Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012

October 24, 2012

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.

So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:

How would you have done so differently?

And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.

This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.

Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.

Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.

Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.

There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”

Observations and answers

A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.

Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season. 

No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.

The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.

Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.

And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way. 

Their journeys begin Friday.

8-Player Powers Converge in Greenville

November 15, 2012

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Friday’s second-ever MHSAA 8-player football championship game will feature teams representing different stages of the new division’s development.

Coming down from the north is Bellaire, one of the first schools to jump on the new format in 2009 and a major success since doing so. Traveling west from the Thumb is Deckerville, a solid 11-player program in years past that has gotten smaller over the last decade and made the switch this fall.

Together, they should bring an exciting conclusion to the 8-player season at Greenville High School’s recently-built Legacy Field, a tremendous structure comparable to a small college stadium.

Tickets for the 8-player Final cost $8. Can’t make the trip? Watch it live on Fox Sports Detroit Plus (Comcast channel 901, check local listings for other providers). Kickoff is 7 p.m.

Here’s a look at the teams squaring off:

BELLAIRE
Record:
 9-3
Coach: Ron Bindi, fifth season (25-24)
League finish: Fourth in Bridge Alliance Conference
Championship history: Has never appeared in an MHSAA Final.
Best wins: 28-16 and 20-16 (Semifinal) over Rapid River, 48-0 over Owendale-Gagetown (Regional Final).
Players to watch: RB/CB Chase Small, 5-8/170, soph. (185 carries, 1,574 yards, 24 TDs rushing); QB Zach Smith, 5-11/158, sr. (29 for 73, 676 yards, 7 TDs passing; 389 yards, 15 TDs rushing); OL/DL Drew Bailey, 6-4/200, sr. (73 tackles), LB/C James Campis, 5-10/195, jr. (171 tackles), SE/CB Wes Villafane, 5-8/151, sr. (14 caches, 514 yards, five TDs, four interceptions).
Outlook: After finishing a combined 1-16 in its final two seasons in 11-player football, Bellaire is 23-8 since making the switch. The Eagles’ quick start included representing their conference against Mid-Michigan 8-Man League winner Carsonville Port-Sanilac in a non-MHSAA championship game at the end of the first 8-player season. This year’s team started 0-2 before hitting its stride. There’s no question Bellaire is a running team, with 3,413 rushing yards this fall led by Small’s 1,574. The team has thrown for 823 yards, with Villafane catching nearly half the team’s passes. Campis and junior Hunter Walsh are the big hitters for a defense giving up only seven points per game during the postseason.

DECKERVILLE
Record/rank:
 11-1
Coach: Bill Brown, 20th season (154-60)
League finish: First in North Central Thumb League
Championship history: Has never appeared in an MHSAA Final.
Best wins: 32-12, 48-39 and 42-39 (District Final) over Carsonville-Port Sanilac, 24-18 over Peck, 36-30 (2OT) over Portland St. Patrick (Semifinal).
Players to watch: QB Nick Pagel, 5-10/170, jr. (132 carries, 824 yards, 11 TDs rushing; 31 of 63, 463 yards, six TDs passing), RB Corey Wagester, 6-0/165, sr. (136 carries, 820 yards 12 TDs rushing), FB/LB Chris Wolfe, 5-10/170, sr. (151 carries, 1,580 yards, 14 TDs rushing).
Outlook: This is Deckerville’s first season of 8-player football. But unlike a lot of others that have made the switch, the Eagles had plenty of success in 11-player with four seasons of at least 10 wins beginning in 2000 – when they made the Division 8 Semifinals and fell six points shy of reaching the Pontiac Silverdome. Their lone loss this season came in Week 2 to powerful Cedarville; Deckerville has rolled since although it had two close calls during the playoffs. The Eagles also focus on the run led by two strong backs and two-way quarterbacking threat Pagel, and will have a hefty size advantage thanks to guys like senior Kevin Hammond (6-foot-1/235 pounds), sophomore Cody Mausolf (6-2/240) and senior Zachary Bowerman (6-0/210) up front.