Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012
October 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.
So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:
How would you have done so differently?
And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.
This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.
Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.
Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.
Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.
There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”
Observations and answers
A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.
Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season.
No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.
The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.
Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.
And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way.
Their journeys begin Friday.
A Game for Every Fan: Week 8
October 18, 2013
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Week 8 of the high school football season can mean a lot of things to teams and communities, depending on one’s circumstances.
On one side of the scale, those that have been eliminated from playoff contention are hoping to finish on a positive note and send out their seniors with one last memory. On the other, there are 61 undefeated teams left in Michigan – and 12 face off in six of our best games this week.
There’s definitely a challenge in forecasting which from this week’s slate might end up the most significant when all is said and done. In fact, a number of Detroit-area games not mentioned below are worth mentioning now: Detroit Martin Luther King (6-0) faces Detroit Mumford (6-1) and Detroit Cass Tech (7-0) faces Detroit East English (5-2) in Detroit Public School League semifinals, and Northville (6-1) faces Canton (7-0) with Grand Blanc (6-1) at Walled Lake Western (7-0) in Kensington Lakes Activities Association semis. In the Detroit Catholic League, second-placers Detroit Catholic Central (6-1) and Warren DeLaSalle (5-2) face off Saturday with a Prep Bowl berth on the line.
See below for more from an incredible statewide slate of games this weekend, and remember to check the MHSAA Score Center all weekend for updated scores and standings.
Southwest and Border
Portage Central (7-0) at St. Joseph (7-0)
Although St. Joseph still must face a competitive Mattawan squad in Week 9, the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference West probably comes down to this matchup. Portage Central’s totals this fall certainly are more impressive – 326 points for and 83 against, while St. Joseph has outscored opponents only 201-103 – but because of its strong nonleague slate, St. Joseph projects to have the second-highest playoff point average in Division 3 (Portage Central currently falls sixth among teams expected to be in Division 2).
Others that caught my eye: Battle Creek Harper Creek (6-1) at Battle Creek Lakeview (7-0), Decatur (5-2) at Watervliet (7-0), Dowagiac (6-1) at Edwardsburg (7-0), Otsego (5-2) at Paw Paw (7-0).
Greater Detroit and Southeast
Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (7-0) at Macomb Dakota (7-0)
Twitter followers of @DakotaFootball got a feel for this game Thursday from a few selected re-tweets from players, including one that read: “Tomorrow is the biggest game of our lives.” Dakota, during its nearly two-decade history, has lots of experience in these types of games – the winner tonight will claim the Macomb Area Conference Red title outright – and Chippewa Valley and Dakota have the second and third-highest playoff point averages, respectively, among teams expected to be in Division 1. This is the first time in a decade the Big Reds have been in this spot, and if they can crack Dakota’s defense (35 points allowed this fall), it could be another classic.
Others that caught my eye: St. Clair (7-0) at Marine City (7-0), Birmingham Groves (7-0) at Birmingham Seaholm (7-0), Lake Orion (6-1) at Clarkston (6-1), Warren Michigan Collegiate (5-2) at Harper Woods Chandler Park (6-1).
Lower Up North
Elk Rapids (5-2) at Boyne City (6-1)
Both co-leaders of the Lake Michigan Conference have tough matchups this week, but Elk Rapids being third in the league gives this game a potentially heavier impact. Boyne City faces Grayling in Week 9 in a game that should decide the league title – both are 4-0 in LMC play heading into this weekend – but Elk Rapids definitely could throw a wrench and did beat the Ramblers in two straight before falling last fall.
Others that caught my eye: Lake City (6-1) at Evart (6-1), West Branch Ogemaw Heights (5-2) at Traverse City Central (4-3), Sault Ste. Marie (4-3) at Kingsley (5-2), Grayling (6-1) at East Jordan (4-3).
Mid-Michigan
Lansing Sexton (7-0) at Lansing Everett (5-2)
Those who don’t follow Lansing-area football closely probably don’t realize that Sexton, with roughly 680 students, is slightly more than one-third the size of the biggest schools in the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue – and pushed to rejoin the league with its traditional rivals after a few years playing in other divisions. That makes this Big Reds run even more impressive – although Everett would love to keep their rivals from celebrating a league title this week. The Vikings looked like favorites coming into the fall, and this one could be closer than some might expect.
Others that caught my eye: Portland (7-0) at DeWitt (7-0), Battle Creek St. Philip (7-0) at Portland St. Patrick (7-0), Constantine (5-2) at Olivet (6-1), Haslett (5-2) at Williamston (4-3).
West Michigan
Grand Rapids Christian (6-1) at Lowell (7-0)
Lowell’s wild October run through the rest of the O-K White contenders ends tonight in the likely league-deciding matchup against Grand Rapids Christian, which like the Red Arrows is 3-0 in the division. Lowell’s strong competition has paid off not just in preparation for games like this, but in helping the Red Arrows build the highest playoff point average in the MHSAA. Only Muskegon during Week 2 has tripped up the Eagles (Lowell beat Muskegon two weeks later), who continue to await the season debut of injured star receiver Drake Harris.
Others that caught my eye: Muskegon Reeths-Puffer (6-1) at Muskegon Mona Shores (6-1), East Grand Rapids (4-3) at Caledonia (5-2), Muskegon Catholic Central (5-2) at Fruitport (5-2), Holland Christian (4-3) at Byron Center (5-2).
Bay and Thumb
Marlette (7-0) at Harbor Beach (6-1)
It’s fair to say this is turning into Marlette’s best season ever – or at least since the Red Raiders went 8-1 in 1975. And it would become infinitely sweeter if they are able to beat defending MHSAA Division 8 champion Harbor Beach to win the Greater Thumb Conference East title. Harbor Beach is riding a 15-game league winning streak and owns two straight wins over Marlette, including by a score of 66-10 a year ago. The Pirates’ only loss this season was in Week 3 to much larger Menominee.
Others that caught my eye: Fenton (7-0) at Swartz Creek (4-3), Richmond (6-1) at Yale (5-2), Deckerville (4-3) at Peck (7-0), Vassar (4-3) at Cass City (4-3).
Upper Peninsula
Bessemer (5-2) at Crystal Falls Forest Park (7-0)
This scenario bears similarity to 2012; Forest Park was cruising through the Great Western Conference before getting run over by Bessemer 46-15 in Week 8, a result that created an eventual three-team sharing of the league title. Forest Park is 3-0 in the league again. And while Bessemer at 2-2 in the conference has only an outside shot at sharing the title this time, the Miners have come back from a midseason two-game losing streak to get within a win of qualifying for the playoffs for the second season in a row.
Others that caught my eye: Lake Linden-Hubbell (4-3) at Felch North Dickinson (6-1), Marquette (5-1) at Negaunee (6-1), Bellaire (5-2) at Cedarville (6-1), Hancock (3-4) at Iron River West County (7-0).
PHOTO: Detroit Catholic Central (in blue), here during a Sept. 27 loss to Birmingham Brother Rice, faces Warren DeLaSalle this week for the opportunity to face Brother Rice again in next weekend’s Detroit Catholic League Prep Bowl. (Click to see more from High School Sports Scene.)