Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis '18
October 21, 2018
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
For a fading moment, we thought we saw the Big Dipper floating through the second floor of the MHSAA office Sunday morning.
Michigan’s northernmost high school in Calumet held the handle – but the only place the rest of the Region pointed was to questions about how we could come up with such a disjointed scenario for this season’s Division 6 Playoffs.
Below – as has become an annual tradition – we’ll answer that question and a few more about this year’s selection process.
Our mission Sunday was to map 213 automatic qualifiers for 11-player football – and a record 43 additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 records – plus our top 32 8-player teams across 10 divisions of playoffs that will conclude with the latter Nov. 17 at Northern Michigan University and 11-player Nov. 23-24 at Ford Field.
As often noted in the past, this process didn’t start Sunday morning – but months and in some cases more than a year ago when athletic directors began scheduling games for this fall. We make sure all are loaded into our system by early summer, and then follow every score/cancellation/forfeit/additional change through Week 9’s final games – including this season those for 46 teams from other states or Ontario that played Michigan schools and needed to be followed as well because their successes affected MHSAA teams’ strengths of schedule.
Now that the maps are drawn, we line up all that will come with the next five weeks of games including assigning officials, gathering potential Semifinal sites and continuing our work with our Finals hosts to create memorable experiences as teams play for championships.
So we’re off. For those familiar with our playoff selection process, or who have read this report in the past and don’t want a refresher on how we do what we do, skip the next section and go directly to the “Observations & Answers: 2018.” For the rest, what follows is an explanation of how we selected the playoff pairings during the morning hours Sunday, followed by how we made some of the toughest decisions plus a few thoughts on the breakdown of the field. Go to this page on MHSAA.com to see the pairings in full.
Ground Rules
Our past: The MHSAA 11-player playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth (or five wins for teams playing eight or fewer games) – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, and in 2017 a second division of 8-player football was introduced.
The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regionals after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent 11-player playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process, lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors and coaches). Re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, what schools played in co-ops and opted to play as a higher class start a week in advance, and more numbers are crunched Sunday morning as the fields are set.
As noted above, this season there were 213 automatic qualifiers for the 11-player field by win total with the final 43 additional qualifiers then selected, by playoff-point average, one from each class in order (A, B, C, D) until the field was filled. There were only five Class D additional qualifiers with 5-4 or 4-4 (playing eight games) records from which we could choose – so with those five we added 13 teams from Class A and B and 12 from Class C.
Those 256 11-player teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by red dots) – not records, playoff point averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
The 8-player process is different for team selection and similar for designation of Regionals. We take the top 32 teams in 8-player based on playoff point average as our field, then re-sort those 32 by enrollment – the 16 biggest make up Division 1, followed by the next 16 in Division 2. There are no automatic qualifiers by record for 8-player.
Geography rules: This long has been rule number one for drawing MHSAA brackets in any sport. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Jumping on a major highway clearly is easier than driving across county-wide back roads, and that’s taken into consideration. Also, remember there’s only one Mackinac Bridge and hence only one way to cross between peninsulas – and boats are not considered a possible form of transportation. When opponents from both peninsulas will be in the same District, distance to the bridge is far more important than as the bird flies.
Tradition doesn’t reign: Every group of 32 (or in 8-player, 16) dots is a new group – these 32 teams have not been placed in a bracket together before. How maps have been drawn in the past isn’t considered – it’s hard to say a division has been drawn in a certain way traditionally when this set of 32 teams is making up a division for the first time.
Observations & Answers: 2018
We always start with CONGRATULATIONS: And this season they go first to Detroit Community, Detroit Public Safety Academy and Dexter, which made the MHSAA Football Playoffs for the first time. Of 611 football varsities across the state, all but 12 have made the playoffs at least once. Rockford missed out on an automatic bid with a Week 9 loss, but received an additional qualifier berth to set the record by making the MHSAA Playoffs for the 24th straight season. Crystal Falls Forest Park (22 seasons), Stevensville Lakeshore (21), Macomb Dakota (18), Climax-Scotts (16) and Grand Rapids West Catholic (16) also extended their stays on the list for longest MHSAA playoff streaks.
Break the tie: We again had to break a tie (actually two for District rounds) as teams that will or could meet ended up with the same playoff point averages. Ties are broken by head-to-head competition first – if the teams played each other during the regular season – followed by opponents’ winning percentage as the second criteria and then a coin flip if those two won’t do it. Our tie-breaks this season both took place in Division 4 – Grand Rapids South Christian received a home game against Wyoming Godwin Heights this week and St. Clair will host North Branch if they meet in a District Final. There are more possible meetings of teams with same averages in later rounds, and those ties will be broken the same way.
What is up with Division 6: Last year I had a “worst map ever,” and two of them this year would be in contention. Division 6 is the first – but the explanation for how we came up with what we did is simple. Region 1 is made up of two Districts with six schools from the northern Lower Peninsula and two from the Upper Peninsula. So however the Districts were sliced, two Lower Peninsula schools had to go with the U.P. And we settled this one strictly by comparing highway mileages of those Lower Peninsula teams to Mackinac Bridge (again, the only way to travel between the peninsulas). In the end, we placed Elk Rapids (93 miles) and Traverse City St. Francis (124) with Escanaba and Ishpeming Westwood because they are closest to the Bridge – followed by Kingsley (126), Maple City Glen Lake (144), Beaverton (161) and Tawas (168). The optics are strange – it may look like Glen Lake is driving past Elk Rapids and St. Francis on the way to Beaverton this week and potentially Tawas next. But Glen Lake’s route still travels south of those two schools this week (and depending on its chosen route on the way to Tawas as well), making everything fit – strangely looking, but nonetheless.
Lake Huron tour: You could see most of the American side by checking out this week’s Region 2 games in 8-player Division 2. This map also looks odd – there’s a bridge crossing and a drive around Saginaw Bay. Yet, after drawing this at least two more ways, we settled here – although Region 2 looks a little odd, all four teams are east of I-75 and north of Bay City.
Get your zoom on: We don’t enjoy splitting up teams that live next door to each other, but sometimes it’s a must. In Division 7 we were able to keep all eight Detroit-area and southeastern schools in Region 4, but the distance between its Districts came down to a few miles along I-96. In Division 2, we had to factor in outliers Port Huron Northern and Temperance Bedford – and the resulting Districts ended up splitting Livonia Churchill and Livonia Franklin.
At the end of the day …
I include this every year, but we draw the maps not knowing which schools are represented by the dots. At one point Sunday morning, I was wrong about which division we were considering at the time – and that’s a good thing. For the map drawing portion, it doesn’t matter.
But now that we know who is going where, here’s a glance at some stories that might emerge this week:
• We’ve got rivalries, like Portage Northern at Portage Central and Birmingham Groves at Birmingham Seaholm in Division 2, St. Johns at DeWitt and Haslett at East Lansing in Division 3, Constantine at Schoolcraft in Division 6 and Waterford Our Lady at Clarkston Everest Collegiate in Division 8 – plus Kingston at Deckerville in 8-player Division 1. There are many more we could mention – and some potential feuds renewed in two weeks as well depending on who wins this round.
• The Macomb Area Red, generally considered one of the strongest leagues annually in the state, sent four of six teams to the Division 1 playoffs – and they’re all in the same District. Champion Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (9-0) takes on Utica Eisenhower this week, and with a win would face either Macomb Dakota or Romeo after defeating both by just seven points during the regular season.
• Perhaps the most intriguing opener statewide is River Rouge (8-1) at Detroit Martin Luther King (7-2) in Division 3. Neither gets tested much during their league seasons, but both played tough nonleague opponents and the winner will be considered a favorite to make it to Ford Field.
• Farmington Hills Harrison holds the records for most MHSAA Finals appearances (18) and titles (13) and will play its final playoffs in Division 4 after finishing Division 3 runner-up a year ago. The school is closing next spring. Coach John Herrington is the winningest in state history with 441 wins and counting against only 111 losses (and a tie).
• There are a few annual powers not in the bracket this season – most notably Lowell, Muskegon Catholic Central and Menominee – and others like Rockford, Mendon and Grand Rapids West Catholic got in as additional qualifiers. West Catholic has won five straight Division 5 championships and opens at Hudsonville Unity Christian. The Falcons won the 2013 title after also entering as a 5-4 team.
• There are 34 teams entering the playoffs unbeaten, but only four Districts have multiple – Manistee and Reed City share one in Division 5, Traverse City St. Francis and Calumet in Division 6, Reading and Ottawa Lake Whiteford in Division 8, and Wyoming Tri-unity Christian and Morrice in 8-player Division 1. All of those potential matchups would happen in 11-Player District or 8-Player Regional Finals.
• This will be the eighth year of the 8-player tournament, and in Division 1 only Deckerville in 2012 has won an MHSAA championship in this format. In Division 2, reigning champion Crystal Falls Forest Park opens with 2015-16 back-to-back champion Powers North Central.
• In 8-player, three teams with 5-4 records didn’t make the field of 32, and two teams with 4-5 records advanced. This is the reality of measuring by playoff point average. Fife Lake Forest Area and Webberville are the 4-5 teams, and their opponents this season won more than 61 percent of their games. The three teams at 5-4 and one at 4-4 had opponents’ winning percentages between 38-56 percent.
Every school and every community can tell a story of making these playoffs, and over the next five weeks the fortunate will continue to write chapters filled with moments that will never be forgotten. We’re looking forward to watching them all unfold.
PHOTOS: (Top) The Division 6 map shows an odd-looking scenario with two Traverse City-area teams in the same District as two from the Upper Peninsula. (Middle) The 8-player Division 2 map shows how schools are connected to a District along the Lake Huron shoreline.
Drive for Detroit: 11-Player Semis Preview
November 22, 2019
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
The "Drive for Detroit" will take one last turn this weekend on the way to the final destination for 16 teams fortunate enough to finish this fall at Ford Field.
This season's Semifinal field is a mix of teams that have made this trip plenty of times in the past – along with a few traveling this path for the first time, or the first time in a long while.
We're expecting great weather across most of the state, so find a seat in the bleachers and root on your favorite team. But if you’d rather watch from the comforts of home, this weekend we again will have all 16 Semifinals available, either on FOXSportsDetroit.com or MHSAA.tv. (Click for the full schedule.)
All games are 1 p.m. Saturday unless noted. “Drive for Detroit” is powered by MI Student Aid
Division 1
Belleville (12-0) vs. Brighton (10-2) at Howell High School
For the second straight season, Belleville is one more win from reaching the Finals for the first time. Junior quarterback Christian Dhue-Reid (2,706 yards/33 TDs passing) has led a return Semifinal march that’s seen the Tigers go unbeaten since falling in last year’s Semifinal to eventual champion Clinton Township Chippewa Valley. Brighton also is playing to reach its first championship game in this sport and also follows a dynamic quarterback in senior Colby Newburg (1,140 yards/17 TDs rushing, 1,319 yards/17 TDs passing).
Davison (10-2) vs. Sterling Heights Stevenson (8-4) at Troy Athens
The Cardinals are playing in their fifth Semifinal and for their first trip to a championship game. Davison is riding the arm of another quarterback getting a lot of attention – junior Brendan Sullivan has thrown for 2,635 yards and 31 touchdowns and run for eight more scores. Stevenson will be the third team from the vaunted Macomb Area Conference Red to see Davison this playoffs. The Titans are one of the state’s best comeback stories coming off three straight sub-.500 seasons. They have a number of versatile weapons, among them senior running back Nick Wingfield (1,018 yards/15 TDs rushing), as they seek their first Finals trip since 2009.
Division 2
Walled Lake Western (11-1) vs. Muskegon Mona Shores (10-2) at Okemos
The Warriors are a Week 3 three-point loss to Orchard Lake St. Mary’s from undefeated this fall as they seek their second trip to Ford Field in four seasons. Quarterback Zach Trainor (2,685 yards/32 TDs passing) to receiver Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen (1,443 yards/18 TDs receiving) has been one of the state’s top scoring combinations. Mona Shores will need to slow Western down to return to Ford Field after finishing Division 2 runner-up a year ago. The Sailors will counter with an attack led by running back Tre Hatcher (1,257 yards/12 TDs rushing) and veteran quarterback Caden Broersma (406 yards/10 TDs rushing, 908 yards/11 TDs passing).
Detroit Martin Luther King (10-2) vs. Birmingham Seaholm (9-3) at Novi, 3 p.m.
Despite moving back to Division 2 after winning Division 3 a year ago, King will play in its fifth straight Semifinal and is riding a 10-game winning streak after early losses to Detroit Catholic Central and Muskegon. Freshman Dante Moore (2,240 yards/30 TDs) has more than fulfilled preseason media build-up, and senior Peny Boone (903 yards/15 touchdowns) is regarded as one of the top backs in the state. Seaholm is seeking its first championship game berth and playing its first Semifinal since 1997. Chaz Strecker has carried the load with 1,493 yards and 20 touchdowns for a Maples team approaching nearly 4,000 yards on the ground.
Division 3
Muskegon (12-0) vs. DeWitt (10-2) at East Kentwood
Muskegon has appeared on a mission since falling to King in last season’s Division 3 Final, and senior quarterback Cameron Martinez (1,735 yards/32 TDs rushing, 1,122 yards/10 TDs passing) again has led the charge. The only team to come within 20 points of the Big Reds this season was East Grand Rapids in Week 3, and Muskegon won the rematch last week 49-10. But DeWitt as a program has more experience at this level of the playoffs than most in the state, and the Panthers are coming off a 35-14 win over Edwardsburg that ended the reigning Division 4 champion’s winning streak at 25. The Panthers haven’t given up more than 15 points in a game since Week 5, and senior quarterback Andrew Schorfaar leads the team both in passing (1,458 yards/18 TDs) and rushing (1,058/14).
Chelsea (12-0) vs. River Rouge (11-1) at Dearborn
Chelsea has advanced to MHSAA Finals in both Divisions 3 and 4 over the last five years. The Bulldogs have won three games by seven points or fewer this playoffs to come within another victory of a second-straight trip to Ford Field after finishing Division 4 runners-up a year ago. A steady defense gives up just more than 12 points per game, while running back Brennan Van Riper (952 yards/13 TDs rushing) is among a number of offensive options. Rouge has won 11 straight since falling by three in its opener to Division 4 contender Grand Rapids Catholic Central and will play in its fourth Semifinal in five years. Running back Deandre Bulley (1,820 yards/20 TDs) has been tough to bring down at 6-foot-2, 245 pounds, and quarterback Mareyohn Hrabowski has reached 1,000 yards both rushing and passing. Meanwhile, the defense is giving up just 8.3 points per game.
Division 4
Grand Rapids Catholic Central (11-1) vs. Hudsonville Unity Christian (9-3) at Jenison
The Cougars are playing in their fourth-straight Semifinal and seeking their third championship game trip during this string after missing out last year with a two-point loss to Edwardsburg. GRCC is unbeaten in-state this fall, with its lone loss to a team from Illinois. Quarterback Joey Silveri drives the offense, throwing for 2,491 yards and 31 touchdowns and running for 704 yards and 13 scores. But Unity Christian has plenty of experience at this level too coming off last season’s Division 5 championship. Running back Malekhi Obande is averaging nearly 10 yards per carry (1,311 total, with 14 TDs rushing), and like GRCC the Crusaders won their first three playoff games all by at least three touchdowns.
Detroit Country Day (12-0) vs. Flint Powers Catholic (10-2) at Howell Parker Middle School
The Yellowjackets are playing in their fourth Semifinal in six seasons and advanced after handing Milan its only loss this season last week. The defense shined again, giving up just six points, which actually upped its average to 5.6 points given up per game. On the other side of the ball, running back Anthony Ammori (822 yards/14 TDs) leads a rushing attack that’s gained more than 2,200 yards. Powers’ defense during the regular season against much larger opponents in the Saginaw Valley League Blue didn’t stand out, but during the playoffs the Chargers have given up only 28 points over three games. Quarterback Luke Phillpotts has run and passed both for more than 700 yards to lead the team in both categories.
Division 5
Kingsley (12-0) vs. Lansing Catholic (11-1) at Greenville
Kingsley has won all of its games by double digits including in Week 7 against Division 6 semifinalist Maple City Glen Lake, and eliminated unbeaten Muskegon Oakridge in a 17-point win two weeks ago. Running backs Ayden Mullin (1,451 yards/21 TDs rushing) and Owen Graves (713 yards/12 TDs) are both averaging more than nine yards per carry as the team works toward making the Finals for the first time since 2005. But Lansing Catholic, now free of rival Portland after falling to the Raiders the last two District Finals, is aiming for its first Ford Field trip since 2014 with its most productive offense since that season. Quarterback Zach Gillespie has thrown for 2,247 yards and 24 touchdowns and run for another 18 scores.
Almont (12-0) vs. Detroit Denby (10-2) at Walled Lake Central
The Raiders have put together a 22-1 run over the last two seasons as they seek their first trip to the Finals. Almont long has been known for defense, and this year’s unit is giving up just 10 points per game. But the offense has reached 500 points for the first time since 2014 with four rushers gaining at least 500 yards and quarterback Josh Hellebuyck providing a nice complement with 1,194 yards and 22 TDs through the air. Denby also is seeking its first Finals berth, while playing in its first Semifinal, and has lost this season to only King, twice. The Tars have given up only 97 points this season – and subtract the King losses, they are allowing only 3.8 points per game.
Division 6
Maple City Glen Lake (11-1) vs. Montague (10-2) at Clare
Glen Lake’s only defeat this season was to Kingsley, as noted above, and the Lakers are seeking their second trip to Ford Field in four years. After dominating most of the regular season, Glen Lake has won close the last three weeks – with that experience possibly paying off in what’s sure to be a challenging matchup with last season’s Division 6 runner-up. Quarterback Reece Hazelton towers over most defenders at 6-6 and has thrown for 1,012 yards and 14 touchdowns, with Jonathan Wright adding 1,112 yards and 17 scores on the ground for the Lakers. Montague quarterback Drew Collins started during last season’s run and is starring with 2,354 yards and 27 TDs passing and 663 yards and 14 scores rushing.
Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (10-1) vs. Onsted (10-2) at Ypsilanti Lincoln
The Falcons opened this decade with three Semifinal appearances over the first five years, and will close with one more thanks in part to a defense that hasn’t given up more than 16 points since Week 3. St. Mary also has scored its most points since its championship season of 2014 despite playing one fewer game so far than the last two years (because of an open date). Alex Morgan leads that effort with 1,571 yards and 16 touchdowns rushing. Onsted has made its first Semifinal since 1993 by avenging losses to Blissfield and formerly-undefeated Hillsdale during the playoffs. The Wildcats finished only 3-6 a year ago but have rebounded in part because of a ground attack featuring two 1,000-yard rushers, Travis Hill (1,312 yards/14 TDs) and Rourke Barth (1,025/16).
Division 7
Iron Mountain (12-0) vs. Pewamo-Westphalia (12-0) at the Superior Dome, 7 p.m. Friday
Pewamo-Westphalia will see its second-straight undefeated opponent after handing the first and only loss of the season last week to reigning champion New Lothrop. Iron Mountain won a league that sent four teams total to the playoffs and also has won all of its playoff games by at least two scores. Caleb Evosivich-Hynes is the team’s leading rusher (1,289 yards/12 TDs) and receiver (435/8), catching passes from quarterback and also basketball standout Marcus Johnson (1,037 yards/14 TDs passing). The Pirates got up big on New Lothrop before holding off the Hornets down the stretch to win by a point 36-35, but otherwise P-W has locked down all of its opponents, giving up only 56 points on the season. Expect to see the ball often in running back Tanner Wirth’s hands, as he has run for nearly 10 yards per carry and 1,499 and 24 touchdowns overall.
Jackson Lumen Christi (11-0) vs. Cass City (11-1) at Novi, 11 a.m.
The Titans have won 24 straight games and the last three Division 6 championships, and they impressed in a major test last week holding off Schoolcraft 35-30. It’s hardly a surprise that Lumen Christi runs the ball well – the latest in its string of star runners is Walker Plate, who has rushed for 2,279 yards and 31 touchdowns. Cass City is playing in its first Semifinal boasting a defense that has given up only 52 points all year – and just two over three playoff games. The Red Hawks have given up more than eight points only once, in a two-point opening-night loss to Montrose.
Division 8
Beal City (11-1) vs. Ubly (10-2) at Mount Pleasant
Both of these teams have reached the Semifinals previously this decade, Beal City most recently in 2014 and Ubly in 2016. Both also bounced back from late losses this time to make their runs – Beal City against McBain and Ubly to Cass City (see Division 7 above). Beal City has gained more than 3,200 yards this season showing impressive balance with no one rushing for more than 750 or throwing for more than 450. Ubly has four backs with at least 600 yards rushing, but the main ball carrier for an offense with nearly 4,300 yards total is Carson Heleski (1,447 yards/19 TDs rushing).
Reading (11-1) vs. Fowler (11-1) at Battle Creek Harper Creek
There are a lot of similarities in how these two small-school powers conduct business on the field. Fowler, in its first Semifinal since reaching the Division 8 championship game in 2011, has for decades been known for its powerful running. This season that’s come in the forms of Kyle Snyder (1,481 yards/21 TDs rushing) and Caiden Pung (1,222 yards/21 TDs). Reading rode the same to last season’s Division 8 title and is back in the hunt led by Hunter Midtgard (1,212 yards/15 TDs) among others running behind 6-3, 307-pound Nick Affholter. The key may be who stops whom; the Rangers have given up only 79 points, and the Eagles only 137.
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PHOTO: Beal City's Logan Chilman (10) breaks away from an Ishpeming's Dawson Delongchamp during last weekend's Division 8 Regional Final win. (Photo by Cara Kamps.)