Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012
October 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.
So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:
How would you have done so differently?
And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.
This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.
Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.
Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.
Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.
There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”
Observations and answers
A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.
Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season.
No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.
The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.
Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.
And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way.
Their journeys begin Friday.
1st & Goal: 2022 Week 2 Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
September 1, 2022
Week 1 of this football season, as is annually the process, was filled with teams grabbing our attention with strong and often unexpected first impressions.
Week 2 is the beginning of making those impressions stick.
We’ll be watching as 245 games are played Thursday, 50 more Friday and two Saturday. Click for the full schedule from MHSAA.com and check out the broadcast schedule from MHSAA.tv.
Bay & Thumb
East Lansing (1-0) at Fenton (1-0), Thursday
Both were among Week 1 winners to give the strongest notice, with Fenton defeating Midland Dow in a big way and East Lansing going on the road and downing Portage Central. The Trojans won last year’s matchup 33-7 on the way to finishing 7-4 overall, but this also looks early like a much-improved Tigers team from the one that ended 2021 at 4-5.
Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Lake (1-0) at Cass City (1-0), New Lothrop (1-0) at Chesaning (1-0), Frankenmuth (1-0) at Saginaw Swan Valley (0-1). FRIDAY Detroit Catholic Central (0-1) at Davison (1-0).
Greater Detroit
Southfield Arts & Technology (1-0) at Clarkston (0-1), Thursday
Southfield A&T made perhaps the most stunning entrance of all Week 1, defeating Detroit Cass Tech 56-54 in overtime with junior quarterback Isaiah Marshall throwing six touchdown passes and running for two more scores. Up next are the Wolves, who lost 28-21 to Davison last week but won last season’s Southfield matchup 56-27. Sidenote: The last six years these two were in the same Oakland Activities Association division, and this season they are not.
Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Parma Western (1-0) at Detroit Country Day (1-0), Croswell-Lexington (1-0) at Richmond (1-0), Rochester Adams (1-0) at Rochester (0-1). FRIDAY Muskegon (1-0) at Warren De La Salle Collegiate (1-0).
Mid-Michigan
Portland (1-0) at DeWitt (1-0), Thursday
The Raiders have won both recent meetings between these Lansing area powers, in 2019 and then 20-17 a year ago on the way to the Division 5 Semifinals. Portland opened with a big win over Ovid-Elsie, while DeWitt – the reigning Division 3 runner-up – put up an especially strong defensive performance in defeating Haslett last week at University of Michigan. With both expected to do big things again, this one should benefit both in playoff points whichever team comes out on top.
Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Mason (1-0) at Holt (0-1), Standish-Sterling (1-0) at Ithaca (1-0), Williamston (1-0) at Lansing Catholic (0-1). FRIDAY Midland (1-0) at Mount Pleasant (1-0).
Northern Lower Peninsula
Oscoda (1-0) at Maple City Glen Lake (0-1), Thursday
The Owls joined the Northern Michigan Football League last fall, playing in the Legacy division, and this will be their first matchup with the annually-contending Lakers as Glen Lake moved to the Legacy this season. Oscoda missed the playoffs last year for the first time in five, but finished on a four-game winning streak and opened last week with a solid win over Houghton Lake. The Lakers are coming off a similar situation, having won their final three regular-season games last fall to reach the playoffs at 4-5, but they’re coming off a defeat against Kalkaska.
Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Kingsley (1-0) at Gaylord (1-0), Frankfort (1-0) at Mancelona (1-0). FRIDAY Lapeer (1-0) at Traverse City Central (1-0), Cheboygan (1-0) at Boyne City (1-0).
Southeast & Border
Traverse City St. Francis (1-0) at Jackson Lumen Christi (0-1), Friday
These two were both one win away from facing each other in last season’s Division 7 Final, as both saw their seasons end in Semifinals on opposite sides of the bracket. They very well could meet twice this season – St. Francis is ranked No. 2 and Lumen Christi No. 3 in Division 7, with the latter coming off a 12-7 loss to top-ranked New Lothrop. The Gladiators, meanwhile, opened with a league win over Ogemaw Heights.
Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Saline (1-0) at Ann Arbor Huron (0-1), Reading (1-0) at Grass Lake (1-0), Constantine (1-0) at Hudson (1-0), Ottawa Lake Whiteford (1-0) at Ida (0-1). FRIDAY.
Southwest Corridor
Centreville (1-0) at Schoolcraft (1-0), Thursday
The memory of Schoolcraft’s uncharacteristic 3-5 finish a year ago is fading quickly after a major shut out last week of Comstock, and defeating the Bulldogs would further add momentum to the fresh start. The Bulldogs are ranked No. 6 in Division 8 coming off a solid win over Union City, and they defeated Schoolcraft last season 28-7.
Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Plainwell (1-0) at Coldwater (0-1), Stevensville Lakeshore (0-1) at Kalamazoo United (0-1), Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central (1-0) at Portage Central (0-1), Hudsonville Unity Christian (0-1) at St. Joseph (0-1).
Upper Peninsula
Negaunee (1-0) at Calumet (0-1), Thursday
It took just one week for the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper race to get really interesting, with reigning co-champ Westwood falling to Houghton and last season’s third-place finisher Negaunee taking a nice step by defeating 2021 fourth-place finisher Iron Mountain. Calumet was the other co-champ last fall and also lost last week, but nonleague against Gladstone. Negaunee’s 35-21 win over the Copper Kings last fall helped Westwood eventually share the title; this time, a Miners win would make Negaunee a strong favorite just two weeks into the season.
Keep an eye on these THURSDAY West Iron County (0-1) at Bark River-Harris (1-0), Kingsford (1-0) at Gladstone (1-0), Iron Mountain (0-1) at Ishpeming Westwood (0-1), Grayling (1-0) at Sault Ste. Marie (1-0).
West Michigan
Muskegon Mona Shores (1-0) at Rockford (1-0), Thursday
This might be the statewide game of the weekend, as these two perennial powers meet for the first time since 2018. Rockford is ranked No. 4 in Division 1, coming off a big win over East Grand Rapids. Mona Shores is No. 2 in Division 2 after a similarly-solid performance against Wisconsin’s Manitowoc Lincoln. Obviously the rosters have completely turned over, but the Sailors did own a 3-2 advantage in five games against Rockford from 2014-18.
Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Byron Center (1-0) at Grandville (1-0), Muskegon Oakridge (1-0) at Muskegon Catholic Central (1-0). FRIDAY Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice (0-1) at East Kentwood (0-1), Zeeland West (1-0) at Cedar Springs (0-1).
8-Player
Breckenridge (1-0) at Merrill (1-0), Thursday
Despite watching its enrollment fall 30 percent over the last six years, Breckenridge became one of the strongest teams in 11-player Division 8 going 56-11 from 2016-21 before making the move to 8-player this fall. The Huskies edged Fulton 40-36 last season and now get a familiar opponent in Merrill, which played in the same league as Breckenridge from 2016-19 before switching formats. The Vandals opened last week with a significant shut out of Webberville.
Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Grand Rapids NorthPointe Christian (1-0) at Indian River Inland Lakes (1-0), Camden-Frontier (1-0) at Pittsford (1-0). FRIDAY Newberry (1-0) at Munising (1-0), Au Gres-Sims (1-0) at Rogers City (1-0).
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PHOTO Redford Union’s Kyren Ware (7) breaks through the Pewamo-Westphalia defense during last week’s 26-6 victory that broke the Pirates’ 16-game winning streak. (Click for more from High School Sports Scene.)