Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012
October 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.
So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:
How would you have done so differently?
And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.
This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.
Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.
Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.
Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.
There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”
Observations and answers
A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.
Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season.
No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.
The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.
Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.
And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way.
Their journeys begin Friday.
Portland Makes Right Moves for March
November 29, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Dylan Carroll and Adam Goodman knew the request was coming long before coach John Novara asked them to make a big change for their senior seasons on the Portland football team.
The writing was on the scale, so to say. At 6-foot-5 and 230 pounds, Carroll was among the three most sizable players on the Raiders’ roster this fall. And Goodman, at a solid 6-0, 200, wasn't far behind.
Still, it’s fair to assume not a lot of players want to trade in the opportunity to carry the ball for a jersey in the 50s. But Novara had no choice but to ask; he needed two new guards, and the best fits were tight end Carroll and the fullback, Goodman.
“At first, it was block, block, block. But after that, you get to pancake guys when you pull. Especially in this offense, guard is one of the best positions that we run,” Goodman said. “At first, it wasn't so exciting. But after that, it’s the best position. I would've played it all four years if I’d had the chance.”
Their one season on the line helped the Raiders produce unprecedented results.
Portland gets a Second Half High 5 this week after finishing a 13-1 season with its first trip to the MHSAA Finals – and first championship, thanks to a 12-9 win over Grand Rapids West Catholic.
The Raiders won in the same way they've made the playoffs every season over the last decade – with a mix of physical play up front, tough running and stout defense. That style often has been made possible by big bodies up front – a standout or two like alum and recently-graduated Eastern Michigan University 300-pounder Bridger Buche have been more the usual than occasional for Portland of late.
Not this season. For the Raiders to win again like they always have, it took the sacrifices of a couple smaller but just as tough seniors to be the catalysts.
“I think that was one of the keys to our success, offensively,” Novara said. “They graciously moved there. Without them moving to guards, I don’t know that we could've done this.”
Portland scored 500 points this season, likely its most ever (Michigan-football.com records date back to 1950). No other Raiders team had scored even 400.
Carroll and Goodman also were two of only three Portland players who pulled double duty, with Carroll also a starting defensive end and Goodman a starting linebacker. They helped key a defense that gave up just 13 points per game.
That defense gave up more than 14 points only once during the regular season – in a 41-32 loss to 2011 Division 5 runner-up Lansing Catholic. It gave up more than 20 twice in the playoffs, but hung on when it counted in a 45-28 win over reigning champion Flint Powers Catholic in the Regional Final and then the next week in a 28-23 nail-biter against Ann Arbor Gabriel Richard.
Portland scored all of its points of the MHSAA Final during the game's first 15 minutes. But the defense came up with three interceptions and two turnovers on downs, plus blocked a field goal attempt. The Raiders ended West Catholic’s final drive with a fourth-down stop on their 12-yard-line.
“The defense had been there all season, and we were just happy to make that one last play to win a state championship,” Goodman said.
And if he and Carroll’s moves to the offensive line hadn't been worth it completely before, they certainly became so that afternoon. As Carroll said after, he and most of his teammates are three-sport athletes who grew up together in their small town midway between Lansing and Grand Rapids. A position change hardly qualified as a sacrifice for an opportunity like this.
“I wasn't going to go out without a state championship this year. Our seniors deserved it,” Carroll said.
“We kept our mouths shut. We did whatever was best for the team, and we still worked as hard as we could this summer. It was well worth it.”
PHOTO: Portland linemen Adam Goodman (52) and Dylan Carroll (54) lead the way for teammate Auston Brandt during Saturday's Division 5 Final at Ford Field. (Click for more from Terry McNamara Photography.)