Inside Selection Sunday: Mapnalysis 2012
October 24, 2012
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
Between double checking data for more than a third of our 626 football teams, and creating 136 first-round games for our most popular tournament, the morning of MHSAA football "Selection Sunday" is both one of the most exciting and nerve-wracking of the school year.
So for those scratching their heads the last few days over how we picked the brackets this season, I offer one question and one warning:
How would you have done so differently?
And before you answer, remember that moving the position of one school affects at least seven more – if not all 32 in that division.
This was the second year I was involved in the football selection process, which while appearing simple on its face actually is layered with hours of discussions, calculations, checking and re-checking, and anything else we at the MHSAA can do to make sure we’ve created the best tournament possible.
Simply put, it’s more than just drawing circles and calling them good.
Below are a brief description of what we do, the history behind the process, and some challenges we face each time we draw these brackets – including some examples of our toughest this time around.
The process
Our past: The MHSAA playoff structure – with 256 teams in eight divisions, and six wins equaling an automatic berth – debuted in 1999. An 8-player tournament was added in 2011, resulting in nine champions total when November is done.
That’s a long way from our start. The first playoffs were conducted in 1975 with four champions. Four more football classes were added in 1990 for a total of eight champions each fall. Through 1998, only 128 teams made the postseason, based on their playoff point averages within regions (four for each class) that were drawn before the beginning of the season. The drawing of Districts and Regions after the end of the regular season did not begin until the most recent playoff expansion.
In early years of the current process (or until the middle of the last decade), lines were drawn by hand. Dots representing qualifying schools were pasted on maps, one map for each division, and those maps were then covered by plastic sheets. Districts and Regionals literally were drawn with dry-erase markers.
Our present: After a late Saturday night tracking scores, we file in as the sun rises Sunday morning for a final round of gathering results we may still need (which can include making a few early a.m. calls to athletic directors). Then comes re-checking and triple-checking of enrollments, co-ops, some records and more before the numbers are crunched and the field of 256 is set.
Those teams are then split into eight equal divisions based on enrollment, and their locations are marked on digital maps that are projected on wall-size screens and then discussed by nearly half of the MHSAA staff plus a representative from the Michigan High School Football Coaches Association. Only the locations themselves are marked (by yellow dots) – not records, playoff points averages or names of the schools or towns. In fact, mentions of those are strictly prohibited. Records and playoff points are not part of the criteria. Matchups, rivalries, previous playoff pairings, etc. also DO NOT come into play.
Geography rules: Drawing Districts and Regionals is all about location. Travel distance and ease DO come into play. Yes, ease is important. Schools near the same major highway might be further from each other in mileage than other options but have a better trip. A good example this year is in Division 6, which has seven teams in the U.P. and the northern Lower Peninsula. That meant Shelby needed to be included with those teams to make eight, and left Montague to a District that includes Hemlock – more than halfway across the Lower Peninsula. But at least, in this case, much of that trip will be on one roadway, M-46.
There is certainly conversation about every possible option. The staff splits into two groups, each handling four divisions (plus one of the groups handles 8-player too), and then the entire committee comes together to view all nine maps. There wasn’t one division where the group as a whole said, “That looks great, what’s next?”
Observations and answers
A different ballgame: I was asked whatever happened to Districts, meaning teams opening with opponents nearby. Remember that with eight divisions and 32 teams in each, the difference between maximum and minimum enrollments for each division is smaller than it used to be with just four classes, and the probability of finding two schools in the same division next door to each other is lower. This is especially true for our smaller schools, and those pairings are more spread out. Division 7 provides an excellent example. Opponents Dansville and Ottawa Lake Whiteford are 84 miles apart. But in another option considered, Dansville would’ve played Gobles – and those two are separated by 114 miles.
Points still matter: And that means strength of schedule is a big factor. After Districts are drawn, playoff point average determines the home team for those two games and Regionals as well. There are five Districts in which the team with the best or second-best record did not get home games because those teams’ playoff point averages ranked third among the four teams in those brackets. A number of other Districts have 8-1 teams playing at other 8-1 teams. It’s true: there are times a school can’t help the opponents it plays, because of league affiliation perhaps, and they have no control over how an opponent does the rest of the season. But a Class B team playing in a league with Class D schools can’t expect to compare averages well against teams in their division who face similarly-sized opponents during the regular season.
No boating: This didn’t come up last season, but did twice Sunday. We had to decide if it was a better trip for teams in the thumb to go around Saginaw Bay to play northern opponents, or instead send teams a little bit south of the thumb but with a straight shots north. As the bird flies, the thumb teams were closer in some cases. But I’ve never heard of a team hopping into a boat to get to a playoff game.
The fifth wheels: The toughest lines to draw are around areas with five schools in the same division. Remember, Districts come in fours, and one dot affects the rest. The Grand Rapids area gave us tough calls because of five teams in Divisions 2 and 4. The same was true in the southwest corner in Division 7 and the southeast corner in Division 6. No matter how we circled it, one of those teams got stuck with a longer trip. This time, that group included Caledonia, Grand Rapids South Christian, Blissfield and Gobles.
It’s easy to say certain areas of these maps should’ve been drawn differently. But again, keep in mind a statewide view.
Some of our pairings could create gigantic matchups earlier in the playoffs than those teams might like. But again, who is to decide which teams are the best and which matchups most “gigantic” before they prove it on the field? At least three teams touted during this fall as potentially the best in the state this season didn’t even win their conference titles.
And as I said in this analysis last year, determining the playoff schedule is just one step in many. Nine MHSAA champions must survive until the end, regardless of which opponents they face along the way.
Their journeys begin Friday.
Drive for Detroit: Week 8 Preview
October 17, 2019
By Geoff Kimmerly
Second Half editor
How much should fans enjoy the final two weeks of this football regular season?
There are 93 leagues for the sport statewide, and 35 championships remain completely up for grabs. Another 35 leagues have had one team clinch a share of the title but still have the possibility for another to join the celebration.
And the playoff picture is similarly a slightly-filled canvas. A total of 346 teams (out of 531 total) remain eligible for at least an additional qualifier berth in the 256-team 11-player field. A total of 110 teams have secured their spots – but 86 more teams can clinch with a win this week.
On the 8-player side, the 32 playoff spots will remain in flux through Week 9 – and it looks like up to 55 teams still have a chance to make that field.
Below again is a look at many games that will tilt these numbers this weekend. The MHSAA.tv live streaming schedule includes 33 games – click for the full listing and links to each game. All games below are Friday unless noted.
"Drive for Detroit" is sponsored by MI Student Aid.
Bay & Thumb
Marine City (7-0) at Marysville (5-2)
The Mariners handed St. Clair its lone league loss last week to earn a share of the Macomb Area Conference Silver title, and will finish the league schedule against the other team tied for second in Marysville. If the Vikings are able to break a two-game losing streak in this series, it will create a three-way shared Silver championship. But they will have to crack a Marine City defense giving up just 8.4 points per game.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Fenton (6-1) at Goodrich (6-1), Flint Powers Catholic (5-2) at Grand Blanc (5-2), Bloomfield Hills Brother Rice (5-2) at Lapeer (6-1), Montrose (6-1) at Byron (5-2).
Greater Detroit
Romeo (6-1) at Clinton Township Chippewa Valley (7-0)
For the second straight season, Chippewa Valley enters this Macomb Area Conference Red finale with a perfect record and Romeo has a chance to break up the league title with a win. The Bulldogs and Utica Eisenhower are tied for second, one game behind the Big Reds, and Romeo fell only 41-34 last season in giving Chippewa Valley one of the toughest games of its undefeated Division 1 championship run.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Royal Oak Shrine (6-1) at Clarkston Everest Collegiate (6-0), Clawson (4-3) at Clinton Township Clintondale (5-2), Farmington (7-0) at North Farmington (7-0), Belleville (7-0) at Livonia Franklin (6-1), Detroit Catholic Central (4-3) at River Rouge (6-1).
Mid-Michigan
Fowler (7-0) at Pewamo-Westphalia (7-0)
This season has been a little unfair to the Eagles, and be sure they’ll use that as motivation tonight. It’s hard to not talk about Pewamo-Westphalia – a lot – when the Pirates are outscoring their opponents by a combined 312-14 with five shutouts, including one over reigning Division 8 champion Reading (which is otherwise averaging 52 points per game). But a few miles over from that all-out domination, rival Fowler is outscoring its opponents 295-70, giving up more than 13 points in a game just once, and with a chance to take the Central Michigan Athletic Conference title outright if they get past the rival Pirates for the first time since 2014.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Portland (7-0) at Mason (7-0), St. Joseph (6-1) at DeWitt (5-2), Fowlerville (6-1) at Lansing Catholic (6-1), Olivet (7-0) at Williamston (4-3).
Northern Lower Peninsula
Maple City Glen Lake (6-1) at Charlevoix (5-2)
The leaders of the Northern Michigan Football League Leaders division will meet for the outright championship tonight. A win would give Glen Lake its third straight league title, and of course it would be celebrated – especially bouncing back from last week’s loss to Kingsley. But a win for Charlevoix would be historic; the Rayders not only would clinch a first playoff berth since 2016, but the league title would be the program’s first since 1987 and after a number of runner-up finishes over the years. Glen Lake has won the last six meetings between these teams, including three over the last three years in NMFL play.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Breckenridge (6-1) at Oscoda (7-0), Beal City (7-0) at McBain (4-3), Johannesburg-Lewiston (7-0) at Frankfort (3-4), Ogemaw Heights (5-2) at Grayling (3-4).
Southeast & Border
Milan (7-0) at Carleton Airport (5-2)
Milan claimed a share of the Huron League championship last week. And although third-place Airport can’t win a share as well whatever happens tonight, second-place Monroe St. Mary Catholic Central surely is cheering the Jets on. Milan has won the last eight against Airport, including once in the playoffs, but four of those games were decided by eight or fewer points – including last season’s when the Big Reds won 35-30.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Ann Arbor Pioneer (4-3) at Saline (6-1), Manchester (5-2) at Grass Lake (6-1), Britton Deerfield (4-3) at Ottawa Lake Whiteford (4-3), Jackson (5-2) at Pinckney (5-2).
Southwest Corridor
Kalamazoo United (4-3) at Constantine (5-2)
As we consider what United will try to accomplish over the next two weeks – defeating Constantine and then unbeaten Schoolcraft to earn a third-straight playoff berth and repeat as Southwestern Athletic Conference Valley champion – it’s important to keep in mind the Titans’ start this fall. They began 0-3 – but the first loss was by two to still-unbeaten Jackson Lumen Christi, and the third defeat by just nine to still-undefeated Berrien Springs. Constantine is in a similar place, however – its losses to Berrien Springs and Schoolcraft were by a combined eight points.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Muskegon Catholic Central (4-2) at Benton Harbor (4-3), Parma Western (5-2) at Marshall (4-3), White Pigeon (6-1) at Mendon (6-1), Dowagiac (4-3) at Vicksburg (5-2).
Upper Peninsula
Traverse City Central (6-1) at Escanaba (6-1)
The Eskymos’ chances of getting some help to climb back into the Great Northern Conference title race are getting slimmer by the week as a three-point Week 4 loss to Marquette still stands as the lone decider for first in that league. But Escanaba can continue to gear up for the playoffs and a run at a fourth-straight District title, and playing much larger Central is a great way to get ready. The Trojans have clinched a share of the Big North Conference title and haven’t lost since Week 1. Interestingly, their six-game winning streak started against Marquette – and they’d surely love to go 2-0 against the GNC’s best after falling to Escanaba by 17 a year ago.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Hancock (4-3) at Calumet (6-1), Iron Mountain (7-0) at L’Anse (4-3), Kingsford (4-3) at Menominee (4-3), Lake Linden-Hubbell (4-3) at Bark River-Harris (5-2).
West Michigan
Muskegon (7-0) at Muskegon Mona Shores (6-1)
Championships could be decided all over the Ottawa-Kent Conference this weekend, but this annual matchup in the Black always is one of the most-hyped games in the state and again deserves lots of attention after both teams reached Ford Field last season. Since falling in the 2018 Division 3 Final, Muskegon has been challenged only by East Grand Rapids in a five-point Week 3 win. The reigning Division 2 runner-up Sailors fell to still-unbeaten Rockford by 13 in Week 4 but otherwise have won all of their games by at least 20 points. The Big Reds have won the last four in this series, and regardless of the outcome this latest chapter will be entertaining – the total points scored has increased every game over the last four, with Muskegon winning 55-35 in 2018.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Rockford (7-0) at Grandville (6-1), Ravenna (6-1) at Muskegon Oakridge (7-0), Grand Rapids Christian (5-2) at East Grand Rapids (5-2), Byron Center (7-0) vs. Hudsonville Unity Christian (5-2) at Hope College.
8-Player
Deckerville (7-0) at Kingston (6-1)
A share of the North Central Thumb League Blue championship goes to the victor, and in Deckerville’s case would guarantee a fourth consecutive league title. Two of the last five years this matchup determined the league champion, and a third time Kingston defeated Morrice to help Deckerville take back a share of first place after falling to the Orioles a week earlier in 2017. The Eagles have won all 12 against the Cardinals since the teams began playing each other regularly in 2010, including a pair of victories last season as they also met in the playoffs.
Keep an eye on these: FRIDAY Burr Oak (5-2) at Climax-Scotts (6-1), Onekama (5-2) at Suttons Bay (7-0). SATURDAY Morrice (7-0) vs. Crystal Falls Forest Park (5-2) at Pickford, Mio (7-0) at Gaylord St. Mary (2-5).
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PHOTO: Mason works the ground game during a 21-14 league title-deciding win over Fowlerville on Oct. 4. (Click to see more from High School Sports Scene.)