Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012
October 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.
So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:
How would you have done so differently?
And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.
This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.
Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.
Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.
Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.
There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”
Observations and answers
A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.
Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season.
No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.
The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.
Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.
And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way.
Their journeys begin Friday.
1st & Goal: 2022 Week 5 Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
September 23, 2022
This weekend is the midpoint of this regular season, and stands to be a turning point for several teams this season.
Eight games will match teams undefeated so far this fall. A number of others will pit league title contenders against each other, with the Port Huron and Flint areas, Detroit Catholic League, Macomb County and rural Greater Lansing enjoying some of their best annual rivalry games over the next two days.
Games are Friday unless noted. Click for the full schedule from MHSAA.com and check out the broadcast schedule from MHSAA.tv.
Bay & Thumb
Frankenmuth (4-0) at Freeland (4-0)
This has become a league matchup with statewide appeal over the last few seasons. Frankenmuth has won the last three meetings, last season’s deciding the Tri-Valley Conference 10 title. But both went on to reach MHSAA Semifinals, Freeland in Division 4 and the Eagles in Division 5. Frankenmuth has handed lone losses this fall to Goodrich and Birch Run and given up only 30 points total. Freeland’s defense literally has been one better, giving up only 29 points so far.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Flint Hamady (4-0) at Flint Beecher (2-2), Port Huron Northern (4-0) at Port Huron (3-1), Sanford Meridian (3-1) at Gladwin (4-0), Millington (4-0) at Standish Sterling (4-0).
Greater Detroit
Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (4-0) at Macomb Dakota (4-0)
This is the midpoint as well in the Macomb Area Conference Red schedule – and these are the two contenders left without a defeat. They are frequently at the top, although last season they tied for third in the league standings. Dakota has won the last three meetings (starting with the 2019 playoffs), and both have done the work to make this arguably the best matchup in Week 5. Chippewa Valley’s season-opening win over Detroit Catholic Central keeps looking better and better. Same scenario for the Cougars, who defeated Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice in Week 1 and have given up 17 points over its four victories.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY West Bloomfield (4-0) at Rochester Adams (3-1), Detroit Catholic Central (3-1) at Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice (2-2), Brighton (4-0) at Northville (4-0), Detroit Central (4-0) at Detroit Southeastern (3-1).
Mid-Michigan
Bay City Western (3-1) at Mount Pleasant (4-0)
The Warriors have looked like a Saginaw Valley League North contender especially the last two weeks with 20-plus point wins over Traverse City West and Midland Dow, and was on the cusp last season while losing to Dow by a point and Mount Pleasant 31-16. Western can become the team to chase this weekend by avenging that defeat to the Oilers, who are coming off one-score wins over Cadillac and Traverse City Central. Mount Pleasant has won the last seven games in this series.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Holt (2-2) at DeWitt (2-2), Grand Blanc (2-2) at East Lansing (4-0), Pewamo-Westphalia (3-1) at Fowler (4-0), Mason (4-0) at Haslett (3-1).
Northern Lower Peninsula
Cadillac (2-2) at Gaylord (3-1)
With the Big North Conference now at four teams for football, and these two coming off wins in their league openers, this matchup will decide a share of the BNC championship. Gaylord bounced back nicely from its Week 3 loss to Marquette to defeat Petoskey last week, while Cadillac has impressive one-score losses to Midland and Mount Pleasant. The Vikings won last year’s meeting with Gaylord 22-0, their fourth-straight victory in the series.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Kalkaska (2-2) at Boyne City (4-0), East Jordan (2-2) at Maple City Glen Lake (3-1), Lake City (2-2) at McBain (2-2). SATURDAY Sault Ste. Marie (4-0) at Ogemaw Heights (2-2).
Southeast & Border
Parma Western (2-2) at Jackson Northwest (3-1)
Jackson Northwest is on the rise as its third win last week guaranteed the Mounties their best finish since 2013 and equaled their number of victories the last three seasons combined. And suddenly, Northwest could figure into the Interstate 8 Athletic Conference race with four of the other top six teams in the standings coming up over the next five weeks. Western certainly can’t be overlooked among them; its losses were by seven points to Detroit Country Day and five to Jackson Lumen Christi.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Grass Lake (2-2) at Michigan Center (1-3), Hanover-Horton (2-2) at Napoleon (4-0), Petersburg Summerfield (2-2) at Ottawa Lake Whiteford (4-0), Chelsea (3-1) at Adrian (3-2).
Southwest Corridor
Plainwell (3-1) at Edwardsburg (3-1)
Edwardsburg’s Wolverine Conference winning streak lives at 35, but not without two of its most significant challenges over the last six seasons. Three Rivers pushed the Eddies to within eight points in Week 2, and Edwardsburg escaped with a three-point win over Vicksburg last week thanks to a last-second field goal. Plainwell has made the playoffs nine of the last 10 seasons (plus 2020, when all teams qualified) and would be a candidate to challenge the Eddies too – although Edwardsburg won last year’s matchup 49-0.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY St. Joseph (3-1) at Portage Central (2-2), Homer (3-1) at Union City (3-1), Constantine (3-1) at Watervliet (3-1). SATURDAY South Lyon East (3-1) at Paw Paw (3-1).
Upper Peninsula
Bark River-Harris (3-1) at Iron Mountain (3-1)
Iron Mountain has won all six recent meetings, including one in the playoffs. But Bark River-Harris gave the Mountaineers their best matchup of those six last season, falling only 28-22. They play in different divisions of the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference, and both are championship contenders in their respective divisions – plus Bark River-Harris is ranked No. 6 and Iron Mountain No. 10 in Division 8 by the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Negaunee (4-0) at Ishpeming (2-2), Houghton (3-1) at Hancock (1-3), Gladstone (4-0) at Marquette (1-3), Escanaba (1-3) at Kingsford (2-2).
West Michigan
Caledonia (4-0) at Grandville (4-0)
This, along with Rockford/East Kentwood matchup below, will bring the number of teams leading the Ottawa-Kent Conference Red from four to two by Friday night’s end. The intrigue here is both are undefeated overall – plus Grandville sees Rockford next week, and Caledonia sees East Kentwood. Grandville owns a 4-2 edge in this series since Caledonia moved to the Red in 2016, but Caledonia has won two of the last three including 24-14 last fall. The Fighting Scots are stoppers; they’ve given up 28 points total so far. But opening wins over Grand Blanc and Byron Center put Grandville into the spotlight quickly this season.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Rockford (4-0) at East Kentwood (3-1), Beal City (4-0) at Evart (4-0), Ada Forest Hills Eastern (4-0) at Grand Rapids Catholic Central (4-0), Zeeland West (4-0) at Muskegon (3-1).
8-Player
Brown City (4-0) at Martin (4-0)
Brown City is playing 8-player this fall for the first time and showed the fast start isn’t beginners’ luck again last week with a 58-40 win over perennial Finals contender Suttons Bay. Defeating Martin would be a similar if not more substantial accomplishment. The Clippers haven’t given up a point since Week 2 and moved up to No. 1 in Division 1 this week, while Brown City is No. 5.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Climax-Scotts (4-0) at Athens (3-1), Eau Claire (3-1) at Bridgman (4-0), Breckenridge (3-1) at Morrice (4-0). SATURDAY Merrill (4-0) at Portland St. Patrick (3-1).
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PHOTO Detroit Cass Tech quarterback Leeshaun Mumpfield drops back to pass against Detroit Renaissance during a Week 3 win. (Photo by Chardonne’ U of Olivia B. Photography.)