Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012
October 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.
So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:
How would you have done so differently?
And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.
This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.
Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.
Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.
Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.
There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”
Observations and answers
A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.
Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season.
No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.
The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.
Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.
And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way.
Their journeys begin Friday.
Drive for Detroit: 11-Player Semis Preview
November 22, 2019
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
The "Drive for Detroit" will take one last turn this weekend on the way to the final destination for 16 teams fortunate enough to finish this fall at Ford Field.
This season's Semifinal field is a mix of teams that have made this trip plenty of times in the past – along with a few traveling this path for the first time, or the first time in a long while.
We're expecting great weather across most of the state, so find a seat in the bleachers and root on your favorite team. But if you’d rather watch from the comforts of home, this weekend we again will have all 16 Semifinals available, either on FOXSportsDetroit.com or MHSAA.tv. (Click for the full schedule.)
All games are 1 p.m. Saturday unless noted. “Drive for Detroit” is powered by MI Student Aid
Division 1
Belleville (12-0) vs. Brighton (10-2) at Howell High School
For the second straight season, Belleville is one more win from reaching the Finals for the first time. Junior quarterback Christian Dhue-Reid (2,706 yards/33 TDs passing) has led a return Semifinal march that’s seen the Tigers go unbeaten since falling in last year’s Semifinal to eventual champion Clinton Township Chippewa Valley. Brighton also is playing to reach its first championship game in this sport and also follows a dynamic quarterback in senior Colby Newburg (1,140 yards/17 TDs rushing, 1,319 yards/17 TDs passing).
Davison (10-2) vs. Sterling Heights Stevenson (8-4) at Troy Athens
The Cardinals are playing in their fifth Semifinal and for their first trip to a championship game. Davison is riding the arm of another quarterback getting a lot of attention – junior Brendan Sullivan has thrown for 2,635 yards and 31 touchdowns and run for eight more scores. Stevenson will be the third team from the vaunted Macomb Area Conference Red to see Davison this playoffs. The Titans are one of the state’s best comeback stories coming off three straight sub-.500 seasons. They have a number of versatile weapons, among them senior running back Nick Wingfield (1,018 yards/15 TDs rushing), as they seek their first Finals trip since 2009.
Division 2
Walled Lake Western (11-1) vs. Muskegon Mona Shores (10-2) at Okemos
The Warriors are a Week 3 three-point loss to Orchard Lake St. Mary’s from undefeated this fall as they seek their second trip to Ford Field in four seasons. Quarterback Zach Trainor (2,685 yards/32 TDs passing) to receiver Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen (1,443 yards/18 TDs receiving) has been one of the state’s top scoring combinations. Mona Shores will need to slow Western down to return to Ford Field after finishing Division 2 runner-up a year ago. The Sailors will counter with an attack led by running back Tre Hatcher (1,257 yards/12 TDs rushing) and veteran quarterback Caden Broersma (406 yards/10 TDs rushing, 908 yards/11 TDs passing).
Detroit Martin Luther King (10-2) vs. Birmingham Seaholm (9-3) at Novi, 3 p.m.
Despite moving back to Division 2 after winning Division 3 a year ago, King will play in its fifth straight Semifinal and is riding a 10-game winning streak after early losses to Detroit Catholic Central and Muskegon. Freshman Dante Moore (2,240 yards/30 TDs) has more than fulfilled preseason media build-up, and senior Peny Boone (903 yards/15 touchdowns) is regarded as one of the top backs in the state. Seaholm is seeking its first championship game berth and playing its first Semifinal since 1997. Chaz Strecker has carried the load with 1,493 yards and 20 touchdowns for a Maples team approaching nearly 4,000 yards on the ground.
Division 3
Muskegon (12-0) vs. DeWitt (10-2) at East Kentwood
Muskegon has appeared on a mission since falling to King in last season’s Division 3 Final, and senior quarterback Cameron Martinez (1,735 yards/32 TDs rushing, 1,122 yards/10 TDs passing) again has led the charge. The only team to come within 20 points of the Big Reds this season was East Grand Rapids in Week 3, and Muskegon won the rematch last week 49-10. But DeWitt as a program has more experience at this level of the playoffs than most in the state, and the Panthers are coming off a 35-14 win over Edwardsburg that ended the reigning Division 4 champion’s winning streak at 25. The Panthers haven’t given up more than 15 points in a game since Week 5, and senior quarterback Andrew Schorfaar leads the team both in passing (1,458 yards/18 TDs) and rushing (1,058/14).
Chelsea (12-0) vs. River Rouge (11-1) at Dearborn
Chelsea has advanced to MHSAA Finals in both Divisions 3 and 4 over the last five years. The Bulldogs have won three games by seven points or fewer this playoffs to come within another victory of a second-straight trip to Ford Field after finishing Division 4 runners-up a year ago. A steady defense gives up just more than 12 points per game, while running back Brennan Van Riper (952 yards/13 TDs rushing) is among a number of offensive options. Rouge has won 11 straight since falling by three in its opener to Division 4 contender Grand Rapids Catholic Central and will play in its fourth Semifinal in five years. Running back Deandre Bulley (1,820 yards/20 TDs) has been tough to bring down at 6-foot-2, 245 pounds, and quarterback Mareyohn Hrabowski has reached 1,000 yards both rushing and passing. Meanwhile, the defense is giving up just 8.3 points per game.
Division 4
Grand Rapids Catholic Central (11-1) vs. Hudsonville Unity Christian (9-3) at Jenison
The Cougars are playing in their fourth-straight Semifinal and seeking their third championship game trip during this string after missing out last year with a two-point loss to Edwardsburg. GRCC is unbeaten in-state this fall, with its lone loss to a team from Illinois. Quarterback Joey Silveri drives the offense, throwing for 2,491 yards and 31 touchdowns and running for 704 yards and 13 scores. But Unity Christian has plenty of experience at this level too coming off last season’s Division 5 championship. Running back Malekhi Obande is averaging nearly 10 yards per carry (1,311 total, with 14 TDs rushing), and like GRCC the Crusaders won their first three playoff games all by at least three touchdowns.
Detroit Country Day (12-0) vs. Flint Powers Catholic (10-2) at Howell Parker Middle School
The Yellowjackets are playing in their fourth Semifinal in six seasons and advanced after handing Milan its only loss this season last week. The defense shined again, giving up just six points, which actually upped its average to 5.6 points given up per game. On the other side of the ball, running back Anthony Ammori (822 yards/14 TDs) leads a rushing attack that’s gained more than 2,200 yards. Powers’ defense during the regular season against much larger opponents in the Saginaw Valley League Blue didn’t stand out, but during the playoffs the Chargers have given up only 28 points over three games. Quarterback Luke Phillpotts has run and passed both for more than 700 yards to lead the team in both categories.
Division 5
Kingsley (12-0) vs. Lansing Catholic (11-1) at Greenville
Kingsley has won all of its games by double digits including in Week 7 against Division 6 semifinalist Maple City Glen Lake, and eliminated unbeaten Muskegon Oakridge in a 17-point win two weeks ago. Running backs Ayden Mullin (1,451 yards/21 TDs rushing) and Owen Graves (713 yards/12 TDs) are both averaging more than nine yards per carry as the team works toward making the Finals for the first time since 2005. But Lansing Catholic, now free of rival Portland after falling to the Raiders the last two District Finals, is aiming for its first Ford Field trip since 2014 with its most productive offense since that season. Quarterback Zach Gillespie has thrown for 2,247 yards and 24 touchdowns and run for another 18 scores.
Almont (12-0) vs. Detroit Denby (10-2) at Walled Lake Central
The Raiders have put together a 22-1 run over the last two seasons as they seek their first trip to the Finals. Almont long has been known for defense, and this year’s unit is giving up just 10 points per game. But the offense has reached 500 points for the first time since 2014 with four rushers gaining at least 500 yards and quarterback Josh Hellebuyck providing a nice complement with 1,194 yards and 22 TDs through the air. Denby also is seeking its first Finals berth, while playing in its first Semifinal, and has lost this season to only King, twice. The Tars have given up only 97 points this season – and subtract the King losses, they are allowing only 3.8 points per game.
Division 6
Maple City Glen Lake (11-1) vs. Montague (10-2) at Clare
Glen Lake’s only defeat this season was to Kingsley, as noted above, and the Lakers are seeking their second trip to Ford Field in four years. After dominating most of the regular season, Glen Lake has won close the last three weeks – with that experience possibly paying off in what’s sure to be a challenging matchup with last season’s Division 6 runner-up. Quarterback Reece Hazelton towers over most defenders at 6-6 and has thrown for 1,012 yards and 14 touchdowns, with Jonathan Wright adding 1,112 yards and 17 scores on the ground for the Lakers. Montague quarterback Drew Collins started during last season’s run and is starring with 2,354 yards and 27 TDs passing and 663 yards and 14 scores rushing.
Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central (10-1) vs. Onsted (10-2) at Ypsilanti Lincoln
The Falcons opened this decade with three Semifinal appearances over the first five years, and will close with one more thanks in part to a defense that hasn’t given up more than 16 points since Week 3. St. Mary also has scored its most points since its championship season of 2014 despite playing one fewer game so far than the last two years (because of an open date). Alex Morgan leads that effort with 1,571 yards and 16 touchdowns rushing. Onsted has made its first Semifinal since 1993 by avenging losses to Blissfield and formerly-undefeated Hillsdale during the playoffs. The Wildcats finished only 3-6 a year ago but have rebounded in part because of a ground attack featuring two 1,000-yard rushers, Travis Hill (1,312 yards/14 TDs) and Rourke Barth (1,025/16).
Division 7
Iron Mountain (12-0) vs. Pewamo-Westphalia (12-0) at the Superior Dome, 7 p.m. Friday
Pewamo-Westphalia will see its second-straight undefeated opponent after handing the first and only loss of the season last week to reigning champion New Lothrop. Iron Mountain won a league that sent four teams total to the playoffs and also has won all of its playoff games by at least two scores. Caleb Evosivich-Hynes is the team’s leading rusher (1,289 yards/12 TDs) and receiver (435/8), catching passes from quarterback and also basketball standout Marcus Johnson (1,037 yards/14 TDs passing). The Pirates got up big on New Lothrop before holding off the Hornets down the stretch to win by a point 36-35, but otherwise P-W has locked down all of its opponents, giving up only 56 points on the season. Expect to see the ball often in running back Tanner Wirth’s hands, as he has run for nearly 10 yards per carry and 1,499 and 24 touchdowns overall.
Jackson Lumen Christi (11-0) vs. Cass City (11-1) at Novi, 11 a.m.
The Titans have won 24 straight games and the last three Division 6 championships, and they impressed in a major test last week holding off Schoolcraft 35-30. It’s hardly a surprise that Lumen Christi runs the ball well – the latest in its string of star runners is Walker Plate, who has rushed for 2,279 yards and 31 touchdowns. Cass City is playing in its first Semifinal boasting a defense that has given up only 52 points all year – and just two over three playoff games. The Red Hawks have given up more than eight points only once, in a two-point opening-night loss to Montrose.
Division 8
Beal City (11-1) vs. Ubly (10-2) at Mount Pleasant
Both of these teams have reached the Semifinals previously this decade, Beal City most recently in 2014 and Ubly in 2016. Both also bounced back from late losses this time to make their runs – Beal City against McBain and Ubly to Cass City (see Division 7 above). Beal City has gained more than 3,200 yards this season showing impressive balance with no one rushing for more than 750 or throwing for more than 450. Ubly has four backs with at least 600 yards rushing, but the main ball carrier for an offense with nearly 4,300 yards total is Carson Heleski (1,447 yards/19 TDs rushing).
Reading (11-1) vs. Fowler (11-1) at Battle Creek Harper Creek
There are a lot of similarities in how these two small-school powers conduct business on the field. Fowler, in its first Semifinal since reaching the Division 8 championship game in 2011, has for decades been known for its powerful running. This season that’s come in the forms of Kyle Snyder (1,481 yards/21 TDs rushing) and Caiden Pung (1,222 yards/21 TDs). Reading rode the same to last season’s Division 8 title and is back in the hunt led by Hunter Midtgard (1,212 yards/15 TDs) among others running behind 6-3, 307-pound Nick Affholter. The key may be who stops whom; the Rangers have given up only 79 points, and the Eagles only 137.
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PHOTO: Beal City's Logan Chilman (10) breaks away from an Ishpeming's Dawson Delongchamp during last weekend's Division 8 Regional Final win. (Photo by Cara Kamps.)