), Macomb Dakota (18), Climax-Scotts (16) and Grand Rapids West Catholic (16) also extended their stays on the list for longest MHSAA playoff streaks.

Break the tie: We again had to break a tie (actually two for District rounds) as teams that will or could meet ended up with the same playoff point averages. Ties are broken by head-to-head competition first – if the teams played each other during the regular season – followed by opponents’ winning percentage as the second criteria and then a coin flip if those two won’t do it. Our tie-breaks this season both took place in Division 4 – Grand Rapids South Christian received a home game against Wyoming Godwin Heights this week and St. Clair will host North Branch if they meet in a District Final. There are more possible meetings of teams with same averages in later rounds, and those ties will be broken the same way.

What is up with Division 6: Last year I had a “worst map ever,” and two of them this year would be in contention. Division 6 is the first – but the explanation for how we came up with what we did is simple. Region 1 is made up of two Districts with six schools from the northern Lower Peninsula and two from the Upper Peninsula. So however the Districts were sliced, two Lower Peninsula schools had to go with the U.P. And we settled this one strictly by comparing highway mileages of those Lower Peninsula teams to Mackinac Bridge (again, the only way to travel between the peninsulas). In the end, we placed Elk Rapids (93 miles) and Traverse City St. Francis (124) with Escanaba and Ishpeming Westwood because they are closest to the Bridge – followed by Kingsley (126), Maple City Glen Lake (144), Beaverton (161) and Tawas (168). The optics are strange – it may look like Glen Lake is driving past Elk Rapids and St. Francis on the way to Beaverton this week and potentially Tawas next. But Glen Lake’s route still travels south of those two schools this week (and depending on its chosen route on the way to Tawas as well), making everything fit – strangely looking, but nonetheless.

Lake Huron tour: You could see most of the American side by checking out this week’s Region 2 games in 8-player Division 2. This map also looks odd – there’s a bridge crossing and a drive around Saginaw Bay. Yet, after drawing this at least two more ways, we settled here – although Region 2 looks a little odd, all four teams are east of I-75 and north of Bay City.

Get your zoom on: We don’t enjoy splitting up teams that live next door to each other, but sometimes it’s a must. In Division 7 we were able to keep all eight Detroit-area and southeastern schools in Region 4, but the distance between its Districts came down to a few miles along I-96. In Division 2, we had to factor in outliers Port Huron Northern and Temperance Bedford – and the resulting Districts ended up splitting Livonia Churchill and Livonia Franklin.

At the end of the day …

I include this every year, but we draw the maps not knowing which schools are represented by the dots. At one point Sunday morning, I was wrong about which division we were considering at the time – and that’s a good thing. For the map drawing portion, it doesn’t matter.

But now that we know who is going where, here’s a glance at some stories that might emerge this week:

• We’ve got rivalries, like Portage Northern at Portage Central and Birmingham Groves at Birmingham Seaholm in Division 2, St. Johns at DeWitt and Haslett at East Lansing in Division 3, Constantine at Schoolcraft in Division 6 and Waterford Our Lady at Clarkston Everest Collegiate in Division 8 – plus Kingston at Deckerville in 8-player Division 1. There are many more we could mention – and some potential feuds renewed in two weeks as well depending on who wins this round.

• The Macomb Area Red, generally considered one of the strongest leagues annually in the state, sent four of six teams to the Division 1 playoffs – and they’re all in the same District. Champion Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (9-0) takes on Utica Eisenhower this week, and with a win would face either Macomb Dakota or Romeo after defeating both by just seven points during the regular season.

• Perhaps the most intriguing opener statewide is River Rouge (8-1) at Detroit Martin Luther King (7-2) in Division 3. Neither gets tested much during their league seasons, but both played tough nonleague opponents and the winner will be considered a favorite to make it to Ford Field.

• Farmington Hills Harrison holds the records for most MHSAA Finals appearances (18) and titles (13) and will play its final playoffs in Division 4 after finishing Division 3 runner-up a year ago. The school is closing next spring. Coach John Herrington is the winningest in state history with 441 wins and counting against only 111 losses (and a tie).

• There are a few annual powers not in the bracket this season – most notably Lowell, Muskegon Catholic Central and Menominee – and others like Rockford, Mendon and Grand Rapids West Catholic got in as additional qualifiers. West Catholic has won five straight Division 5 championships and opens at Hudsonville Unity Christian. The Falcons won the 2013 title after also entering as a 5-4 team.

• There are 34 teams entering the playoffs unbeaten, but only four Districts have multiple – Manistee and Reed City share one in Division 5, Traverse City St. Francis and Calumet in Division 6, Reading and Ottawa Lake Whiteford in Division 8, and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian and Morrice in 8-player Division 1. All of those potential matchups would happen in 11-Player District or 8-Player Regional Finals.

• This will be the eighth year of the 8-player tournament, and in Division 1 only Deckerville in 2012 has won an MHSAA championship in this format. In Division 2, reigning champion Crystal Falls Forest Park opens with 2015-16 back-to-back champion Powers North Central.

• In 8-player, three teams with 5-4 records didn’t make the field of 32, and two teams with 4-5 records advanced. This is the reality of measuring by playoff point average. Fife Lake Forest Area and Webberville are the 4-5 teams, and their opponents this season won more than 61 percent of their games. The three teams at 5-4 and one at 4-4 had opponents’ winning percentages between 38-56 percent.

Every school and every community can tell a story of making these playoffs, and over the next five weeks the fortunate will continue to write chapters filled with moments that will never be forgotten. We’re looking forward to watching them all unfold.

PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 6 map shows an odd-looking scenario with two Traverse City-area teams in the same District as two from the Upper Peninsula. (Middle) The 8-player Division 2 map shows how schools are connected to a District along the Lake Huron shoreline.

1st & Goal: 2021 Week 6 Preview

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

October 1, 2021

The first round of football trophy time has arrived in Michigan. 

MI Student AidTwo weeks ago, Britton Deerfield became the first varsity in the state to claim a share of a league title – enjoying that moment a little earlier than usual because of how its schedule lined up.

But two weeks later, league championship are set to be decided all over, with six of our nine featured matchups below potentially finishing with a league champion and many more games this weekend setting a similar stage for the next week or two.

MHSAA.tv will carry more than 150 games live this weekend, with Bally Sports Detroit broadcasting Friday's Lowell/East Grand Rapids rivalry game on its PLUS cable channel and State Champs! Sports Network streaming Saturday's Warren Fitzgerald/Madison Heights Madison matchup. See the full schedule from the MHSAA Score Center. (Games below are Friday unless noted.)

Bay & Thumb

Reese (5-0) at Bad Axe (5-0)

Three teams remain undefeated in Greater Thumb Conference West play – these two plus Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker – with tonight and the next two weeks potentially necessary to completely wrap up this conference race, although the winner tonight will be much closer to being there at the end. The Hatchets shared the title last year and have won four straight against the Rockets including 17-7 a year ago. After downing GTC East contender Harbor Beach 42-33 on opening night, Bad Axe has given up only 20 points over the last four games – but that defensive unit is sure to be challenged by a Reese offense averaging 41 points per contest.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Croswell-Lexington (4-1) at Almont (3-2), Flint Hamady (3-2) at Burton Bendle (4-1), Ortonville Brandon (5-0) at Goodrich (4-1), Midland (2-3) at Bay City Western (4-1).

Greater Detroit

Clarkston (5-0) at West Bloomfield (4-1)

A share of the Oakland Activities Association Red title is on the line, with Clarkston the reigning league champion. These two have traded regular-season wins since 2014, with the only break from that pattern Clarkston’s still semi-unimaginable 3-2 Division 1 championship game victory in 2017. The Lakers took last season’s meeting 24-21, and quickly got back on track this fall after being doubled up by Rochester Adams in the season opener to move into the No. 16 spot in Division 1 playoff points this week. Clarkston sits at No. 5 coming off a second three-point victory this season and with this matchup looking like the Wolves’ toughest before the playoffs begin.  

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Sterling Heights Stevenson (4-1) at Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (4-1), Detroit Central (5-0) at Detroit Osborn (4-1), Detroit Catholic Central (4-1) at Warren De La Salle Collegiate (4-0), Milan (4-1) at Riverview (5-0).

Mid-Michigan

Portland (5-0) at Lansing Catholic (5-0)

The winner will earn a share of the Capital Area Activities Conference White title, and these two have decided it the last six seasons. Lansing Catholic’s best moment this fall came Week 2 over Williamston, which plays this week in a game that could decide the CAAC Red title, while Portland opened this fall with wins over two teams that could end up league champions in Ovid-Elsie and DeWitt. Portland is riding a 33-game league winning streak stretching back to 2014 – but that doesn’t include a 2-2 playoff record against the Cougars during that time. They are guaranteed to not see each other again this time unless in passing at Ford Field – Portland is in Division 5 and ranked No. 2, while Lansing Catholic has the most playoff points in Division 6.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Comstock Park (5-0) at Belding (4-1), Williamston (3-2) at Haslett (4-1), Pewamo-Westphalia (5-0) at Olivet (4-1), New Lothrop (3-2) at Ovid-Elsie (4-1).

Northern Lower Peninsula

Cadillac (4-1) at Traverse City Central (4-1)

This could begin wrapping up the final Big North Conference championship as we currently know the league, with Central in position to earn a share of the title with a win before leaving with Traverse City West for the Saginaw Valley League next season. Cadillac’s lone loss this fall was to West in Week 3, but a Vikings win tonight would create a three-way tie atop the standings with one conference game to play. Even with that loss to West, Cadillac is giving up only 10.6 points per game, riding the strength that helped the Vikings to last season’s Division 4 Final. But similarly, Central despite an opening loss to DeWitt is averaging 48.2 points per game.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Charlevoix (4-1) at East Jordan (4-1), Sault Ste. Marie (4-1) at Grayling (3-2), Traverse City West (4-1) at Petoskey (3-2), Cheboygan (2-3) at Kingsley (5-0).

Southeast & Border

Jonesville (5-0) at Reading (4-1)

Somewhat quietly amid Reading’s attention-grabbing Division 8 state dominance of the last few seasons, Jonesville also has become a force in the Big 8 Conference with 14 wins over its last 15 league games including a 4-0 title run in 2020. A victory tonight would clinch a share of a repeat championship, and the Comets have outscored their first five opponents this fall by an average score of 47-7 while tying for No. 8 in Division 6. The Rangers finished second in the Big 8 a year ago, falling to Jonesville 44-18 in the title decider, and they’re facing a must-win to hope for a share this time after a 26-20 defeat against Union City two weeks ago.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Dexter (4-1) at Ann Arbor Huron (4-1), Temperance Bedford (4-1) at Monroe (3-2), Petersburg Summerfield (4-1) at Sand Creek (3-2), Blissfield (2-3) at Clinton (3-2).

Southwest Corridor

Centreville (4-1) at Cassopolis (4-1)

A share of the Southwest 10 Conference title goes to the winner, and Centreville is attempting to repeat after ending Cassopolis’ two-year title reign in 2020. The Bulldogs showed with last week’s win over previously-undefeated White Pigeon that any assumptions of their demise after an opening night loss to Niles Brandywine were premature. Cassopolis’ lone loss also was to Brandywine, in Week 2, and minus those defeats both teams are giving up less than eight points per game. It’s very possible as well this will be just chapter one this season – Centreville is tied for No. 16 and Cassopolis is No. 13 in Division 8 (and White Pigeon is tied for No. 8).

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Watervliet (4-1) at Constantine (5-0), Paw Paw (4-1) at Edwardsburg (5-0), St. Joseph (5-0) at Portage Central (3-2), River Rouge (3-2) at Portage Northern (2-3).

Upper Peninsula

Clare (4-1) at Marquette (4-1)

There are some important league matchups in the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference especially that will take precedence for most this week, and for logical reasons. But from a statewide point of view, Marquette’s tough downstate matchups are always intriguing – and this one starts a four-game run that will include a possible league-title decider next week against Menominee and then two Big North meetings against Traverse City West and Petoskey. Clare is tied for first in the Jack Pine Conference, and similarly will welcome Gladwin next in what could be a matchup of that league’s leaders. This should be a fine tune-up and more as both prepare for those high-stakes Week 7 games.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Iron Mountain (3-2) at Calumet (3-2), Ishpeming Westwood (4-1) at Hancock (3-2), Negaunee (4-1) at L'Anse (3-2), Escanaba (1-4) at Menominee (3-2).

West Michigan

Hudsonville Unity Christian (5-0) at Spring Lake (5-0)

Four teams in the Ottawa-Kent Conference Blue are 3-0 in league play, and the other four 0-3, but this week will at least help sort out the leaders a bit with Grand Rapids West Catholic and Coopersville meeting as well. What makes this matchup just a slice more intriguing is Unity Christian is the reigning league champion and plays all three of these teams over the next three weeks – plus is ranked No. 4 in Division 4 with Spring Lake at No. 5. The Lakers also need just one more win to guarantee their best record since 2014.   

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Grand Rapids West Catholic (5-0) at Coopersville (5-0), Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (4-1) at Grand Rapids Christian (3-2), Muskegon Catholic Central (4-1) at Muskegon Heights Academy (4-1), Central Montcalm (4-1) at Reed City (4-1).

8-Player

Portland St. Patrick (5-0) at Vestaburg (5-0), Saturday

With its first 5-0 start since 2006, Vestaburg has put itself in position for its best finish in more than a decade regardless of what happens against the Shamrocks. But the potential is there for much more. Those two are tied atop the first-year Central Michigan 8-Man Football Conference, with the winner of this matchup guaranteed a share of the league title. Vestaburg has reached 60 points three times in four games played (one win was a forfeit). Reigning Division 2 runner-up St. Patrick will match with a defense giving up 19 points per game, especially impressive in the high-flying 8-player format.

Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Gaylord St. Mary (4-1) at Pellston (5-0), Climax-Scotts (4-1) at Adrian Lenawee Christian (5-0), Rudyard (4-1) at Munising (3-2), Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart (3-2) at Peck (5-0).

Second Half’s weekly “1st & Goal” previews and reviews are powered by MI Student Aid, a part of the Office of Postsecondary Financial Planning located within the Michigan Department of Treasury. MI Student Aid encourages students to pursue postsecondary education by providing access to student financial resources and information. MI Student Aid administers the state’s 529 college savings programs (MET/MESP), as well as scholarship and grant programs that help make college Accessible, Affordable and Attainable for you. Connect with MI Student Aid at www.michigan.gov/mistudentaid and find more information on Facebook and Twitter @mistudentaid.

PHOTO Muskegon Catholic Central, here Week 1 against North Muskegon, takes on Muskegon Heights Academy this weekend with a chance to clinch a share of the Lakes 8 Activities Conference title. (Photo by Tim Reilly.)