Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012
October 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.
So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:
How would you have done so differently?
And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.
This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.
Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.
Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.
Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.
There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”
Observations and answers
A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.
Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season.
No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.
The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.
Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.
And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way.
Their journeys begin Friday.
1st & Goal: 2022 Week 3 Review
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
September 12, 2022
At first glance from a mile-high view last week, Michigan’s Week 3 high school football schedule didn’t have a ton of matchups that popped off the page.
But when there are only nine regular-season games and only 288 teams that move on to the playoffs, every matchup matters much more.
And of course, plenty found a way to grab our attention. We check in on 45 below.
Bay & Thumb
HEADLINER Croswell-Lexington 34, Armada 12 The reigning Blue Water Area Conference champion Pioneers (3-0) took a big-time step toward a possible repeat, as Armada (2-1) has received a lot of attention for its turnaround over the last two seasons including its fast start this fall. Croswell-Lexington quarterback Gavin Espinoza starred as his team ran its league winning streak to 12. Click for more from The Sports Report.
Watch list Saginaw Heritage 52, Grand Blanc 40 The Hawks are 3-0 for the first time since 2006 and have put up more than 50 points every game, with 52 the most Grand Blanc (1-2) has given up since 2019.
On the move Davison 49, Traverse City Central 14 The Cardinals (2-1) bounced back from a Week 2 loss to Detroit Catholic Central to send the reigning Division 2 runner-up to 1-2. Bay City Western 21, Traverse City West 0 The Warriors (2-1) welcomed Traverse City West (1-2) to the Saginaw Valley League, earning their first shutout since 2019. Saginaw Swan Valley 27, Essexville Garber 21 After a tough start but against two league championship contenders, Swan Valley (1-2) is on the board with this win over the Dukes (2-1). If history holds, they may see each other again in the playoffs for the fourth-straight season.
Greater Detroit
HEADLINER Clarkston 45, Rochester Adams 35 A score-fest during the first half – Clarkston led 42-28 at the break – did eventually slow down as the Wolves (2-1) handed the reigning Division 1 runner-up Highlanders their first regular-season loss since 2019. The win also gives Clarkston an important edge to start the Oakland Activities Association Red schedule, as Adams (2-1) rejoined the division after winning the OAA White a year ago. Click for more from the Oakland Press.
🏈 Here's the highlights of the Clarkston at Rochester Adams game that aired on Football Fridays Overtime powered by STATE CHAMPS! on @BallySportsDET #MIFTBL | @ThinkFordFirst pic.twitter.com/jFigQiOms6
— STATE CHAMPS! Michigan (@statechampsmich) September 10, 2022
Watch list Gibraltar Carlson 35, Allen Park 6 The Marauders (3-0) jumped to 9-2 last season, but with 28 and 21-point losses to Allen Park. This win was Carlson’s first in the series since 2018.
On the move Detroit Catholic Central 45, DeWitt 38 (OT) This looks great for both teams; DCC (2-1) for holding on against another of the state’s top programs, and the young but talented Panthers (2-1) for pushing a Division 1 power to overtime. Detroit Country Day 28, Warren Michigan Collegiate 20 All three of Country Day’s wins have come against 2021 playoff qualifiers, with Michigan Collegiate (2-1) last season’s Division 7 runner-up. Plymouth 16, Canton 0 After back-to-back one-win seasons, Plymouth (1-2) earned the first of this fall to avenge losing to rival Canton (1-2) by 50 a year ago.
Mid-Michigan
HEADLINER Hastings 24, Jackson Lumen Christi 21 The Saxons shared last season’s Interstate 8 Athletic Conference championship, a 33-22 loss to Lumen Christi keeping Hastings from the outright title. But the Saxons held off the Titans this time for their second win in the series over the last three seasons – and sent Lumen Christi to 0-3, although those losses have come to teams that sit a combined 8-1. Click for more from The Hastings Banner.
Watch list Ithaca 48, Saginaw Nouvel 6 The Yellowjackets (2-1) started their league title 13-peat pursuit well, stopping a Panthers offense that had scored a combined 93 points over their 2-0 start. Ithaca, currently in the Tri-Valley Conference West 2, has won outright or shared its league’s championship every season beginning with 2009.
On the move Mount Pleasant 27, Cadillac 24 The Oilers (3-0) ran their regular-season winning streak to 15 with their closest victory of the run. Cadillac (1-2), notably, has two one-score defeats. Holt 14, Grand Ledge 6 The Rams’ rebound may be starting as Holt (1-2) ran its winning streak over the rival Comets (2-1) to three. New Lothrop 55, Clarkston Everest Collegiate 0 The Hornets (3-0) are among the most impressive teams in the state through the first third of the regular season, as Everest was 9-3 last fall – but is off to a 1-2 start this time after opening with three 2021 playoff teams.
Northern Lower Peninsula
HEADLINER Boyne City 34, Grayling 6 These two go back most of the last two decades as league opponents, then ended up in separate leagues the last two seasons but faced off in the playoffs, splitting those games with Boyne City winning by a point last year. They are still in different divisions of the Northern Michigan Football League, but the Ramblers (3-0) will enter Leaders play with plenty of momentum coming off their best defensive performance. Grayling will take a 1-2 record into the Legends division. Click for more from the Petoskey News-Review.
Watch list Elk Rapids 30, Tawas 14 The Elks (3-0) have now won as many games this season as over the last two combined, and have yet to allow more than two touchdowns this fall.
On the move Kingsley 30, Ogemaw Heights 20 The Stags (2-1) bounced back from a one-point Week 2 loss to Gaylord to set up this week’s matchup with rival Traverse City St. Francis. Traverse City St. Francis 49, Benzie Central 12 The Gladiators (3-0) also are riding high after moving to 2-0 in the NMFL Legends. Lake City 44, Manton 0 After losing the season opener to Cheboygan, Lake City (2-1) hasn’t allowed a point and handed Manton (2-1) its first defeat after the Rangers had topped 30 points both of their first two games.
Southeast & Border
HEADLINER Tecumseh 35, Pinckney 14 An early slate of three opponents that made the playoffs last season might have seemed a little daunting as Tecumseh was starting this season pursuing its first winning record since 2013. But Tecumseh (3-0) is setting the pace, adding this win to victories over Michigan Center and Richland Gull Lake to start the fall. Click for more from the Adrian Daily Telegram.
Watch list Carleton Airport 33, Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central 14 The Jets (3-0) are coming off back-to-back four-win seasons but have nearly equaled that victory total already, with this one also avenging a 35-26 loss to SMCC from last season.
On the move Addison 48, Hanover-Horton 39 The Panthers (2-1) bounced back from their Week 2 loss by grounding a Comets team that was coming off a big win. Clinton 18, Ida 6 The Redwolves (3-0) have added a solid Lenawee Country Athletic Association win to a big overall start, as Ida was the runner-up in the league a year ago. Napoleon 30, Manchester 25 Add the Pirates (3-0) to the list of contenders in the Cascades Conference after their most impressive win so far, as they handed Manchester (2-1) its lone defeat.
Southwest Corridor
HEADLINER Portage Central 16, Battle Creek Lakeview 13 Not so fast, to anyone who had counted out Portage Central after its 0-2 start. The Mustangs began Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference play with this win over the only league team that had begun 2-0. Central (1-2) came back from a 13-0 halftime deficit to catch the Spartans (2-1). Click for more from the Battle Creek Enquirer.
Watch list Sturgis 55, Plainwell 35 The Trojans (2-1) defeated Plainwell (2-1) for first time since 2015, with Jacob Thompson scoring six touchdowns and throwing for a seventh.
On the move Constantine 47, Lawton 21 The Falcons (2-1) put Lawton’s regular-season winning streak of 12 games to an end with 33 unanswered points. Schoolcraft 33, Kalamazoo United 29 The Eagles trailed by multiple scores but went ahead during the final minutes to get to 3-0. Benton Harbor 28, Muskegon Catholic Central 20 The Tigers (2-1) broke a three-game losing streak against MCC (1-2) and equaled their win total from all of last season.
Upper Peninsula
HEADLINER Gladstone 28, Menominee 6 Make that three 2021 league champions that Gladstone (3-0) has defeated to begin this fall, as the Braves look to be in control in the Great Northern Conference after defeating last season’s co-champions Kingsford and Menominee in successive weeks. Gladstone hadn’t defeated Menominee since 2018, and fell by a point in last year’s meeting. Click for more from RRN Sports.
Watch list Iron Mountain 28, Houghton 6 After a five-point loss to Negaunee in the season opener, the Mountaineers have dominated their next two opponents by a combined score of 62-6. Houghton (2-1) had given up only 18 points total over its first two games.
On the move St. Ignace 28, Frankfort 0 The Saints’ first two wins were over teams that didn’t win a game last year or yet this fall, but defeating Frankfort (2-1) brings another level of impressiveness to St. Ignace’s 3-0 start. Marquette 17, Gaylord 14 The Blue Devils (2-1) were one of the most intriguing teams in the state after two weeks, but Marquette (1-2) pushed past after losing both of its first two games by one score. Escanaba 33, Petoskey 30 After losses to a pair of tough teams to start, Escanaba (1-2) picked up its first victory and will eclipse last year’s win total with another one.
West Michigan
HEADLINER Grand Rapids Catholic Central 21, Cedar Springs 20 The Cougars’ now 40-game winning streak received its toughest challenge yet as GRCC (3-0) needed a late stop on a 2-point conversion attempt to open the Ottawa-Kent Conference Blue schedule with another win. It was the third one-pointer during the streak; Cedar Springs was part of another when GRCC won last year’s meeting 41-40. Click for more form FOX 17.
Watch list Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central 21, Byron Center 13 The Rangers (3-0) may have taken a big step toward repeating in the O-K White, as Byron Center finished third a year ago.
On the move Hudsonville Unity Christian 28, Coopersville 27 After a pair of defeats to strong teams to start the season, Unity started off the O-K Blue schedule right by edging the Broncos (2-1). Ludington 7, Fremont 0 The Orioles (3-0) won a matchup of undefeated teams in the new West Michigan Conference Lakes, with likely favorite Muskegon Oakridge up next. Muskegon 28, Muskegon Reeths-Puffer 20 This was the closest game between these two since 2011, but the Big Reds held on to start off the O-K Green schedule.
8-Player
HEADLINER Norway 40, Lake Linden-Hubbell 26 The Knights (3-0) are climbing the ladder of contenders after getting past another challenger in the Great Lakes Eight Conference West and with also-undefeated Crystal Falls Forest Park up next. Norway reached 40 points for the third time in three games to hand Lake Linden-Hubbell (2-1) its lone defeat. Click for more from the Iron Mountain Daily News.
Watch list Bridgman 56, Mendon 50 The Bees (3-0) scored 14 unanswered points during the fourth quarter to extend their winning streak to 16 and earn their second in two years over the Hornets (1-2).
On the move Lawrence 32, Wyoming Tri-unity Christian 28 The Tigers (1-2) hadn’t been close in their first two games, but found their stride in handing the Defenders (2-1) their lone defeat. Mio 46, Hillman 42 The Thunderbolts (2-1) are putting up some big offensive numbers and needed to this time again against the Tigers (1-2). New Haven Merritt 38, Bay City All Saints 30 The Mustangs (1-2) mounted a major comeback to earn their first victory.
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PHOTOS: (Top) A LeRoy Pine River ball carrier finds an opening against Evart on Friday. (Middle) An Ithaca ball carrier works to break free from a Saginaw Nouvel tackler. (Top photo by Tonya Holmes; middle photo by High School Sports Scene.)