Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '18
October 21, 2018
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
For a fading moment, we thought we saw the Big Dipper floating through the second floor of the MHSAA office Sunday morning.
Michigan’s northernmost high school in Calumet held the handle – but the only place the rest of the Region pointed was to questions about how we could come up with such a disjointed scenario for this season’s Division 6 Playoffs.
Below – as has become an annual tradition – we’ll answer that question and a few more about this year’s selection process.
Our mission Sunday was to map 213 automatic qualifiers for 11-player football – and a record 43 additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 records – plus our top 32 8-player teams across 10 divisions of playoffs that will conclude with the latter Nov. 17 at Northern Michigan University and 11-player Nov. 23-24 at Ford Field.
As often noted in the past, this process didn’t start Sunday morning – but months and in some cases more than a year ago when athletic directors began scheduling games for this fall. We make sure all are loaded into our system by early summer, and then follow every score/cancellation/forfeit/additional change through Week 9’s final games – including this season those for 46 teams from other states or Ontario that played Michigan schools and needed to be followed as well because their successes affected MHSAA teams’ strengths of schedule.
Now that the maps are drawn, we line up all that will come with the next five weeks of games including assigning officials, gathering potential Semifinal sites and continuing our work with our Finals hosts to create memorable experiences as teams play for championships.
So we’re off. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2018.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions plus a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. Go to this page on MHSAA.com to see the pairings in full.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, and in 2017 a second division of 8-player football was introduced.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent 11-player playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors and coaches). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
As noted above, this season there were 213 automatic qualifiers for the 11-player field by win total with the final 43 additional qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only five Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so with those five we added 13 teams from Class A and B and 12 from Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by red dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The 8-player process is different for team selection and similar for designation of Regionals. We take the top 32 teams in 8-player based on playoff point average as our field, then re-sort those 32 by enrollment – the 16 biggest make up Division 1, followed by the next 16 in Division 2. There are no automatic qualifiers by record for 8-player.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 (or in 8-player, 16) dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2018
We always start with CONGRATULATIONS: And this season they go first to Detroit Community, Detroit Public Safety Academy and Dexter, which made the MHSAA Football Playoffs for the first time. Of 611 football varsities across the state, all but 12 have made the playoffs at least once. Rockford missed out on an automatic bid with a Week 9 loss, but received an additional qualifier berth to set the record by making the MHSAA Playoffs for the 24th straight season. Crystal Falls Forest Park (22 seasons), Stevensville Lakeshore (21), Macomb Dakota (18), Climax-Scotts (16) and Grand Rapids West Catholic (16) also extended their stays on the list for longest MHSAA playoff streaks.
Break the tie: We again had to break a tie (actually two for District rounds) as teams that will or could meet ended up with the same playoff point averages. Ties are broken by head-to-head competition first – if the teams played each other during the regular season – followed by opponents’ winning percentage as the second criteria and then a coin flip if those two won’t do it. Our tie-breaks this season both took place in Division 4 – Grand Rapids South Christian received a home game against Wyoming Godwin Heights this week and St. Clair will host North Branch if they meet in a District Final. There are more possible meetings of teams with same averages in later rounds, and those ties will be broken the same way.
What is up with Division 6: Last year I had a “worst map ever,” and two of them this year would be in contention. Division 6 is the first – but the explanation for how we came up with what we did is simple. Region 1 is made up of two Districts with six schools from the northern Lower Peninsula and two from the Upper Peninsula. So however the Districts were sliced, two Lower Peninsula schools had to go with the U.P. And we settled this one strictly by comparing highway mileages of those Lower Peninsula teams to Mackinac Bridge (again, the only way to travel between the peninsulas). In the end, we placed Elk Rapids (93 miles) and Traverse City St. Francis (124) with Escanaba and Ishpeming Westwood because they are closest to the Bridge – followed by Kingsley (126), Maple City Glen Lake (144), Beaverton (161) and Tawas (168). The optics are strange – it may look like Glen Lake is driving past Elk Rapids and St. Francis on the way to Beaverton this week and potentially Tawas next. But Glen Lake’s route still travels south of those two schools this week (and depending on its chosen route on the way to Tawas as well), making everything fit – strangely looking, but nonetheless.
Lake Huron tour: You could see most of the American side by checking out this week’s Region 2 games in 8-player Division 2. This map also looks odd – there’s a bridge crossing and a drive around Saginaw Bay. Yet, after drawing this at least two more ways, we settled here – although Region 2 looks a little odd, all four teams are east of I-75 and north of Bay City.
Get your zoom on: We don’t enjoy splitting up teams that live next door to each other, but sometimes it’s a must. In Division 7 we were able to keep all eight Detroit-area and southeastern schools in Region 4, but the distance between its Districts came down to a few miles along I-96. In Division 2, we had to factor in outliers Port Huron Northern and Temperance Bedford – and the resulting Districts ended up splitting Livonia Churchill and Livonia Franklin.
At the end of the day …
I include this every year, but we draw the maps not knowing which schools are represented by the dots. At one point Sunday morning, I was wrong about which division we were considering at the time – and that’s a good thing. For the map drawing portion, it doesn’t matter.
But now that we know who is going where, here’s a glance at some stories that might emerge this week:
• We’ve got rivalries, like Portage Northern at Portage Central and Birmingham Groves at Birmingham Seaholm in Division 2, St. Johns at DeWitt and Haslett at East Lansing in Division 3, Constantine at Schoolcraft in Division 6 and Waterford Our Lady at Clarkston Everest Collegiate in Division 8 – plus Kingston at Deckerville in 8-player Division 1. There are many more we could mention – and some potential feuds renewed in two weeks as well depending on who wins this round.
• The Macomb Area Red, generally considered one of the strongest leagues annually in the state, sent four of six teams to the Division 1 playoffs – and they’re all in the same District. Champion Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (9-0) takes on Utica Eisenhower this week, and with a win would face either Macomb Dakota or Romeo after defeating both by just seven points during the regular season.
• Perhaps the most intriguing opener statewide is River Rouge (8-1) at Detroit Martin Luther King (7-2) in Division 3. Neither gets tested much during their league seasons, but both played tough nonleague opponents and the winner will be considered a favorite to make it to Ford Field.
• Farmington Hills Harrison holds the records for most MHSAA Finals appearances (18) and titles (13) and will play its final playoffs in Division 4 after finishing Division 3 runner-up a year ago. The school is closing next spring. Coach John Herrington is the winningest in state history with 441 wins and counting against only 111 losses (and a tie).
• There are a few annual powers not in the bracket this season – most notably Lowell, Muskegon Catholic Central and Menominee – and others like Rockford, Mendon and Grand Rapids West Catholic got in as additional qualifiers. West Catholic has won five straight Division 5 championships and opens at Hudsonville Unity Christian. The Falcons won the 2013 title after also entering as a 5-4 team.
• There are 34 teams entering the playoffs unbeaten, but only four Districts have multiple – Manistee and Reed City share one in Division 5, Traverse City St. Francis and Calumet in Division 6, Reading and Ottawa Lake Whiteford in Division 8, and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian and Morrice in 8-player Division 1. All of those potential matchups would happen in 11-Player District or 8-Player Regional Finals.
• This will be the eighth year of the 8-player tournament, and in Division 1 only Deckerville in 2012 has won an MHSAA championship in this format. In Division 2, reigning champion Crystal Falls Forest Park opens with 2015-16 back-to-back champion Powers North Central.
• In 8-player, three teams with 5-4 records didn’t make the field of 32, and two teams with 4-5 records advanced. This is the reality of measuring by playoff point average. Fife Lake Forest Area and Webberville are the 4-5 teams, and their opponents this season won more than 61 percent of their games. The three teams at 5-4 and one at 4-4 had opponents’ winning percentages between 38-56 percent.
Every school and every community can tell a story of making these playoffs, and over the next five weeks the fortunate will continue to write chapters filled with moments that will never be forgotten. We’re looking forward to watching them all unfold.
PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 6 map shows an odd-looking scenario with two Traverse City-area teams in the same District as two from the Upper Peninsula. (Middle) The 8-player Division 2 map shows how schools are connected to a District along the Lake Huron shoreline.
1st & Goal: Playoff Week 1 in Review
November 2, 2020
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
This already-unusual 2020 football season introduced the first nearly all-in football playoffs this weekend with plenty of new in terms of format – but also a lot of the unpredictability we expect from this time of year.
For the first time, with fields doubled, 11-player teams were placed in eight-team Districts and 8-player teams in eight-team Regionals. And going by seeds, 35 games were upsets, including two by No. 8 seeds over No. 1s, four by seven seeds over No. 2s and 13 by six seeds over No. 3s.
There also were 66 rematches of regular-season games – with 13 different winners the second time around.
Below is a glance at results that intrigued the most from this first playoff week. Historical context is based in part on data at Michigan-football.com.
8-Player
Division 1
HEADLINER Rochester Adams 39, Rochester 7 Their Week 1 game didn’t happen, of course, and Rochester (6-1) went on to its first perfect regular season since 1993. But Adams (3-4) ran its winning streak over its rival to 23 with its best scoring output of the season. Click for more from the Oakland Press.
District Digest Novi 41, Brighton 27 Their opening night meeting was canceled, with the Bulldogs (4-3) getting the forfeit win. Before that, Brighton had won seven of their last eight matchups with the Wildcats (3-4) – with Novi’s win during that string coming in the 2016 playoffs. Grand Blanc 28, Lake Orion 14 The Bobcats (6-1) claimed their first playoff win since 2012, guaranteeing their best record since 2017 and in three fewer games than both of the last two seasons. Dearborn 20, Monroe 15 The Pioneers (3-4) joined Novi among No. 6 seeds that upset No. 3s, giving up their fewest points since the season opener. Monroe did finish 4-3, a win better than 2019. Romeo 20, New Baltimore Anchor Bay 6 Romeo was another No. 6 seed to prevail, but Anchor Bay (4-3) still had plenty to celebrate this fall with a three-win improvement and league title.
Division 2
HEADLINER Oak Park 35, Grosse Pointe South 27 The Knights (1-6) couldn’t have picked a better moment to have their best of the season, winning their first game and scoring nearly half of their points for this fall in front of a FOX Sports Detroit audience. Oak Park was the eighth seed in the District and had put up only 45 points heading into the game. Grosse Pointe South (4-3) finished its season with two of its losses by eight points or fewer. Click for more from the Detroit Free Press and see highlights below from FSD.
Tonight's Game of the Week was STELLAR. Oak Park & Grosse Pointe South traded blows with the Knights defeating the Blue Devils 35-27. We hear from Knights QB James Burnley, WR Kyshaun Jackson, & Head Coach Greg Carter PLUS more reaction from Shep & Devin! #FWIM2020 pic.twitter.com/lu0XZJhoDo
— FOX Sports Detroit (@FOXSportsDet) October 31, 2020
District Digest Lowell 35, Byron Center 28 The Red Arrows (4-3) avenged a 14-point Week 7 loss to the Bulldogs (5-2), who went on to share the Ottawa-Kent Conference White title. Lowell also broke its three-game losing streak to close the regular season. Swartz Creek 28, Flint Carman-Ainsworth 6 The Dragons (5-2) added to a big turnaround season with their first playoff win. Dexter 56, Ypsilanti Lincoln 28 The Dreadnaughts (5-2) also earned their first playoff victory after near-misses the last two seasons. Ypsilanti Community 21, Dearborn Heights Crestwood 7 The Grizzlies (4-3) earned their first playoff victory as well and guaranteed at least their second-best season in eight as a program.
Division 3
HEADLINER Battle Creek Harper Creek 30, Parma Western 13 Their annual regular-season meeting was scheduled for Week 3, but Harper Creek (5-2) had to wait until the playoffs to break a recent two-game losing streak to the Panthers (4-3). The Beavers are now two wins better than both of the last two seasons. Click for more from the Battle Creek Enquirer.
District Digest Lansing Waverly 39, St. Johns 7 With their first playoff win, the Warriors (4-3) also guaranteed their best finish since at least 2012. Orchard Lake St. Mary’s 38, Pinckney 14 It’s not rare for a Catholic League Central team to have a so-so record after a highly-competitive regular season and come out strong in the playoffs, and St. Mary’s (2-3) is the latest example with this win over the Pirates (4-3). River Rouge 21, Gibraltar Carlson 0 The reigning Division 3 champion Panthers (5-1) picked up their fifth shutout of the season, halting a Marauders offense that had averaged nearly 34 points per game as the team went 4-2 during the regular season. Allen Park 18, Trenton 7 The Jaguars (5-2) made it three straight seasons with playoff wins over the league rival Trojans (3-4).
Division 4
HEADLINER Ada Forest Hills Eastern 42, Allendale 0 The Hawks (4-3) missed the playoffs the last four seasons and hadn’t finished with a winning record since 2015. But they’ll finish at least .500 this fall thanks to their second shutout over the last four weeks, against an Allendale team that did open this season 3-0 before a tough final month. See highlights below from FOX 17.
Five-seed Forest Hills Eastern shuts out four-seed Allendale to advance in the Division 4 playoffs. https://t.co/ysUjsQZsMG
— FOX 17 Blitz (@FOX17Blitz) October 31, 2020
District Digest Coopersville 26, Sparta 14 The Broncos (3-4) earned their first playoff win since 2007 as another No. 6 seed winner. Vicksburg 17, Plainwell 12 These teams didn’t get to play their Wolverine Conference game this fall, but Vicksburg (5-2) handed Plainwell (3-3) its only loss this season on the field. Madison Heights Lamphere 43, Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook Kingswood 0 The Rams (7-0) earned their first playoff win since 2009, continuing their best run since at least that fall. Croswell-Lexington 40, Imlay City 26 The Pioneers (6-1) tied their winningest season since 2012 with their second victory this fall over Imlay City (4-3).
Division 5
HEADLINER Belding 32, Hopkins 18 The Black Knights’ surge continued as they’ve gone on to outscore three opponents by a combined 140-21 since losing to Hopkins by six in Week 7. That first-meeting win earned the Vikings (5-2) the O-K Silver championship, but this rematch allowed Belding (6-1) to move on in one of the strongest Districts in the state, regardless of division. Click for more from the Greenville Daily News.
VIDEO: Check out the highlights of the Hopkins at Belding football game from this afternoon. Courtesy: WXMI-TV#StateChamps X @MHSAA pic.twitter.com/6h92cUrPrT
— STATE CHAMPS! Michigan (@statechampsmich) November 1, 2020
District Digest Kingsford 13, Ogemaw Heights 6 The Flivvers (4-2) improved to 4-1 on the field, reducing their points-allowed average this fall to 12.4 per game. Howard City Tri County 33, Central Montcalm 7 All four Vikings losses this season have come by seven points or fewer, and this avenged a 7-0 defeat to the Hornets (4-3) in Week 7. Olivet 20, Hillsdale 17 The Eagles (6-1) emerged with a solid win in another strong top-to-bottom District, as the No. 6-seeded Hornets finished 4-3. Richmond 38, Macomb Lutheran North 7 Add the Blue Devils (3-4) as well to the No. 6 seeds that won over the weekend as they upset Lutheran North (4-3).
Division 6
HEADLINER Clare 41, Kent City 6 The Pioneers moved to 7-0 by winning this matchup of league champions and added to a defensive effort that’s allowed just 8.6 points per game. Kent City (5-2) had averaged nearly 31 points per game entering the weekend. Click for more from the Mount Pleasant Morning Sun and see below for highlights from MI Sports Now.
Clare opened its stay in the Division 6 postseason with a 41-6 win over Kent City on Friday.https://t.co/paJ0NqYtYk pic.twitter.com/utMYr00j3Z
— MISportsNow (@MISportsNow) October 31, 2020
District Digest Negaunee 28, Gladstone 14 The Miners’ two losses on the field this season were by a combined four points, and with this win they avenged the first. Harrison 22, Sanford Meridian 14 Harrison (5-2) also avenged a loss after falling to Meridian (4-3) by 20 points in Week 6. Parchment 42, Coloma 40 The Panthers (3-4) started 0-4, with that fourth defeat by 11 to Coloma (4-3) in Week 7. Adrian Madison 34, Quincy 30 The Trojans (6-1) tied their most wins in a season since 2009 with their first ever in the playoffs.
Division 7
HEADLINER Evart 23, Houghton Lake 18 The Wildcats’ first playoff win since 2012 guaranteed its winningest season since 2016 and earned Evart (5-2) a rematch with Highland Conference champion McBain. Evart has won five straight since losing the first McBain game in Week 5. Houghton Lake finished 4-3, with two of those losses to the Wildcats. Click for more from the Cadillac News.
District Digest Madison Heights Bishop Foley 27, Madison Heights Madison 24 After beating Madison 34-2 in Week 9, Bishop Foley (6-1) had to rally to move on in the rematch a week later. Detroit Central 26, Detroit Community 22 The Trail Blazers (5-2) bounced back from two straight losses, while Community ended a season that saw three of its last four losses come by eight points or fewer. Bad Axe 19, Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker 12 Laker (4-3) made this rematch closer than Bad Axe’s 21-point win two weeks ago, but the Hatchets (5-2) were able to get to five wins for the first time since 2014. Cass City 36, Reese 26 The Rockets had come a long way since Cass City’s 42-3 win in Week 5, but the Red Hawks (7-0) held on despite giving up a point shy of half their season total.
Division 8
HEADLINER Gwinn 24, East Jordan 20 The Modeltowners earned their first playoff victory since 1999, improving to 4-3 after winning just a game a year ago – another wonderful tribute to late coach Dion Brown, who died unexpectedly in January. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.
District Digest Unionville-Sebewaing 57, Marlette 14 The Patriots (5-2) are 12 points over two games from being undefeated and went over 50 points for the second time this fall. Detroit Leadership 8, Melvindale Academy of Business & Tech 6 The Cougars (4-3) earned the first playoff win in their five years as a program. Bark River-Harris 54, St. Ignace 20 The Broncos (4-2) opened this fall with two losses but haven’t lost since, in this win putting up one-third of their points for the entire season. Saranac 14, Potterville 0 After not winning since opening night, Saranac picked up its first playoff victory since 2011.
8-Player
Division 1
HEADLINER Indian River Inland Lakes 34, Munising 22 After two straight winless seasons in 11-player, and three over its final four, Inland Lakes improved to 6-1 this fall by ending Munising’s first 8-player season at 4-3. This also was Inland Lakes’ first win in the playoffs since 1995. Click for more from the Cheboygan News.
Regional Roundup Merrill 66, Deckerville 22 The Vandals (6-1) opened their first 8-player playoffs with their highest-scoring game of the season, ending Deckerville’s season at 4-3. Gaylord St. Mary 86, Central Lake 54 By combining for 140 points, these teams earned a record book entry for fourth-highest scoring game in MHSAA 8-player history. Mesick 34, Vestaburg 0 The Bulldogs (5-2) won their first playoff game ever with their first shutout since last season. Mayville 48, Genesee 20 The Wildcats’ best season since at least the 1980s will continue as they earned a matchup with also-undefeated Adrian Lenawee Christian this week.
Division 2
HEADLINER Wyoming Tri-unity Christian 59, Burr Oak 18 The Bobcats (5-2) have to celebrate a season during which they tied their most wins since 1974. But the Defenders’ offense remains potent scoring nearly 43 points per game despite the team being only 3-4. And note, all four of those defeats came to teams in Division 1 or too large for the 8-player playoffs. Click for more from JoeInsider.com.
Regional Roundup Lake Linden-Hubbell 48, Crystal Falls Forest Park 8 The Lakes (4-3) have gotten on the field for only five games, but they’ve made them count including with this big win over old rival Forest Park (4-2). Peck 30, Ashley 0 After losing 30-22 to the Bears (3-4) in Week 9, Peck (4-3) came back big a week later in the rematch. Colon 52, Climax-Scotts 14 The Magi (6-1) may have suffered a loss this season after a perfect 2019, but that hasn’t meant they’re done – especially considering that defeat came to Division 1 Lenawee Christian. Waldron 30, Tekonsha 6 The Spartans (5-2) nearly reversed a 28-point loss to Tekonsha (4-3) only three weeks ago.
PHOTO: Marquette's Kameron Karp (23) is able to get by Muskegon Reeths-Puffer's Caden Brainard (8) but is taken down by Landon Mechem (32) at the 4-yard line during their Saturday matchup. (Photo by Cara Kamps.)