Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012
October 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.
So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:
How would you have done so differently?
And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.
This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.
Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.
Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.
Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.
There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”
Observations and answers
A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.
Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season.
No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.
The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.
Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.
And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way.
Their journeys begin Friday.
1st & Goal: 2021 Week 9 Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
October 21, 2021
Welcome to the 72 most exhilarating hours in MHSAA playoff football.
OK, that’s a little over the top. But much of what’s determined over the next three days will set up the stories for the rest of this season.
First comes our regular-season finales, with a few high-impact matchups Thursday and many more for remaining league titles and playoff field maneuvering Friday and through Saturday evening.
With about 2,700 regular-season scores locked up for 2020, the playoff selection committee will draw all of our 11 and 8-player brackets Sunday morning – with those pairings announced at 5:30 p.m. on TV on Bally Sports Detroit’s primary channel and online on MHSAA.tv.
Here’s a look at a number of matchups this weekend that likely will add a few final wrinkles as we prepare to unveil this season’s playoff field.
Bay & Thumb
Pontiac Notre Dame Prep (7-1) at Marine City (8-0)
This should give us one of our best looks at Division 5 No. 5 Marine City, which is coming off a Macomb Area Conference Silver championship. The Mariners earlier dealt Division 3 No. 15 Warren Fitzgerald its only loss and Division 4 No. 9 St. Clair its first of two defeats, and no opponent has gotten closer than 29 points in part because Marine City is giving up just 8.6 per game. The Fighting Irish’s only loss this season came to Division 3 No. 7 Harper Woods, and they could make a nice move up from No. 18 in Division 4 with a win tonight. None of Notre Dame Prep’s other opponents have gotten within single digits.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Ubly (8-0) at Bad Axe (7-1), Lapeer (6-2) at Davison (5-3), Standish-Sterling (7-1) at Gladwin (8-0), Frankenmuth (8-0) at New Lothrop (6-2).
Greater Detroit
Troy (8-0) at Bloomfield Hills (8-0)
This winner claims the Oakland Activities Association Blue championship outright, and this also should have Division 1 playoff ranking implications with Troy sitting No. 7 and Bloomfield Hills at No. 14. The Black Hawks have turned things around after three-straight sub-.500 seasons and have guaranteed their best finish since the last time they were in this position when they won the Blue in 2016. Troy is having its most success since 2007 and has given up only 46 points over seven games won on the field.
Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Detroit Cass Tech (5-3) at Orchard Lake St. Mary's (5-3). FRIDAY Hartland (7-1) at Belleville (7-1), Gibraltar Carlson (7-1) at Brownstown Woodhaven (8-0). SATURDAY Clarkston Everest Collegiate (7-1) vs. Madison Heights Bishop Foley (7-1) at Ford Field.
Mid-Michigan
Lansing Catholic (8-0) at Pewamo-Westphalia (8-0)
A pair of league champions will meet in one of the Lansing area’s most anticipated games of the fall, as Division 6 No. 1 Lansing Catholic is seeking to complete a second perfect regular season in three years and Division 7 No. 5 P-W can finish a third perfect regular season in four years – with Lansing Catholic’s 28-13 win over the Pirates the lone regular-season defeat during that stretch. Together they’ve already defeated three league champions this fall – Lansing Catholic won early over Williamston, while P-W opened with a victory over Redford Union and defeated Olivet in Week 6.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Grand Ledge (6-2) at Holt (6-2), Montague (6-2) at Portland (6-2), Charlotte (5-3) at Fowlerville (2-6), Ionia (4-4) at Lake Odessa Lakewood (4-4).
Northern Lower Peninsula
Traverse City St. Francis (8-0) at Kingsley (8-0)
Two Northern Michigan Football League divisions will be decided with outright champions this weekend, with this Legends finale joined by the Legacy decider between Frankfort and East Jordan. Kingsley vs. St. Francis has decided the Legends champion the last three seasons; the Gladiators won in 2018 and the Stags have won the last two meetings and titles. St. Francis is No. 3 in Division 7 and has scored 42 or more points seven of eight games this fall. Kingsley is No. 9 in Division 5 and features a defense giving up just under eight points per game.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Frankfort (6-2) at East Jordan (6-2), Howard City Tri County (7-1) at Manistee (5-3), Detroit Catholic Central (6-2) at Traverse City West (6-2), Maple City Glen Lake (3-5) at Mancelona (5-2).
Southeast & Border
Jonesville (8-0) at Addison (8-0), Saturday
This Big 8/Cascades crossover of champions matches teams that not only have topped those conferences this season but over the last few. Jonesville, No. 15 in Division 6, dominated the Big 8 Conference for the second-straight season, this time winning its league games by an average margin of 43 points. Division 8 No. 3 Addison’s third-straight Cascades Conference sweep included four wins by at least 29 points and a one-pointer that remains Michigan Center’s only defeat.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Chelsea (8-0) at Dexter (5-3), Ottawa Lake Whiteford (7-1) at Erie Mason (5-3), Dundee (5-3) at Hudson (8-0), Reading (6-2) at Michigan Center (7-1).
Southwest Corridor
Portage Central (6-2) at Battle Creek Harper Creek (6-2)
This is another meeting of champions, with Portage Central claiming the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference title and Harper Creek one of three teams celebrating a share of the Interstate 8 Athletic Conference crown. Both sit in the middle of their potential playoff fields – Central is No. 16 in Division 2 and Harper Creek No. 16 in Division 3 – and the winner should get a valuable playoff point boost.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Berrien Springs (8-0) at Cassopolis (5-3), Plainwell (6-2) at Paw Paw (6-2), Battle Creek Lakeview (5-3) at St. Joseph (5-3), DeWitt (7-1) at Stevensville Lakeshore (6-2).
Upper Peninsula
Negaunee (7-1) at Ishpeming Westwood (7-1)
Both Western Peninsula Athletic Conference division championships will be decided this week. Bark-River Harris and Ishpeming meet in the Iron on Thursday, and Negaunee and Westwood will decide at least part of the Copper title Friday. (Calumet also can claim a share with a win over L’Anse.) The Miners’ 42-14 playoff win last fall broke a three-game losing streak on the field against Westwood; their first scheduled 2020 game turned into a forfeit, and tonight’s game is guaranteed to be their only meeting this fall. Negaunee is No. 10 in Division 6, and Westwood is No. 9 in Division 7.
Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Bark River Harris (5-3) at Ishpeming (3-4). FRIDAY L'Anse (4-4) at Calumet (6-2), Sault Ste. Marie (5-3) at Gladstone (4-4), Kingsford (5-3) at Menominee (5-3).
West Michigan
Whitehall (7-1) at Reed City (7-1)
The Vikings are fresh off earning a share of the West Michigan Conference title with last week’s 34-14 victory over Montague and sit among a group of seven tightly-packed teams just below the middle of the Division 4 top 32. A win over Division 6 No. 2 Reed City would provide a nice boost but won’t come easily. The Coyotes wrapped up a repeat in the Central State Activities Association Gold and haven’t had a game closer than two touchdowns since Week 3.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Grand Rapids Northview (4-4) at Grand Rapids Christian (5-3), Cedar Springs (6-2) at Grand Rapids South Christian (6-2), Muskegon Catholic Central (7-1) at Muskegon Oakridge (7-1), Lawton (8-0) at Saugatuck (5-3).
8-Player
Deckerville (7-0) at Morrice (8-0)
Morrice is finishing its fifth season in the North Central Thumb League and won division titles the first four. The Orioles are looking to repeat in the Stars after defeating Deckerville 58-30 in Week 9 to clinch last year’s championship outright, while the Eagles are seeking their third division title in four seasons. This Morrice team is putting up defensive numbers very similar to its 2018 Division 1 championship team, giving up only 40 points over eight games this fall with three shutouts and only one team scoring more than eight. Deckerville should provide an incredible challenge though, entering averaging 56 points per game and having gone over 80 twice.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Britton Deerfield (8-0) at Adrian Lenawee Christian (8-0), Powers North Central (8-0) at Crystal Falls Forest Park (7-1), Rudyard (6-2) at Pickford (7-1), Indian River Inland Lakes (8-0) at Gaylord St. Mary (5-3).
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PHOTO Reed City, right, lines up against Remus Chippewa Hills during a 58-7 Week 4 win. (Photo by Tonya Holmes.)