Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012
October 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.
So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:
How would you have done so differently?
And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.
This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.
Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.
Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.
Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.
There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”
Observations and answers
A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.
Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season.
No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.
The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.
Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.
And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way.
Their journeys begin Friday.
Drive for Detroit: Week 7 in Review
October 9, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Two Michigan communities are celebrating football success like never before.
Swartz Creek two weeks ago and Grand Rapids Northview on Friday became two of three teams this season to earn MHSAA playoff berths for the first time. Both also are in first place in their respective conferences.
The third to earn a first-time berth is Detroit East English, although that comes with a bit of an asterisk. The school is made up mostly of students from the now-closed Detroit Crockett and Finney, and the former in particular was a frequent playoff qualifier of late. Still, it's an incredible way to begin a new legacy, as East English won its division of the Detroit Public School League and is one of four teams playing in a PSL Semifinal on Friday.
Following are a number of other significant results from Week 7 as the regular season stares down its final two weeks.
Thumb and Bay
Flint Powers Catholic 32, Flint Carman-Ainsworth 7
This might be the most impressive of victories so far for the reigning MHSAA Division 5 champion, which moved to 7-0 and a win away from claiming a share of the Saginaw Valley Association South title. Carman-Ainsworth (6-1) was riding two straight shutouts and hadn't give up more than 12 points in a game this fall, but a combination of five turnovers and Powers quarterback Garrett Pougnet made for a tough night. Click to read more from the Flint Journal.
Also noted:
Akron-Fairgrove 22, Owendale-Gagetown 20 – Owendale-Gagetown (5-2) won the first game beteween these two, but the second matchup counts toward the league title; Akron-Fairgrove (5-2) now owns the edge in the Mid-Michigan 8-Man League.
Hemlock 21, Freeland 7 – The Huskies (6-1) claimed the Tri-Valley Conference Central title, their first league championship since 1977; Freeland fell to 5-2.
Marine City 34, Marysville 13 – Marine City moved to 6-1 and remained tied for first in the Macomb Area Conference Gold, while Marysville fell to 5-2.
Bay City Western 34, Mount Pleasant 26 – Western improved to 7-0 to remain tied for first with Midland in the SVA North, and might’ve knocked Mount Pleasant (3-4) out of playoff contention.
Mid-Michigan
Lansing Everett 22, Grand Ledge 21 (OT)
It took overtime and a gutsy call by Everett coach Marcelle Carruthers to follow his players’ request and run instead of pass for a two-point conversion to win. But the Vikings (7-0) need just one more victory to claim a share of the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue championship, which would be their first league title since 1986. The second-place Comets (5-2) are now faced with beating East Lansing or Holt, playoff contenders both, to earn that sixth win. Click to read more from the Lansing State Journal.
Also noted:
Fowler 14, Pewamo-Westphalia 0 – Both rivals made MHSAA Finals last season; Fowler (6-1) earned a share of the Central Michigan Athletic Conference title by beating the second-place Pirates (5-2).
Lansing Catholic 41, Portland 32 – Locally, Portland (6-1) seemed like the favorite, but Lansing Catholic (6-1) made it two CAAC White titles in a row.
Hartland 34, Grand Blanc 22 – The Eagles (7-0) continued their best season in at least two decades by beating second-place Grand Blanc (4-2) to win the Kensington Lakes Activities Association West title.
Haslett 35, St. Johns 32 – Both finished tied for second in the CAAC Red. But this had greater meaning for Haslett (4-3), which found itself in a must-win against the Redwings (5-2) as both pursue playoff berths.
Greater Detroit
Oak Park 26, Farmington Hills Harrison 21
Oak Park (7-0) won a share of the Oakland Activities Association White championship, its first league title since 1998, and did so coming off four straight losing seasons. The Knights can clinch outright this week against Oxford. Harrison, meanwhile, fell to 4-3 and finds itself needing to win out to guarantee a playoff berth. Click to read more from the Oakland Press.
Also noted:
Dearborn Heights Robichaud 34, Garden City 7 – Robichaud (7-0) avoided a three-way Western Wayne Athletic Conference Red title by winning it outright; Garden City (4-3) tied for second.
Detroit Loyola 28, Waterford Our Lady 18 – Loyola (7-0) claimed a share of the title in the Detroit Catholic League Intersectional, which still has five teams including Our Lady (5-2) up for automatic playoff berths.
Grosse Pointe South 17, Grosse Pointe North 15 – South (6-1) claimed a share of the Macomb Area Conference Blue title by edging the rival Norsemen (4-3).
Birmingham Seaholm 35, Bloomfield Hills Lahser 33 – Seaholm (6-1) edged a win closer to a league title by winning this battle of formerly first-place teams in the OAA Blue; Lahser remains in second place and is 5-2 overall.
Upper Peninsula
Negaunee 20, Ishpeming 8
These were two of the six undefeated teams left in the Upper Peninsula; Negaunee remains now at 7-0 and owns a share of the Mid-Peninsula Conference title. The victory also improved on a recent run of six losses in seven meetings against Ishpeming (6-1). Click to read more from the Marquette Mining Journal.
Also noted:
Calumet 26, L'Anse 6 – The Purple Hornets (6-1) still own their destiny, and with a win over Northland Pines this week can earn a share of the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference title. Now, however, Calumet (4-3) also can earn a share too.
St. Ignace 39, Pickford 6 – The Saints (6-1) earned a share of the Ski Valley Conference North title, while Pickford (5-2) fell a game back.
Rapid River 30, Eben Junction Superior Central 27 – Cedarville likely won’t slip up in the Bridge Alliance 8-Man Conference, but if so Rapid River (6-1) can earn a share of the title. Superior Central fell to 4-2.
Kingsford 10, Iron Mountain 0 – The Flivvers (6-1) earned a playoff berth and remain in first place in the Great Northern U.P. Conference; Iron Mountain, at 4-3, must win out.
West Michigan
Grand Rapids Northview 34, Cedar Springs 14
Northview (6-1) became one of three teams so far this fall to earn a playoff berth for the first time, and remains tied for first in the O-K Bronze thanks to this win. With another this week, the Wildcats could face Grand Rapids West Catholic in Week 9 for the league title – unless Cedar Springs (4-3) gives some help by beating West Catholic this week. Click to read more from the Grand Rapids Press.
Also noted:
Grand Rapids Catholic Central 37, Grand Rapids South Christian 17 – The Cougars (7-0) set up an O-K Gold-deciding game against Hastings this week by defeating the third-place Sailors (4-3).
Caledonia 28, Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 6 – The Fighting Scots (6-1) earned a playoff berth, while Forest Hills Central (4-3) lost its third game in four weeks and needs to win out.
Grand Rapids Kenowa Hills 35, Muskegon Mona Shores 26 – Kenowa Hills (4-3) kept its playoff hopes alive while dealing a blow to Mona Shores (4-3) as it plays for a first berth ever.
Muskegon Oakridge 20, Shelby 9 – Oakridge (7-0) earned a share of the West Michigan Conference title; Shelby (5-2) needs to win one of its next two to earn a playoff berth.
Lower Up North
Traverse City St. Francis 13, Saginaw Nouvel 7
St. Francis’ state-best playoff berth streak of 22 straight seasons isn’t sure to continue yet, but the Gladiators (4-3) stayed alive with a big win over the reigning Division 7 champion Panthers (5-2). St. Francis must win out against Kingsley and Muskegon Catholic Central to earn an automatic berth, while Nouvel must beat either Detroit Edison or Freeland to do so. Click to read more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.
Also noted:
Maple City Glen Lake 15, Frankfort 12 – Glen Lake (7-0) edged Frankfort (3-4) to finish perfect in the Northwest Conference and continue its best season since 2001.
Traverse City Central 9, Detroit U-D Jesuit 7 – The Trojans (6-1) earned their first playoff berth since 2008 and their first automatic berth since 2005; Jesuit is 2-5 after a 2-1 start.
Cheboygan 28, Sault Ste. Marie 27 (OT) – Cheboygan (5-2) moved a win closer to its first playoff berth in three seasons, and Sault Ste. Marie (4-3) remains alive as well.
Grayling 33, Kalkaska 6 – The Ramblers (7-0) kept pace with Boyne City atop the Lake Michigan Conference, while pushing Kalkaska (5-2) into fourth place.
Southwest and Border
Mattawan 35, Portage Central 34
Mattawan (7-0) has won 13 straight games in the Southwest Michigan Athletic Conference East, going back more than two seasons, but nearly lost the opportunity to face Stevensville Lakeshore this week to win another league championship. Portage Central (5-2) took advantage of two late on-side kick recoveries to put a scare into the Wildcats. Click to read more from the Kalamazoo Gazette.
Also noted:
Stevensville Lakeshore 28, St. Joseph 24 – Lakeshore (7-0) also had to escape rival St. Joseph (3-4) to keep next week’s SMAC West decider alive.
Climax-Scotts 34, Bellevue 18 – The Panthers improved to 7-0 and Bellevue fell to 3-4, but this got headlines because C-S earned its 100th win over the last 10 seasons.
Dowagiac 31, Three Rivers 28 – Dowagiac (7-0) will face Edwardsburg this week to decide the Wolverine B South title, but nearly tripped up against Three Rivers (4-3) on the way.
Edwardsburg 26, Berrien Springs 20 – The Eddies (6-1) also caught a scare before this week’s big matchup, needing to outlast the Shamrocks (1-6).
Trophy Games
Every week, the MHSAA highlights trophy games played throughout the state. Here are three from Week 7:
- Baseline Jug – This trophy contested by Northville and Novi dates back to 1988, and this season Northville surivived a close call to claim it again, plus a share of the Kensington Lakes Activities Association Central title. Final: Northville 21, Novi 14 (OT).
- The Bell – The Bell was first awarded to the winner of Reading/Quincy in 1975, and the Rangers made it six straight over their rival. Final: Reading 34, Quincy 6.
- Skipper's Oar – Not only did Waterford Kettering celebrate getting this trophy back after a year in Mott's hands, but also the Captains earned their first win this fall. Final: Kettering 42, Mott 14.
PHOTO: Flint Powers senior Nick Sullivan blocks a punt by Carman-Ainsworth junior Connor Storms during the Chargers' 32-7 win Friday. (Click to see more at Terry McNamara Photography.)