Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012
October 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.
So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:
How would you have done so differently?
And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.
This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.
Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.
Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.
Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.
There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”
Observations and answers
A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.
Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season.
No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.
The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.
Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.
And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way.
Their journeys begin Friday.
1st & Goal: 2021 Week 3 Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
September 9, 2021
Every week of the football regular season we learn something more about who we might be watching when playoffs roll around in November.
And we should know quite a bit once we’ve reached the end of Week 3 this weekend.
League play will have begun in almost every conference across the state, and with some particularly intriguing matchups of possible state contenders today and Saturday – a few of which we detail below.
Once again, more than 150 games will be viewable live on MHSAA.tv, with Bally Sports Detroit broadcasting Friday's Detroit Cass Tech/Detroit Martin Luther King matchup on its PLUS cable channel and State Champs! Sports Network streaming live Saturday's Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook Kingswood/Waterford Our Lady of the Lakes matchup. See the full schedule from the MHSAA Score Center.
Bay & Thumb
Grand Blanc (2-0) at Midland Dow (2-0)
Add next week’s Davison game as well, and only a few statewide can match the strength of Grand Blanc’s opening schedule, which has included wins over East Lansing and Grand Rapids Forest Hills Central so far. Last season’s game against Dow wasn’t played because of the late start to the regular season, but the two previous matchups were both Grand Blanc wins – but decided by a combined five points. Dow followed an impressive opening win over Fenton with a shutout of Flint Carman-Ainsworth last week, and moving to 3-0 against the Division 1 Bobcats would be put the Chargers firmly on the Division 2 radar.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Harrison (2-0) at Gladwin (2-0), Millington (2-0) at Hemlock (1-1), Ortonville Brandon (2-0) at Lake Fenton (2-0), Fraser (2-0) at Port Huron Northern (2-0).
Greater Detroit
Detroit Cass Tech (2-0) at Detroit Martin Luther King (1-1)
Simply put, this could end up as the premier game statewide this regular season. Both went to Muskegon County last weekend and came back with big wins over annual title contenders, King 40-19 over two-time reigning Division 2 champion Muskegon Mona Shores and Cass Tech 49-14 over a Muskegon program coming off its fifth straight Semifinals appearance with four consecutive Finals also during that run. High-profile talent will be everywhere, but of course many eyes will be on the quarterbacks – King’s Dante Moore and Cass Tech’s Leeshaun Mumpfield have been making plenty of headlines already. The Technicians won both meetings last season as the teams have taken turns defeating (or on those few occasions with multiple matchups sweeping) their top rival over the last seven seasons.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Belleville (2-0) at Livonia Churchill (2-0), Romeo (2-0) at Macomb Dakota (1-1), Harper Woods (2-0) at Orchard Lake St. Mary’s (2-0), Detroit Loyola (2-0) at Pontiac Notre Dame Prep (2-0).
Mid-Michigan
East Lansing (1-1) at DeWitt (1-1)
This has been viewed as the premier matchup in the Lansing area going back a few seasons – although they didn’t play each other last year because of the late start – and East Lansing in Division 2 and DeWitt as reigning champion in Division 3 both have major postseason aspirations again. But first things first, and the winner tonight will take a notable step forward in what’s shaping up to be the strongest Capital Area Activities Conference Blue in a while. The Trojans lost by six in their high-scoring opener to Grand Blanc (see above) and followed with a 33-7 win last week over a Fenton team that lost only once in 2020. The Panthers are coming off a 20-17 last-minute loss at Portland – but DeWitt’s offense is capable of supercharging again like when it scored 47 against Traverse City Central in Week 1.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Hartland (2-0) at Brighton (1-1), Northville (1-1) at Howell (2-0), Williamston (1-1) at Mason (1-1), Battle Creek Central (1-1) at Lansing Everett (2-0).
Northern Lower Peninsula
Traverse City West (2-0) at Cadillac (2-0)
West vs. Traverse City Central has long been viewed as “The Game” in the Big North Conference, but Cadillac reaching last season’s Division 4 Final has certainly added an argument or two – and it will only get stronger if the Vikings can defeat the Titans tonight for the first time since 2014. Both opened with notable victories – Cadillac over Reed City and West over Midland – and followed up with good wins in Week 2. West surely won’t be looking past this week even with its annual rivalry matchup with Central coming up next, while Cadillac’s meeting with Central isn’t until Week 6. But the winner tonight will have some serious work already accomplished in the league title race when it meets the reigning champ Trojans.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Maple City Glen Lake (1-1) at Boyne City (2-0), Mancelona (2-0) at Elk Rapids (1-1), Lake City (2-0) at Manton (2-0), Oscoda (2-0) at Frankfort (1-1).
Southeast & Border
Hudson (2-0) at Clinton (2-0)
With wins over annual state power Ithaca and reigning Tri-County Conference champ Erie Mason, Hudson has been one of the early stories of the 2021 season. The story has a chance to get even better this week as the Tigers take on reigning Division 6 runner-up Clinton in the Lenawee County Athletic Association opener. With a combined 111 points over its first two games, Clinton’s offense quickly has found its usual high-powered stride but will have an interesting test against a Hudson defense that’s given up just 14 points, shut out Mason and was similarly tough much of last year minus its season-ending playoff defeat.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Adrian Madison (2-0) at Ottawa Lake Whiteford (2-0), Saline (2-0) at Ypsilanti Lincoln (1-1), Carleton Airport (1-1) at Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (2-0), Union City (1-1) at Jonesville (2-0).
Southwest Corridor
River Rouge (1-1) at Battle Creek Lakeview (2-0)
This is another great test for two teams that have had plenty of success the last two seasons. River Rouge goes back on the road after falling 38-29 in a late-added matchup with reigning Division 2 runner-up Warren De La Salle Collegiate. Lakeview looks early like a player in the competitive Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference, and facing the reigning Division 3 runner-up will only prepare the Spartans more. The Panthers, playing as independents, have trips to Ohio and back west to Portage Northern lined up later this regular season as they look to build for a possible third-straight trip to the Finals.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Edwardsburg (2-0) at Niles (2-0), Portage Northern (0-2) at St. Joseph (2-0), Saugatuck (1-1) at Niles Brandywine (2-2), Comstock (2-0) at Cassopolis (1-1).
Upper Peninsula
Kingsley (2-0) at Sault Ste. Marie (2-0)
Sault Ste. Marie found a new home last season in the Northern Michigan Football League, playing in the Legends division and going 3-1 in league play with that lone defeat 40-6 to Kingsley. They welcome the Stags for the rematch having yet to surrender a point with shutouts of St. Ignace and Tawas so far. Kingsley similarly has given up just eight points, in its opener to McBain, before shutting out Glen Lake last week. But the key stat might be that the Stags haven’t been held under 36 points in a game since a 2019 Semifinal loss to eventual Division 5 champion Lansing Catholic.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Marquette (1-1) at Escanaba (1-1), Menominee (2-0) at Gladstone (1-1), Calumet (0-2) at Ishpeming Westwood (2-0). SATURDAY Iron Mountain (1-1) at Houghton (1-1).
West Michigan
Muskegon (1-1) at Zeeland West (1-0)
The Ottawa-Kent Conference reshuffled prior to the 2020 season, and the result was as predicted – the Green is now one of the strongest leagues in the state. The success last season of Muskegon High and Mona Shores is noted above, with Zeeland West winning a Finals title as recently as 2015, Zeeland East reaching the Semifinals in 2018, and among others Reeths-Puffer seemingly on the verge of taking a step the last few seasons and Grand Rapids Union off to a 2-0 start this fall. If last season was an indication though, this will always be a game that plays into the league title hunt – Muskegon won the 2020 meeting 15-14 on the way to finishing second.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Grand Rapids West Catholic (2-0) at Allendale (2-0), Grandville (1-1) at Caledonia (2-0), Hudsonville Unity Christian (2-0) at Hamilton (2-0), Ravenna (2-0) at Whitehall (1-1).
8-Player
Genesee (2-0) at Deckerville (1-0)
The Eagles long ago established themselves as among the elite in 8-player statewide, and last week’s 50-26 win over Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart seems a sign that’s continuing this fall. Deckerville has won all three of its matchups with Genesee since the latter moved to 8-player in 2018, but last season’s game was a competitive 56-36 – and the Wolves are piling up points this fall with a combined 102 over a 56-52 win over Mayville and 46-40 victory over Kingston to start the season.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Mio (2-0) at Au Gres-Sims (2-0), Suttons Bay (2-0) at Merrill (1-1). SATURDAY Kinde North Huron (2-0) at Mount Pleasant Sacred Heart (1-1), Norway (1-1) at Lake Linden-Hubbell (2-0).
PHOTO: Detroit Cass Tech’s Julius Faulkner (18) breaks a tackle and prepares to take on another defender during his team’s Week 1 win against Southfield Arts & Technology. (Photo by Quintin Love Jr.)