Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012

October 24, 2012

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.

So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:

How would you have done so differently?

And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.

This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.

Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.

Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.

Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.

There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”

Observations and answers

A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.

Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season. 

No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.

The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.

Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.

And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way. 

Their journeys begin Friday.

A Game for Every Fan: District Finals

November 6, 2014

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

One week of MHSAA football playoffs is behind us, and all nine champions from 2013 are still alive.

Maybe that's not too shocking, considering they were the elite only a short year ago. But don't be too surprised if that number is cut down by at least a few when Saturday night is done. 

All nine of those reigning champions remain undefeated heading into Friday and Saturday's District Finals. But three are playing opponents also undefeated through 10 weeks. 

All three matchups are among those highlighted below as we look to this week's 11-player District Finals and 8-player Regional Finals. All are Friday unless noted.

DIVISION 1

Lapeer (10-0) at Clarkston (10-0)

The Wolves have fended off a few impressive challenges in building their winning streak to 23 straight including last season's run to their first MHSAA title. Quarterback D.J. Zezula has taken on and thrived in a starring role as Clarkston has earned close wins over Macomb Dakota and Farmington Hills Harrison and double-digit victories over everyone else. But Lapeer is as daunting an unknown as they come in this tournament; the Lightning, in its first season after the combination of Lapeer East and West, also has been challenged only twice but hung tough in its playoff debut last week with a 23-15 win over Romeo.

Others that caught my eye: Hudsonville (6-4) at Rockford (8-2), Detroit Cass Tech (10-0) at Dearborn Fordson (10-0).

DIVISION 2

Muskegon Mona Shores (9-1) at Midland Dow (10-0)

On a night featuring a decent share of 10-0 vs. 10-0 District Finals, this still is among premier games. Dow must defend Midland Community Stadium against the playmaking power of Mona Shores quarterback Tyree Jackson, who has led his offense to 42 or more points five weeks running while facing the likes of Muskegon and Caledonia among others. The Chargers could be up to the task, having given up no more than 21 points in a game this fall in earning this opportunity to tie its record for wins.

Others that caught my eye: Farmington Hills Harrison (8-2) at Walled Lake Western (9-1), Southfield (7-3) at Oak Park (8-2).

DIVISION 3

Stevensville Lakeshore (8-2) at Zeeland West (10-0)

Aside from an odd opening-night score (2-0 over Battle Creek Central), Lakeshore has rather quietly won eight games for the third straight season. But the Lancers could make a major splash by knocking off the reigning MHSAA champion. If the score stays close, it could up Lakeshore's chances significantly; the Lancers are 5-1 this fall in games decided by 10 or fewer points. West has had only one opponent get closer than 27 points, and none come within 10.

Others that caught my eye: Cedar Springs (9-1) at Muskegon (9-1) on Saturday, Grand Rapids Christian (6-4) at Lowell (9-1).

DIVISION 4

Saginaw Swan Valley (10-0) at Lansing Sexton (10-0)

This could be THE game of this weekend, with the winner a favorite to at least reach Ford Field – if not win it all. These two also met in a Regional Final last fall, with Sexton winning 26-21. Vikings running back Alex Grace has at least 212 yards and two rushing touchdowns in eight straight games and is up to third on the MHSAA career rushing yards list with 7,353. He had 242 yards and two touchdowns in the 2013 loss to the Big Reds, who again are sound defensively and capable on offense of holding onto the ball as well.  

Others that caught my eye: Vicksburg (8-2) at Edwardsburg (9-1), Hudsonville Unity Christian (6-4) at Grand Rapids South Christian (8-2).

DIVISION 5

Almont (10-0) at Marine City (10-0)

Despite both being successful in the postseason over the last decade, these two have eluded each other with Marine City playing in Division 4. East China Stadium should be rocking with the Mariners representing the best from the Macomb Area Conference Gold and as the reigning Division 4 champion and the Raiders the champs in the Blue Water Area Conference. Almont has set a team record for scoring while averaging 53.4 points per game, and has given up only 49 with five shutouts including 65-0 over Clawson last week.

Others that caught my eye: Clare (8-2) at Freeland (9-1), Reed City (8-2) at Remus Chippewa Hills (8-2).

DIVISION 6

Madison Heights Madison (8-2) at Flint Beecher (10-0)

The winner of this game not only moves on to the Regional – it likely will be considered a favorite by at least some to end Ithaca’s nation-best 11-player winning streak of 66 games. That’s how much both of these teams have been regarded from the start of this fall, and neither has disappointed. Beecher has set a team record for wins, and Madison’s losses were to Division 2 playoff team Walled Lake Western and Division 3 qualifier Warren Woods-Tower.

Others that caught my eye: Clinton (10-0) at Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (9-1), Hillsdale (8-2) at Jackson Lumen Christi (10-0).

DIVISION 7

Iron River West Iron County (9-1) at Ishpeming (9-0)

The Hematites have turned back West Iron once during their 30-game winning streak, in last season’s District Final 34-0. And the shutouts haven’t ended, with Ishpeming blanking four of its last five opponents. But the Wykons have a chance to show how much they’ve learned since that loss last season – their only loss this fall was 8-6 to playoff team Bark River-Harris, and they looked ready enough in blanking Iron Mountain 40-0 a week ago. That said, Ishpeming also shut out Iron Mountain, 36-0 on opening night.

Others that caught my eye: Traverse City St. Francis (8-2) at Suttons Bay (9-1), Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary (9-1) at Whittemore-Prescott (10-0).

DIVISION 8

Fowler (10-0) at Muskegon Catholic Central (10-0)

These records are identical, but a Fowler win would be considered one of the recent best of that program’s storied history. MCC’s 22-game winning streak also includes a 42-0 District Final win over the Eagles last fall. Fowler has a tough runner in Austin Cook, the leading rusher in the Lansing area with more than 1,700 yards. He and his blockers might have the biggest task of an upset effort.

Others that caught my eye: Waterford Our Lady (9-1) at Harbor Beach (10-0) on Saturday, Johannesburg-Lewiston (9-1) at Beal City (8-2).

8-PLAYER

Cedarville (9-1) at Rapid River (10-0)

One of these years will be Cedarville’s year – the Trojans are 34-6 in four seasons of 8-player football – and they seemed to send a signal that this could be the one with a 39-0 win over Bellaire last week. Rapid River has always been in the way – the reigning MHSAA runner-up Rockets have won three straight over the Trojans including 20-19 in Week 6 and are 22-1 over the last two seasons.

Others Regional Finals: Kingston (7-3) at Deckerville (8-2), Morrice (6-4) at Peck (10-0), Lawrence (10-0) at Battle Creek St. Philip (9-1).

PHOTO: Calumet traveled to Harrison last week and won 30-21 to earn this week’s District Final matchup with Menominee. (Click to see more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com).