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Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012

October 24, 2012

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.

So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:

How would you have done so differently?

And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.

This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.

Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.

Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.

The process

Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.

That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.

In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.

Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.

Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.

Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.

There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”

Observations and answers

A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.

Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season. 

No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.

The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.

Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.

And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way. 

Their journeys begin Friday.

1st & Goal: Week 7 in Review

October 12, 2020

By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor

Yes, it’s true. We’re days from mid-October, with only two regular-season football games remaining, celebrating league champions and starting to look forward to the MHSAA Playoffs.

All of that has seemed to come on quickly this fall, but Week 7 provided us even more of what we’re used to enjoying every year.

In front of larger crowds at many stadiums, we watched the most unusual fall in a century continue to take shape – starting with a major southwestern matchup Thursday night and concluding Saturday with a few more indicators of what might be on the way as this season’s best contenders continue to rise.  

Bay & Thumb

HEADLINER Port Huron 20, Port Huron Northern 7 The Big Reds (4-0) added on to last year’s playoff-opener win over Northern by breaking a three-game regular-season losing streak versus the Huskies (2-1). In doing so, Port Huron clinched a share of the Macomb Area Conference Blue championship and can finish an outright run this week against winless Sterling Heights. Click for more from the Port Huron Times Herald.

Watch list North Branch 56, Richmond 7 This is two weeks straight for the Broncos (4-0), who have avenged both of their regular-season losses from last year and sit alone atop the Blue Water Area Conference standings.  

Remember this one Freeland 21, Saginaw Swan Valley 14 The Falcons (3-1) broke a four-game losing streak against the Vikings (2-2) and in doing so clinched a share of the Tri-Valley Conference Central title.

More shoutouts Reese 23, Elkton-Pigeon-Bay Port 20 The Rockets (1-3) made their first win count, upsetting Laker (3-1) and toppling it from a first-place tie in the Greater Thumb Conference West. Cass City 28, Unionville-Sebewaing 24 The Red Hawks, who don’t play Laker during this abbreviated season, were beneficiaries of that Reese upset and now sit atop the West together with only Bad Axe thanks also to this close win over USA (2-2).

Greater Detroit

HEADLINER Grosse Pointe South 21, Clinton Township Chippewa Valley 17 Joining one of the toughest leagues in the state hasn’t fazed newcomer Grosse Pointe South (3-1) this fall, as it showed against reigning champ Chippewa Valley (2-2). The Blue Devils find themselves tied with Macomb Dakota and Sterling Heights Stevenson for first place, and with Stevenson up next. Click for more from MLive-Detroit and see highlights below from State Champs Sports Network.

Watch list Clarkston 31, Lake Orion 7 The Wolves (4-0) continued their bounce back this fall by clinching a share of the Oakland Activities Association Red title while dealing the Dragons (2-1) their first defeat.

Remember this one Birmingham Seaholm 35, Birmingham Groves 28 Make that two in a row in this rivalry for Seaholm (3-1) after breaking a former seven-game losing streak to Groves (2-2) during last season’s playoffs.

More shoutouts Detroit Catholic Central 27, Orchard Lake St. Mary's 10 The Shamrocks (4-0) capped a perfect run through the Detroit Catholic League Central, holding their three league opponents to a combined 32 points. Rochester Hills Stoney Creek 23, Rochester Adams 10 The Cougars (4-0) defeated Adams (1-3) for the first time since 2014 and in doing so clinched a share of the OAA White championship.  

Mid-Michigan

HEADLINER Mason 42, Fowlerville 14 The Bulldogs (4-0) ran their regular-season winning streak to 15 and set up a Week 9 winner-takes-all with also-undefeated Williamston for the Capital Area Activities Conference Red championship. Mason put up its most points in a game this season and has now held its four opponents to a combined 43. Click for more from the Lansing State Journal.

Watch list Olivet 30, Lake Odessa Lakewood 6 The Eagles (4-0) extended their Greater Lansing Activities Conference winning streak to 18 while clinching a share of the league title – and with unbeaten Williamston up next for an intriguing nonleague matchup.

Remember this one DeWitt 43, Warren De La Salle Collegiate 3 The Panthers (4-0) already were off to another strong local start, but defeating the Pilots (1-3) on the road no doubt drew plenty of statewide eyes.  

More shoutouts Breckenridge 29, Carson City-Crystal 7 The Huskies (3-1) are 5-for-5 in the Mid-State Activities Conference, this win clinching their fifth title in five seasons playing in the league. Durand 20, Chesaning 14 The Railroaders (4-0) not only are off to their best start since 2016, but this was their first margin of victory smaller than 21 this fall.

Northern Lower Peninsula

HEADLINER Traverse City Central 57, Alpena 0 The Trojans (4-0) earned a share of a repeat championship in the Big North Conference, and how they’ve rumbled through league competition the last few years has been exceptional. Central has won 13 straight league games, going back nearly three full league seasons, and with the last 11 consecutive wins all by at least 24 points. Click for more from MI Sports Now.

Watch list Evart 34, Lake City 21 After opening 0-2, Evart (2-2) has won two weeks over opponents that last season outscored the Wildcats by a combined 64-12.

Remember this one Harbor Springs 57, Frankfort 22 The Rams (3-1) set themselves up to play Johannesburg-Lewiston in Week 9 for the Northern Michigan Football Conference Legacy title.

More shoutouts Oscoda 58, Blanchard Montabella 0 That the Owls are 4-0 isn’t super stunning coming off last year’s league title, but that they’ve yet to give up a point is impressive no matter the circumstances. East Jordan 48, Alcona 22 The Red Devils (3-1), counting the end of 2019, have won six of their last eight games.

Southeast & Border

HEADLINER Milan 24, New Boston Huron 7 A Week 5 loss to current leader Riverview has Milan (3-1) still trailing in the Huron League by a game with one to play. But the Big Reds hung on to a shared title hope by handing New Boston Huron (3-1) its first defeat. Click for more from the Monroe News.

Watch list Hillsdale 22, Brooklyn Columbia Central 21 Blissfield leads the Lenawee County Athletic Association, but Hillsdale (3-1) is tied with Week 9 opponent Clinton for second place as both hope for a Royals stumble.

Remember this one Michigan Center 36, Grass Lake 28 After two weeks off, Michigan Center (1-1) shook up the Cascades Conference standings, pulling Grass Lake (3-1) out of a tie for first place.

More shoutouts Adrian Madison 39, Morenci 22 The Trojans’ next two opponents are a combined 1-7, and if Madison gets to 5-1 it would guarantee its winningest season since 2009. Erie Mason 52, Britton Deerfield 12 The Eagles (4-0) won to set up a Tri-County Conference title match for this week with also-undefeated Sand Creek.

Southwest Corridor

HEADLINER Centreville 36, Mendon 0 The Bulldogs are well into a third season of impressive football after struggles through most of the last decade, and this might be one of the biggest wins in recent memory. Centreville traveled to Mendon and emerged in the matchup of unbeatens with a share of the Southwest 10 Conference championship and a second shutout in four games this fall. Click for more from the Sturgis Journal.

Watch list Battle Creek Harper Creek 28, Coldwater 7 This puts Harper Creek at only 1-2 in the Interstate 8 Athletic Conference, but dropped Coldwater into a mix of six teams that has one or two league defeats.

Remember this one Marshall 41, Parma Western 27 Having lost to two other league contenders close, Marshall (2-2) caused some I8AC juggling as well with this win over former lone league leader Western (3-1).

More shoutouts Buchanan 42, Comstock 7 The Bucks (4-0) inched closer to a possible Berrien-Cass-St. Joseph Conference title, now needing to win one of their final two regular-season games to clinch a share. Battle Creek Pennfield 28, Jackson Lumen Christi 20 The Panthers (2-2) hadn’t gotten within 15 points of Lumen Christi (2-2) during their first six meetings as part of the I8AC together.

Upper Peninsula

HEADLINER Kingsford 30, Gladstone 28 Getting a read on the Upper Peninsula pecking order is getting pretty difficult this fall, as Marquette, Sault Ste. Marie and Gladstone all have taken turns as the possible leader. Kingsford (3-1) is at least in the growing mix now coming off this close win – which also gave the Braves (2-1) three two-point games in three tries this season. Click for more from RRN Sports.

Watch list Sault Ste. Marie 34, Benzie Central 13 The Blue Devils (3-1) bounced back from their two-point Week 6 loss to Gladstone by sending Benzie Central to 2-2.

Remember this one Marquette 44, Menominee 26 That’s two Marquette wins over the rival Maroons (2-2) over four weeks, this one giving Marquette (3-1) a share of the Great Northern Conference title.

More shoutouts Gwinn 14, Norway 12 The Modeltowners (2-2) avenged a 28-20 loss from a year ago. Ishpeming Westwood 55, L'Anse 15 The Patriots (3-1) gave up a forfeit to open the season but haven’t lost since.

West Michigan

HEADLINER Byron Center 36, Lowell 22 The Bulldogs (4-0) became the lone leaders atop a strong Ottawa-Kent Conference White, adding a pair of fourth-quarter touchdowns to hold off the Red Arrows in another matchup of previously-undefeated teams. Lowell (3-1) pulled within seven late before Byron Center added one more score. See highlights below from WZZM.

Watch list Muskegon Catholic Central 40, Manistee 0 The Crusaders (4-0) clinched a share of the Lakes 8 Athletic Conference championship in dominating fashion, shutting out Manistee (3-1) for the second-straight season.

Remember this one Reed City 70, Newaygo 40 This one will reach the record book as offense reigned and Reed City (4-0) held on to its lead in the Central State Activities Association Gold.

More shoutouts Grand Rapids South Christian 32, Cedar Springs 14 The Sailors (4-0) join Week 9 opponent Grand Rapids Catholic Central alone atop the O-K Gold as both have claimed wins over Cedar Springs (2-2). Hopkins 34, Belding 28 The Vikings (4-0) are leaders alone in the O-K White after handing Belding (3-1) its lone defeat.

8-Player

HEADLINER Mayville 58, Deckerville 54 As noted in Friday’s preview, Mayville has seemed like a program on the verge of this level of win. The Wildcats (4-0) not only avenged last season’s 44-12 loss to the Eagles (3-1) but they ended Deckerville’s 18-game regular-season winning streak while staying tied for first in the North Central Thumb League Stars. Click for more from the Huron Daily Tribune.

Watch list Pellston 34, Gaylord St. Mary 28 While the Ski Valley Conference standings will be unbalanced because of the abbreviated schedule, Pellston (4-0) absolutely has earned its status as at least a co-champion by finishing its league slate with an impressive win over the Snowbirds (3-1).

Remember this one Bridgman 34, New Buffalo 20 Five teams in the Southwestern Michigan 8-man Football League have one conference loss, with Bridgman (3-1) handing New Buffalo (3-1) its first.

More shoutouts Morrice 56, Genesee 14 As the NCTL Stars reshuffled in part because of Mayville/Deckerville over the weekend, the Orioles (4-0) joined Mayville among undefeated teams in the league by handing Genesee (3-1) its first defeat. Munising 28, Stephenson 14 The Eagles (3-1) don’t lose a step in their Great Lakes Eight West race, but Munising (4-0) impressed again in remaining undefeated.

PHOTO: Fremont earned its first win this season in Week 6, defeating Remus Chippewa Hills 42-26. (Click to see more from HighSchoolSportsScene.com.)