Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012

October 24, 2012

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.

So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:

How would you have done so differently?

And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.

This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.

Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.

Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.

Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.

There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”

Observations and answers

A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.

Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season. 

No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.

The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.

Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.

And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way. 

Their journeys begin Friday.

1st & Goal: 8-Player Finals Preview

By Geoff Kimmerly
MHSAA.com senior editor

January 15, 2021

Four undefeated teams will be the first to play for championships to cap the longest football season in MHSAA history.

Adrian Lenawee Christian and Suttons Bay in Division 1 and Portland St. Patrick and Powers North Central in Division 2 will take the field at Brighton’s Legacy Center on Saturday with this season’s two 8-player titles on the line. They returned to action last week after a nearly two-month pause due to COVID-19.

Suttons Bay and Portland St. Patrick are the 2019 runners-up in Divisions 1 and 2, respectively. Adrian Lenawee Christian is new to the format this season and like Suttons Bay is playing for its first football title. North Central, meanwhile, is the only program to win multiple 8-player championships since the format was added in 2011, and the Jets are back at the Finals for the first time since their repeat run in 2016.

Kickoff for the Division 2 game is 2 p.m., with the Division 1 game following approximately 5:30 p.m. Spectators remain limited, but both games will be broadcast live on the FOX Sports Detroit Facebook page, and replayed on FOX Sports Detroit’s primary channel Jan. 21 beginning at 8 p.m. Audio of both games will be streamed live on MHSAANetwork.com.

Below is a look at all four finalists. Team “rankings” are based on their playoff-point averages heading into the postseason.

Division 1

ADRIAN LENAWEE CHRISTIAN
Record/rank:
 10-0, No. 3
Coach: Bill Wilharms, eighth season (59-21)
League finish: First in Southern Central Athletic Association A
Championship history: Has never played in an MHSAA Final.
Best wins: 49-0 over No. 1 Morrice in Regional Final, 47-12 over No. 8 Martin in Semifinal, 78-14 over No. 4 Mayville in Regional Semifinal, 24-6 over Division 2 No. 5 Colon.
Players to watch: RB/LB Jameson Chesser, 5-10/170, sr. (1,179 yards/29 TDs rushing, 506 yards/4 TDs receiving); QB/CB Landon Gallant, 5-10/155, sr. (1,331 yards/23 TDs passing, 388 yards/6 TDs rushing); OG/NG Coby Kegerreis, 5-8/185, jr.; C/DE Joey Breckel, 6-1/240, sr.
Outlook: Lenawee Christian’s 8-player debut couldn’t have gone better on the field, as the Cougars have won only one game by fewer than 35 points. That was an 18-point victory over league foe Colon, last season’s Division 1 champion, and Saturday the Cougars can make it a repeat for the SCAA Division A. Chesser – who also has thrown for 178 yards and two touchdowns on 17 attempts – made the all-state first team and scored five times against Martin in the Semifinal. Kegerreis also made the all-state first team, as did junior kicker Clay Ayers (41 of 48 XP), and Breckel earned honorable mention. Those four and Gallant also start on a defense that’s given up only 46 points over 10 games.

SUTTONS BAY
Record/rank:
 10-0, No. 1
Coach: Garrick Opie, third season (30-2)
League finish: Does not play in a league.
Championship history: 8-player Division 1 runner-up 2019, 11-player Division 6 runner-up 2004.
Best wins: 38-22 over No. 8 Gaylord St. Mary in Regional Final, 35-0 over Brethren, 39-20 and 44-0 (Regional Semifinal) over Whittemore-Prescott.
Players to watch: RB/DB Hugh Periard, 6-0/175, jr. (799 yards/13 TDs rushing, 217 yards/3 TDs receiving); QB/DB Nate Devol, 6-0/175, sr. (901 yards/15 TDs passing, 301 yards/2 TDs rushing, 4 interceptions on defense); RB/LB Shawn Bramer, 6-2/195, jr. (622 yards/11 TDs rushing, 60 yards/1 TD receiving); OL/LB Michael Wittman, 6-4/230, sr.
Outlook: Suttons Bay is returning to the Division 1 championship game after falling short in a 26-14 defeat to Colon in 2019. The Norsemen have won all of their games by double digits, with a defense giving up only 7.6 points per game and a rushing attack that has piled up 2,506 yards over nine games (last week’s Semifinal win was a forfeit by Indian River Inland Lakes). Wittman made the all-state first team as a linebacker. Starting tight ends Jake Murphy and Brayden Opie add another element to the attack – both have caught 15 passes, with Murphy scoring on five and Opie on six.

Division 2

PORTLAND ST. PATRICK
Record/rank:
 10-0, No. 1
Coach: Patrick Russman, 13th season (96-39)
League finish: Does not play in the league.  
Championship history: 8-player Division 2 runner-up 2019 and 2017, 11-player Class D champion 1992, runner-up 1997 and 1991.
Best wins: 44-34 over No. 5 Colon in Regional Final, 34-12 over No. 7 Kinde North Huron in Semifinal, 52-19 over No. 4 Burr Oak, 26-22 over Division 1 No. 6 Merrill.
Players to watch: QB/DB Connor Cross, 6-3/190, sr. (1,245 yards/21 TDs passing, 429 yards/9 TDs rushing, 4 interceptions on defense); RB/LB Derec Fedewa, 5-10/185, jr. (1,369 yards/19 TDs, 311 yards/5 TDs receiving); WR/LB Braxton Teachworth, 6-3/190, jr. (193 yards/3 TDs  receiving); OL/DL Chase Fitzsimmons, 6-3/240, sr.
Outlook: The Shamrocks have come within a win of the Division 2 championship twice over the last four seasons, and will make a run at it again with an offense featuring all-state first teamers at quarterback and running back. Cross and Fedewa have piled up big numbers this fall, as has leading receiving Shane Cook (502 yards/9 TDs), for a team scoring 43.5 points per game. But the key Saturday could be an opportunistic defense that has taken advantage of 28 turnovers – including 19 fumble recoveries – and allowed conversions on only 19 percent of opponent third downs. Fitzsimmons and Teachworth earned all-state honorable mentions, Teachworth at linebacker.

POWERS NORTH CENTRAL
Record/rank:
 10-0, No. 2
Coach: Leo Gorzinski, third season (28-3)
League finish: First in Great Lakes Eight Conference West
Championship history: 8-player champion 2016 and 2015.
Best wins: 55-8 over No. 3 Cedarville in Regional Final, 50-2 over No. 8 Marion in Semifinal, 50-8 over Stephenson, 52-8 over Lake Linden-Hubbell in Regional Semifinal.
Players to watch: QB/LB Luke Gorzinski, 5-9/170, soph. (1,163 yards/18 TDs passing, 909 yards/20 TDs rushing); WR/LB Ian Gorzinski, 5-11/165, sr. (362 yards/5 TDs receiving, 101 yards/3 TDs rushing); RB/LB Alex Naser, 5-8/165, jr. (312 yards/7 TDs rushing, 301 yards/7 TDs receiving, 2 TDs on kickoff returns); OL/DL Carter Eichmeier, 6-2/190, sr.
Outlook: The Jets will match St. Patrick’s all-state quarterback with the other all-state first-team signal-caller this season in Luke Gorzinski, who is coming off four touchdown runs and a scoring pass in the Semifinal. He keys an offense that has outscored opponents 280-8 in the first quarter alone and 539-60 in nine games overall (one win was a forfeit). Eichmeier also made the all-state first team as North Central won all but one of its games by more than 40 points. In addition to the sparse points given up, the Jets are allowing only 114 yards per game.