Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012
October 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.
So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:
How would you have done so differently?
And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.
This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.
Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.
Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.
Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.
There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”
Observations and answers
A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.
Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season.
No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.
The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.
Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.
And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way.
Their journeys begin Friday.
A Game for Every Fan: Week 6
October 1, 2014
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
We’ve reached October, and that means two things – league titles and lots of numbers.
We’ll cover the former by telling you which teams are winning what in our weekly Drive for Detroit reports posted each Monday. As for those piles of numbers, here are a few: Ishpeming is the first to qualify for the 2014 MHSAA playoffs because it started 5-0 and is playing eight games this season; 66 more teams have started 5-0 and can qualify with victories this weekend.
Below are some of the best games from every corner of the state, most of which will help define those league title races while giving us more numbers to crunch with playoff selection only four weeks away. (All games are Friday unless noted.)
Greater Detroit
Detroit East English (4-1) at Detroit Cass Tech (5-0), Saturday
All 16 Detroit Public School League football teams are playing in one division this season after being split into multiple the past many years. The top six contenders have begun to separate from the pack – with East English, Cass Tech and Martin Luther King the only three with perfect league records. Because of the way the schedule fell, neither East English nor Cass Tech plays King in a league game – so whichever wins this weekend’s matchup should receive a top seed in the PSL playoffs that begin Week 8. East English is a nine-point nonleague loss to Lansing Sexton from being undefeated, but hasn’t given up a point since that opening weekend defeat.
Others that caught my eye: Waterford Mott (4-1) at Walled Lake Central (4-1) on Thursday, Orchard Lake St. Mary's (5-0) at Birmingham Brother Rice (5-0), Morenci (5-0) at Clinton (5-0), Monroe (4-1) at Saline (4-1).
Mid-Michigan
DeWitt (5-0) at St. Johns (5-0)
This feels a lot like the rivals’ matchup in 2010, when DeWitt came into Week 9 undefeated and dominating everyone and left with a 49-35 loss (the Panthers went on to make the Division 3 Semifinals). Once again, the Panthers are likely considered heavy favorites despite the teams’ matching records – but St. Johns has enough speed to try to match DeWitt’s high-octane offensive attack. There’s another big difference from 2010– this time, both are in the same league, the Capital Area Activities Conference Red.
Others that caught my eye: Coldwater (5-0) at Jackson Lumen Christi (5-0) on Saturday, Stockbridge (4-1) at Olivet (4-1), Manchester (4-1) at Grass Lake (5-0), Portland (3-2) at Williamston (5-0).
Lower Up North
Ishpeming (5-0) vs. Beal City (5-0) at Gaylord
Although technically neither of these teams is from the counties of the northern Lower Peninsula, this game will be played in between them at Gaylord – and could be the most entertaining game of the weekend. Beal City has finished Division 8 runner-up the last two seasons and hasn’t given up a point in the last two games. Ishpeming has won the last two Division 7 championships and hasn’t allowed an opponent this season within 26 points.
Others that caught my eye: Gaylord (4-1) at Cadillac (5-0), Whittemore-Prescott (5-0) at Tawas (4-1), St. Ignace (5-0) at Mancelona (3-2), Petoskey (4-1) at Traverse City Central (4-1).
Southwest and Border
Niles (4-1) at Portage Central (3-1)
It’s time to give Niles a look and some credit for a solid turnaround; the Vikings are 4-1 after winning two games last season and no more than four since 2003. They did fall to Portage Northern two weeks ago – but can cement themselves as a probable playoff team and possible Southwest Michigan Athletic Conference West spoiler for some other contenders by beating reigning champion Portage Central.
Others that caught my eye: Portage Northern (4-1) at Stevensville Lakeshore (4-1), Paw Paw (3-2) at Berrien Springs (3-2), South Haven (2-3) at Edwardsburg (4-1), Buchanan (2-3) at Mendon (4-1).
West Michigan
Grand Rapids Christian (4-1) at Lowell (5-0)
The Ottawa-Kent Conference White includes these two plus a Caledonia (3-2) team that beat Rockford 42-0 last week, improved East Grand Rapids (3-2), and a Forest Hills Central team that is 1-4 but beat Caledonia and has losses to teams that are a combined 14-6. Lowell already has gotten EGR out of the way, and a win over the Eagles – 35-34 winners over the Red Arrows a year ago – would solidify its frontrunner status in arguably the state’s most competitive conference.
Others that caught my eye: East Kentwood (5-0) at Holland West Ottawa (4-1), Stanton Central Montcalm (3-2) at Remus Chippewa Hills (5-0), North Muskegon (3-2) at Ravenna (4-1), Holland Christian (2-3) at Holland (3-2).
Bay and Thumb
Saginaw Swan Valley (5-0) at Freeland (5-0)
Alex Grace is up to 994 yards rushing this fall and more than 6,100 for his three-year varsity career, and as such Swan Valley remains one of the scariest Class B teams in the state. But Freeland actually has outscored the Vikings by seven points this fall – although Swan Valley also has given up only 22 to Freeland’s 83. The last seven matchups between the two have been decided by 15 points or fewer, which could make a standout runner and his offensive line the difference-makers once again.
Others that caught my eye: Birch Run (5-0) at Frankenmuth (4-1), Warren Woods-Tower (5-0) at Marysville (3-2), Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary (4-1) at St. Charles (3-2), Lake Fenton (2-3) at Flint Beecher (5-0).
Upper Peninsula
Crystal Falls Forest Park (3-1) at Felch North Dickinson (3-2)
While these two remain in different leagues, this remains one of the best annual matchups in the Upper Peninsula. Forest Park came back from a 2012 28-point loss to North Dickinson by sweeping the Nordics in two games in 2013, including 24-20 in a Regional Final. North Dickinson also is trying to avoid losing three regular-season games for the first time since 2008. Both are playing only eight games this fall, so both need only two more wins to qualify for the postseason and the potential to face off again.
Others that caught my eye: Iron River West Iron County (5-0) at Calumet (3-2), Gladstone (3-2) at Sault Ste. Marie (2-3), Marquette (4-1) at Kingsford (2-3), Rudyard (2-3) at Munising (4-1).
8-Player
Cedarville (5-0) at Rapid River (5-0)
Lawrence (5-0) at Deckerville (5-0) on Saturday
It’s impossible to separate these two – Friday’s game matches the top two 8-player programs in the Upper Peninsula, while Saturday’s matches arguably the two best from the Lower Peninsula not including reigning MHSAA champion Peck and last week’s 89-point scorer Battle Creek St. Philip. Needless to say, the results could mean a lot when playoffs are drawn up and home teams for Regionals are assigned at the end of this month.
Others that caught my eye: Battle Creek St. Philip (5-0) at Webberville (3-2), Peck (5-0) at Kingston (3-2).
PHOTO: Detroit East English (in blue) fell to Lansing Sexton during opening weekend but hasn’t given up a point since that Saturday afternoon. (Click to see more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com).