Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012
October 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.
So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:
How would you have done so differently?
And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.
This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.
Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.
Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.
Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.
There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”
Observations and answers
A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.
Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season.
No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.
The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.
Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.
And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way.
Their journeys begin Friday.
Week 9 Football Playoff Listing: Top 40 in 11-Player Divisions & Top 24 in 8-Player Divisions
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
October 20, 2021
Here is a list of Michigan High School Athletic Association football playing schools, displaying their win-loss records and playoff averages through the eighth week of the season.
Schools on this list are divided by division and ordered by playoff average. The top 32 teams by playoff average in each 11-player division and top 16 teams by playoff average in each 8-player division will qualify for the MHSAA Football Playoffs beginning Oct. 29. Divisions were determined prior to the start of the season, and the lists below include not only teams currently positioned to potentially qualify, but also the next eight teams in each division.
To review a list of all football playoff schools, individual school playoff point details and to report errors, visit the Football page of the MHSAA Website.
The announcement of the qualifiers and first-round pairings for both the 11 and 8-player playoffs will take place at 5:30 p.m. Oct. 24 on the “Selection Sunday Show” on Bally Sports Detroit. The playoff qualifiers and pairings will be posted to the MHSAA Website following the Selection Sunday Show.
11-PLAYER DIVISION 1
1. Rockford, 8-0, 81.375
2. Grand Blanc, 8-0, 80.875
3. Saline, 8-0, 80.625
4. Rochester Adams, 8-0, 78.500
5. Romeo, 7-1, 76.125
6. West Bloomfield, 7-1, 75.250
7. Troy, 8-0, 71.750
8. Brownstown Woodhaven, 8-0, 71.625
9. Belleville, 7-1, 71.375
9. Hartland, 7-1, 71.375
11. Clarkston, 7-1, 70.750
12. Sterling Heights Stevenson, 6-2, 70.625
13. Howell, 7-1, 70.500
14. Bloomfield Hills, 8-0, 70.375
15. Ann Arbor Huron, 7-1, 69.500
16. Clinton Township Chippewa Valley, 6-2, 69.125
17. Detroit Catholic Central, 6-2, 67.518
18. Dearborn Fordson, 6-2, 66.250
19. Dearborn, 6-2, 66.125
20. New Baltimore Anchor Bay, 7-1, 65.500
21. Grandville, 5-3, 62.375
22. Macomb Dakota, 5-3, 61.125
23. Holt, 6-2, 60.750
24. Canton, 5-3, 59.250
25. Traverse City West, 6-2, 59.125
26. Lapeer, 6-2, 58.875
27. Oxford, 4-4, 58.500
28. Grand Ledge, 6-2, 56.375
29. Troy Athens, 5-3, 54.839
30. Novi, 5-3, 54.750
31. Monroe, 4-4, 52.000
32. Brighton, 4-4, 51.750
33. Hudsonville, 4-4, 51.250
33. Utica, 4-4, 51.250
35. Davison, 5-3, 50.750
35. Rochester, 5-3, 50.750
37. Detroit Cass Tech, 5-3, 50.482
38. Fraser, 5-3, 49.875
39. Livonia Stevenson, 4-4, 49.625
39. Rochester Hills Stoney Creek, 3-5, 49.625
11-PLAYER DIVISION 2
1. Warren De La Salle Collegiate, 7-0, 77.643
2. South Lyon, 8-0, 76.696
3. Caledonia, 7-1, 72.500
4. Traverse City Central, 7-1, 68.500
5. Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central, 7-1, 66.500
6. Milford, 7-1, 66.250
7. Berkley, 6-2, 65.625
8. Temperance Bedford, 6-2, 64.750
9. Livonia Churchill, 6-2, 63.125
10. East Lansing, 5-3, 62.625
10. Harrison Township L'Anse Creuse, 6-2, 62.625
12. Port Huron Northern, 6-2, 61.804
13. Port Huron, 6-2, 61.250
14. Midland Dow, 5-3, 60.500
15. Muskegon Mona Shores, 6-2, 60.196
16. Portage Central, 6-2, 59.750
17. Byron Center, 6-2, 58.208
18. Dexter, 5-3, 57.250
19. Walled Lake Western, 5-3, 55.750
20. White Lake Lakeland, 5-3, 55.000
21. Bay City Western, 6-2, 53.500
22. Battle Creek Lakeview, 5-3, 53.357
23. Roseville, 5-3, 51.804
24. Grosse Pointe South, 4-4, 50.839
25. Dearborn Heights Crestwood, 6-2, 50.375
25. Waterford Mott, 4-4, 50.375
27. Saginaw Heritage, 4-4, 48.500
28. St. Clair Shores Lakeview, 4-4, 47.750
29. Fenton, 4-4, 47.625
30. Livonia Franklin, 3-5, 46.500
31. Wyandotte Roosevelt, 4-4, 46.125
32. Detroit U-D Jesuit, 4-4, 46.054
33. Jackson, 4-4, 45.000
34. Swartz Creek, 4-4, 44.750
35. Farmington, 3-5, 42.125
36. Ypsilanti Lincoln, 3-5, 42.000
37. Oak Park, 3-5, 41.750
38. North Farmington, 3-5, 41.500
39. Warren Mott, 3-5, 39.750
40. Flushing, 4-4, 39.625
11-PLAYER DIVISION 3
1. DeWitt, 7-1, 72.750
2. Detroit Martin Luther King, 7-1, 70.881
3. Mount Pleasant, 8-0, 67.375
4. Muskegon, 7-1, 65.571
5. Gibraltar Carlson, 7-1, 64.125
6. Allen Park, 6-2, 62.500
7. Harper Woods, 6-2, 59.964
8. Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice, 5-3, 57.839
9. Riverview, 8-0, 57.500
10. Stevensville Lakeshore, 6-2, 57.250
11. Zeeland West, 5-2, 55.232
12. Marquette, 6-2, 54.500
13. Cedar Springs, 6-2, 53.500
14. Mason, 6-2, 53.000
15. Warren Fitzgerald, 7-1, 52.375
16. Battle Creek Harper Creek, 6-2, 51.875
17. St Joseph, 5-3, 51.750
18. River Rouge, 5-2, 51.417
19. Haslett, 6-2, 51.125
20. Orchard Lake St. Mary's, 5-3, 50.873
21. Zeeland East, 5-3, 49.732
22. Flint Kearsley, 5-3, 49.125
23. Pinckney, 5-3, 48.375
24. Trenton, 4-4, 48.250
25. Lowell, 4-4, 46.750
26. Coopersville, 5-3, 46.125
27. Parma Western, 5-3, 45.375
28. Melvindale, 5-3, 43.000
29. Grand Rapids Northview, 4-4, 41.125
30. Mattawan, 3-5, 40.464
31. Battle Creek Central, 3-5, 39.375
32. Auburn Hills Avondale, 3-5, 39.250
33. South Lyon East, 3-5, 38.875
34. Ionia, 4-4, 38.000
35. Linden, 3-5, 37.375
36. Richland Gull Lake, 4-4, 36.875
37. Coldwater, 3-5, 36.625
38. East Grand Rapids, 3-5, 36.107
39. Muskegon Reeths-Puffer, 3-5, 35.732
40. Petoskey, 3-5, 35.125
11-PLAYER DIVISION 4
1. Chelsea, 8-0, 65.986
2. Hudsonville Unity Christian, 8-0, 64.875
3. Edwardsburg, 8-0, 63.000
4. Vicksburg, 7-1, 60.625
5. Lake Fenton, 7-1, 58.625
6. Hastings, 7-1, 58.500
7. Redford Union, 7-1, 58.375
8. Cadillac, 6-2, 56.250
9. St. Clair, 6-2, 55.179
10. Grand Rapids Christian, 5-3, 54.875
11. Livonia Clarenceville, 7-1, 54.625
12. Spring Lake, 6-2, 53.625
13. Goodrich, 6-2, 53.500
13. Madison Heights Lamphere, 7-1, 53.500
15. Freeland, 7-1, 52.625
16. Grand Rapids South Christian, 6-2, 51.250
17. Pontiac Notre Dame Prep, 7-1, 50.911
18. Croswell-Lexington, 7-1, 50.875
19. Detroit Country Day, 5-2, 47.750
20. Milan, 6-2, 47.625
21. Sparta, 6-2, 47.315
22. Plainwell, 5-3, 46.875
22. Three Rivers, 5-3, 46.875
24. Whitehall, 7-1, 46.750
25. Paw Paw, 5-3, 46.250
26. Ortonville Brandon, 5-3, 44.679
27. North Branch, 6-2, 44.625
28. Ada Forest Hills Eastern, 4-4, 43.625
29. Charlotte, 5-3, 43.500
30. Niles, 4-4, 42.125
31. Fruitport, 4-4, 41.750
32. Romulus Summit Academy North, 6-2, 41.438
33. Detroit Henry Ford, 4-4, 40.143
34. New Boston Huron, 4-4, 39.750
35. Wyoming Godwin Heights, 4-3, 36.798
36. Alma, 4-4, 36.750
37. Sault Ste. Marie, 5-3, 34.125
38. Battle Creek Pennfield, 3-5, 33.625
39. Allendale, 3-5, 33.125
39. Lansing Sexton, 3-5, 33.125
39. Romulus, 3-5, 33.125
11-PLAYER DIVISION 5
1. Grand Rapids Catholic Central, 8-0, 68.042
2. Frankenmuth, 8-0, 61.000
3. Grand Rapids West Catholic, 7-1, 60.750
4. Marine City, 8-0, 58.000
5. Portland, 6-2, 55.875
6. Comstock Park, 8-0, 54.649
7. Berrien Springs, 8-0, 52.750
8. Williamston, 5-3, 51.000
9. Kingsley, 8-0, 49.250
10. Muskegon Oakridge, 7-1, 48.768
11. Armada, 6-2, 47.125
12. Gladwin, 8-0, 46.250
13. Howard City Tri County, 7-1, 45.250
14. Belding, 5-3, 44.226
15. Kingsford, 5-3, 44.153
16. Essexville Garber, 5-3, 42.125
17. Olivet, 6-2, 41.500
18. Kalamazoo Hackett Catholic Prep, 5-3, 40.607
19. South Haven, 6-2, 40.306
20. Saginaw Swan Valley, 4-4, 39.500
21. Big Rapids, 5-3, 39.125
21. Dundee, 5-3, 39.125
23. Hopkins, 4-4, 38.315
24. Macomb Lutheran North, 5-3, 37.920
25. Clare, 5-3, 37.625
26. Corunna, 4-4, 36.875
27. Flint Powers Catholic, 2-6, 36.750
28. Richmond, 4-4, 35.375
29. St. Clair Shores South Lake, 4-4, 34.000
30. Carrollton, 4-4, 32.125
31. Parchment, 5-3, 31.393
32. Detroit Cody, 4-4, 30.750
33. Grant, 3-5, 30.583
34. Flint Hamady, 5-3, 30.554
35. Birch Run, 3-5, 30.000
36. Cheboygan, 3-5, 29.875
37. Shepherd, 4-4, 29.625
38. Flat Rock, 2-6, 28.750
39. Ogemaw Heights, 2-6, 28.500
40. Midland Bullock Creek, 3-5, 28.375
11-PLAYER DIVISION 6
1. Lansing Catholic, 8-0, 61.750
2. Reed City, 7-1, 49.750
3. Constantine, 8-0, 48.393
4. Millington, 8-0, 45.375
5. Ida, 6-2, 43.875
6. Standish-Sterling, 7-1, 43.750
7. Montague, 6-2, 43.518
8. Warren Michigan Collegiate, 6-2, 42.920
9. Detroit Southeastern, 5-3, 42.893
10. Almont, 5-3, 41.750
11. Negaunee, 7-1, 41.661
12. Dearborn Heights Robichaud, 5-3, 41.250
13. Grayling, 6-2, 40.804
14. Boyne City, 7-1, 40.643
15. Jonesville, 8-0, 40.375
16. Menominee, 5-3, 40.292
17. Clawson, 6-2, 39.875
18. Ecorse, 6-2, 39.625
19. Central Montcalm, 5-3, 38.625
20. Ovid-Elsie, 6-2, 37.589
21. Clinton Township Clintondale, 4-4, 37.250
22. Michigan Center, 7-1, 37.000
23. Clinton, 6-2, 36.607
24. Gladstone, 4-4, 36.125
25. Detroit Pershing, 5-3, 36.063
26. Manistee, 5-3, 36.036
27. Calumet, 6-2, 35.375
28. Watervliet, 5-3, 34.750
29. Durand, 5-3, 32.839
30. Detroit Edison, 5-3, 32.607
31. Detroit Collegiate Prep, 4-4, 31.330
32. Erie Mason, 5-3, 31.000
33. Adrian Madison, 5-3, 30.500
34. Morley Stanwood, 5-3, 30.232
35. Detroit Osborn, 4-4, 29.750
36. Hillsdale, 3-5, 29.250
37. Buchanan, 3-5, 28.750
38. Kent City, 5-2, 28.679
39. Lake City, 5-3, 28.554
40. Maple City Glen Lake, 3-5, 28.125
11-PLAYER DIVISION 7
1. Jackson Lumen Christi, 7-1, 57.875
2. Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central, 7-1, 54.250
3. Traverse City St. Francis, 8-0, 51.500
4. Detroit Central, 8-0, 50.482
5. Pewamo-Westphalia, 8-0, 45.429
6. Muskegon Catholic Central, 7-1, 44.500
7. Madison Heights Bishop Foley, 7-1, 42.857
8. Lawton, 8-0, 42.232
9. Ishpeming Westwood, 7-1, 38.911
10. New Lothrop, 6-2, 38.714
11. Charlevoix, 7-1, 38.518
12. Montrose, 6-2, 38.000
13. Evart, 7-1, 37.804
14. Detroit Community, 6-2, 36.938
15. Hemlock, 5-3, 36.750
16. Delton Kellogg, 5-2, 36.482
17. Lutheran Westland, 7-1, 36.375
18. Ravenna, 5-3, 36.268
19. Detroit Loyola, 3-4, 36.179
20. Bad Axe, 7-1, 35.750
20. Reese, 7-1, 35.750
22. Ithaca, 5-3, 34.375
23. Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker, 6-2, 33.500
24. McBain, 5-3, 32.554
25. Detroit Leadership Academy, 5-3, 31.875
26. Mancelona, 5-2, 31.732
27. Burton Bendle, 5-3, 30.429
28. Homer, 5-3, 30.125
29. Union City, 4-4, 29.875
30. North Muskegon, 3-5, 29.393
31. Harrison, 5-3, 28.875
32. St. Louis, 5-3, 28.375
33. Niles Brandywine, 3-5, 27.875
34. Laingsburg, 5-3, 27.679
35. Burton Bentley, 4-4, 27.554
36. East Jordan, 6-2, 26.839
37. L'Anse, 4-4, 25.250
38. Madison Heights Madison, 2-6, 23.625
39. Beaverton, 3-5, 23.375
40. Hanover-Horton, 3-5, 23.125
11-PLAYER DIVISION 8
1. Hudson, 8-0, 48.250
2. Ottawa Lake Whiteford, 7-1, 42.958
3. Addison, 8-0, 41.875
4. Carson City-Crystal, 7-1, 39.500
5. Beal City, 7-1, 38.875
6. Ubly, 8-0, 37.804
7. Clarkston Everest Collegiate, 7-1, 36.250
8. Iron Mountain, 5-3, 35.286
9. White Pigeon, 7-1, 34.181
10. Centreville, 6-2, 32.288
11. Flint Beecher, 4-4, 32.179
12. Muskegon Heights Academy, 5-3, 31.679
13. Breckenridge, 6-2, 31.625
13. Reading, 6-2, 31.625
15. Frankfort, 6-2, 31.375
16. Marine City Cardinal Mooney, 6-2, 29.875
17. Sand Creek, 5-3, 29.625
18. Fowler, 5-3, 29.446
19. Marlette, 5-3, 29.179
20. Whitmore Lake, 5-3, 29.000
21. Harbor Beach, 5-3, 28.929
22. Mount Clemens, 5-3, 28.688
23. Saugatuck, 5-3, 27.946
24. Cass City, 4-4, 27.875
24. Petersburg Summerfield, 5-3, 27.875
26. Cassopolis, 5-3, 27.538
27. Holton, 5-3, 27.411
28. White Cloud, 4-4, 25.286
29. Rochester Hills Lutheran Northwest, 4-4, 25.125
30. Bark River-Harris, 5-3, 24.750
31. Decatur, 3-5, 23.625
32. Allen Park Cabrini, 4-4, 23.375
33. Saginaw Nouvel, 3-5, 23.250
34. Dansville, 4-4, 22.679
35. Riverview Gabriel Richard, 2-5, 22.268
36. Vassar, 3-5, 21.750
37. Coleman, 4-4, 20.625
38. Melvindale Academy for Business & Tech, 3-5, 20.563
39. Ishpeming, 3-4, 19.589
40. Unionville-Sebewaing, 2-6, 19.250
8-PLAYER DIVISION 1
1. Adrian Lenawee Christian, 8-0, 38.179
2. Suttons Bay, 8-0, 36.875
3. Martin, 8-0, 35.125
4. Deckerville, 7-0, 33.893
5. Rogers City, 8-0, 33.411
6. Britton Deerfield, 8-0, 33.196
7. Indian River Inland Lakes, 8-0, 32.500
8. Pickford, 7-1, 32.054
9. Munising, 6-2, 31.554
10. Mendon, 6-2, 30.750
11. Lawrence, 6-2, 30.000
12. Newberry, 6-2, 28.179
13. Rudyard, 6-2, 27.804
14. Tekonsha, 6-2, 27.750
15. Mesick, 5-3, 27.357
16. Ontonagon, 5-3, 26.125
17. Genesee, 5-2, 26.054
18. Vestaburg, 5-3, 25.982
19. Merrill, 4-4, 25.625
20. Kingston, 4-4, 24.661
21. Norway, 4-4, 24.500
22. Stephenson, 4-4, 24.125
23. Brethren, 3-5, 23.089
24. Marcellus, 4-4, 23.000
8-PLAYER DIVISION 2
1. Au Gres-Sims, 8-0, 34.750
2. Marion, 7-1, 34.732
3. Portland St. Patrick, 8-0, 34.500
4. Kinde North Huron, 8-0, 34.375
5. Morrice, 8-0, 34.268
6. Powers North Central, 8-0, 34.000
7. Colon, 7-1, 32.482
8. Pellston, 7-1, 31.250
9. Crystal Falls Forest Park, 7-1, 30.500
10. Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart, 6-2, 29.571
11. Mio, 6-2, 29.250
12. Lake Linden-Hubbell, 6-2, 28.500
13. Climax-Scotts, 5-3, 28.107
14. Peck, 5-3, 26.125
15. Bay City All Saints, 6-2, 25.500
16. Hillman, 5-3, 25.375
17. Gaylord St Mary, 5-3, 25.054
18. Bear Lake, 5-3, 23.232
19. Athens, 4-4, 22.732
20. Eben Junction Superior Central, 4-4, 21.875
20. North Adams-Jerome, 4-4, 21.875
22. Fulton, 3-5, 21.750
23. Hale, 3-5, 21.375
24. Waldron, 5-3, 21.250
PHOTO A pair of Plainwell defenders bring down an Otsego ball carrier during Plainwell's 21-6 Week 1 win. (Photo by Gary Shook.)