Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '18

October 21, 2018

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

For a fading moment, we thought we saw the Big Dipper floating through the second floor of the MHSAA office Sunday morning.

Michigan’s northernmost high school in Calumet held the handle – but the only place the rest of the Region pointed was to questions about how we could come up with such a disjointed scenario for this season’s Division 6 Playoffs.

Below – as has become an annual tradition – we’ll answer that question and a few more about this year’s selection process.

Our mission Sunday was to map 213 automatic qualifiers for 11-player football – and a record 43 additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 records – plus our top 32 8-player teams across 10 divisions of playoffs that will conclude with the latter Nov. 17 at Northern Michigan University and 11-player Nov. 23-24 at Ford Field.

As often noted in the past, this process didn’t start Sunday morning – but months and in some cases more than a year ago when athletic directors began scheduling games for this fall. We make sure all are loaded into our system by early summer, and then follow every score/cancellation/forfeit/additional change through Week 9’s final games – including this season those for 46 teams from other states or Ontario that played Michigan schools and needed to be followed as well because their successes affected MHSAA teams’ strengths of schedule.

Now that the maps are drawn, we line up all that will come with the next five weeks of games including assigning officials, gathering potential Semifinal sites and continuing our work with our Finals hosts to create memorable experiences as teams play for championships.

So we’re off. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2018.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions plus a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. Go to this page on MHSAA.com to see the pairings in full.

Ground Rules

Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, and in 2017 a second division of 8-player football was introduced.

The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent 11-player playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors and coaches). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.

As noted above, this season there were 213 automatic qualifiers for the 11-player field by win total with the final 43 additional qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only five Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so with those five we added 13 teams from Class A and B and 12 from Class C.

Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by red dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

The 8-player process is different for team selection and similar for designation of Regionals. We take the top 32 teams in 8-player based on playoff point average as our field, then re-sort those 32 by enrollment – the 16 biggest make up Division 1, followed by the next 16 in Division 2. There are no automatic qualifiers by record for 8-player.

Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.

Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 (or in 8-player, 16) dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.

Observations & Answers: 2018

We always start with CONGRATULATIONS: And this season they go first to Detroit Community, Detroit Public Safety Academy and Dexter, which made the MHSAA Football Playoffs for the first time. Of 611 football varsities across the state, all but 12 have made the playoffs at least once. Rockford missed out on an automatic bid with a Week 9 loss, but received an additional qualifier berth to set the record by making the MHSAA Playoffs for the 24th straight season. Crystal Falls Forest Park (22 seasons), Stevensville Lakeshore (21), Macomb Dakota (18), Climax-Scotts (16) and Grand Rapids West Catholic (16) also extended their stays on the list for longest MHSAA playoff streaks.

Break the tie: We again had to break a tie (actually two for District rounds) as teams that will or could meet ended up with the same playoff point averages. Ties are broken by head-to-head competition first – if the teams played each other during the regular season – followed by opponents’ winning percentage as the second criteria and then a coin flip if those two won’t do it. Our tie-breaks this season both took place in Division 4 – Grand Rapids South Christian received a home game against Wyoming Godwin Heights this week and St. Clair will host North Branch if they meet in a District Final. There are more possible meetings of teams with same averages in later rounds, and those ties will be broken the same way.

What is up with Division 6: Last year I had a “worst map ever,” and two of them this year would be in contention. Division 6 is the first – but the explanation for how we came up with what we did is simple. Region 1 is made up of two Districts with six schools from the northern Lower Peninsula and two from the Upper Peninsula. So however the Districts were sliced, two Lower Peninsula schools had to go with the U.P. And we settled this one strictly by comparing highway mileages of those Lower Peninsula teams to Mackinac Bridge (again, the only way to travel between the peninsulas). In the end, we placed Elk Rapids (93 miles) and Traverse City St. Francis (124) with Escanaba and Ishpeming Westwood because they are closest to the Bridge – followed by Kingsley (126), Maple City Glen Lake (144), Beaverton (161) and Tawas (168). The optics are strange – it may look like Glen Lake is driving past Elk Rapids and St. Francis on the way to Beaverton this week and potentially Tawas next. But Glen Lake’s route still travels south of those two schools this week (and depending on its chosen route on the way to Tawas as well), making everything fit – strangely looking, but nonetheless.

Lake Huron tour: You could see most of the American side by checking out this week’s Region 2 games in 8-player Division 2. This map also looks odd – there’s a bridge crossing and a drive around Saginaw Bay. Yet, after drawing this at least two more ways, we settled here – although Region 2 looks a little odd, all four teams are east of I-75 and north of Bay City.

Get your zoom on: We don’t enjoy splitting up teams that live next door to each other, but sometimes it’s a must. In Division 7 we were able to keep all eight Detroit-area and southeastern schools in Region 4, but the distance between its Districts came down to a few miles along I-96. In Division 2, we had to factor in outliers Port Huron Northern and Temperance Bedford – and the resulting Districts ended up splitting Livonia Churchill and Livonia Franklin.

At the end of the day …

I include this every year, but we draw the maps not knowing which schools are represented by the dots. At one point Sunday morning, I was wrong about which division we were considering at the time – and that’s a good thing. For the map drawing portion, it doesn’t matter.

But now that we know who is going where, here’s a glance at some stories that might emerge this week:

• We’ve got rivalries, like Portage Northern at Portage Central and Birmingham Groves at Birmingham Seaholm in Division 2, St. Johns at DeWitt and Haslett at East Lansing in Division 3, Constantine at Schoolcraft in Division 6 and Waterford Our Lady at Clarkston Everest Collegiate in Division 8 – plus Kingston at Deckerville in 8-player Division 1. There are many more we could mention – and some potential feuds renewed in two weeks as well depending on who wins this round.

• The Macomb Area Red, generally considered one of the strongest leagues annually in the state, sent four of six teams to the Division 1 playoffs – and they’re all in the same District. Champion Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (9-0) takes on Utica Eisenhower this week, and with a win would face either Macomb Dakota or Romeo after defeating both by just seven points during the regular season.

• Perhaps the most intriguing opener statewide is River Rouge (8-1) at Detroit Martin Luther King (7-2) in Division 3. Neither gets tested much during their league seasons, but both played tough nonleague opponents and the winner will be considered a favorite to make it to Ford Field.

• Farmington Hills Harrison holds the records for most MHSAA Finals appearances (18) and titles (13) and will play its final playoffs in Division 4 after finishing Division 3 runner-up a year ago. The school is closing next spring. Coach John Herrington is the winningest in state history with 441 wins and counting against only 111 losses (and a tie).

• There are a few annual powers not in the bracket this season – most notably Lowell, Muskegon Catholic Central and Menominee – and others like Rockford, Mendon and Grand Rapids West Catholic got in as additional qualifiers. West Catholic has won five straight Division 5 championships and opens at Hudsonville Unity Christian. The Falcons won the 2013 title after also entering as a 5-4 team.

• There are 34 teams entering the playoffs unbeaten, but only four Districts have multiple – Manistee and Reed City share one in Division 5, Traverse City St. Francis and Calumet in Division 6, Reading and Ottawa Lake Whiteford in Division 8, and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian and Morrice in 8-player Division 1. All of those potential matchups would happen in 11-Player District or 8-Player Regional Finals.

• This will be the eighth year of the 8-player tournament, and in Division 1 only Deckerville in 2012 has won an MHSAA championship in this format. In Division 2, reigning champion Crystal Falls Forest Park opens with 2015-16 back-to-back champion Powers North Central.

• In 8-player, three teams with 5-4 records didn’t make the field of 32, and two teams with 4-5 records advanced. This is the reality of measuring by playoff point average. Fife Lake Forest Area and Webberville are the 4-5 teams, and their opponents this season won more than 61 percent of their games. The three teams at 5-4 and one at 4-4 had opponents’ winning percentages between 38-56 percent.

Every school and every community can tell a story of making these playoffs, and over the next five weeks the fortunate will continue to write chapters filled with moments that will never be forgotten. We’re looking forward to watching them all unfold.

PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 6 map shows an odd-looking scenario with two Traverse City-area teams in the same District as two from the Upper Peninsula. (Middle) The 8-player Division 2 map shows how schools are connected to a District along the Lake Huron shoreline.

1st & Goal: Playoff Week 2 in Review

November 9, 2020

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

We’ll blame this season’s delayed start for taking a few more weeks to uncover some under-the-radar gems this football season.

But this weekend’s second-round 11-player District and 8-player Regional games allowed us to unearth a few more teams that have taken special advantage of the opportunity to get back on the field this fall.

You’ll spot them in our weekly review below (Eastpointe! Evart!), and they all don’t begin with the letter E (even if Essexville Garber does as well).

Historical context is based in part on data at Michigan-football.com.

11-Player

Division 1

HEADLINER Grand Blanc 42, Clarkston 35 The indications that Grand Blanc (7-1) might be on the verge of a special run have come to fruition as the Bobcats (7-1) outpaced previously-undefeated Clarkston. Their 42 points were double what the Wolves (7-1) had given up in a game this season. The win earned Grand Blanc a rematch this week with Davison, which dealt the Bobcats their lone loss. Click for more from the Flint Journal and see highlights below from State Champs Sports Network.

District Digest Holt 43, Grand Ledge 36 As the Rams (4-3) mourned the death of former longtime coach Mike Smith, they avenged a one-point loss two weeks earlier to the rival Comets (5-3). Rochester Hills Stoney Creek 28, Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 21 The Cougars (7-0) earned their first District Final berth, going ahead of the Big Reds (3-4) for good with a fourth-quarter score. Rockford 42, Hudsonville 7 These Ottawa-Kent Conference Red rivals missed out on playing each other during the regular season, but after the wait the Rams (6-0) ran their winning streak over the Eagles (5-3) to six. Romeo 15, Macomb Dakota 14 The Bulldogs (4-4) turned a six-point loss in Week 8 into a one-point win to reach the District Finals for the first time since 2016 and end Dakota’s season at 6-2.

Division 2

HEADLINER Muskegon Mona Shores 28, Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 25 The reigning Division 2 champion Sailors (8-0) received their biggest scare of the season, holding on as these teams met in the playoffs for the third time in four seasons. Forest Hills Central (6-2) led by as many as 10 points. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle and see highlights below from FOX 17.

District Digest Midland 31, Midland Dow 15 The Chemics (8-0) made it two wins in three weeks over their rival, although Dow (5-3) cut the margin from 26 to 16 in the rematch. Oak Park 27, Detroit U-D Jesuit 21 Few have made a new season of the playoffs more than Oak Park (2-6), which upped its postseason scoring to a combined 62 points after scoring 45 during the regular season. Caledonia 55, Lowell 38 The Fighting Scots (4-4) have found their stride as well over the last three weeks, as they’ve won their last three games since finishing up the O-K Red schedule. North Farmington 44, Fenton 28 The Raiders (5-3) earned their first District title berth and scored their season-high points for the second-straight week while handing Fenton (7-1) its only loss.

Division 3

HEADLINER Eastpointe 57, Warren Fitzgerald 0 From 2011-18, Eastpointe (formerly East Detroit) won at most four games in a season. With this win, the Shamrocks moved to 8-0 this fall and earned their first District Final berth, and the shutout was their sixth this fall. Fitzgerald (5-3) had averaged 41 points per game. Click for more from the Macomb Daily.

District Digest Marquette 21, Mount Pleasant 14 The Redmen (7-1) have tied their winningest season since 2010 and will play in a District Final for the first time since that fall as well after holding the Oilers (6-2) to their fewest points this season. Chelsea 49, South Lyon East 44 The Bulldogs (8-0) are 9-2 in the playoffs over the last three seasons, with now six wins by seven points or fewer after this challenge by the Cougars (5-3). River Rouge 38, Riverview 20 The Panthers (6-1) will play for their sixth District title in seven seasons thanks in part to locking down an offense that had scored 44.5 points per game during a 7-0 start. Detroit Martin Luther King 42, Marysville 17 After a pair of losses to title contenders to close the regular season, King (5-3) is back in stride especially defensively; Marysville (6-2) was averaging nearly 35 points per game entering this contest.

Division 4

HEADLINER Detroit Country Day 21, Pontiac Notre Dame Prep 14 The Irish (6-2) already had pushed Country Day to its closest win, a 10-0 Yellowjackets victory in Week 6. But Country Day (5-2) – the reigning Division 4 runner-up – prevailed this time with a fourth-quarter comeback to return to the District Finals. Click for more from the Oakland Press.

District Digest Paw Paw 24, Hastings 22 The Saxons (6-2) were one of the best stories of the regular season with their first winning record since 2012. But Paw Paw (6-2) has bounced back from two losses to contenders at the end of the regular season by earning a third-straight District Finals trip. Battle Creek Pennfield 63, Marshall 42 One of the highest-scoring games of the season saw Pennfield (5-3) match its winningest season since 2013. The Panthers had missed out on their annual regular-season meeting with the Redhawks (3-5) but avenged last year’s 35-point loss. Ortonville Brandon 33, Goodrich 6 The Blackhawks (7-1) claimed their second win over Goodrich (6-2) after the first eventually decided the Flint Metro League Stars title. North Branch 35, Croswell-Lexington 6 Similar story with this rematch, as the Broncos (8-0) had previously defeated the Pioneers (6-2) in the game that went on to decide the Blue Water Area Conference championship.

Division 5

HEADLINER Olivet 28, Kalamazoo United 14 The Eagles (7-1) have played in the postseason 13 years in row. After five straight first-round losses – including three by seven points or fewer – Olivet will return to the District Finals. Kalamazoo United (6-2) was averaging 44 points per game, but the Eagles still haven’t allowed an opponent to score more than 17. Click for more from JoeInsider.com.

District Digest Grand Rapids Catholic Central 41, Belding 6 The reigning Division 4 champion Cougars (7-0) are well on their way again; they held the Black Knights (6-2) 37 points below their average. Howard City Tri Country 40, Grant 21 The Vikings (4-4) opened this season with a one-point loss to Grant (3-4), but by winning the rematch will play in a District Final for the first  time since 2004. Frankenmuth 28, Almont 0 The Eagles (9-0) will play in a District Final for the ninth-straight season after shutting out the reigning Division 5 runner-up Raiders (3-3). Essexville Garber 21, Saginaw Swan Valley 14 The Dukes (7-1) are headed to their first District Final since 2013, adding a second win this season over Swan Valley (4-4) after two defeats to the Vikings in 2019.

Division 6

HEADLINER Montague 50, Clare 7 The Wildcats continued their playoff dominance of the last four years, claiming this matchup of undefeated league champions to advance to the District Finals for the fifth time in six seasons. Montague (8-0) of course was impressive on offense, but perhaps more so on the other side of the ball as Clare (7-1) entered the game scoring 50 points per game. Click for more from the Muskegon Chronicle and see highlights below from MI Sports Now.

District Digest Clinton 42, Erie Mason 24 These two switched leagues before this fall, Erie Mason (7-1) going on to win the Tri-County Conference title and Clinton (7-1) finishing second in the Lenawee County Athletic Association after they played in the opposite leagues for years prior. Boyne City 29, Maple City Glen Lake (OT) After losing to the reigning Division 6 runner-up 22-6 in their season opener, Boyne City (6-2) held on to avenge as the Lakers (5-3) went for the win after their overtime touchdown. Calumet 29, Menominee 14 The Copper Kings (4-3) made it two playoff wins in a row over Menominee (4-3) after they also met in a District Final in 2019. Negaunee 42, Ishpeming Westwood 14 These two were supposed to meet in a regular-season finale that was canceled, but two weeks later Negaunee (5-3) broke a three-game losing streak against the league rival Patriots (5-2).


Division 7

HEADLINER Evart 34, McBain 31 We see these every year, and they make high school football like no other level. Six weeks ago, McBain defeated Evart 52-16. The Wildcats (6-2) haven’t lost again and will play this weekend in their first District Final since 2012. The Ramblers had given up a total of 55 points this season before Evart’s latest 34. Click for more from the Cadillac News.

District Digest Oscoda 33, Beaverton 27 The Owls (8-0) have won eight games for the third straight season and now earned the opportunity to play in a District Final for the first time since 2000. Beaverton finished 6-2, its defeats by a combined 11 points. Cass City 14, Sandusky 12 (OT) This was as good as expected from two undefeated teams, with Cass City (8-0) moving on with an overtime conversion stop as Sandusky (7-1) attempted to tie. Madison Heights Bishop Foley 34, Detroit Central 30 The Ventures (7-1) have won two playoff games by a total of seven points to put themselves in a District Final for the first time since 2013. Lawton 21, Homer 19 Lawton (7-1) moved to 17-2 over the last two seasons and earned a rematch this week with Schoolcraft, which defeated the Blue Devils in Week 8.

Division 8

HEADLINER Bark River-Harris 22, West Iron County 6 The Broncos (5-2) quietly have won five straight with a defense that’s held all but one opponent to 20 or fewer points. (That other opponent is Iron Mountain, up next.) They didn’t get to face West Iron County (7-1) in scheduled league play this fall because of the late season start, but took this opportunity to break a two-game losing streak against the Wyakins (7-1). Click for more from the Escanaba Daily Press.

District Digest Beal City 31, Breckenridge 19 The Aggies (7-1) gradually broke away from the Huskies (6-2) to return to the District Finals for the second-straight season. Ubly 20, Unionville-Besewing 14 (OT) The Bearcats (6-2) ran their winning streak over USA (5-3) to seven after the teams previously missed out on their league game that was to open this fall. Petersburg Summerfield 29, Detroit Southeastern 20 The Bulldogs (3-5) have enjoyed the majority of their success this season over the last weeks, and this was a stunner as Southeastern (6-2) was scoring nearly 42 points per game. Royal Oak Shrine 28, Auburn Hills Oakland Christian 19 The Knights (6-2) will be playing for a third District title in five seasons after ending the Lancers’ run at 6-2.

8-Player 

Division 1

HEADLINER Adrian Lenawee Christian 78, Mayville 14 How strong might the Cougars be? Both of these teams entered unbeaten, but Lenawee Christian (8-0) actually upped its scoring average three more points to 56 ppg with the win. Regardless, take nothing away from the Wildcats (7-1), who put together their winningest season since 1987. Click for more from the Adrian Daily Telegram.

Regional Roundup Morrice 38, Merrill 20 Awaiting Lenawee Christian this week will be the Orioles (8-0), who held Merrill (6-2) to its season low and scored the most the Vandals gave up this fall. Marcellus 26, Lawrence 22 The Wildcats (5-2) tied their most wins in a season since 2012 by completing a two-game sweep of the Tigers (6-2), with those victories by a combined 10 points. Indian River Inland Lakes 46, Pellston 18 This win gave the Bulldogs (7-1) as many this season as the last five years combined and came against a Pellston team that was undefeated and had allowed only one opponent to come within 20 points. Suttons Bay 44 Whittemore-Prescott 0 After winning their first meeting 39-20, the Norsemen (8-0) were even better this time posting their fourth shutout to end the season for the Cardinals (5-3).

Division 2

HEADLINER Cedarville 28, Rapid River 20 Only one Division 2 game was decided by fewer than 20 points this week, but this met expectations as Cedarville (7-1) added to a 32-20 win over the Rockets (6-2) from Week 6. The Trojans have reached the Regional Finals six of the last seven seasons. Click for more from MI Sports Now. 

Regional Roundup Marion 51, Hillman 16 The Eagles (7-1) are undefeated since opening weekend and returning to the Regional Finals for the first time since 1996 after avenging last year’s playoff loss to the Tigers (3-5). Kinde North Huron 34, Peck 14 The Warriors (7-1) have won eight straight over Peck (4-4) and with this victory reached the Regional Finals for the third time in four years. Hale 44, Brethren 8 At 7-1, Hale is enjoying its best season since 1999, with this win over the Bobcats (5-3) its most impressive yet. Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart 51, Bay City All Saints 12 Only two weeks ago the Irish (7-1) edged All Saints (4-3) by eight points, but apparently picked up a few things to help them advance to the Regional Finals for the first time in three seasons of 8-player.

PHOTO: Beal City (on offense) moved on in Division 8 with a 31-19 win over Breckenridge. (Click to see more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)