Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012
October 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.
So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:
How would you have done so differently?
And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.
This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.
Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.
Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.
Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.
There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”
Observations and answers
A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.
Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season.
No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.
The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.
Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.
And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way.
Their journeys begin Friday.
2014 Week 6 Football Playoff Listing
September 30, 2014
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Following is a list of Michigan High School Athletic Association football playing schools, displaying their win-loss records and playoff averages through the fifth week of the season.
Schools on this list are in enrollment order for 11-player teams, with 8-player teams ordered by playoff average. An asterisk (*) beside a record indicates a team has eight or fewer games scheduled. A caret (^) beside a school’s name indicates a team is one win away from playoff qualification.
Those schools with 11-player teams with six or more wins playing nine-game schedules, or five or more wins playing eight games or fewer, will qualify for the MHSAA Football Playoffs beginning Oct. 31. Schools with 5-4, 4-3 or 4-4 records may qualify if the number of potential qualifiers by win total does not reach the 256 mark. Schools with six or more wins playing nine-game schedules or five or more wins playing eight games or fewer may be subtracted from the field based on playoff average if the number of potential qualifiers exceeds the 256 mark.
Once the 256 qualifying schools are determined, they will be divided by enrollment groups into eight equal divisions of 32 schools, and then drawn into regions of eight teams each and districts of four teams each.
Those schools with 8-player teams will be ranked by playoff average at season’s end, and the top 16 programs will be drawn into regions of eight teams each for the playoff in that division, which also begins Oct. 31.
To review a list of all football playoff schools, individual school playoff point details and to report errors, visit the Football page of the MHSAA Website.
The announcement of the qualifiers and first-round pairings for both the 11 and 8-player playoffs will take place on Oct. 26 on the Selection Sunday Show on FOX Sports Detroit. The playoff qualifiers and pairings will be posted to the MHSAA Website following the Selection Sunday Show.
11-Player Playoff Listing
1. Macomb Dakota, 2814, 4-1, 79.200
2. Sterling Heights Stevenson, 2767, 4-1, 75.400
3. Clarkston ^, 2742, 5-0, 107.200
4. Grand Blanc, 2668, 4-1, 72.600
5. East Kentwood ^, 2592, 5-0, 91.200
6. Rockford, 2555, 4-1, 82.000
7. Clinton Township Chippewa Valley, 2538, 3-2, 60.400
8. Dearborn Fordson ^, 2411, 5-0, 91.200
9. Northville, 2298, 4-1, 69.600
10. Holland West Ottawa, 2293, 4-1, 79.000
11. Canton, 2289, 4-1, 75.800
12. Detroit Cass Tech ^, 2277, 5-0, 89.600
13. Brighton, 2133, 3-2, 55.800
14. Plymouth, 2116, 4-1, 66.400
15. Lapeer ^, 2112, 5-0, 89.600
16. Utica Ford, 2090, 3-2, 53.800
17. Hartland, 2007, 4-1, 78.400
18. Monroe, 1992, 4-1, 72.800
19. Grand Haven, 1960, 3-2, 57.400
20. West Bloomfield, 1929, 4-1, 72.800
21. Westland John Glenn, 1872, 3-2, 51.000
22. Warren Mott, 1870, 3-2, 60.200
23. Oxford, 1864, 4-1, 79.200
24. Ann Arbor Pioneer, 1857, 3-2, 53.800
25. Livonia Stevenson, 1848, 3-2, 49.000
26. Saline, 1844, 4-1, 77.933
27. Walled Lake Central, 1815, 4-1, 74.200
28. Romeo, 1770, 3-2, 58.400
29. Hudsonville, 1759, 3-2, 57.200
30. Waterford Mott, 1738, 4-1, 76.000
31. Rochester Hills Stoney Creek, 1711, 3-2, 55.800
32. Livonia Churchill ^, 1696, 5-0, 97.600
33. Grand Ledge, 1689, 3-2, 55.800
34. Waterford Kettering, 1610, 3-2, 52.400
35. Flint Carman-Ainsworth, 1568, 4-1, 70.800
36. Warren DeLaSalle, 1562, 3-2, 47.467
37. Detroit Western International, 1521, 3-2, 45.400
38. Detroit Martin Luther King ^, 1507, 5-0, 96.000
39. Walled Lake Western, 1502, 4-1, 72.600
40. Traverse City Central, 1490, 4-1, 78.600
41. Oak Park, 1486, 4-1, 74.400
42. Brownstown Woodhaven ^, 1484, 5-0, 96.000
43. Ypsilanti Lincoln, 1422, 3-2, 52.000
44. Caledonia, 1417, 3-2, 58.200
45. Midland, 1400, 3-2, 51.800
46. Portage Central *, 1384, 3-1, 63.000
47. Detroit Pershing, 1379, 3-2, 44.600
48. Southgate Anderson, 1374, 3-2, 50.800
49. Lansing Everett, 1364, 3-2, 53.800
50. Dearborn Edsel Ford, 1356, 3-2, 55.000
51. Wyandotte Roosevelt, 1351, 4-1, 75.800
52. Detroit East English, 1345, 4-1, 72.800
53. Portage Northern, 1345, 4-1, 78.400
54. Port Huron, 1336, 4-1, 79.200
55. Grosse Pointe North, 1310, 3-2, 58.400
56. Ypsilanti Community, 1300, 3-2, 56.600
57. Birmingham Brother Rice ^, 1298, 5-0, 97.600
58. North Farmington, 1296, 3-2, 50.200
59. Garden City, 1290, 3-2, 44.600
60. Battle Creek Lakeview *, 1278, 3-1, 75.000
61. Grand Rapids Ottawa Hills, 1275, 3-2, 47.200
62. Muskegon Mona Shores, 1274, 4-1, 82.200
63. Bay City Central, 1271, 3-2, 49.200
64. Birmingham Groves ^, 1270, 5-0, 86.400
65. Berkley ^, 1265, 5-0, 86.400
66. Flushing, 1260, 4-1, 78.600
67. Midland Dow ^, 1255, 5-0, 91.200
68. South Lyon ^, 1254, 5-0, 99.200
69. Southfield, 1239, 3-2, 57.400
70. Farmington Hills Harrison, 1212, 4-1, 79.000
71. Fenton ^, 1181, 5-0, 96.000
72. Farmington, 1178, 4-1, 72.600
73. Grand Rapids Northview, 1177, 3-2, 52.400
74. Warren Woods Tower ^, 1175, 5-0, 88.000
75. Muskegon ^, 1157, 5-0, 97.600
76. Lowell ^, 1145, 5-0, 86.400
77. Detroit Renaissance, 1144, 3-2, 45.800
78. Greenville, 1130, 4-1, 62.600
79. Gibraltar Carlson, 1129, 3-2, 52.600
80. Battle Creek Central, 1124, 3-2, 50.700
81. Grand Rapids Forest Hills Northern ^, 1113, 5-0, 86.400
82. Holland, 1109, 3-2, 52.000
83. Detroit Cody, 1096, 3-2, 44.400
84. Marquette, 1090, 4-1, 65.933
85. St. Johns ^, 1088, 5-0, 89.600
86. Byron Center, 1085, 4-1, 72.800
87. Allen Park, 1069, 4-1, 74.400
88. Auburn Hills Avondale, 1056, 3-2, 49.400
89. Orchard Lake St. Mary's ^, 1054, 5-0, 94.400
90. Mt. Pleasant, 1050, 3-2, 60.800
91. St. Joseph, 1028, 3-2, 58.600
92. East Grand Rapids, 986, 3-2, 57.600
93. Petoskey, 965, 4-1, 66.400
94. Trenton, 955, 3-2, 54.000
95. Romulus, 950, 4-1, 56.600
96. Riverview, 935, 4-1, 69.400
97. DeWitt ^, 930, 5-0, 91.200
98. Gaylord, 927, 4-1, 63.000
99. Linden, 921, 3-2, 51.000
100. Detroit Mumford, 919, 3-2, 47.400
101. Clio, 918, 3-2, 50.400
102. Cedar Springs, 910, 4-1, 65.800
103. Grand Rapids Christian, 895, 4-1, 74.400
104. Stevensville Lakeshore, 887, 4-1, 81.700
105. Niles, 885, 4-1, 66.200
106. Carleton Airport, 879, 3-2, 44.600
107. Coldwater ^, 876, 5-0, 70.400
108. Tecumseh, 869, 3-2, 57.200
109. New Boston Huron, 867, 4-1, 71.200
110. Warren Fitzgerald, 857, 3-2, 49.000
111. Zeeland West ^, 850, 5-0, 80.000
112. Dearborn Divine Child, 848, 4-1, 63.600
113. Bay City John Glenn, 847, 3-2, 43.200
114. Battle Creek Harper Creek, 845, 3-2, 44.400
115. St. Clair, 844, 4-1, 68.000
116. Edwardsburg, 839, 4-1, 67.800
117. Chelsea, 838, 4-1, 74.000
118. Detroit Old Redford, 837, 3-2, 44.000
119. Plainwell, 812, 4-1, 66.200
120. Marysville, 806, 3-2, 52.600
121. Spring Lake, 802, 3-2, 49.200
122. Detroit Denby, 800, 3-2, 58.800
123. Vicksburg, 794, 4-1, 67.800
124. Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook-Kingswood, 790, 3-2, 41.000
125. Eaton Rapids, 773, 3-2, 45.800
126. Cadillac ^, 747, 5-0, 88.000
127. Goodrich, 737, 4-1, 68.000
128. Three Rivers, 722, 3-2, 50.600
129. Dearborn Heights Robichaud ^, 717, 5-0, 75.600
130. Yale, 716, 4-1, 56.600
131. Harper Woods Chandler Park Academy, 691, 3-2, 52.200
132. Detroit Country Day, 690, 3-2, 51.200
133. Muskegon Orchard View, 662, 4-1, 58.000
134. Williamston ^, 659, 5-0, 80.000
135. Paw Paw, 657, 3-2, 47.600
136. Lansing Sexton ^, 652, 5-0, 102.400
137. Whitehall ^, 644, 5-0, 70.400
138. Grosse Ile, 640, 3-2, 46.200
139. Kalamazoo Hackett, 635, 4-1, 54.800
140. Richmond, 630, 4-1, 69.600
141. Grand Rapids South Christian, 623, 3-2, 49.000
142. Wyoming Kelloggsville, 610, 3-2, 44.600
143. Wyoming Godwin Heights, 609, 4-1, 49.800
144. Saginaw Swan Valley ^, 602, 5-0, 70.400
145. Clawson, 589, 3-2, 40.800
146. North Muskegon, 577, 3-2, 38.200
147. Birch Run ^, 575, 5-0, 72.000
148. Remus Chippewa Hills ^, 567, 5-0, 81.600
149. Flint Powers Catholic, 553, 3-2, 57.400
150. Marine City ^, 553, 5-0, 78.400
151. Freeland ^, 549, 5-0, 78.400
152. Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard, 545, 4-1, 53.600
153. Stanton Central Montcalm, 539, 3-2, 44.200
154. Portland, 538, 3-2, 50.800
155. Menominee ^, 532, 5-0, 83.867
156. Detroit University Prep, 530, 3-2, 46.000
157. River Rouge, 530, 4-1, 67.200
158. Frankenmuth, 528, 4-1, 60.000
159. Gladwin, 528, 4-1, 55.200
160. Ida ^, 527, 5-0, 70.400
161. Hopkins, 522, 4-1, 61.400
162. Grayling, 517, 3-2, 40.850
163. Lansing Catholic ^, 515, 5-0, 80.000
164. Almont ^, 512, 5-0, 73.600
165. Carrollton, 511, 3-2, 37.400
166. Newaygo, 506, 4-1, 61.600
167. Olivet, 505, 4-1, 53.000
168. Berrien Springs, 501, 3-2, 43.800
169. Muskegon Oakridge, 501, 4-1, 55.200
170. Onsted, 499, 4-1, 45.600
171. Chesaning, 480, 4-1, 56.800
172. Manistee, 479, 4-1, 53.400
173. Gladstone, 473, 3-2, 35.000
174. Stockbridge, 462, 4-1, 58.200
175. Reed City, 461, 4-1, 56.600
176. Leslie, 454, 3-2, 37.800
177. Clare, 445, 3-2, 43.200
178. Harrison ^, 444, 5-0, 62.400
179. Kingsley, 439, 3-2, 39.600
180. Grand Rapids West Catholic ^, 438, 5-0, 83.200
181. Lakeview, 426, 4-1, 48.000
182. Beaverton, 422, 3-2, 36.200
183. Calumet, 419, 3-2, 48.133
184. Jonesville, 419, 3-2, 39.800
185. Jackson Lumen Christi ^, 417, 5-0, 76.800
186. Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central ^, 417, 5-0, 84.800
187. Negaunee, 417, 3-2, 36.000
188. Millington ^, 414, 5-0, 76.800
189. Warren Michigan Collegiate ^, 414, 5-0, 72.000
190. Fennville, 407, 3-2, 34.600
191. Ithaca ^, 405, 5-0, 72.000
192. Sanford Meridian Early College, 404, 4-1, 45.200
193. Hillsdale, 401, 4-1, 52.000
194. Hanover-Horton, 399, 4-1, 40.600
195. Boyne City ^, 395, 5-0, 65.600
196. Grass Lake ^, 395, 5-0, 56.000
197. Madison Heights Madison, 393, 4-1, 71.200
198. Montrose, 392, 4-1, 53.400
199. Tawas, 385, 4-1, 54.800
200. Elk Rapids, 384, 3-2, 43.000
201. Niles Brandywine, 383, 4-1, 57.800
202. Manchester, 379, 4-1, 55.200
203. Watervliet, 378, 4-1, 47.000
204. Quincy, 375, 3-2, 28.400
205. Vassar, 375, 3-2, 36.800
206. St. Charles, 373, 3-2, 46.200
207. Bad Axe, 371, 3-2, 38.200
208. Constantine ^, 371, 5-0, 66.000
209. Clinton ^, 367, 5-0, 65.600
210. Vandercook Lake, 366, 4-1, 42.200
211. Laingsburg, 361, 4-1, 48.800
212. Schoolcraft, 361, 3-2, 48.400
213. Flint Beecher ^, 350, 5-0, 73.600
214. Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian, 347, 4-1, 55.000
215. Kent City, 344, 3-2, 34.600
216. Leroy Pine River, 343, 3-2, 41.400
217. Ravenna, 342, 4-1, 48.600
218. Carson City-Crystal, 330, 3-2, 36.000
219. Bridgman *, 327, 3-1, 48.600
220. Ishpeming Westwood, 318, 3-2, 33.200
221. Marlette, 316, 4-1, 49.800
222. Homer ^, 312, 5-0, 57.600
223. Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker ^, 308, 5-0, 62.400
224. Ishpeming *, 307, 5-0, 68.800
225. Traverse City St. Francis, 305, 3-2, 41.600
226. Burton Atherton, 304, 4-1, 53.600
227. Pewamo-Westphalia, 302, 4-1, 45.400
228. Dansville, 301, 3-2, 41.400
229. Gobles, 301, 4-1, 55.200
230. Iron Mountain, 298, 3-2, 40.000
231. Riverview Gabriel Richard, 297, 3-2, 49.400
232. Flint Hamady, 295, 4-1, 42.200
233. Union City ^, 294, 5-0, 56.000
234. Rochester Hills Lutheran Northwest, 289, 3-2, 36.400
235. Ecorse, 288, 3-2, 38.800
236. Whittemore-Prescott ^, 283, 5-0, 67.200
237. Mancelona, 282, 3-2, 28.400
238. Saugatuck, 281, 3-2, 38.200
239. Detroit Loyola ^, 278, 5-0, 85.200
240. Manton, 276, 3-2, 34.600
241. Royal Oak Shrine Catholic, 273, 4-1, 49.800
242. Hudson, 271, 4-1, 45.600
243. Grosse Pointe Woods University Liggett, 270, 4-1, 48.600
244. Decatur ^, 262, 5-0, 70.400
245. Lincoln Alcona, 260, 3-2, 35.000
246. Iron River West Iron County ^, 259, 5-0, 67.200
247. New Lothrop ^, 259, 5-0, 68.800
248. Blanchard Montabella, 256, 4-1, 48.200
249. Breckenridge, 247, 3-2, 38.000
250. Reading, 246, 3-2, 33.200
251. Norway, 244, 3-2, 32.767
252. Onekama, 244, 3-2, 28.400
253. Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary, 243, 4-1, 48.800
254. Suttons Bay, 243, 4-1, 51.050
255. Indian River Inland Lakes, 242, 4-1, 42.400
256. Ottawa Lake Whiteford, 238, 3-2, 34.800
257. Johannesburg-Lewiston, 237, 4-1, 44.000
258. Petersburg-Summerfield, 233, 3-2, 38.400
259. Harbor Beach ^, 232, 5-0, 65.600
260. Bessemer *, 231, 3-2, 28.467
261. L'Anse, 230, 3-2, 36.600
262. White Pigeon, 226, 3-2, 35.700
263. Beal City ^, 222, 5-0, 68.800
264. Lutheran Westland, 221, 4-1, 50.200
265. Coleman, 217, 4-1, 45.800
266. Mendon, 214, 4-1, 51.800
267. St. Ignace ^, 211, 5-0, 59.200
268. Pittsford, 205, 4-1, 36.800
269. Bark River-Harris, 194, 4-1, 37.300
270. Munising, 194, 4-1, 41.200
271. Central Lake, 190, 3-2, 28.600
272. Fowler ^, 189, 5-0, 62.400
273. Morenci ^, 184, 5-0, 67.200
274. Muskegon Catholic Central ^, 183, 5-0, 81.600
275. Sterling Heights Parkway Christian, 171, 3-2, 40.800