Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012

October 24, 2012

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.

So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:

How would you have done so differently?

And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.

This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.

Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.

Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.

Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.

There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”

Observations and answers

A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.

Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season. 

No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.

The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.

Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.

And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way. 

Their journeys begin Friday.

Ogemaw Heights Makes Nemesis Latest Hurdle Conquered During Memorable Run

By Tom Spencer
Special for MHSAA.com

November 3, 2023

Ogemaw Heights found itself in an all too familiar position when the football playoffs opened up last week.

Northern Lower PeninsulaThe Falcons were trailing Gladwin – this time by three touchdowns. Gladwin, the 2022 Division 5 champion, had knocked off Ogemaw Heights 35-20 last year on the way to the title. Gladwin also had topped the Falcons to open this season 42-28.

But this rematch didn’t stay familiar, as things changed fast. The Falcons cut the lead to just one score by halftime and went on to win 28-23.

Another difference is the Falcons (9-1) were at home — the two previous meetings in less than a year were on the Flying Gs’ field. The Falcons are staying home again this weekend, hosting Kingsford at 1 p.m. Saturday with a District title on the line.

Getting a win over Gladwin did not come as a surprise to the Ogemaw’s head coach, Chad Miller, now in his fifth year at the helm. Strong senior leadership has set the tone, and a talented group of underclassmen has arrived to bolster the lineup.

“We were down 21-0 with three minutes left in the first half and scored twice in that three minutes, and then dominated the second half,” Miller said. “We were good last year losing to a very good Gladwin team in a pretty close game in the first round of the playoffs.

“We knew if the sophomores came around we’d be OK this year.”

The Falcons utilize two of the sophomores at fullback, Calvin Marshall and Conner Lambert. Lambert is also the safety on defense, and Marshall plays defensive tackle.

The other sophomores are Eion Jones, Ethan Hock and Jace Peters. Jones starts at tight end and plays a little defense. Hock is the left guard, and Peters plays everywhere, Miller pointed out.

Xander Kartes (9) tips a pass intended for Eli Graves. Karter Schmitt is a four-year starter. Week after week, he leads the team in rushing and tackles as a linebacker. Xander Kartes, in his second year as quarterback and third year starting at safety, is the playmaker and game manager, Miller said.

Schmitt started the comeback against Gladwin with two second-quarter touchdowns. The latter was set up by a Lambert interception.

“We don’t come back from 21 down unless our leaders make great plays,” Miller noted.

The Falcons have 11 other seniors on the roster. Multi-year starters are providing a ton of experience.  This year’s seniors missed the playoffs only once during their careers. The other seniors starting again this year are right guard Mason Dunn, left tackle Ty Neubecker, linebacker Jack Fachting, and center/defensive tackle Andrew Christner.

Ogemaw Heights clinched the Northern Michigan Football Conference’s Legends title with a 35-12 win over Kingsley in Week 7. Schmitt ran 27 times for 149 yards to lead Ogemaw to the school’s first football league title since 2009. It was also the Falcons’ final game in the NMFC as they will join the Jack Pine Conference – which includes Gladwin – next fall.

That win over the Stags, also hosting a playoff game this week in Division 6, came in the program’s annual Purple Game. The Falcons wore purple jerseys against the Stags instead of their traditional brown as each player displayed a family member or friend’s name on the back of the uniform in honor of someone fighting cancer.

The Purple Game originated after the loss of previous coaches and community members to cancer, Miller indicated. The game date is set in advance of the season, just like Homecoming.

“We dedicate one game to anybody with or who has cancer,” Miller said. “The players choose someone in their lives, and we wear purple jerseys with the person’s relative or family name on the back and we present it to the family afterwards.

“It was a big night,” Miller continued. “Kingsley is a machine.”

Kingsford also will bring a 9-1 record over the Mackinac Bridge and down I-75 to the West Branch exit. The Flivvers’ only loss was 13-12 at Negaunee, a team battling this weekend for a District championship in Division 6.

“Kingsford is a very good team with a running back that has over 900 yards and 17 touchdowns the last three games,” Miller said of his team’s next opponent. “He’s probably the best running we’ve seen this year — he is going to be an issue.

“We won’t back down from anything,” Miller added. “The kids are cornfield tough – they are tough guys, man.”

Tom SpencerTom Spencer is a longtime MHSAA-registered basketball and soccer official, and former softball and baseball official, and he also has coached in the northern Lower Peninsula area. He previously has written for the Saginaw News, Bay County Sports Page and Midland Daily News. He can be reached at [email protected] with story ideas for Manistee, Wexford, Missaukee, Roscommon, Ogemaw, Iosco, Alcona, Oscoda, Crawford, Kalkaska, Grand Traverse, Benzie, Leelanau, Antrim, Otsego, Montmorency, Alpena, Presque Isle, Cheboygan, Charlevoix and Emmet counties.

PHOTOS (Top) Ogemaw Heights’ Karter Schmitt is tackled by Gavin Dear and Gavyn Merchant during the Falcons’ win over Kingsley this season. (Middle) Xander Kartes (9) tips a pass intended for Eli Graves. (Photos courtesy of the Traverse City Record-Eagle.)