Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012
October 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.
So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:
How would you have done so differently?
And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.
This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.
Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.
Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.
Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.
There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”
Observations and answers
A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.
Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season.
No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.
The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.
Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.
And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way.
Their journeys begin Friday.
P-W Triumphs in Clash of Unbeatens
November 30, 2019
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
DETROIT – This week was the right time for Carter Thelen to pull out the film from sixth grade, to remember the start of this year’s seniors playing football together a third of their lifetimes ago.
“It was kinda emotional, because this was our last game playing with each other,” Thelen said Saturday after that final game was complete. “Just thinking back to when we kept blowing everybody out in sixth grade and seventh grade and eighth grade. Coach was saying how it was the last game for us seniors … (it was) emotionally sad, but physically it pushed me to go out and be better in practice and stay locked in and push everybody else.”
Every ounce of that focus and every ounce of that push was necessary Saturday as the Pirates faced Jackson Lumen Christi and its 35-game winning streak in the Division 7 Final at Ford Field.
The teams entered with five MHSAA Finals championship over the last three seasons between them, and P-W emerged with the sixth over four, coming out just ahead in a physical matchup 14-0 to claim its third Division 7 title in four years to go with those won in 2016 and 2017. Lumen Christi had won the last three Division 6 championships before moving into Division 7 for this playoffs as one of seven undefeated teams in that 32-team field to start the postseason.
Their matchup indeed was 48 minutes of tug of war. P-W gained 119 yards, and Lumen Christi had 109 as both averaged 2.3 per play. The Pirates (14-0) were held under 35 points for just the second time this season, to go with a 14-0 Week 1 victory over Friday’s Division 8 champion Reading. Lumen Christi hadn’t been shut out since a 2010 playoff loss.
“They’re the three-time defending Division 6 state champs, and they are obviously one of the storied programs in the state of Michigan,” P-W coach Jeremy Miller said. “And when you’re going up against them, you have to execute. So to do it against a quality opponent like that is obviously just a tremendous credit to our kids.”
P-W scored its first touchdown when senior Aaron Bearss pulled in a pass from senior Ethan Thelen with three seconds left in the first half after a Bearss interception gave the Pirates an opportunity at the Titans’ 40-yard line with 27 seconds remaining in the half.
After nearly 22 more minutes of back-and-forth, the Pirates locked up the title on Carter Thelen’s 16-yard scoring run with 2:16 to play, as he burst through the middle of the line and shucked two Lumen Christi defenders at the 1 before gliding into the end zone.
The Titans (12-1) reached P-W territory on three of their 10 possessions, but only inside the 35 once – and that drive ended with a missed field-goal attempt 10 seconds into the second quarter. The three straight Lumen championships saw at least one runner gain at least 200 yards (and in 2017 two did so). Senior Walker Plate entered Saturday averaging almost exactly 200 yards per game rushing this season, but was held to just 49 on 22 carries as the team rushed for only 80 total. Lumen also completed just 6-of-16 passes for 29 yards.
“They were really physical up front, and they played eight men in the box – but we’ve seen that all year long,” Titans coach Herb Brogan said. “We’ve been able to take advantage of what that gives you, and we couldn’t do that today.”
P-W senior lineman John Martin and Lumen senior defensive end Matt Saunders led their respective defenses with 11 tackles apiece. Lumen Christi had 12 tackles for loss, including five by junior Brody Dalton. Senior linebacker Grant Stump added eight more tackles for the Pirates.
Sophomore Tanner Wirth led P-W 63 yards rushing on 23 carries, pushing past 1,600 yards on the year as he stepped in for his senior brother Hunter, who missed the entire season after tearing a knee ligament during the summer. Ethan Thelen completed 5-of-11 passes for 52 yards and a score, two years after tearing a knee ligament as well in his final game sophomore year.
Carter Thelen said this year’s P-W team was defined by how it pushed the pile in short-yardage situations and others when a full team effort was necessary. How the Pirates emerged from those two potentially success-stopping injuries on the way to a second-straight perfect regular season, defeating two unbeaten teams on the way to Ford Field – reigning champion New Lothrop and Iron Mountain – and then winning one of the most power-packed Finals this decade only seemed to back up Thelen’s analogy.
“It’s every time we get in the moment,” Thelen said. “Everybody goes behind and tries to push the pile.
“We’re stronger than them and we’ve got more heart, and that pile just keeps going our way.”
PHOTOS: (Top) Pewamo-Westphalia’s Grant Stump (22) and Aaron Bearss celebrate during Saturday’s Division 7 Final. (Middle) Bearss locks in on what will be a second-quarter touchdown catch.