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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012

October 24, 2012

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.

So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:

How would you have done so differently?

And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.

This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.

Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.

Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.

Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.

There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”

Observations and answers

A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.

Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season. 

No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.

The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.

Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.

And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way. 

Their journeys begin Friday.

1st & Goal: Playoff Week 1 in Review

November 2, 2020

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

This already-unusual 2020 football season introduced the first nearly all-in football playoffs this weekend with plenty of new in terms of format – but also a lot of the unpredictability we expect from this time of year.

For the first time, with fields doubled, 11-player teams were placed in eight-team Districts and 8-player teams in eight-team Regionals. And going by seeds, 35 games were upsets, including two by No. 8 seeds over No. 1s, four by seven seeds over No. 2s and 13 by six seeds over No. 3s.

There also were 66 rematches of regular-season games – with 13 different winners the second time around.

Below is a glance at results that intrigued the most from this first playoff week. Historical context is based in part on data at Michigan-football.com.

8-Player

Division 1

HEADLINER Rochester Adams 39, Rochester 7 Their Week 1 game didn’t happen, of course, and Rochester (6-1) went on to its first perfect regular season since 1993. But Adams (3-4) ran its winning streak over its rival to 23 with its best scoring output of the season. Click for more from the Oakland Press. 

District Digest Novi 41, Brighton 27 Their opening night meeting was canceled, with the Bulldogs (4-3) getting the forfeit win. Before that, Brighton had won seven of their last eight matchups with the Wildcats (3-4) – with Novi’s win during that string coming in the 2016 playoffs. Grand Blanc 28, Lake Orion 14 The Bobcats (6-1) claimed their first playoff win since 2012, guaranteeing their best record since 2017 and in three fewer games than both of the last two seasons. Dearborn 20, Monroe 15 The Pioneers (3-4) joined Novi among No. 6 seeds that upset No. 3s, giving up their fewest points since the season opener. Monroe did finish 4-3, a win better than 2019. Romeo 20, New Baltimore Anchor Bay 6 Romeo was another No. 6 seed to prevail, but Anchor Bay (4-3) still had plenty to celebrate this fall with a three-win improvement and league title.

Division 2

HEADLINER Oak Park 35, Grosse Pointe South 27 The Knights (1-6) couldn’t have picked a better moment to have their best of the season, winning their first game and scoring nearly half of their points for this fall in front of a FOX Sports Detroit audience. Oak Park was the eighth seed in the District and had put up only 45 points heading into the game. Grosse Pointe South (4-3) finished its season with two of its losses by eight points or fewer. Click for more from the Detroit Free Press and see highlights below from FSD.

District Digest Lowell 35, Byron Center 28 The Red Arrows (4-3) avenged a 14-point Week 7 loss to the Bulldogs (5-2), who went on to share the Ottawa-Kent Conference White title. Lowell also broke its three-game losing streak to close the regular season. Swartz Creek 28, Flint Carman-Ainsworth 6 The Dragons (5-2) added to a big turnaround season with their first playoff win. Dexter 56, Ypsilanti Lincoln 28 The Dreadnaughts (5-2) also earned their first playoff victory after near-misses the last two seasons. Ypsilanti Community 21, Dearborn Heights Crestwood 7 The Grizzlies (4-3) earned their first playoff victory as well and guaranteed at least their second-best season in eight as a program.

Division 3

HEADLINER Battle Creek Harper Creek 30, Parma Western 13 Their annual regular-season meeting was scheduled for Week 3, but Harper Creek (5-2) had to wait until the playoffs to break a recent two-game losing streak to the Panthers (4-3). The Beavers are now two wins better than both of the last two seasons. Click for more from the Battle Creek Enquirer. 

District Digest Lansing Waverly 39, St. Johns 7 With their first playoff win, the Warriors (4-3) also guaranteed their best finish since at least 2012. Orchard Lake St. Mary’s 38, Pinckney 14 It’s not rare for a Catholic League Central team to have a so-so record after a highly-competitive regular season and come out strong in the playoffs, and St. Mary’s (2-3) is the latest example with this win over the Pirates (4-3). River Rouge 21, Gibraltar Carlson 0 The reigning Division 3 champion Panthers (5-1) picked up their fifth shutout of the season, halting a Marauders offense that had averaged nearly 34 points per game as the team went 4-2 during the regular season. Allen Park 18, Trenton 7 The Jaguars (5-2) made it three straight seasons with playoff wins over the league rival Trojans (3-4).

Division 4

HEADLINER Ada Forest Hills Eastern 42, Allendale 0 The Hawks (4-3) missed the playoffs the last four seasons and hadn’t finished with a winning record since 2015. But they’ll finish at least .500 this fall thanks to their second shutout over the last four weeks, against an Allendale team that did open this season 3-0 before a tough final month. See highlights below from FOX 17.

District Digest Coopersville 26, Sparta 14 The Broncos (3-4) earned their first playoff win since 2007 as another No. 6 seed winner. Vicksburg 17, Plainwell 12 These teams didn’t get to play their Wolverine Conference game this fall, but Vicksburg (5-2) handed Plainwell (3-3) its only loss this season on the field. Madison Heights Lamphere 43, Bloomfield Hills Cranbrook Kingswood 0 The Rams (7-0) earned their first playoff win since 2009, continuing their best run since at least that fall. Croswell-Lexington 40, Imlay City 26 The Pioneers (6-1) tied their winningest season since 2012 with their second victory this fall over Imlay City (4-3).

Division 5

HEADLINER Belding 32, Hopkins 18 The Black Knights’ surge continued as they’ve gone on to outscore three opponents by a combined 140-21 since losing to Hopkins by six in Week 7. That first-meeting win earned the Vikings (5-2) the O-K Silver championship, but this rematch allowed Belding (6-1) to move on in one of the strongest Districts in the state, regardless of division. Click for more from the Greenville Daily News.

District Digest Kingsford 13, Ogemaw Heights 6 The Flivvers (4-2) improved to 4-1 on the field, reducing their points-allowed average this fall to 12.4 per game. Howard City Tri County 33, Central Montcalm 7 All four Vikings losses this season have come by seven points or fewer, and this avenged a 7-0 defeat to the Hornets (4-3) in Week 7. Olivet 20, Hillsdale 17 The Eagles (6-1) emerged with a solid win in another strong top-to-bottom District, as the No. 6-seeded Hornets finished 4-3. Richmond 38, Macomb Lutheran North 7 Add the Blue Devils (3-4) as well to the No. 6 seeds that won over the weekend as they upset Lutheran North (4-3).

Division 6 

HEADLINER Clare 41, Kent City 6 The Pioneers moved to 7-0 by winning this matchup of league champions and added to a defensive effort that’s allowed just 8.6 points per game. Kent City (5-2) had averaged nearly 31 points per game entering the weekend. Click for more from the Mount Pleasant Morning Sun and see below for highlights from MI Sports Now. 

District Digest Negaunee 28, Gladstone 14 The Miners’ two losses on the field this season were by a combined four points, and with this win they avenged the first. Harrison 22, Sanford Meridian 14 Harrison (5-2) also avenged a loss after falling to Meridian (4-3) by 20 points in Week 6. Parchment 42, Coloma 40 The Panthers (3-4) started 0-4, with that fourth defeat by 11 to Coloma (4-3) in Week 7. Adrian Madison 34, Quincy 30 The Trojans (6-1) tied their most wins in a season since 2009 with their first ever in the playoffs.

Division 7

HEADLINER Evart 23, Houghton Lake 18 The Wildcats’ first playoff win since 2012 guaranteed its winningest season since 2016 and earned Evart (5-2) a rematch with Highland Conference champion McBain. Evart has won five straight since losing the first McBain game in Week 5. Houghton Lake finished 4-3, with two of those losses to the Wildcats. Click for more from the Cadillac News.

District Digest Madison Heights Bishop Foley 27, Madison Heights Madison 24 After beating Madison 34-2 in Week 9, Bishop Foley (6-1) had to rally to move on in the rematch a week later. Detroit Central 26, Detroit Community 22 The Trail Blazers (5-2) bounced back from two straight losses, while Community ended a season that saw three of its last four losses come by eight points or fewer. Bad Axe 19, Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port Laker 12 Laker (4-3) made this rematch closer than Bad Axe’s 21-point win two weeks ago, but the Hatchets (5-2) were able to get to five wins for the first time since 2014. Cass City 36, Reese 26 The Rockets had come a long way since Cass City’s 42-3 win in Week 5, but the Red Hawks (7-0) held on despite giving up a point shy of half their season total.

Division 8

HEADLINER Gwinn 24, East Jordan 20 The Modeltowners earned their first playoff victory since 1999, improving to 4-3 after winning just a game a year ago – another wonderful tribute to late coach Dion Brown, who died unexpectedly in January. Click for more from the Traverse City Record-Eagle.

District Digest Unionville-Sebewaing 57, Marlette 14 The Patriots (5-2) are 12 points over two games from being undefeated and went over 50 points for the second time this fall. Detroit Leadership 8, Melvindale Academy of Business & Tech 6 The Cougars (4-3) earned the first playoff win in their five years as a program. Bark River-Harris 54, St. Ignace 20 The Broncos (4-2) opened this fall with two losses but haven’t lost since, in this win putting up one-third of their points for the entire season. Saranac 14, Potterville 0 After not winning since opening night, Saranac picked up its first playoff victory since 2011.

8-Player

Division 1 

HEADLINER Indian River Inland Lakes 34, Munising 22 After two straight winless seasons in 11-player, and three over its final four, Inland Lakes improved to 6-1 this fall by ending Munising’s first 8-player season at 4-3. This also was Inland Lakes’ first win in the playoffs since 1995. Click for more from the Cheboygan News.

Regional Roundup Merrill 66, Deckerville 22 The Vandals (6-1) opened their first 8-player playoffs with their highest-scoring game of the season, ending Deckerville’s season at 4-3. Gaylord St. Mary 86, Central Lake 54 By combining for 140 points, these teams earned a record book entry for fourth-highest scoring game in MHSAA 8-player history. Mesick 34, Vestaburg 0 The Bulldogs (5-2) won their first playoff game ever with their first shutout since last season. Mayville 48, Genesee 20 The Wildcats’ best season since at least the 1980s will continue as they earned a matchup with also-undefeated Adrian Lenawee Christian this week.  

Division 2 

HEADLINER Wyoming Tri-unity Christian 59, Burr Oak 18 The Bobcats (5-2) have to celebrate a season during which they tied their most wins since 1974. But the Defenders’ offense remains potent scoring nearly 43 points per game despite the team being only 3-4. And note, all four of those defeats came to teams in Division 1 or too large for the 8-player playoffs. Click for more from JoeInsider.com. 

Regional Roundup Lake Linden-Hubbell 48, Crystal Falls Forest Park 8 The Lakes (4-3) have gotten on the field for only five games, but they’ve made them count including with this big win over old rival Forest Park (4-2). Peck 30, Ashley 0 After losing 30-22 to the Bears (3-4) in Week 9, Peck (4-3) came back big a week later in the rematch. Colon 52, Climax-Scotts 14 The Magi (6-1) may have suffered a loss this season after a perfect 2019, but that hasn’t meant they’re done – especially considering that defeat came to Division 1 Lenawee Christian. Waldron 30, Tekonsha 6 The Spartans (5-2) nearly reversed a 28-point loss to Tekonsha (4-3) only three weeks ago. 

PHOTO: Marquette's Kameron Karp (23) is able to get by Muskegon Reeths-Puffer's Caden Brainard (8) but is taken down by Landon Mechem (32) at the 4-yard line during their Saturday matchup. (Photo by Cara Kamps.)