Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012
October 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.
So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:
How would you have done so differently?
And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.
This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.
Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.
Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.
Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.
There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”
Observations and answers
A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.
Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season.
No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.
The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.
Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.
And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way.
Their journeys begin Friday.
1st & Goal: 2022 Week 4 Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
September 16, 2022
If last week’s top matchups could be considered tough to gauge beforehand, this week’s are a breeze to forecast.
Of the 18 teams listed below in our best-expected games from every region, 13 are ranked in the top 10 of their respective divisions by the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Our “Bay & Thumb” highlighted game featured two top-six Division 8 teams, and three more of those 13 are top-ranked with our best 8-player matchup featuring two teams that played in Finals last fall.
Games are Friday unless noted. Click for the full schedule from MHSAA.com and check out the broadcast schedule from MHSAA.tv.
Bay & Thumb
Ubly (3-0) at Harbor Beach (3-0)
The Bearcats continue to thrive as one of the strongest small-school programs in the state, as last season’s only loss came in the Division 8 Semifinals and after they were Division 8 runners-up in 2020 and also made the Semifinals in 2019. Ubly seemed to take over as the Greater Thumb Conference East powerhouse from Harbor Beach, but didn’t truly shake the Pirates until sweeping them last year 50-33 during the regular season and 35-6 in a playoff opener. Harbor Beach should put up another challenge this time; the Pirates didn’t give up a point this season until last week. Both teams have two wins over 2021 playoff teams.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Fenton (2-1) at Swartz Creek (3-0), Clare (2-1) at Gladwin (3-0), Saginaw Heritage (3-0) at Davison (2-1), North Branch (3-0) at Almont (3-0).
Greater Detroit
Detroit Martin Luther King (1-1) at Detroit Cass Tech (1-2)
This annual matchup between Detroit Public School League powers – now back in the same division – will be a breakout game for the winner. Both have suffered losses to Indiana powerhouses – Cass Tech to Carmel and King to Indianapolis Warren Central – and both rebounded to open the league schedule with 60-point shutouts. King won both matchups with Cass last season, but by only seven and six points. As usual, this likely will be just the first of two meetings this fall, with the next in the PSL playoffs.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Clarkston (2-1) at West Bloomfield (3-0), South Lyon East (3-0) at Walled Lake Western (3-0), River Rouge (2-0) at Orchard Lake St. Mary’s (1-2), Carleton Airport (3-0) at Grosse Ile (3-0).
Mid-Michigan
DeWitt (2-1) at East Lansing (3-0)
This has been the matchup not just in the Capital Area Activities Conference Blue but usually all of Greater Lansing since DeWitt moving into the league in 2018. The Panthers have won four of the five matchups since, including two in the playoffs and 49-14 last season. This should see a much closer result. East Lansing’s run so far this fall includes two wins over likely league title contenders, Portage Central and Fenton. DeWitt’s two wins also came against league title contenders in Haslett and Portland, and the young Panthers continued to show they’re learning quickly in last week’s overtime loss at Detroit Catholic Central.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Mason (3-0) at Williamston (3-0), Traverse City Central (1-2) at Mount Pleasant (3-0), Lansing Waverly (3-0) at Grand Ledge (2-1), Lake Odessa Lakewood (2-1) at Perry (2-1).
Northern Lower Peninsula
Kingsley (2-1) at Traverse City St. Francis (3-0)
Don’t let the Stags’ one-point loss to Gaylord in Week 2 take any of the dazzle off this Northern Michigan Football League Legends clash. Kingsley’s only other regular-season losses over the last five seasons were to St. Francis, 38-30 last season and then in 2018. The Gladiators have lit up the scoreboard with 42 or more points every game this fall, and they own an impressive 42-35 Week 2 win over Jackson Lumen Christi.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Evart (3-0) at Manton (2-1), Beal City (3-0) at Lake City (2-1), Elk Rapids (3-0) at Charlevoix (3-0), Grand Blanc (1-2) at Traverse City West (1-2).
Southeast & Border
Adrian (2-1) at Tecumseh (3-0)
We featured Tecumseh earlier this week as that team is off to a grand start as it seeks its first winning season since 2013. Adrian is in a similar spot, having won two games a year ago, with those victories breaking a previous losing streak that stretched back to 2017. After falling to Ada Forest Hills Eastern in their opener, the Maples have won by 27 and 31, respectively, the last two weeks. The winner of this matchup may provide the toughest challenge to Chelsea in the Southeastern Conference White.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Union City (2-1) at Reading (3-0), Erie Mason (3-0) at Petersburg Summerfield (2-1), Saline (3-0) at Monroe (2-1), Pinckney (1-2) at Chelsea (2-1).
Southwest Corridor
Constantine (2-1) at Schoolcraft (3-0)
After last season’s game couldn’t be played, this rivalry that goes back at least 70 years is back. And although these teams remain in separate divisions of the Southwestern Athletic Conference, this matchup still carries plenty of clout. The Falcons do have a defeat, but by only two to a Hudson team that’s won 17 straight. Schoolcraft is coming off a four-point win over Kalamazoo United as it continues to rebound from last season – the Kalamazoo win was the second straight to avenge a 2021 loss.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Edwardsburg (2-1) at Vicksburg (2-1), Battle Creek Lakeview (1-1) at St. Joseph (2-1), Sturgis (2-1) at Paw Paw (2-1), Centreville (2-1) at Decatur (2-1).
Upper Peninsula
Gladstone (3-0) at St. Ignace (3-0)
These two have been the stories of the Upper Peninsula so far this season as both are on a roll after finishing sub-.500 last fall. Gladstone has defeated three 2021 league champions and appears the team to chase in the Great Northern Conference. St. Ignace may be the same in the Northern Michigan Football League Legacy coming off its second-straight shutout this month, this one against last season’s Legends runner-up Frankfort.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Manistique (2-1) at Negaunee (3-0), L’Anse (2-1) at Iron Mountain (2-1), Menominee (1-2) at Escanaba (1-2). SATURDAY Bark River-Harris (3-0) at Houghton (2-1).
West Michigan
Ludington (3-0) at Muskegon Oakridge (3-0)
Two of the region’s best matchups this week come from the West Michigan Conference Lakes – Montague/Whitehall is the other – which means the league should sort out a bit by Saturday. Ludington is new to the league after playing formerly in the Lakes 8 Conference, and the Orioles already have equaled their win total of all of last season. The Oakridge matchup presents another level of opportunity though, as the Eagles are regular contenders in the former one-division WMC and owners of three wins already this fall over 2021 playoff qualifiers.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Byron Center (1-2) at Lowell (3-0), Montague (2-1) at Whitehall (3-0), Belding (3-0) at Grandville Calvin Christian (3-0), Holland West Ottawa (2-1) at Grandville (3-0)
8-Player
Colon (3-0) at Adrian Lenawee Christian (3-0)
The Cougars are bringing a 27-game winning streak into this matchup – coinciding with their move to 8-player at the start of the 2020 season – and Colon was the opponent for two of those victories. But the Magi, last season’s Division 2 runner-up, also gave eventual Division 1 champ Lenawee Christian one of its best challenges last season, 47-21. Sidenote: These are two of five Southern Central Athletic Association A teams that have opened 2-1 or better.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Norway (3-0) at Crystal Falls Forest Park (3-0), Breckenridge (2-1) at Portland St. Patrick (3-0), Cedarville (3-0) at Newberry (2-1). SATURDAY Suttons Bay (2-1) at Brown City (3-0).
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PHOTO: A South Haven receiver pulls in a pass against Ada Forest Hills Eastern in Week 1. (Photo by Michigan Sports Photo.)