Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012
October 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.
So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:
How would you have done so differently?
And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.
This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.
Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.
Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.
Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.
There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”
Observations and answers
A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.
Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season.
No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.
The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.
Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.
And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way.
Their journeys begin Friday.
1st & Goal: 2021 Week 1 Preview
By
Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor
August 26, 2021
Welcome to what might be the most anticipated opening weekend in Michigan high school football history.
No one is saying life is back to pre-pandemic normal, of course. But after last football season saw multiple delays, an abbreviated regular season and altered playoff format, it’s hard not to be excited about most things beginning “as they always have” this weekend across our state.
And there are plenty of opportunities to dig in and enjoy.
Check out your local game, or one of those highlighted below – including a number of games from three showcase events, the Battle at the Big House at University of Michigan, the Xenith Prep Kick Off Classic at Wayne State and the Vehicle City Gridiron Classic at Kettering’s Atwood Stadium. There are also plenty of opportunities to tune in from home – more than 150 games will be streamed live on the NFHS Network or by partner Bally Sports Detroit, including two televised live on BSD’s primary cable channel. (Click for details.)
As in seasons past, our weekly football previews will point out intriguing games from every region of the state – opportunities to see a great story unfold no matter where fans live or are visiting that weekend. Records below are from the 2020 season. (Games from the aforementioned showcases are listed in the region of one of the competitors.)
Bay & Thumb
Davison (10-1) vs. Clarkston (7-1), Friday at U-M
A number of teams from the I-75 corridor and particularly the Flint suburbs will be playing showcase games this weekend, and this might be the biggest as well as a preview of a more significant rematch to come. Clarkston’s lone loss last season came by seven to Grand Blanc in a District Semifinal – a week before the Wolves would have faced Davison, which suffered its only defeat at Ford Field against West Bloomfield in the Division 1 championship game. The Cardinals also were Division 1 champs in 2019, with Clarkston most recently making the Finals as Division 1 runner-up in 2018.
Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Lapeer (3-4) vs. Grand Rapids Catholic Central (10-0) at U-M, Frankenmuth (11-1) vs. Goodrich (6-2) at Atwood Stadium. FRIDAY East Lansing (8-1) vs. Grand Blanc (7-2) at Atwood Stadium, Midland Dow (5-3) vs. Fenton (7-1) at U-M.
Greater Detroit
Detroit Catholic Central (9-1) vs. Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (3-4), Thursday at WSU
This might be the premier matchup of the Wayne State games, and also one where a 2020 record should be ignored when making that argument. Chippewa Valley may have lost four games last season, but those defeats came by a combined 21 points and none by more than nine. DCC, meanwhile, suffered its only loss to Davison, in a Division 1 Regional Final. The Shamrocks were especially tough defensively last fall, giving up 10 points per game, while winning a Detroit Catholic League Central that sent Warren De La Salle Collegiate to the Division 2 championship game.
Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Canton (8-1) vs. Dearborn Fordson (5-3) at Wayne State, Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice (7-2) at Macomb Dakota (6-2). FRIDAY Oak Park (5-6) at Orchard Lake St. Mary's (2-4). SATURDAY Southfield Arts & Technology (3-4) vs. Detroit Cass Tech (8-1) at Wayne State.
Mid-Michigan
DeWitt (12-0) vs. Traverse City Central (9-2), Thursday at U-M
The Panthers are coming off their first Finals championship, claiming the Division 3 title last season, and might be even better on offense this fall with multiple playmakers returning after the team scored at least 37 points in all but one game. Central missed making Ford Field by one win, falling to eventual champion Muskegon Mona Shores in a Division 2 Semifinal. The Trojans scored at least 30 points in all but one game last season and should be a handful in an intriguing Michigan Stadium clash.
Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Olivet (7-2) at Charlotte (2-5). FRIDAY Freeland (8-2) at Clare (7-1), Fowler (6-3) at Carson City-Crystal (6-2), Lansing Everett (did not play) at Lansing Sexton (did not play).
Northern Lower Peninsula
Reed City (8-0) at Cadillac (7-3), Thursday
Rewind again to when the MHSAA football season concluded at Ford Field, and Cadillac was one of the surprises of championship weekend. The Vikings reached the Finals for the first time, and while being held scoreless by Detroit Country Day in the Division 4 championship game they also put up one of their most impressive defensive performances holding the Yellowjackets to 13 points. Reed City’s story, though, had to feel a little unfinished – after starting out with eight straight wins, the Coyotes’ last playoff game before the COVID-related break in November was canceled, as was their Regional Final when play resumed in January.
Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Traverse City West (6-2) vs. Midland (8-1) at U-M, Beaverton (6-2) at Lake City (2-4), Houghton Lake (4-3) at Maple City Glen Lake (5-3), Kingsley (8-0) at McBain (6-1).
Southeast & Border
New Lothrop (11-0) at Jackson Lumen Christi (5-5), Thursday
These two have made a combined six trips to Ford Field with five championships over the last five seasons. New Lothrop is coming off its second Division 7 title in three seasons in January, while Lumen Christi was stopped short in the Regional Finals – a week before it would have met New Lothrop with a Finals bid on the line. This is also an intriguing matchup between the state’s longest-serving and third-winningest football coach, Lumen’s Herb Brogan (373-89 over 42 seasons), against a younger leader on the path to join the all-time greats in Clint Galvas (129-15 over 13).
Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Ithaca (8-1) at Hudson (4-4). FRIDAY Ottawa Lake Whiteford (6-3) at Blissfield (8-1), Michigan Center (6-2) at Homer (5-3), Saline (8-2) vs. Hudsonville (5-3) at U-M.
Southwest Corridor
Portage Central (3-5) at Stevensville Lakeshore (6-3) , Thursday
After not awarding a league champion last season because of the abbreviated regular-season schedule, the Southwestern Michigan Athletic Conference gets rolling immediately with two frequent contenders facing off. Central and Lakeshore didn’t play last season, but Central has won two straight in the otherwise-annual series.
Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Lake Odessa Lakewood (3-4) at Battle Creek Pennfield (5-4), Grand Ledge (5-3) at Coldwater (5-2), Cassopolis (2-5) at Schoolcraft (9-2). FRIDAY Battle Creek Lakeview (5-3) vs. Battle Creek Harper Creek (5-3).
Upper Peninsula
Negaunee (6-4) at Iron Mountain (7-2), Thursday
Once the regular season finally got started last fall, the Upper Peninsula proved quickly captivating as the status of best team north of Mackinac Bridge seemed to change hands weekly. Iron Mountain was the last remaining in the playoffs, reaching the Division 8 Regional Finals and missing the Semifinals with a one-point defeat. Both of these teams stand to be in the conversation again not only across the peninsula and statewide but more locally as the Western Peninsula Athletic Conference Copper (and Silver) reinstates league play after also not awarding a 2020 champ.
Keep an eye on these FRIDAY Gladstone (2-4) at Calumet (4-4), Bark River-Harris (5-3) at Gwinn (4-4), Houghton (2-3) at Ishpeming Westwood (5-2), Sault Ste. Marie (6-3) at St. Ignace (1-6).
West Michigan
Edwardsburg (9-1) at Montague (12-0), Thursday
The anticipation for this matchup should rival any this weekend including for the games being played at the three opening showcases. Montague put together one of the most impressive 2020 runs in any division on the way to claiming the Division 6 title but enters this fall with a new coach and quarterback. Edwardsburg missed returning to Ford Field with a two-point loss to Cadillac in a Division 4 Semifinal and likely would have reached double-digit wins for a sixth-straight season if not for the abbreviated schedule.
Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Zeeland West (5-1) at East Grand Rapids (6-4), Muskegon Mona Shores (12-0) at Lowell (4-4). FRIDAY Grand Rapids South Christian (8-2) at Grand Rapids Christian (4-4), Hudsonville Unity Christian (7-0) at Hopkins (5-2).
8-Player
Gaylord St. Mary (7-2) at Pickford (7-2), Friday
These two won’t see each other again when the playoffs roll around – Pickford is in Division 1 this season and St. Mary in Division 2. But if recent history serves, this opener could be a primer for the kind of matchup both could earn a few months from now. Pickford made the Regional Finals last season and has pushed at least that far into the playoffs the last five seasons. Gaylord St. Mary is coming off two straight Regional Finals trips, both in Division 1 as well before moving into Division 2 for this fall.
Keep an eye on these THURSDAY Mendon (6-2 in 11-player) at Vandercook Lake (4-2). FRIDAY Merrill (6-2) at Marion (8-2), Wyoming Tri-unity Christian (3-5) at Martin (8-2), Onaway (6-1) at Indian River Inland Lakes (8-2).
PHOTO: Football stadium lights, like these last season at Muskegon High School, will brighten the sky again for the 2021 season beginning this weekend. (Photo by Tim Reilly.)