Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012
October 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.
So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:
How would you have done so differently?
And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.
This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.
Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.
Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.
Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.
There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”
Observations and answers
A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.
Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season.
No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.
The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.
Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.
And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way.
Their journeys begin Friday.
Drive for Detroit: Week 3 in Review
September 15, 2014
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Yes, it's only mid-September. We've got a long way to go in this MHSAA football season.
But there were a number of games played during Week 3 that should impact significantly how league races unfold through the end of the October.
A few you won't read about below but are worth including: Mason County Central ended a seven-game losing streak to Shelby with a 12-6 win and could make some noise in the West Michigan D. Newaygo beat annual favorite Reed City, 14-6, for the first time as a member of the Central State Activities Association and could now be the favorite in the new Gold division.
And those are just scratches on the surface; read on for more that should provide lasting impact this fall.
West Michigan
Lowell 30, East Grand Rapids 25
Make no mistake – East Grand Rapids (2-1) is back after two non-playoff seasons, and despite falling in this heartbreaker Friday. The Red Arrows (3-0) went ahead for good during the final minutes on Max Dean’s fourth touchdown of the night. Life doesn’t get easier for either team – East Grand Rapids faces Muskegon next and both play in the highly-competitive O-K White. But it’s tough to imagine a better way to kick off the league schedule. Click to read more from the Grand Rapids Press.
Also noted:
Rockford 10, Muskegon Mona Shores 7 – In two years, Mona Shores (2-1) has gone from sub-.500 to first-time playoff qualifier and now competitor with an elite program in Rockford (3-0).
Grand Rapids South Christian 33, Hudsonville Unity Christian 30 (OT) – The Sailors (1-2) have had a tough start against tough competition, but finally broke through against the improved Crusaders (2-1).
Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 31, Caledonia 19 – After also opening with two tough losses, Forest Hills Central (1-2) got in the win column against a Caledonia (2-1) team that had been one of the state’s most impressive early.
Greenville 36, Comstock Park 16 – Greenville (2-1) is off to its best start since 2011, impressive all the more after beating Comstock Park (1-2), winners of 22 of its last 24 regular-season games.
Southwest and Border
Watervliet 18, Mendon 13
Even after winning 10 games two of the last three seasons, Watervliet probably was a passing thought for most in this game given Mendon’s 35-game regular-season winning streak. In fact, the Hornets hadn’t lost a regular-season game to an in-state opponent since 2006 – that 2010 loss was to Edgerton, Ohio. Mendon (2-1) was undermanned a bit – eight seniors did not play – but that shouldn’t take away from a huge victory for the Panthers (2-1). Click to read more from the St. Joseph Herald-Palladium.
Also noted:
Stevensville Lakeshore 20, Portage Central 17 – Lakeshore (3-0) handed Portage Central (1-1) its first regular-season loss since Week 8 of 2012.
St. Joseph 17, Portage Northern 7 – Knocking off solid Portage Northern (2-1) makes the Bears (3-0) early favorites with Lakeshore in the always-tough Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference West.
Vicksburg 16, Edwardsburg 14 – The Bulldogs (3-0), coming off two straight sub-.500 seasons, beat Edwardsburg (2-1) after losing by a combined score of 81-27 over the last two meetings.
Coldwater 35, Battle Creek Pennfield 6 – The Cardinals (3-0) made the playoffs last season, for the first time ever, with an at-large bid at 5-4. But they are halfway to automatic qualification after dealing perennial playoff team Pennfield (0-3) another disappointment.
Bay and Thumb
Montrose 27, Lake Fenton 12
The Rams (3-0) ran their Genesee Area Conference Red winning streak to 22 and set back again Lake Fenton (1-2), league runner-up to Montrose the last two seasons. Lake Fenton stood within two points of the lead in the third quarter before the Rams pulled away. The last league team to beat Montrose was Flint Beecher, this season’s Week 8 opponent. Click to read more from the Flint Journal.
Also noted:
Flint Carman-Ainsworth 31, Davison 8 – The Cavaliers (2-1) came back from their Week 2 one-point heart-breaking loss to Mount Pleasant by beating former league rival Davison (1-2) for the fifth straight time.
Flint Southwestern 58, Saginaw 8 – The Knights (2-1) equaled their win total of the last three seasons and can equal their most since 2008 with another victory; Saginaw fell to 0-3.
Marlette 51, Reese 34 – Marlette’s Connor Thomas, a member of the MHSAA Student Advisory Council, ran for 217 yards and four touchdowns and also caught a touchdown pass as the Raiders moved to 2-1 and Reese fell to 1-2.
St. Clair 32, Sterling Heights 31 – Sterling Heights (0-3) won only once in 2013, but nearly pulled off its best victory in at least a few years as the Saints (2-1) had to come back in the fourth quarter riding the strength of four rushing touchdowns from Larry Ochadleus.
Lower Up North
Traverse City Central 20, Traverse City West 13
Central (3-0) got some revenge after last season’s three-point overtime loss that played a part in the Trojans missing the playoffs. West (1-2) may still own a 12-6 advantage in their series, but Central definitely has the upper hand in this season’s Big North Conference race although it’s only one game old for both. Click to read more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.
Also noted:
Cadillac 27, Petoskey 7 – Cadillac (3-0) kicked off the Big North Conference season by handing a first loss to Petoskey (2-1) and keeping up a defensive effort allowing only nine points per game.
Maple City Glen Lake 15, Grayling 8 – The Lakers (2-0) have tough opponents lined up for at least the next five weeks but should contend, while Grayling (1-2) now is forced to bounce back to extend its five-season playoff streak.
Lincoln Alcona 22, Rogers City 6 – Alcona (3-0) quietly has won 15 straight regular-season games, with this one impressive as Rogers City (2-1) appears in the midst of turning things around after four straight sub.-500 finishes.
Cheboygan 13, Escanaba 12 – The Chiefs (1-2) were off to a rough start after two straight playoff seasons, but took a first step toward extending the streak while dropping Escanaba to 1-2.
Upper Peninsula
Gladstone 24, Negaunee 19
Although Gladstone started with two wins this fall after going 0-9 two of the last three seasons, it was fair to assume the Braves’ success would come to a quick end with Negaunee followed by the Great Northern U.P. Conference schedule. It’s time to rethink that assumption. Not only is Gladstone 3-0 for the first time since 2009, but got there by beating a Miners team that also started 2-0 and won 10 games each of the last two seasons. Click to read more from the Escanaba Daily Press.
Also noted:
Hurley, Wis. 18, Crystal Falls Forest Park 14 – Hurley (4-0) is one of the top-ranked small schools in Wisconsin, and beating Forest Park (2-1) no doubt will help that cause in addition to giving Hurley a huge advantage in the Great Western Conference race.
Ishpeming Westwood 48, Rudyard 0 – This wouldn’t usually register except that Westwood (3-0) won two games total in 2013 and three in 2012; Rudyard (0-3) is hoping for a quick turnaround.
Lake Linden-Hubbell 33, L’Anse 20 – The Lakes (2-1) avenged last season’s 52-34 playoff-opener loss to the Hornets (1-2).
Menominee 37, Pontiac Notre Dame Prep 23 – We love when our best from the Upper Peninsula get together with tough teams from downstate, and this was a great way for the Maroons (3-0) to prepare for their Great Northern U.P. Conference schedule while giving Notre Dame Prep (1-2) another competitive nonleague game.
Mid-Michigan
Lansing Sexton 32, Grand Ledge 21
Although the league opener, this could end up one of the most important games in the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue this season if not the championship decider. Sexton (3-0) has yet to play a home game this season but has continued to build an impressive resume adding the Comets to Detroit East English and Monroe among those defeated so far. Grand Ledge (1-2) made a run at the lead during the second half but couldn’t climb back after Sexton went up three scores during the second quarter. Click to read more from the Lansing State Journal.
Also noted:
Okemos 23, Lansing Everett 13 – The Chieftains (2-1) are looking like contenders in the CAAC Blue as well although a difficult early slate gets tougher with Grand Ledge and Sexton next; Everett (1-2) will attempt to bounce back against Holt.
Jackson Lumen Christi 34, Battle Creek Harper Creek 14 – These two have looked like favorites in the first-year Interstate 8 Athletic Conference, although Lumen Christi (3-0) remains undefeated and Harper Creek (1-2) must bounce back from a tough start.
St. Johns 28, Haslett 13 – The Redwings (3-0) are one of the surprises in the CAAC Red and best teams from the Lansing area, while Haslett (1-2) is working to stay in contention in the competitive league.
Ithaca 33, Saginaw Michigan Lutheran Seminary 14 – This was a little more of a scare than Ithaca (3-0) has had in a while, as the Yellowjackets trailed MLS (2-1) by a point at halftime.
Greater Detroit
Brownstown Woodhaven 42, Allen Park 35 (OT)
Woodhaven (3-0) came out ahead in another close Downriver League battle, this time in overtime after beating Southgate Anderson by two in Week 2. The Warriors need only one more win to equal last season’s finish and already have avenged three of those 2013 losses. Always-solid Allen Park is still there despite falling to 2-1. Click to read more from the Detroit Free Press.
Also noted:
Macomb Dakota 35, Warren Mott 7 – Dakota (2-1) is laying a strong early claim on the Macomb Area Red title, with Mott (2-1) previously expected to be a contender but now facing an uphill battle.
Sterling Heights Stevenson 21, Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 7 – This changes up the MAC Red race as well with Chippewa Valley (1-2) formerly a contender and Stevenson (2-1) now an intriguing possibility despite a Week 2 loss to Utica Eisenhower.
Oak Park 27, Farmington Hills Harrison 0 – The right to challenge Southfield in the Oakland Activities Association White belongs firmly to Oak Park (2-1), which hasn’t given up a point since Week 1 and dropped Harrison to 2-1 as well.
Clinton 54, Ottawa Lake Whiteford 30 – Whiteford (2-1) might’ve been the biggest obstacle as Clinton (3-0) goes for a third straight 9-0 regular season.
8-Player
Portland St. Patrick 27, Waldron 6
The Shamrocks (3-0) have the highest playoff point average in 8-player thanks in part to handing Waldron (2-1) its first loss. The victory also made Portland St. Patrick 21-4 since moving to 8-player football in 2012 – and continued an impressive defensive effort this fall as the team is giving up only eight points per game. Click to read more from the Hillsdale Daily News.
Also noted:
Rapid River 36, Ontonagon 22 – Although Ontonagon (0-2) is new to 8-player football, it gave Rapid River (3-0) its closest regular-season game since Week 9 of 2012.
Deckerville 66, Carsonville-Port Sanilac 13 – The Eagles (3-0) added to their recent dominance of rival CPS (0-3) with their second-most points in three seasons of 8-player ball.
PHOTO: Lowell charges toward the end zone during its 30-25 come-from-behind win over East Grand Rapids on Friday. (Click to see more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com).